Clam Chowder Vs. Grits

Super Bowl LI will kick off around 6:30 between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. New England features Tom Brady going for his fifth ring and a bit of personal redemption against Roger Goodell, who tried to have Brady suspended for the whole season. On the other side, you have the Falcons in the Super Bowl for only the second time and looking for validation as they were somewhat dismissed for the majority of the season.

First, offense. I would give the Falcons the slight edge on offense because they have a number of good receivers and an incredibly pounding running game. But the Patriots are no slouches when it comes to comes to offense either. They may not have quite the names or the flare that the Falcons do, but they are a good solid offense and Tom Brady usually doesn't make mistakes with the ball. All things being equal though, the Patriots need to jump into the lead and keep it. If the Falcons have any kind of a lead going into the 4th quarter, they are going to pound the Pats defense with the double running game and that will bleed clock and almost certainly end in points of some kind.

Second defense. The Patriots have the advantage here. They are not a flashy defense but they are somewhat effective. What helps them most is that the Patriot offense stays on the field a lot. It's when Brady and Co. get caught in a few three-and-outs that the cracks that they do have get exposed. Their risk of exposure here is in how close the game gets. If the Pats jump out to a big lead and the Falcons play catch up, that takes away a major part of the Atlanta drain game and the Patriot defense will probably hold up. If the Falcons run the ball, they will eventually get tired and begin to get gashed to hell.

The Falcon's defense is going to have to rely on a bend and not break strategy I think. They're not good enough to play straight and I don't think they're going to get direct pressure on Tom Brady. They'll get to him on occasion, but he's going to be able to get the ball out most of the time. What I think they need is to focus on keeping the Patriots out of the end zone, forcing them to settle for field goals and maybe trying to squeeze something in and getting a lucky pick. They are also going to have to rely on their own offense to score a number of points (because they are going to give up some) and to bleed the clock so that they are not completely dead on their feet if Brady needs to make a long drive at the end. I favor the Patriots defense, but neither one is the type of scary defense that is going to rank with the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens.

Special teams are a bit of a wash as I think the Falcons have more talent there but the Patriots are more likely to be smarter there. There's always a chance for a Special teams play breaking through, but I wouldn't bet on it this time.

On the whole, I think this is going to be a story of two offenses slugging it out and that leads to a higher scoring game. Atlanta has a better offense but the Patriots are more experienced. I favor experience. Every Patriots Super Bowl has been close and I don't see any reason why this one would deviate from that. It may not come down to a game winning drive at the end, but I think there is a good chance that it will come down to who has the ball last and in that case, I trust Tom Brady more than I do Matt Ryan.

Pick: New England Patriots

Side note, my square in the office Super Bowl pool is NE - 1, Atl - 4. So here's hoping for lots of TDs and few field goals.