Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Defensive Morons

Well the Bengals lost last night, mostly because the defensive coordinator is a moron. After watching 14 games this season, anyone could tell you that the Bengals front 4 is not good enough to get a consistent pass rush. But at no time did I see the Bengals try to blitz with any regularity. What’s more, the linebackers and corners dropped and covered deep, routinely leaving the 5-8 yard dump pass over the middle open. So Peyton Manning and co. dinked and dunked the Bengals to death. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer never got into a rhythm due to the offense’s strong desire to push the Colts run defense. They did that well, but Palmer never got comfortable and the O-line could not contain the Colts pass rush.

All told, this vaults three games into the spotlight to see who makes the AFC playoffs: New England at Jacksonville, Cincinnati at Denver, and NY Jets at Miami on Monday night. Denver plays San Francisco in its final game so if the Broncos beat the Bengals, Denver is almost sure to finish 10-6 and get in. Likewise for the Jets: they play Oakland at home in the last game so if they beat the Dolphins, they will finish at 10-6 and make the playoffs. Jacksonville finishes the season at Kansas City and they play terrible on the road so if the Jaguars lose to New England, they are almost sure to finish the season at 8-8. Even if they win against New England, losing to Kansas City would mean a 9-7 finish with a 6-6 record against the AFC, probably not good enough to get in.

Then you have the morass with the Bengals. If the Bengals beat Denver, they are almost guaranteed to get in, even if they lose to the Steelers the following week (assuming Jacksonville loses one of their last two games) as they will have the head to head against Denver and a better AFC record than Jacksonville. They would only be threatened if Buffalo wins their last two games to also finish 9-7 with a 7-5 record against the AFC. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents with a minimum of 4, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule. But, Buffalo closes out the season against Baltimore and the Ravens might still be playing hard to try and get the #1 or #2 seed. If the Bengals lose to Denver, they will need the Jets to lose to Miami or Oakland to have a shot as well as have Jacksonville go down and win against Pittsburgh.

So, I think the Jets will get in and the winner of Cincinnati – Denver will get in. How the seeds will shake out is still up in the air and it looks like the three top seeds will have to keep fighting it out to see who gets the #1 and #2 seeds.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Playoff Mists

Continuing with our series of football updates, San Diego is moving more and more into the team to beat. If the Bengals manage to beat Indianapolis tonight (and that’s a big if), San Diego will secure a first-round bye. Unfortunately for them, they have to keep playing their A-list players even if Indy loses because Baltimore keeps winning and Baltimore would have the tiebreaker if the two clubs finish the season tied. So, in order to secure the #1 seed, San Diego has to finish the season one game up on Baltimore and given Baltimore’s schedule, that could mean that San Diego must finish at 14-2 to Baltimore’s 13-3. Fortunately, San Diego finishes up against some pud opponents (Seattle and Arizona). As such, it seems very likely that San Diego and Baltimore will be your #1 and #2 seeds.

Indianapolis won the AFC South by virtue of Jacksonville’s loss to Tennessee. New England vented its anger against Houston and will probably try to complete the righting of the ship against Jacksonville next weekend. However, Jacksonville plays very well at home so don’t expect a cakewalk for the Pats. Plus, New England finishes the season against the surging Titans. The Patriots will probably win at least one of these games and secure the AFC East, but they are going to have a tough go of it. With Indy freefalling at the moment due to injuries, these two teams are virtual locks for the #3 and #4 seeds. Given that Indy has the tiebreaker and a game against Houston next week, I think Indy will hold the #3 seed, regardless of what happens tonight.

That leaves the wild cards. The Bengals can take a commanding position if they beat Indianapolis tonight. The Bengals win percentage against the AFC is better than all other wild card contenders at the moment. If they win, they will also be a full game up on Denver, Jacksonville, and the Jets. Denver has the next best record and currently holds the #6 seed. Jacksonville has the tiebreaker against the Jets, but the Jets’ schedule allows them hope of getting in if Cincinnati, Denver or Jacksonville stumbles. If Cincinnati loses tonight, they will fall to the #6 spot, behind Denver, with the match-up at Mile-High determining who probably gets in. Theoretically, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee are still in the hunt at 7-7 but the odds are already long that a 9-7 team will get in. Plus, Pittsburgh will probably go down to the Ravens next week and Tennessee and Buffalo face each other. So, there will probably be only one 8-7 team among this bunch after next week anyway.

On the NFC side, everyone sucks. Chicago won the #1 seed, but needed overtime against a Tampa Bay team that hadn’t scored a TD since late November. New Orleans is still the #2 seed by virtue of their win over Dallas, but the Saints looked bad against the Deadskins. But, Dallas must defeat a resurgent Philadelphia team next week while New Orleans faces off against the problematic Giants.

Meanwhile, Seattle could lose their next two games and if San Francisco wins their last two, the 49ers will win the West and the #4 seed. I think that’s unlikely as Seattle faces Tampa Bay in Week 17 while San Francisco plays Denver, but it’s a possibility.

Philadelphia has put itself in a good position to lock up the #5 seed, but if they beat Dallas next week and Atlanta after that, Philly would win the NFC East. Either way, Philadelphia is a strong bet to make the playoffs after being left for dead. Atlanta meanwhile is in a world of hurt. They can defeat the Panthers next week to get themselves back to 8-7, but the team’s confidence is shaken after Jim Mora’s comments about possibly leaving if the University of Washington job came open and defeat against the Eagles in week 17 looms large. If the Falcons don’t make the playoffs, Mora will probably be fired. The Giants are also still in the mix as they currently hold the #6 seed. Their schedule lends itself towards an 8-8 finish and since they hold the tiebreaker over Atlanta, they get in.

Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis, and San Francisco could also all win out to challenge the Giants and Falcons for the last playoff spot, but schedule and tiebreakers favor the Giants. Minnesota has the best chance as they play Green Bay and St. Louis in the last two weeks and if they win those, they would be 8-8 with an 8-4 record against the NFC, better than any other potential 8-8 team. But Minnesota has been sketchy and after squandering their chance against the Jets, the Vikings will need to be perfect down the stretch.

So, the current playoff match-ups are as follows:

AFC
#1 San Diego – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Denver at #3 Indianapolis
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England

NFC
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 NY Giants at #3 Dallas
#5 Philadelphia at #4 Seattle

Philadelphia would like nothing better for this to be the case. Seattle is looking very mortal and if they win there, they would travel to Chicago. The Bears don’t look very good either, giving the Eagles a good chance of getting back the NFC title game with a back-up quarterback. Of course, if they win the East, they could fight their way all the way to the #2 seed if New Orleans doesn’t recover. Either way, the Eagles could find themselves in their fifth NFC title game in six years.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Samson Exposed

Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister of Israel, admitted in a slip of the tongue what we already know: that Israeli has nuclear weapons. Some people believe that Israel could have the sixth largest nuclear arsenal and probably the most sophisticated delivery system. But Olmert’s mistake came in admitting it at all. Israel has long clung to a policy of ambiguity: don’t admit, don’t deny. Better to keep the Arabs guessing and never have proof. Now, the Arabs have their proof.

Some might not see this as a big deal, but it actually is. Now that the cat is officially out of the bag, Iran is going to thumb its nose at everyone and say that they need nuclear weapons to counter the threat from Israel. Not that the world community was going to stop Iran, but this eliminates any possibility of anyone outside of the US and maybe Britain of applying sanctions to Iran and we already have them in place.

Secondly, Israel can no longer hope for the US backing if they chose to bomb the Iranian sites. Israel was always going to be vilified for a preemptive strike on Iran, but they could have probably counted on the US support and the rest of the world talking out of both sides of their mouth about how it was a terrible thing Israel did, but its also nice to not have a nuclear Iran. Now the world will universally condemn Israel for being a have and imposing its will on its neighbors. The world will try to apply great pressure to Israel and the US will probably not even try to stop it, finding no real hole in the world's argument.

The third consequence is that after some sort of hostilities erupt next year, the UN will come down and demand that the Middle East be declared a nuclear free zone. They might actually enforce it in Iran and other countries, but the focus of their wrath will be on Israel. Israel, to maintain any standing in the world community will be forced to give up their nuclear weapons and subject themselves to UN inspection tours. Without the threat of nuclear reprisals, the enemies of Israel will gather their forces for a large-scale invasion. Losses will be heavy, but if they act quickly, they should overwhelm the unprepared Israelis. At least, that’s what they think.

Midnight is approaching and Olmert is pushing the minute hand only that much faster.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Israeli Football

First, some football: the AFC continues to be clouded as only two of the 7-5 teams won, while two of the division leaders got slapped silly. San Diego, aided by losses by Denver, Kansas City, and Indianapolis, both won the West but also vaulted into the #1 position. Indianapolis holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore at the moment, but with the lack of run defense, it is possible that Indy could fall behind the Ravens in the quest for the #2 seed. San Diego’s road is easy enough over the last three games that they should be able to hold onto that #1 seed. New England looked terrible but it should still be able to hold onto the East and the #4 seed that will come with it.

The wild card became clearer, although it is not well defined yet. Cincinnati and Jacksonville both won, but each team’s schedule could deal the team crippling blows towards getting into the playoffs. Cincinnati must go to Indianapolis and Denver and win at least one of those games (the Denver game is probably the more needed one) while Jacksonville must square off against a resurgent Tennessee and travel to Kansas City and Jacksonville has not played well on the road this year. The Jets, the Chiefs, and the Broncos are still in things at 7-6 but one more loss will probably doom their playoff chances. The Steelers, Dolphins, Bills, and Titans are still harboring delusions of the playoffs. The Steelers hopes will die against the Ravens in two weeks while the Dolphins and Bills will probably go down in random losses or tiebreakers that were settled when both teams were suffering early in the season. The Titans have a chance, but their failures early will probably doom them.

On the NFC side, Chicago will probably beat the Rams tonight and all but clinch the #1 seed. New Orleans has done well and can probably hold the #2 seed as the Seahawks don’t seem to be doing well at the moment. Dallas is currently sitting in fourth, but can pass the bumbling Seahawks with a couple of wins. The Giants and Eagles currently hold the #5 and #6 seeds but they play each other this weekend. Atlanta is in there as well, but they play Dallas this weekend. So the door is still open for the Panthers. If the Falcons lose to Dallas and the Panthers beat Pittsburgh, they are back in the mix of it for the #6 seed. I don’t think that’s likely and I would opt for 6-7 Minnesota to be more likely to get back in the mix. Ultimately, I think the odds and schedule favor the Giants to secure the #5 seed while the #6 seed will pass to either Atlanta or Minnesota. Minnesota’s schedule is significantly easier than Atlanta’s but they have been so unreliable in the past few games that I can’t pull the trigger on them just yet.

Current Playoff Schedule:

AFC:
#1 San Diego - bye
#2 Indianapolis - bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 Baltimore
#5 Cincinnati at #4 New England

NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 New Orleans – bye
#6 Philadelphia at #3 Seattle
#5 NY Giants at #4 Dallas

In non-football related news, Baby X turns 7 months today and is still very cute. She still has some problems with waking up during the night, but we’re trying to power through those.

Meanwhile, the world is still moving with steady progress towards a large confrontation with Israel in the late spring or early summer of 2007. Iran is predicting to have fully fissile material by the end of March, which should give them a fully functional nuclear weapon a couple of months after that. Iran won’t have enough to use in the next confrontation with Israel, but it will probably hold the nuclear weapons as a means of keeping the US forces in Iraq to come to Israel’s aid when the attack is launched. Iran may even be hoping that Israel attempts to knock out the Iran facilities and use that as a means of triggering the war. About the only thing that throws any kind of wrench into their plans is the factionalism among the Palestinians in Gaza that prevents a united front. Iran may back a major power push against Fatah in the next few weeks to secure a united front in the south and Hamas has shown them to be a little more agreeable to Iran’s frame of mind. Either way, I would be very surprised if a large-scale war has not broken out by mid to late May next year.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Football Alternate Universe

Whilst reading a column on the Sports Illustrated site, I came across an interesting comment. Someone had asked what was the most season changing play of the college football season and the writer had responded that (in his opinion) it was Rutgers first attempt at the game winning field goal against Louisville. The kick missed, but a Louisville player jumped offsides, giving Rutgers 5 yards and a second kick. So what would have happened if that player had not jumped offsides and Louisville had won the game in overtime?

Having defeated the two biggest rivals on their schedule, Louisville would have vaulted to the #2 spot in the BCS standings. They would have cemented that standing, as everyone else around them finished with one or two losses and Louisville would now be playing the BCS title game. This would make the folks in Columbus happy, as they have not been looking for a National Championship Game but rather an anointing ceremony. I’m not sure they will get that against Florida but it would have been a little more likely against Louisville. The BCS bowl games would have looked like this:

National Title Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Louisville
Rose: USC vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: Wake Forrest vs. LSU

I was mistakenly under the impression that the Big East automatically went to the Orange Bowl, but that is only true for the ACC. Prior to the BCS it seems it was tradition for the ACC to play the Big East, but they do not have a guaranteed bowl like the others do. So Louisville’s selection would have been like taking an at-large team. The Rose Bowl would have snapped up Michigan to replace Ohio St. and the rest of the Bowls would have selected as they did this year: Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.

Monday, December 04, 2006

More Football

So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game. USC lost to UCLA while Florida actually held up its end of the bargin and beat Arkansas. For this prowess and the desire to not have Michigan play OSU in a rematch, the voters conciously voted Florida into the #2 spot. Michigan is correct to gripe that if USC had won, they would have finished the season at #3 while Florida stayed at #4, that is true. But that is for the BCS voters to decide.

What the voters were really afraid of is a Michigan-Ohio St. rematch where Michigan beats Ohio St. and Florida beats Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl leaving three 1-loss teams and the "National Champion" as a team which didn't even win its conference. Michigan will gripe and complain, but at the end of the day, they had a chance to beat Ohio St. and didn't do it. Let's see if the best of the SEC can. If Florida wins and Michigan defeats USC in the Rose Bowl, then we can discuss what could have been, but for now its Ohio St. vs. Florida.

In the NFL, things got more interesting. The four conference winners are pretty much set in the AFC and only the South is still up for grabs in the NFC. The AFC 1-4 seeds will be Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and New England with San Diego now in a great position to grab the #1 seed away from Indianapolis. Baltimore and New England will probably fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds. Chicago has already won the NFC North while Dallas and Seattle have significant leads in the East and West. I think Dallas will secure the #2 seed and Seattle and New Orleans will fight it out for the #3 and 4 seeds.

But it's the AFC wild cards that are the topic of discussion. With the Jets, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all winning and Denver and Kansas City losing, there is now a 5 way tie for two wild card spots. The Jets and the Bengals currently have the tiebreakers that allow them to get in and that may or may not change. The Jets have an easy last four games and should lose no more than one game, puting them in for the #5 seed and a probable date with New England. Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Denver all cross paths with very difficult teams, as does Cincinnati. The team that emerges with only one loss will win the last spot. Cincinnati and Denver face probable losses against Indianapolis and San Diego respectively, setting up their Week 16 match-up as the probable winner take all for trip to Baltimore.

On the NFC side, mediocraty reigns supreme as 6-5 Carolina and 6-6 NY Giants fill the two wild card spots and 6-6 Atlanta waits in the wings. It is highly probable that the #6 seed in the NFC will be 9-7 or possibly worse.

But at this particular moment, I would say that San Diego beats Dallas in the Super Bowl. We'll see.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Thanksgiving Football

Well, another weekend of football has come and gone. Turkey day was good and I even managed to avoid killing anyone with my cooking.

The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.

In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.

The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.

That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.

That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.

Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:

National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame

On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.

On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Correcting the Football Projections

An amendment is required for my Bowl Projections. In the Rose Bowl I had placed Cal as an “at large” and then put West Virginia in the Orange Bowl as the Big East Champion. However that did not reflect the current reality of the college football world. Had Rutgers remained unbeaten until it faced West Virginia and then lost to West Virginia, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the Big East between West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville. In that situation, the tiebreaker would have been the BCS standings of each team, of which West Virginia would have been highest.

However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:

National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.

So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.

On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.

In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.

If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:

AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England

NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina

Monday, November 20, 2006

Rematch?

Well, the rankings are out and Michigan is still #2 in the BCS. Some people are probably already hitting the panic button regarding a rematch, however, it should be pointed out that the other three teams in contention to play Ohio St. for the title still have three games left. One of those teams will be automatically eliminated from contention when Florida plays Arkansas in the SEC title game. USC still has a strong claim to the title match so long as they beat Notre Dame and UCLA. The Ohio St.-Michigan game being close destroyed any change Notre Dame had of getting into the title game and Rutgers loss to Cincinnati caused a huge sigh of relief for the folks at the BCS accounting department.

So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.

The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:

National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Election Fallout

Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really change much. There will be a lot more gridlock and Bush will be using his veto a lot more in his final two years. About the only major thing is that since the Democrats have gained control of the Senate, Bush will not be able to push through any significantly conservative judges. In fact, if either Ginsburg or Stevens decides to retire in the next two years, the Democrats will all but force Bush to nominate a liberal justice to replace them. That won’t really change anything on the court, although I’m sure Bush would have liked to get a 6-3 conservative majority rather than keep the 5-4 he has now.

Gridlock is not necessarily a bad thing when you realize that the mentality of most elected officials is “Don’t just stand there, spend something!” A few things will get through, but talk about increasing the minimum wage and some of the other liberal perks will get shot down by Bush and even now the Democrats won’t have enough votes to override his veto. Probably the real winner in this is John McCain. If the Democrats don’t do anything stupid, there is no reason to believe that they won’t keep their majority in Congress (or at least the House). Thus, you will need a President who can work with that and is seen as a bit more moderate. I’m not sure the people will be ready to trust a Democratic Congress with a Democratic president just yet, but a moderate Republican president with a history of working across the aisle will be a bit more palatable to the people. Enter John McCain.

There is one major downside to this change though. The Democrats have made it no secret that they intend to use their control of the purse strings to force the Pentagon to start scaling back in Iraq and a few other places. That will limit our mobility for a while and I think that Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians are going to try and take advantage of the situation. The Palestinians are seriously hurting for cash and they are starting to feel the pressure of the Israeli incursions into Gaza. Rather than be rational and stop fighting and recognize Israel, the Palestinians will probably coordinate with the leader of Hamas in Damascus, who will arrange a three way assault against Israel between Hezbollah, the Palestinians, and Syria. Iran will probably find a way to send money and materials over to the Arabs to keep the war going. While the world stands by and talks about it as they did during the Lebanon crisis, the Arabs might catch the Israelis by surprise enough and with overwhelming numbers to overrun a portion of their military. If that happens, the Israelis will have very little choice to turn to desperate measures to keep themselves afloat.

One other little note, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak officially announced he is running for President today. Joe Biden is also believed to be running although he has not announced it yet. John Kerry and John Edwards never stopped running, although they too have not formally announced their candidacies yet. Hillary Clinton also has not said much and she has also given very mixed signals as to whether she will try to run. I must admit, I think the primary fight would be a lot more entertaining if she did not run. It gets boring when one candidate crushes everyone. But Vilsak running officially means that everyone else is running for second place when the Iowa straw poll comes about in January 2008.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Sports Fallout

As predicted, I finished the baseball playoffs at 0 and 7. But, I'm quite happy with having the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series. I'm sure my grandfather was quite happy that night.

On the football front, things are still a bit murky in Cincinnati. The Bengals lost to the Falcons showing that they still have problems with the O line and the secondary is still missing one or two players. But, the Bengals are still in the hunt for the #6 seed. Right now the AFC playoffs will include Indianapolis, New England, Denver, Baltimore, and San Diego. I see very little to change this in the coming weeks. There are realistically, two teams vying for that last spot: Cincinnati and Jacksonville. Some might argue that the Jets and Chiefs should be considered as well, but the Jets are bad and I don't think any division will send three teams and the AFC West is already going to contribute Denver and San Diego. Jacksonville has an easier schedule but they've been very inconsistent as of late. I think this race will remain murky for a while yet.

On the NFC side, its a bit fuzzier. Chicago, the NY Giants, and Seattle are all in good positions, although if Seattle suffers any more injuries, they will be in a world of hurt. Atlanta is looking good and I'm not quite ready to give up on New Orleans yet. There is also Minnesota and St. Louis to consider as well as what happens with Dallas and Philly, although I'm less worried about these two. As far as the NFC goes, the only thing I'm reasonably comfortable with right now is the idea that Chicago will get the #1 seed.

On the college front, USC lost a little earlier than anyone was expecting, although a lot of the people that follow college football closely were expecting USC to stumble at some point. This sets up Ohio St. and Michigan as the clear #1 and #2. I could even see people within the two schools proclaiming that this will be the true national championship game. One might find that hard to argue with given the way the standings could shake out. Right now, West Virginia is #3 and they will solidify that ranking a bit more firmly if they beat #6 Louisville on Thursday. If West Virgina remains unbeaten, the Fiesta Bowl will be the Ohio St. - Michigan winner vs. West Virginia and I think some people would grumble about that due to a lack of respect for the Big East. Actually, the Big East is better than the ACC this year but very few people want to admit that. I personally don't have a problem with this matchup, but I think a lot of people would rather see the Ohio St. - Michigan winner face off against the SEC winner, especially if it's a strong 1 loss team like Florida. They might not be as stringent about it if Arkansas ends up coming out of the scrum that is the SEC.

The gigantic fear of the BCS folks is if both West Virginia and Louisville get beaten at some point in the season. This will probably mean that Rutgers will have emerged as the unbeaten champion. Unlikely, but possible. Or, if West Virgina or Louisville emerge as the Big East champion with 1 loss. Then you'll have Ohio St. or Michigan waiting for someone with one loss while some minor unbeaten team shrieks about not getting credit. Some folks are even proposing that if Ohio St. - Michigan is a very close game that the two schools rematch in the Fiesta Bowl. There are scenarios where that is possible. But at the moment, the road we are on now is geared toward a Ohio St. vs. West Virgina national chamionship. You also have Boise St. and Notre Dame lurking around to spar for those two at large bowl spots. Imagine the cry from some corners of the realm if Boise St. and Notre Dame get to play in BCS bowls and a 1 loss Michigan team gets left out. Such as this:

Fiesta - Ohio St. vs. West Virgina
Rose - Notre Dame vs. Boise St.
Orange - Texas vs. Florida
Sugar - Boston College vs. Cal

Friday, October 27, 2006

0 for 6 and maybe 0 for 7

This year has not been good to me picking the postseason. Of course, this just reinforces why I don't go to Vegas and do sports betting. I had a post that got eaten by Blogger last Friday where I picked the Tigers to win the World Series in 5 and then advised everyone else to go out and pick the Cardinals. As it happens, I may have had the length of the series correct, but the team wrong.

Too many things have been happening: Tigers commiting terrible errors, players slipping, balls taking lucky bounces, etc. I also got a weird feeling last night while watching part of game 4. I saw that St. Louis had fallen behind 3-0 and then I saw the Cardinals make it 3-1. After that, I just got the feeling that they were going to claw their way back into it, adding a run here and a run there. I still wasn't sure if they would win the game, but I had this feeling that they would get back into it and make it a late inning game. I turned it off after the 5th inning and was pretty sure that the Tigers would have won it, but St. Louis had pulled it out when I got up this morning.

I don't know if the Cardinals will pull it out tonight. If they don't, I seriously think it will go to 7 games. The Cardinals have a rookie starter going against Kenny Rogers in game 6 so I'm willing to concede game 6 to Detroit. That would put game 7 with Chris Carpenter on the mound for St. Louis and someone else on the mound for Detroit. But right now, the edge certainly favors St. Louis to take it in 5. Of course, there could be another rainout and who knows what will happen after that.

After this seaon, I will test my skills by picking the world series for next year and seeing if those teams finish dead last in their divisions.

Friday, October 20, 2006

A Palatable World Series

I am an absolutely fabulous 0-6 in predicting the baseball playoffs. In fact, I'm so bad that I even predicted the manner of the LCS wrong. I was sure that the ALCS would go at least 6 games and maybe even 7. I thought if there was a chance for a sweep, it would be the Mets. Instead, the Tigers sweep the A's and the Cardinals down the Mets in 7.

Fortunately for me, I'm not a sports gambler and have not lost any money on the playoffs.

So, now what? Even before we knew who the participants were, I said that the American League would defeat the National League team. I see no reason to back off that sentiment. We have been selling the Cardinals short in the playoffs so far, but I just can't quite wrap my brain around St. Louis besting Detroit. The Tigers have this "team of destiny" aura about them right now. Personally, I think St. Louis' only chance is if the Tigers might have gotten out of the groove they found themselves in. But even if they did, I think that only gives St. Louis a chance to stretch the series to 6 or 7 games. My feeling at this point is that the Tigers will win in 5.

So that means put all your bets on St. Louis.

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Winowning the NFL

One of the guys I sit next to, Robert, does fantasy football so we talk about football a bit. Even though we’re only on Week 6, the playoffs are coming firmer into focus, at least in the AFC. Right now you have 7 teams fighting for 6 playoff spots with two teams as outside shots: New England, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Denver, and San Diego. Kansas City and Pittsburgh are the outside looking in teams.

Because of the brutal schedules for Baltimore and Cincinnati, and Indianapolis’ inconsistency, I ruefully have to say that it looks like the #1 seed may fall into New England’s lap. Other things may happen, but New England has the appearance of a 12-4 team, although one that could get bounced in its first playoff game. Regardless, New England will win the AFC East just as Indianapolis will win the AFC South. These two facts are just givens.

Baltimore and Cincinnati are both flawed teams. Baltimore’s offense is okay but nothing great. Cincinnati can’t stop the run. One of these teams will win the division. Personally, I hope its Cincinnati, but I don’t think we’re going to know until they play each other. Out West, Denver and San Diego both have schedules with enough weak teams that both should make the playoffs. My gut tells me that San Diego will win the division if Marty Schottenheimer does find ways to fritter it away during close games (see Baltimore game). That leaves the Cincinnati-Baltimore loser and Jacksonville fighting it out for that last playoff spot. In this tight of a race, every game counts.

On the NFC side, things are very murky. Only two things are evident right now: that the road to the Super Bowl will almost definitely go through Soldier Field and that only Green Bay, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Arizona, and San Francisco are not in the playoff hunt. Seattle and St. Louis are on an inside track, but the NFC East and South are so cluttered that it will very difficult to see who comes out of those races without a few more games. I think the Eagles will make it as well as the Saints and perhaps the Panthers. But at this point, the Bears are looking almost unstoppable and it may not matter who fills out the other five slots, especially if they are batter, bruised, and bloodied from their divisional games when the face the Bears.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Baseball Skills

In the world of baseball prognostication, I rate an F and couldn’t be happier about it. A week ago I thought we were looking at a rematch of the 1998 World Series. Now, the Yankees are out and the Cardinals are still in. I don’t expect St. Louis to get to the next round, but I thought San Diego would take care of them and we saw how wrong I was there.

In fact, I picked all four series wrong. I was fairly well spoken about the Tigers-Yankees series as well as the St. Louis-San Diego series. Given the way both Detroit and St. Louis limped into the playoffs, I don’t think anyone would have blamed me.

The other two were more up in the air. Oakland-Minnesota I was giving the edge to Minnesota because of how hot they came into the playoffs and Oakland’s history of collapsing in the first round. Obviously someone in Oakland figured out how the change the vibe and Minnesota looked like they ran out of gas.

On the Dodgers-Mets front, I thought New York was the better team, but that all the injuries to the Mets pitching and LA’s strong trio of starters would put the Dodgers into the next round. Obviously I failed to reckon with the Mets’ bats. The pitching wasn’t as bad as everyone thought it would be and the Mets’ hitters took great strides forward and vaulted themselves forward.

Now we have Oakland-Detroit starting tomorrow and New York-St. Louis starting on Wednesday. It would be most fitting if the Tigers and the Mets met in the World Series, as these were the two teams that clearly dominated their leagues for most of the year. I do expect the Mets to take it to the Cardinals. St. Louis might be able to stretch things out to a game 6, but I just think that the New York hitting will overpower St. Louis. I’m not so sure about the AL. Detroit beat Oakland 5 games to 4 in the regular season, but Oakland had better stats. I also feel a little more comfortable with the state of Oakland’s pitching right now. I would expect the Tigers to suffer a little bit of a hangover from their battle with the Yanks, but I also expect them to rally back and force this series to 7 games.

Of course, given my prognostication skills, both St. Louis and Detroit will sweep their respective series for the rubber match of the 1934 and 1968 World Series (St. Louis won in ’34 and Detroit won in ’68).

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Plunder and Spoil

Have you come to plunder? Have you gathered your hordes to loot, to carry off silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods and to seize much plunder? - Ezekiel 38:13b

I read with great amusement the stories of escatologists who think that the Battle of Gog and Magog will be happening in the next year or so. It is possible, but there is always so much criteria in the prophecy of the battle that people conviently overlook. Most of the excitement is always bred out of the simple truth that the Battle of Gog and Magog is believed to be the last recorded event before the Rapture. Some even think that the Rapture will happen before this battle and if you can the battle getting ready to happen, people will go out to stand on the hilltops waiting to be caught up.

There are still a large number of events that have to happen before we reach this point. I still believe that we are only in a slight lull before the Amos War starts up again. Many news reports that I've read certainly give credence to the idea that Hezbollah, Syria, and the Palestinians are thinking about taking up another large scale offensive, perhaps as soon as March or April.

However, I did notice this little article in my perusings of various news articles. Gog and her allies are coming for plunder and spoil. An Israel that is completely self sufficient in oil and natural gas reserves will stick very heavily in the craw of Arab states and their allies. If the Arab and Russian oil reserves ever start to look like they might be grinding down or taxed to the limit, I would not be surprised at all to see a mad dash to seize any Israeli reserves, no matter how small.

The pieces are moving into place.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Blue Sports Day

Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend. Looked absolutely pathetic on offense and the defense completely wore down by the middle of the third quarter. For some reason, Palmer never tested the New England secondary. Part of that might have been the breakdown of the offensive line. Palmer has been getting far too much pressure on him this season and unless they find a way to slow down the pass rush, some defensive lineman will knock out Palmer later this season.

Meanwhile, my worst fear came true in baseball: Minnesota won the division. I’m happy for them, but this gives the Yankees an almost clear path to another World Series victory. Had Detroit managed to hold on and win the division, Minnesota would have played the Yankees. Santana would have faced the Yankees in games 1 and possibly 5, plus Minnesota has one of the best home records in the majors. New York might still have won, but Minnesota would have had a very good chance of beating the Yankees in the first round. Now, the Yankees will knock out the reeling and starry-eyed Tigers in either three or four games while Minnesota and Oakland punish each other in their series. Once New York is out of the short series, they’ll be able to rely on their bats and moderate pitching to moderate the effects of one or two great pitchers that either Minnesota or Oakland would be able to throw at them.

As for the National League, the road is pretty much paved with gold for San Diego. The Mets pitching staff is in shambles and they go up against a very good lineup in the Dodgers aces. San Diego should cake walk through St. Louis (whom they beat up heavily on in the second to last series of the season). This puts a strong possibility of a San Diego – LA pennant and San Diego has beaten Los Angeles very effectively this year. So the road seems open for a rematch of the 1998 World Series. Hopefully San Diego can manage to win at least one game this time, but the odds strongly favor another Yankees title.

Friday, September 29, 2006

Fool or Genius?

I apologize for being away for over a month. I've been busy at work and also a little bit out of the blogging mood. But I hope to get back into the swing of things and perhaps to some lighter subject material. If the Bengals keep winning, that might be easy.

However, I've been reading a great deal lately about Pope Benedict's comments regarding Mohammed and the subsequent outpouring of rage by the Muslim community. Everything that I've read seems to imply that Benedict was a fool or completely unaware of what his quote of the Byzantine Emperor would do. Yet after watching all this evolve over the past couple of weeks, I've come to a rather different conclusion. Benedict knew exactly what he was doing and is prepping for a grand master plan.

First, let us point out that Benedict is around 80 years old and has been working his way around in the affairs of religious politics for a very long time. The incident with the Danish cartoons depicting Mohammed told everyone exactly what the Muslim community's reaction would be to a perceived slight. Stating that their religion is only spread through fear and violence would obviously set the people off, despite the very stupid notion that by doing so they validate the Byzantine Emperor's opinion of them. There was ample warning of the reaction and only a blind fool would have not seen what would have happened after making those comments.

However, once you read the reaction of the non-Muslim masses regarding the Pope's comments and the Muslim reaction, one comes away with an interesting notion. The West (and indeed most of the world) is currently divided into two camps regarding Islam: those opposed to it and those willing to submit to Islam in the sake of peace. However, after the Pope made his comments, even those who are willing to concede many things to the Muslims in the sake of peace and out of fear of violence think that the Muslim reaction and anger was overblown, especially given the context of the Pope's comments and his repeated attempts to calm the waves. In essence, even though they might not necessarily be religious people or specifically Catholic, the non-Muslim community was brought just a little bit tighter together in opposition of the irrational anger of the Muslims.

If you scan about a look at the major religions of the world, they are all currently in conflict with Islam in some fashion. Christianity wars upon Al-Qaida and other Islamic terrorists in the Middle East and there have been several terrorist incidents and Islamic uprisings in Europe. Judaism and Islam mix like oil and water. Muslims and Hindus fight repeated pitched battles in Kashmir and other places about India. Muslim guerrillas have been fighting against Buddhists in the Philippines, eastern China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and several other locations in southeast Asia. All it really takes is for enough fear and resolve to build throughout these groups before they unite together against Islam. Yes, its not like Buddhists and Christians have much in common, but when threatened the enemy of my enemy is my friend. This becomes even more pronounced when you see belligerent Muslim nations working very hard to develop nuclear weapons.

This unification probably won't happen overnight, but with his remarks, I believe Benedict has taken a large step towards everyone getting comfortable with the idea of a great unification. Benedict's plan probably involves taking them all under the Roman banner of a future Pope as the Catholic church is the wealthiest and most unified body among all the major religions of the world. This unification will also probably ease everyone's palate and turn a blind eye when Israel finally says enough and beats her Arab neighbors down to the point where they cannot make war on her ever again (an incident that I think is coming very soon). By playing the fool, Benedict has made a significant step forward in the goal a unified superstate/religion. A great war will be required to make it fully come to pass, but man has never shown a problem with going down that road before.

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Book Thoughts

I stole this from my sister’s blog. I thought it might be an interesting change of pace:

1. One book that changed your life:
In a strange, convoluted way, Anne of Green Gables by LM Montgomery. I first read the book when I was in 4th grade and was interested enough that I read the entire series. I put them away after a while, but when I was in college I pulled them out again. My interest in them and the movies based on them led me to stumble on a forum devoted to the third movie, which was to be released in 2000 (it was a terrible movie, completely unlike the books). It was through this forum that I eventually met Mrs. X, which led me to move from my old job to my current job. A long string of event based off a random reading in 1987.

2. One book that you've read more than once:
I have officially lost count of the times that I have read The Hobbit by JRR Tolkien. I first read it when I was about 9 or 10 and enjoyed it so much that I have reread the book many times. In fact, the first copy I had was duct taped together for a while I had read it so much. I now have a nice hardcover edition that I pull off the shelf on occasion.

3. One book you'd want on a desert island:
In the vein of the last post, I would pick the Lord of the Rings trilogy (which they can sell as one book). It’s a very long, engaging read that should pass the time sufficiently while I wait for rescue.

4. One book that made you laugh:
I don’t read a lot of pure comedy books, although I do have a lot of comic collections. One of the few I do have is Fatherhood by Bill Cosby. A lot of things he references I’ve seen in his stand up acts and it makes for an amusing read.

5. One book that made you cry:
I don’t know that I’ve ever cried when reading a book, however, I do recall getting extremely angry while reading few books, mostly due to frustration with the character’s stupidity. Probably the one I recall the easiest is Needful Things by Stephen King. On at least one occasion, I wanted to step into the book and strangle several of the characters for acting in such a stupid fashion.

6. One book you wish had been written:
This is hard because just about every good movie or story I’ve heard has been based on a book. I’ll have to leave this one blank.

7. One book you wish had never been written:
Great Expectations by Charles Dickens. I’m no fan of Dickens under most circumstances, but I couldn’t stand this story. Days of Our Lives has had less convoluted and eyebrow raising plots.

8. One book you're currently reading:
I haven’t started it yet, but I’ve put Band of Brothers on reserve at the library. Mrs. X and I just finished watching the miniseries and I thought it might be interesting to get more details in the book.

9. One book you've been meaning to read:
There are a lot of these. One that’s been sitting by my bed for quite a while is Love and War by John Jakes. It’s the second book in the North and South series and I’ve started it twice but always put it down and never gotten back to it. Maybe later this winter I’ll pick it up and stick with it.

10. One book that has scared the crap out of you:
It didn’t exactly scare me, but I was deeply disturbed by the novella The Long Walk by Richard Bachmann (aka Stephen King). A very disturbing story about a fascist US that holds a contest where 50 young men walk continuously in competition. If you fall behind a set speed too often, you are shot. Last man standing wins a big prize. Very disturbing concept.

11. The one book that is most recommended to others by you:
Mrs. X has repeatedly recommended the Generations books. They’re a non-fiction series dealing with historical trends and patterns among the various generations and how one can use these trends to observe various sociological patterns. I keep meaning to read them but never quite get around to it.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

The Momentary Calm

With the cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel signed, all the religious types are starting to sit down again. I however am taking a slightly more long view. In previous posts I thought this looked like the Amos war. I still believe that, however the finishing of it may not come for another year.

Israel and Hezbollah have signed a Hunda, a temporary halt to hostilities that Muslims use to regroup and retool before launching a fresh attack whenever it suits them. Mohammed famously used this when he signed a ten-year treaty with the tribe holding Mecca after being defeated by them in battle. Mohammed returned to Medina, regrouped his army and then launched a surprise attack two years later, successfully taking Mecca. This is what Hezbollah has agreed to.

We should also remember that Israel is still fighting with Hamas in the south. That has gotten very little airtime with the war in Lebanon, but operations continue there as well, though not to the scale as in the north.

Prime Minister Olmert’s government will fall eventually but I don’t believe it will happen in the next few days as some predict. The other parties will try, but Labor and Kedima are still in tight lockstep. There will have to be some defections for a vote of no confidence to be declared. I suspect that Olmert’s government will not collapse until he tried to implement his pull out of the West Bank. That will push enough people over the edge that the government will collapse. Once the new leaders are elected (more to the right and perhaps even a stronger representation from the Orthodox parties), Iran and Syria might feel that they have no choice but to resume fighting before Israel has a chance to recover her morale and get the army back into a strong fighting force.

Either way, I’m still holding to my position that by June of next year, we will start seeing some major happenings over there. We might recall that WWII began with Germany conquering Poland in three weeks in September. Then nothing happened until Hitler launched the campaign against France in the spring. I believe this is a lull, the calm to give the Muslim armies confidence to jump in with both feet next time.

There is also supposedly the chance that Iran could do something stupid to flare things up by Tuesday (Aug 22). I’m beginning to think that Iran is backing off that date for the moment and might defer it until next year. After all, the 12th Imam has waited over 1400 years. He can wait one more year. 2007 is looking to be a banger year over there.

Friday, August 11, 2006

In another Biblical doubletake, Strategypage is reporting that Ethiopia and Somalia are preparing to go to war with each other. Strategypage is predicting an Ethiopian win, however, I would caution them that Sudan might intervien on behalf of their radiacal Muslim bretherin in Somalia. If the two sides unite and push the Christian Ethiopians back, we could well have a united pan-Islamic state on the Horn of Africa. Not exactly making it the nicest place for US or Israeli interests, to say nothing of what that would mean in terms of extending ties with Iran.

I would also suggest that people keep an eye on Egypt during this time. I don't know when it will erupt, but a civil war is brewing there too. The Muslim Brotherhood is becoming increasily violent towards the government in power and I don't think it will take much for them to try and take over the government. Especially if Hamas and Hezbollah are defeated in the war with Israel. Hamas is a direct offshoot of this group and they feel that Egypt should be in the war, hitting Israel from the south as Syria and Lebanon are from the north. I give the over-under on an Egyptian civil war 3 years.

Monday, August 07, 2006

Thoughts and Reunions

No matter how religious you are, or how much you believe in certain passages of the Bible, it is still a bit freaky to hear something on the news and have it printed directly for you in the Bible.

As I have mentioned before, I have postulated that the current war between Hezbollah/Hamas and Israel, is the opening salvo in the war mentioned in the book of Amos. This morning, I was listening to a discussion of the war and one of the commentators mentioned that according to various news reports, Hezbollah has a large array of bunkers hidden by brush scattered throughout Lebanon and Syria in a manner very similar to Japanese tactics used on Iwo Jima. The commentator noted that when the US fought the Japanese, they were forced to go into the fortified hills and burn away the brush using flame throwers before they could go in and either flush the bunkers or destroy them using air power. This is the system that Hezbollah has set up.

Now, relate this scenario as to how Israel is going to have to deal with Hezbollah to this passage in the book of Amos: “I will send fire upon the walls of Tyre that will consume her fortresses.” Most of the bunkers are in the south, arrayed in a pattern surrounding the major cities of Tyre and Beirut. If one views these bunkers as small fortresses (and I think any sensible military commander would) and knowing the methods that Israel will have to use to root them out, it does give one pause and a little bit of gooseflesh.

On a lighter note, my high school class had their 10-year reunion this past Saturday. I did not go as that would have required putting Mrs. X and Baby X (who is now three months old) in a long car ride for a party that I’m not sure I would have been that comfortable at. But the main organizer did send out a couple of pictures of those who went. Using my yearbook, I was able to successfully identify all but one person in the photo and I have a guess as to who she is (I needed the yearbook for names. Even though we only had 80 people in the class, I only went there two years and didn’t really interact with over half the class). It is amusing to see how much some people have changed and how little some others have. I was also mildly amused to see She Who Must Not Be Named there as well, especially given that she had told me on a couple of occasions that she had no interest in ever going to a High School Reunion. But, I did notice that she seems to be connected with someone again and I can only wish her the best.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Lieberman's Window

Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you. But now that looks like it’s going to be the case. Ned Lamont leads Joe Lieberman 54-41 in the latest poll of likely Democratic primary voters.

Most people will talk about other symptoms, but I think this is another example of God forcing his people back to Israel. I know George Bush is a lightning rod of hate on the Left by now, but how could a single issue candidate (the war in Iraq) defeat a man who is more liberal than the Minority Leader of the Senate (Harry Reid – NV). Yet that is exactly what is happening. Lieberman will push ahead and run as an independent and that will most likely have two results. Lamont will win anyway because enough Connecticut voters will knee jerk vote for the guy with the “D” next to his name, or Lieberman will steal enough votes from Lamont and the independents that the Republican challenger will win in a bizarre 35-32-33 race. Especially if the second option happens, Lieberman will be hounded out of Democratic politics.

Now, despite what most of the world thinks, I think the current conflict in Israel will last quite a while, perhaps as long as a year or more. More countries will get dragged into it and as Israel’s methods get harsher in trying to secure peace, animosity towards Jews will increase around the world. I saw on the news last night a report from a group of Jewish teenagers who had been in Israel when the fighting started and despite the need for security, all they talked about was how much they loved the country and couldn’t wait to go back.

I believe that a majority of the Jewish people in the world have a secret love of the home country buried within them and I think that as anti-Semitism grows over the next couple of years, we will see a significant migration back to Israel. So, it really wouldn’t surprise me if we hear in 2010 that Joe Lieberman has been appointed as Israel’s ambassador to the United States or even to a higher office. God may be shutting the Senate door to open the Israeli window for Mr. Lieberman.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Presidential Candidates

I was discussing with a co-worker about the chaos that will reign in American politics in the near future with no clear front-runners on either side. For some reference, I’m putting together a list that we can all look back on and try to determine who came out of where once we have left the Bush II era behind.

Democrats:

1) Hillary Clinton – Sen. (NY). Presumed front-runner, although much debate as to whether she could win the general election.
2) John Kerry – 2004 candidate. Still strong, although still plagued by same weaknesses of 2004 campaign.
3) John Edwards – 2004 VP candidate. Came close to winning the 2004 nomination. Has been circulating himself well and storm to the front of the pack with a win in Iowa
4) Russ Feingold – Sen. (WI). Far Left candidate and will appeal to hard core Deaniacs. Probably not strong enough to get nomination, but could seriously affect the outcome of the nomination.
5) Mark Warner – Ex-Gov. (VA). Recently retired governor has a large war chest and is reasonably well liked in the South. More moderate than Edwards, he could win if the Democrats embrace a Bill Clinton type compromise candidate.
6) Christopher Dodd – Sen. (CT). Minor candidate. Probably will drop out after New Hampshire primary.
7) Joseph Biden – Sen. (DE). Minor candidate. Might be forced to drop out prior to any primaries due to tendency to place his foot in his mouth.
8) Bill Richardson – Gov (NM). A strong Hispanic candidate and former Clinton era cabinet official. Richardson has had fluctuating popularity and is probably far behind in money collected, but he could be a very viable candidate if immigration becomes the touchstone of 2008.
9) Al Gore? – Gore has denied that he is running, although if the Democrats fail to capitalize on the opportunities in 2006, he may enter the ring to try and rescue the party.

Republicans:

1) John McCain – Sen. (AZ). McCain never stopped running in 2000. While popular with the Media and some moderates, McCain’s love of first amendment regulation has angered the base. He may not be able to sway enough of the base to secure the nomination, although he could probably peel enough Democrats to win the general election.
2) Rudy Guliani – Ex-Mayor (NY). Rudy has yet to declare himself, but he is widely expected to dip his toe into the waters soon. His socially liberal positions don’t sit well with some in the base, but many love his direct and powerful leadership style. He could be a strong spoiler if he chose to enter (read: potential VP candidate)
3) William Frist – Sen. (TN). Frist is abandoning the Senate to devote his full attention to running for President. His record in the Senate is rather wishy-washy and he has watery personality, but he might appeal to Southerners. He would actually be better served to run for governor of Tennessee, where he is very popular, and get some legislative muscle under his belt before running for President.
4) Mitt Romney – Gov. (MA). Romney is socially liberal but conservative economically. He has done well in the heavily Democratic Massachusetts and it could springboard him forward. However, there has been some question as to whether the Christian Coalition will rally behind a Mormon candidate. This could hurt Romney in the Bible-Belt states.
5) Newt Gingrich – Ex-Congressmen (GA). Newt has resurrected himself from the ashes, decrying the spending and foreign policies of the current administration. He still carries a lot of baggage and will probably not do well outside of some Southern states unless Congressional malfeasance and pork become the center of the debate.
6) Sam Brownback – Sen. (KS). A minor candidate who will appeal to the conservative Christian Coalition. He might stir here and there, but it not a real threat to get the nomination.
7) George Allen – Sen. (VA). Economically conservative and socially more conservative than most of his rivals, Allen could carry himself far if he could find a way to distinguish himself. However, he is the candidate most in the Bush mold at the moment and even Republicans are getting tired of the Bush mold.
8) Mike Huckabee – Gov. (AR). Another undeclared candidate, but one of the few Washington outsiders that might make a good run. Conservative both economically and socially, Huckabee could claim knowledge of how to efficiently run a government as he has overseen a successful economic recovery in Arkansas.
9) Rick Perry – Gov. (TX). Bush’s former Lt. Governor who has become more popular in Texas than Bush was. Perry could bring many of the same qualities as Huckabee to the table, but he will become strongest if illegal immigration comes to the fore again as his policies of border enforcement have been reasonably popular throughout the Southwest.

I’m sure there are others that I have forgotten, but I think these 18 represent the largest runners in the field at this particular time.

Friday, July 21, 2006

Waiting for Ezekiel

As I am nearly finished with the Left Behind books (at least the main series) I can understand some of the fervent desire among many that the war in Israel is the beginning of the War of Gog, which many Christians believe is the last major event before the Rapture and the Tribulation. However, it always bothers me when people allow their desires to cloud their judgment. A simple examination of the nature of the prophecy gives an excellent indication that not only is this not the beginning of the war, but that we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.

The thing that drives people the most is the knowledge that Russia and Iran have recently formed a strategic alliance. As Russia and Iran are mentioned as the primary players in the war, it’s easy to get carried away and think that they are the singular forces. However, we forget that there are several other prominent members of the alliance: Turkey (Gomer, Beth Togarmah), Libya (Put), and Cush (modern Sudan and Ethiopia). Libya has been cowed as of late to almost a non-entity, Sudan and Ethiopia are in the midst of civil wars and steadily becoming radical Islamic states (similar to Taliban Afghanistan), and Turkey is still a predominantly secular state, worried more about smoothing things over and becoming a member of the EU than anything else. Even Russia herself has no geopolitical reason to launch a massive invasion of Israel at the moment. She is still concerned in getting influence through proxies like Syria (with whom Russia recently signed a large military contract with). None of these countries (with the exception of Iran) is any position to band up and launch a massive ground invasion of Israel at the moment.

A second flaw is the geographic nature of Israel at the time of the invasion. Ezekiel 38:8 notes that the Jews have regathered into the land and have settled to the mountains of Israel. Israel is rather hilly country but the “mountains of Israel”, as often quoted in scripture, specifically refer to the territory of Ephraim and Benjamin. This region is currently under the dominion of the Palestinians under the name of the West Bank. Israel has not even fully received her inheritance of the land yet. What’s more, the Jews themselves have not even fully regathered to Israel yet. The total Jewish population of New York is still greater than the Jewish population of Israel. I myself don’t believe that we have fully seen the fulfillment of the prophecy of the Valley of Dry Bones (Ezekiel 37:1-14). If we are still in the works on that prophecy, how can we even hope to be ready to move on to Ezekiel 38 and 39?

A third point is the state of Israel’s affairs. At the time of the attack, Israel lives at peace and in a land of unwalled villages. Many scholars have tried to argue that Israel has been more at peace than any other time in her history starting in the late 80s. Yet they have been undergoing continuous suicide attacks from the Palestinians and numerous raids and harassment from Hezbollah. The DMZ of the Golan Heights is one of the most armed places in the world and Israel is in the process of building a large wall around her territory, especially in the region of Jerusalem. At no point would any person living in Israel stand up and say that they are living in a state of peace and safety.

Yet, I am not willing to say that we are not seeing prophecy fulfilled. I have no major rationalization for my feeling, but as I have alluded to in previous posts, I believe this new war could be the fulfillment of the prophecies of Amos and could spill over to some of the prophecies of Isaiah. Notable in their absence among the invaders in the War of Gog, are all the immediate neighbors of Israel. Yet all of these (with the exception of Egypt) are mentioned in Amos. The first two chapters of Amos imply that all the nations surrounding Israel have committed three major sins and that the fourth sin will bring about the judgment of God. Damascus (Syria) will be consumed with fire; Gaza (the Philistines aka the Palestinians) will be wiped out; Tyre (southern Lebanon) will have her military destroyed; Edom, Moab, and Ammon (Jordan) will be overrun and destroyed.

Israel has endured three major wars with Syrian and Jordan (1948, 1967, and 1973). The Palestinians formed themselves as a military force through the PLO in 1964, but did not directly assault Israel until the 1970’s, choosing instead to act through small (but highly visible) terrorist attacks. They attacked Israel in the Lebanese Civil War (1982) and have brought about armed uprisings through the First and Second Intafadas (1987, 2000). Lebanon has existed predominantly as a Syrian and PLO proxy through her wars with Israel. She existed as a staging area for PLO and Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the 1973 war and fought against Israel when she was forced to invade in both 1978 and 1982. Only through Israeli occupation (which ended in 2000) has southern Lebanon managed to gain any form of stability. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces six years ago, Hezbollah have entrenched themselves and will not be driven out quietly.

Now, could I be wrong? Sure. Scripture never mentions the influence of Persia on affairs during this war (and everyone knows Iran is involved in this one). What’s more, Syria and Jordan are not directly involved in the current war (although Syria is funneling weapons to Hezbollah). Israel may beat down Hezbollah and Hamas and then turn back leaving things unresolved. But my gut tells me that things are not going that way. Israel is not going to stop until they are satisfied that they will be left alone and that just won’t happen until Hezbollah and Hamas (indeed, all of the Palestinian groups) are destroyed.

I believe that the war will continue and eventually Syria will be dragged into it, if only to protect their proxy interests in the form of Hezbollah. I don’t know what could bring Jordan into the fight, unless there is a successful coup against King Abdullah II. If his (and most of his government’s) influence were removed, most of the Jordanian people would immediately rush to support a Palestinian war effort against Israel. Perhaps a military coup will occur, under the auspices of Hamas. Yasser Arafat tried to overthrow King Abdullah I many years ago and failed. Perhaps a second stab at things will succeed. Once all her neighbors are against her Israel may be forced to turn to unconventional weapons, which will bring loud condemnation from the world. But if they are successful and Israel claims the land of Syria, Jordan, and the occupied territories, and then signs a security pact with the liberated government of Lebanon, Israel could well be on her way to securing a land of peace, untroubled by fears of attack. Then I believe we can enter into discussions about the invasion of Gog.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Iran's Plans

Someone made an interesting comment on the blog lgf the other day that got me thinking. This person noted that the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, sent President Bush a letter a little while back encouraging him to convert to Islam. There was something in the letter about having 90 days to think about it. The 90 days expire on August 8. Then, Iran has stated that they will respond to the West’s proposals on their nuclear program on August 22.

Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.

This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.

Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.

Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.

Thursday, July 13, 2006

References

Just a quick thought by me that I mentioned during our Bible study today. If you want a possibility as to where the current hostilities in Israel are leading, read Amos 1-2 and Isaiah 17. There might be a couple of other chapters that are relevant, but I think these cover the basics. Of course, I could be way off base and things get resolved nicely. But I've got something tickling the back of my brain on this one.

Just a hunch.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Two Fronts

Two down, two to go. This morning, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon (or at least the part controlled by Hezbollah). At this point, Israel is now at war with two of her immediate four regional neighbors. Or if you would like to view it in historical Biblical terms: Israel is now at war with the Philistines and Tyre and Sidon.

Israel is currently not at war with anyone over in the West Bank, which is still nominally under the control of Fatah. However, Israeli forces are fairly concentrated there and only an invasion by Jordan would really ignite a conflict there and Jordan’s government is still pro-West (and therefore willing to ignore Israel at the moment).

Israel is also technically not a war with Syria yet. However, as Hezbollah receives the majority of its support from Syria (with weapons and support via Iran) it is probably only a matter of time before Syria feels compelled to declare war as well. That will be when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Unlike the terrorist organizations, Syria has a conventional army and air force. They also may have a large supply of chemical weapons, whether developed on their own or from Iraq, which could be loaded onto scud missiles (of which Syria has a lot).

Syria may bide her time a little bit to see how the incursion into Lebanon goes. Their first desire is to reclaim Lebanon as a territory, which they lost last year in the Cedar Revolution. Anything that allows them to reestablish themselves as a regional power will take priority first. I still believe that Syria believes they must act in a complete surprise attack with overwhelming firepower to even have a prayer of defeating Israel. I also believe that such an attack would fail and if Syria chose to use chemical weapons, Israel would respond by turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.

The storm clouds of war are getting darker and thicker.

Thursday, June 29, 2006

Israel Realizes It's at War

For one brief moment, it appears that Israel has finally realized that they’ve been at war for the past several years. Yesterday, Israel invaded Gaza in response to a Palestinian raid into Israel that killed two soldiers and kidnapped a third (never mind the hundreds of homemade rockets that Hamas lobs into Israeli towns). Meanwhile, the Palestinians are crying foul for Israel finally acting like any sovereign nation would when they are attacked by a foreign power.

If a company from the Mexican Army drove over the border and killed national guardsmen in Arizona and took hostages back to Mexico and had fellow Mexican companies firing rockets into the adjoining towns in Arizona, I don’t image that the Federal government’s response would be to say everything is okay and let’s talk. It would probably be a race to see if a portion of the US Army or the rest of the Arizona National Guard invaded Mexico first. Given our previous experience with Mexico, I’m not sure we would stop until we had Mexico City at full surrender and then we would demand concessions (most likely Mexican territory).

Yet in all this, the rest of the world acts as though Israel is the warmonger and the Palestinians are these weak, helpless individuals that never did anything wrong. Its very sad and also very insulting to treat an adult population that is fully capable of making its own decisions like two-year olds. The Palestinian people, fully cognizant of their actions, elected a terrorist group to be their government and elements of that government have committed acts of war on a country that this same government refuses even the right to exist. Israel is fully justified in whatever force they chose to use to get their soldier back.

In fact, I fully believe that there will be a time in the near future where the light bulb will go on in the minds of the Israelis and when they go to war again, they will not stop with attacking Hamas elements. They will not even stop with occupying Gaza and Judah. They will physically expel the Palestinians, forcing them out to Iran, Egypt, Iraq, and any other country that will take them. Of course the world will scream about the barbarity of this act and anti-Semitism will reach a fever pitch around the world (even in havens like the US and Australia), forcing an even greater exodus of Jews to Israel. Of course, Israel will have all this new land to colonize, so they’ll have lots of room for the refugees.

Crisis is coming and it is coming by a people finally picking themselves off the mat and just saying “enough.”

Friday, June 23, 2006

Waiting for the End

I’ve been reading the Left Behind series lately. It’s actually been pretty good with a fairly well engaging plot. It’s a little preachy but I think that’s hard to avoid given the subject matter. I’m on the sixth book right now and I think I have a good chance of polishing that off by this weekend. But reading this series and some of the other things that I’ve noticed while reading my blogs amuse me with how much people are hoping/expecting for the end of man’s dominion of Earth.

Of course, Christians have been doing that for a long time, but it seems that the whole society has been even twitchier about it for nearly 15 years now. I would place the principle portion of blame on three distinct events. The first is the refounding of Israel in 1948. The second is the calculations of Bishop Usher, in which he calculated that God created the Earth in 4004 BC. The third is a book published by Hal Lindsey called The Late, Great Planet Earth that postulated that the rapture would occur in 1988. Obviously, Mr. Lindsey was incorrect, but that began stirring up a lot of things.

People began to note things like President Bush (the first) talking about a New World Order and an alliance of nations. The various religions of the world began having discussions with each other in the Council of Churches. New Age thought began hitting mainstream. People began to sit up and take notice of them and there was a natural Christian blowback.

I remember another book that was published discussing the possible end in 1994. Although, surprisingly, there was very little discussion about it in 1997, which would have been the actual year 6000 if Bishop Usher’s chronology had been correct. Then there was all the hype around the year 2000, plus the recent publishing of both the Left Behind series and Joel Rosenberg’s Ezekiel series (Rosenberg has interesting insight, but his narrative style is a bit tedious for me).

As I have stated in earlier posts, I think additional events happening in Israel and around other areas of the Middle East are going to continue to feed into this trend and End Times predictions. There might even be a non-Christian tie in, as we get closer to the end of 2012 (which is where the Mayan calendar stops). But, in the end, I think all these events will pass and nothing will happen. I personally believe that the rapture and the return of Christ is still quite a few years away and that everything will happen when people are least expecting it. Not that I wouldn’t mind being wrong, but quite frankly, there is too much in the Bible talking about how things will happen when we are least expecting it (and least prepared for it).

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Ohio Confusion

I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor. If this truly is what was on RFK Jr.'s mind, or any other outside Democratic operatives mind, they are the most stupid people on the face of this Earth.

Anyone who has spent any time in the this state for the past few years knows that the group of Republicans who control the top offices in the state are a group of lazy fat cats, who swap jobs every four years with each other to avoid the appearance of individual kingdoms. Then, on top of that, the current Republican governor (Bob Taft) is the least liked governor in the entire country (polling between 12 -20% approval). Taft is corrupt and the reek of scandal has tainted all those around him. All Ted Strickland needs to do to defeat Blackwell is keep his mouth shut (except to remind people of the corruption in Columbus) and breathe.

Yet, we see the possibility of the DNC coming in and screwing things up by reviving the "we was robbed" hysteria. Why? The prevailing theory is that its because Ken Blackwell is black and that he might peel off enough of the 90% African-American voters who normally vote Democratic to push him over the top and make further GOP inroads into the African-American community. Except that it won't happen and if Democrats continue to think in this racial manner, rather than appreciate the ability of the voters to think for themselves, they will start losing their block voters. Mr. Blackwell is extremely conservative and I highly doubt that any of his ideas will play well in the African-American community.

So the 90% is safe, assuming the Democrats don't push them into a state of disgust with them that they just stay at home. Discression is the better part of valor. Sometimes the donkeys need that whispered in their ears from time to time.

Monday, May 15, 2006

Baby's Here

I know blogging has been light, but its been a wreck at work and now the baby is here. She was born at 1:24 pm on May 11, 2006. She was 20.75 inches long and 8lb 8.8 oz. For those close to us who would like to see a picture, go here and enter the pertinant information. I'll try to keep everyone abreast of the situation, but these will be some long nights. :)

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Anti-Illegal Elections

Well, its election time here in Ohio. We have no non-partisan issues, so Mrs. X will be staying home today (she’s still pregnant by the way). I am a registered Republican so I’ll be voting in the primary when I get off work. Most of the races are pretty cut and dry. We’ve got a couple of local races where I’m still tossing one candidate vs. the other. The big one is the governor’s race: Blackwell vs. Petrio for the Republican ticket. Blackwell is polling ahead of Petrio and Petrio’s last campaign ad reeked of desperation so it probably doesn’t really matter whom I vote for. Blackwell will win the nomination and be down anywhere from 7 to 15 points to Ted Strickland five months out.

Meanwhile, ANSWER (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), a socialist workers group, organized a large protest with immigrants and has probably done more to hang them out to dry than any other event. Reading a few blogs from San Diego and Los Angeles, where the boycott had the widest participation, there seemed to be very little overall impact to businesses. Some inconveniences were reported, but nothing ground to a halt.

However, some snooping around to businesses that had significant percentages of people not showing up for work showed that the managers were not overly concerned. In fact, most responded that they would be firing a number of those who did not come in. Sadly, there is a feeling that you can just plug and chug. Someone who is more appreciative of the job can replace anyone who isn’t working out.

Worse for the immigrants than just the loss of their jobs is the public perception that has no entered in the thought process of most Americans. The winds were starting to blow against illegals, especially after many of them began demanding amnesty and reward for flouting the laws of this country. The biggest outcry has come from people who recently entered this country legally and have been going through the heavy bureaucratic red tape trying to get what these other folks are demanding to get easily. They have not helped their case by including members of fringe groups who go around waving Mexican flags and demanding that California and Arizona be returned to Mexico. The image of the Mexican flag over an upside-down American flag still burns rather hot in some people’s minds.

The boycott also called up what some will use as a powerful anti-illegal statistic. Los Angeles Public Schools reported approximately 25% absenteeism yesterday. Some of that were probably kids taking advantage of the situation even if they are not children of illegals. But throw in those children of illegals who did show up and 25% is probably a reasonably accurate number of the children of illegals (whether the children are citizens or not) who are in the school system of LA. The education budget for LA is approximately $13 billion. This means that anti-illegal groups are going to be talking about the over $3 billion that are spend educating the children of illegals in LA alone. If that statistic gets out to Joe and Jane six-pack of the mid-West and the South, guess what kind of hammer is going to be brought down on the local school boards?

Thus, by marching and attempting to demonstrate their power, power that is predominately an illusion due to the servitude that most are held in through fear, many illegal (and even non-illegal) immigrants are going to have some very hard times ahead. Arizona is already drafting legislation to create serious punishment and border enforcement for immigrants. The Democratic governor has promised to veto it, but the Republican congress is also crafting a ballot initiative to perform an end-around around that.

There have also been whispers that the minutemen or some other anti-illegal immigration group may field a third party candidate to get their concerns heard. When polled in Arizona, New Mexico, and other border states, a hypothetical third party candidate running on this issue does as well as a theoretical Democratic candidate and cuts deeply into the Republican base. Its an issue that cuts both ways and it’s not something that is going to go away anytime soon.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

One Step Closer

This little bit of news caught my eye this morning. Of course, its glossed over with the typical tragedy of war and occupation, but it was the fact that the international community as well as the local officials that want to see the city rebuilt even beyond a simple archeological attraction. Still, I think its going to be a while before we can call this the Williamsburg of the Middle East ;)

If Iraq ever splits up, as I postulated in a previous post, look for Babylon to be declared the free city of the Middle East, especially once Jerusalem fully falls into Israeli hands.

Monday, April 10, 2006

Hollywood Fantasyland

Sorry for the long delay but I've been a bit out of the blogging mood. Plus, its been all baby, all the time in my mind and Mrs. X provides much better commentary on that than I do.

The West Wing has been referred to as “if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.” Last night, Hollywood stepped in again and tried to claim that they were still in touch with the American electorate. To make a compelling storyline for this season’s election, they decided they needed to show a liberal Democratic candidate win the White House against a moderate conservative who was going to win California, thus proving that the country is more liberal and that a Democrat can win the White House without winning California.

Their plan for this involved a standard electoral map from the 2000 election with swaps in six key states: California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, and South Carolina. They also had this moderate Republican win Maine and Vermont but those electoral votes are small enough that it was only to make it more dramatic at the end.

That California and Texas would swap colors is possible, but rather unlikely. California has been receiving more and more liberal Easterners, inflating its population and driving it more to the left. Texas, meanwhile, hasn’t gone for a Democrat since it voted with the rest of the South for Jimmy Carter in 1976. But, Texans are definitely puffed up when it comes to native sons. A liberal candidate from Texas has a much better shot at winning the state than say a liberal from New England.

The idea that Santos could win Arizona and Colorado is tied into the mistaken idea of race block voting. Because African-Americans tend to vote 90% Democrat, there is this mistaken belief that Hispanics and other minority groups are this big voting block where if you convince one, you win them all. In fact, the two most recent elections showed that Hispanics especially are very nuanced and split along many different lines depending on what issues are important to them, much like many portions of white America. BTW, Colorado hasn’t gone Democrat since 1992.

Missouri has been a bellweather state for a long time. However, it has been trending more Republican over the last four years. In terms of the state of the country, a state like Ohio is a little more indicative of the mood of the country. Its fun to stick with trends so it’s easy to see why the writers gave Santos Missouri, however, in a real election, if Santos had won Missouri, he would have probably also won Ohio and Florida, ruining the storyline.

South Carolina is another non-sequitor. SC hasn’t voted Democrat since 1976, even when Bill Clinton won several states among the old Confederacy. Simply because a candidate visits a state many times during a campaign, that doesn’t mean you can necessarily reverse overlying trends. Again, if a Democratic candidate could carry a conservative state like South Carolina, they should nail states like Florida and Ohio, where the vote is much closer.

The producers of the show claim that up until John Spencer died, they were planning to have Vinick win the election. But when they were forced to write the death of Leo into the show, the writers decided that it would be too much of a downer if Santos lost his running mate and the election in one night. Actually, I think it would have been more real and would have given the show a biting edge that it once had back in the first four seasons. Your side doesn’t always win and those are the breaks. When it rains, it pours, etc. Of course, despite their claims, the way the show has laid itself out since the beginning of the season has presented a strong case that they were going to let Santos win from the beginning. So their explanation doesn’t exactly hold water in my mind.

I have no real problem with Santos winning, except for the fact that it seems so repetitive of Bartlett storylines. My only real problem is the manner in which it was done. The whole thing smacks of laziness on the part of the writers and only further exacerbates the cry of Mrs. X and myself, “Bring me the head of John Wells!”