The 13th Baktun

Some mood music for you:





The horror... the horror...

People Are Strange

This song is my unofficial opinion of most of humanity (including myself):

A New Pharaoh

There has not been a Pharaoh ruling Egypt since Augustus Caesar ordered the execution of Ptolemy XV Caesarion in 30 BC; although some might argue that Gamal Abdel Nassar came very close. That seems to have changed with the new constitution ratified by the Egyptian parlament.

In the new constitution Egypt's president, Mohamed Morsi, has been granted sweeping powers that President's Nassar and Mubarak could only have dreamed of. It is not quite to the level of Pharaoh (as I don't believe he has been granted dynastic succession) but the powers are vast and the protesters filling the streets have been chanting against "Pharaoh Morsi" while they attack Muslim Brotherhood sites.

Unlike some of the other Arab Spring sites (such as Syria), I don't believe that the protesters will win if they move to take military action. But a civil war is certainly possible, which will disrupt Egypt and the whole region for quite a while.

Add to this potential civil, the actual civil war in Syria and the UN's recognition of Palestine as a non-observer state yesterday and you have a reciepe for some serious nastiness in the Middle East.

The one aspect that seems to have escaped people is the full implication of what UN recognition of Palestine means. First, it means that the Oslo Accords are officially dissolved. The PLO coucil will now operate as a legislative body and any new treaties will have to be negotiated with it.

Second, and with broader implications, Israel is no longer negotiating with a people group but a declared state. Israel has stated that under international law, they will move to openly annex all territory where Jewish settlements have been established in Judea and Samaria. This is likely to seen as an assault on Palestinian territory (as they claim all land lost in the 1967 Six-Day War) and will likely move to force international sanctions through the International Criminal Court (ICC) or move to open war with whatever partners they can find.

This grows even futher when you consider that Likud (the ruling party) has nominated a slate that is more conservative than they've had in years. If they get a plurality (and it is widely expected that they will) in the January elections, it will be seen as notice to the Arabs that they are ready and perhaps willing for a fight. More so with expectation that Iran will hit a critical milestone for the development of their nuclear arsenal in late Spring of next year.

Needless to say, I think it is going to get even uglier over there before it gets any better.

The Rains of Castamere

Very difficult not to just hum this tune randomly through the day.

So speaks the pride of Lannister.

Lux Aeterna

I should qualify that this is from Requiem for a Dream and not from 2001. An amazing piece of music.

The 51st State

Puerto Rico held a referendum yesterday and the news of that was somewhat lost amid the Presidential results.

The referendum was in two parts. The first part was whether to maintain their current status as a United States territory. The voters opted to terminate their status as a territory 53.99-46.01. The second part of the referendum was that if the majority opted to terminate the current status, they were to choose from three options: apply for statehood, independent nation status, or an independent nation with associated status with the United States (the US currently has this status with the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau). The voters opted for statehood with 61.15% of the vote. Associated free state came in second with 33.31% of the vote.

As such, the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico will draft legislation to be submitted to Congress applying for statehood. This bill will have to pass both the House and Senate and be signed by President Obama. I don't forsee anyone having a problem with accepting Puerto Rico as a full state after all this time so it is very possible that the 51st state will be admitted sometime next year.

Reelection

Blogger crapped out on me just before 10 last night so I was unable to do any additional updates, but there wasn't too much else to say.

For the second Presidential election in a row, I've not only been wrong, but very wrong. I had made the assumption that Mr. Romney would win based on a couple of key assumptions. First, that turnout for Mr. Obama would not be as high as it was in 2008. Voter enthusiasm for Mr. Obama seemed to be down and it wasn't hard to believe that what had been a D+7 electorate would reduce to a D+2 or 3. This may have in fact happened when you look at how much closer it was in terms of the raw numbers in each state.

The second assumption is the one that appears to have defeated me and several other pundits. Nearly every pollster was reporting a large volume of Independents supporting Mr. Romney. Mr. Obama won Independents in 2008 by several points but that had reversed itself in polling. It would appear that that was the mistake. Either Independents were not being honest in the various polls or their support for Mr. Romney was vastly overblown.

Either way, I was wrong and Mr. Obama has been reelected. Republicans maintained their control of the House while Democrats increased their strength in the Senate. For all practical purposes, this was a status quo election where the electorate opted to not rock the boat this time around.

Election Day

Today is Election Day and I'll be keeping my customary running commentary of the day.

7:00 AM Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, NH held their votes just after midnight and reported their results. Dixville Notch tied at 5-5 (it went to Obama 15-6 in 2008) and Hart's Location went to Obama 23-9 (Obama won there 17-10 in 2008). So Mr. Obama is currently leading in New Hampshire 28-14. The rest of New Hampshire polls close at 8:00 PM EST.

10:00 AM Early voting statistics are slowly leaking out for Ohio. Ohio doesn't report party affiliation so people are using county past history. In 2008, in counties that Mr. Obama won, early turnout was 24.8% of registered voters. Counties that Mr. McCain won had early turnout of 19.1% of registered voters.

This year, historicly blue counties are showing an early vote of 21.7% of registered voters while historically red counties are showing an early vote of 21.3% of registered voters. Again, we have no idea of what party affiliation is in these counties or any potential crossover support. Taking it as a whole, it suggests that Ohio will be close and probably called late tonight.

11:30 AM Anecdotal evidence from various coworkers has suggested that turnout is pretty heavy so far. No one reported on having to wait a very long time, like it was in the early voting period, but most people are reporting of seeing more people and having to wait at least a little bit due to volume.

2:15 PM Early voting numbers have been reported by party from Colorado.

Republican: 688,503
Democrat: 653,450
Independent: 547,437

Obviously we don't know what the breakdown is, but one would assume that this would be seen as an encouraging sign for the Romney campaign. (Of course, we all know what assuming does).

3:30 PM Got a meeting and then I'll be heading off to run an errand and then its off to the polling place to vote.

5:00 PM Number 404 in my prescint. Pretty busy but it moved pretty well.

6:00 PM Polls close in most of Indiana and eastern Kentucky. The states will not be called until all polls close at 7:00. I'll be curious to see what discussion is made about those states (if any) since they are generally expected to go for Romney.

6:10 PM Flipping around, it looks like FOX has stolen CNN's interactive map board. CNN is showing results from Kentucky, but are waiting until 7 to make the call.

7:30 PM Just got back from the Y. Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia have been called for Romney while Vermont has been called for Obama. Virginia and Ohio have not been called.

8:15 PM Maine, Massachussetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and Connecticut called for Obama. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Alabama, West Virginia, Mississippi called for Romney.

8:30 PM Arkansas called for Romney.

8:45 PM New Jersey called for Obama.

9:00 PM AP has called North Carolina for Romney.

9:10 PM Most of the plains states called for Romney. Obama takes New Mexico and New York. Michigan was called for Obama as well.

9:20 PM Pennsylvania called for Obama.

9:30 PM Wisconsin called for Obama.

9:40 PM Based on the various Senate calls, I'm guessing that the Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

9:48 PM CBS has called New Hampshire for Obama.

10:10 PM Blogger ate my last comment. The Senate is locked for the Democrats now. No calls are being made, but things are looking good for Obama in Florida, much to the surprise of just about everyone. If Florida goes to Obama, it's over.

Electoral Predictions

Since I've lost the ability to post pictures in IE7 (and that's all I have at work), I've had to create my predictions using 270towin. I've opted for three different scenarios:

The first scenario is the minimum scenario. I think this is the best that Mr. Obama is going to do tonight, and it's still a loss. On this map, Mr. Romney wins 285-253.

It is generally accepted that Mr. Romney is going to win all the McCain states, Indiana and North Carolina. After this, although the Obama campaign is denying it, Florida and Virginia are close to out of their reach as well. Mr. Romney has crossed the 50% threshhold in several polls and has maintained a small lead for several weeks.

The next level is New Hampshire and Colorado. Polls in these states have been tied or shown Mr. Romney with a statistically insignificant lead. But the trend has been towards Mr. Romney and voter enthusiasm (espcially as measured by early voting in Colorado) has been on Mr. Romney's side.

That leaves Ohio and Iowa. Iowa has been very close but neither side has been showing an edge. Ohio has been shown as being close but in Mr. Obama's column. However, in both states, the polling I've seen has been heavily dependent on Democratic turnout closer to the 2008 model. While I do not think it will be as Republican as the 2010 mid-terms, I think it will be close enough that Ohio and Iowa will swing to Mr. Romney.

The second scenario is my own personal gut feeling on how things will go if it is a good night for Mr. Romney. In this one, Wisconsin and Nevada swing to Mr. Romney as well as the states in the 285 scenario, giving Mr. Romney a 301-237 win.

Nevada is solely a gut feeling. Polling has been close but Mr. Obama has always maintained a lead. Unlike a few other states, I've not seen any significant tightening, although the numbers are close enough that a strong independent turnout in favor of Mr. Romney will tip the state into the Republican column.

Wisconsin is also close. It narrowly eluded George W. Bush's grasp twice and it has swung Republican (albeit narrowly) in the last few races involving local issues. Polling has been close, but the recent history of the state and the inclusion of Paul Ryan might be enough to tip the state red.

The third scenario is the Obama nuclear scenario. In this one, Mr. Romney wins a decisive win on the scale of what Mr. Obama won four years ago. I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, but based on a few of the news stories that have come out in the last few days, it is not impossible. In this one, several states (PA, OR, MI, and MN) that have not gone red since at least 1988, turn giving Mr. Romney a 360-178 win.

I only pick these states as polling has shown a potential tight race. Pennsylvania is close enough that Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan have campaigned in the state this past weekend. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine's second district have been somewhat close, enough to speculate that in a huge Republican turnout event, these states would flip over to Mr. Romney.

We shall see if any of these scenarios play out tonight. But, barring something completely out of left field, I think Mr. Romney will win, and become the 45th President of the United States.

Troubled Blue Waters

Despite the widespread damage, I think we can all be thankful that the effects of Hurricane Sandy were not as bad as they initially seemed to be. Clean up will take a while, but there doesn't seem to be anything damaged beyond the ability to repair.

Meanwhile, there is the matter of the election a week from today. For the longest time, Mr. Obama seemed to be narrowly ahead and holding off Mr. Romney. Now, things seem to have changed. Mr. Obama lost the momentum after the first debate and has failed in his efforts to get it back. Still, while the polls narrowed further, Mr. Obama still seemed as though he was in control of the situation to make it tight.

However, two bits of news have trickled out this week that are turning things a bit grimmer for Mr. Obama. The first is that whether because of money advantage or being able to redistribute resources, the Romney campaign is now investing money in blue states, both in advertising and GotV efforts. The two largest investments have been in Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is a frequent Rebublican trap as it always seems tantilizingly close, only to have Philadelphia snap it back to the Democratic column. Minnesota though it interesting. Minnesota hasn't gone red since the Nixon wave of 1972. This may be an advertising play into the bleed over markets of western Wisconsin and northern Iowa, but it has attracted enough attention that the Obama campaign has bought air time to counter the Romney ad buy.

The second, and more significant issue for Mr. Obama, is the Gallup report of early voting. Gallup is reporting in a broad poll that was done, that about 15% of registered voters have gone ahead and cast their ballot and that the percentage of early voting may rise to 33% of all registered voters. This is not groundbreaking as the percentage of votes cast in 2008 also had 33% of them being cast early. What is disturbing for the Obama campaign is that of those 15% already cast, Mr. Romney is leading 52-46. Even worse for the President is that among those who plan to cast their ballot early, Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama are tied 49-49. Mr. Romney is leading among those who plan to vote on election day 51-45.

Mr. Obama's strength in 2008 came largely through early voting. In Ohio, John McCain actually beat Mr. Obama in votes cast on election day, but Mr. Obama had already jumped out to a huge lead and Mr. McCain could not make up the difference. If Mr. Obama does not go into election day with the lead, he could be in real trouble.

One caveat to this analysis though. Gallup's report was done nationally and it is quite possible that most of Mr. Romney's support has come from states that he was going to win anyway. By my current calculation Mr. Romney is leading Mr. Obama 248-237 with six states in true toss up status (NH, OH, WI, IA, CO, NV). If any state outside of these six break against their current leanings, I think it will safe to predict an easy win for the man who does it.

Poll Closing Times

Now that we're close to the actual election, here's the list of the poll closing times so we can keep tabs on which states are next. All times are EST:

7:00 PM EST
Georgia
Kentucky
Indiana
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia

7:30 PM EST
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia

8:00 PM EST
Alabama
Connecticut
Deleware
Florida
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee
Washington DC

8:30 PM EST
Arkansas

9:00 PM EST
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota
Texas
Wisconsin
Wyoming

10:00 PM EST
Kansas
Montana
Nevada
Utah

11:00 PM EST
California
Hawaii
Idaho
North Dakota
Oregon
Washington

01:00 AM EST
Alaska

One minor note. Several states (Florida, Michigan, etc.) cover two time zones and will have polls closing at different times. Rather than posting two different times, I've listed the later poll closing times since the media will not call a state until all polls are closed. So, even if it's well known that Mr. Obama has won Michigan a little after 8:00 PM EST, they won't call the state until the polls are closed on the UP at 9:00 PM EST.

Philadelphia as New Orleans?

We are still five days out, but the cone track of Hurricane Sandy does not look promising for the city of Philadelphia. The center of the cone is tracking to the mouth of the Deleware River on Tuesday morning and if this holds (or keeps to something similar, Sandy could push significant storm surge up the Deleware River and into downtown Philadelphia.

Philadelphia obviously does not have the levy system that New Orleans has, nor is it below sea level. It is a major port with most of downtown being at or just above sea level. Any significant storm surge would meet little resistance as it comes up the river.

Making matters even more interesting is the fact that this storm is looking to come ashore one week before the election. If there is significant damage done to the area, it is possible that power might not be restored to sections of the Eastern seaboard by the following Tuesday. I don't know what kind of back up plans are in place, but alternate polling locations would have to be set up and those polling locations would have to rely on back up paper ballots.

This is obviously a worst-case scenario, but one to keep in mind as Sandy tracks closer to the US over the next few days.

Results

With several contests going on last night, there were multiple results.

First, the San Francisco Giants completed their second big comeback of the postseason, crushing the St. Louis Cardinals in game 7 to earn a date with the Detroit Tigers in the World Series. As the National League won the All-Star Game, the series will open in San Francisco tomorrow.

Second, the Chicago Bears used a brutal defense to beat the Detroit Lions 13-7. Chicago retains first place in the NFC North and more importantly, as Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall failed to score 30 fantasy points, I won my match-up for the week. This was only my second win of the season (2-4-1) but I'm actually not in last place in my division.

Finally, there was the debate. My reading on it seems that it was mostly a draw again. Mr. Obama seems to have been credited with the win, but it doesn't appear that in the immediate reaction that he was able to land any significant blows on Mr. Romney to move the needle much. CBS instant poll showed an Obama win 53-23-24 while CNN's instant poll showed Obama winning 48-40. CNN also had a poll showing that both men scored in the 60's on handling the job of C-in-C, while PPP had a poll showing that for independent voters, the more/less likely to vote for a candidate was 32/48 Obama and 47/35 Romney. CNN had one additional poll asking who the debate made you more likely to vote for: Obama - 24, Romney - 25, Neither - 50.

I did not watch most of the debate, but I did flip over for a few minutes during halftime of MNF. My own personal thoughts (aside from being bored listening to the men) was that Mr. Romney looked fairly confident and a little condescending towards Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama looked frustrated and a bit angry. He knew he had to land a hard blow to move the momentum back into his column and it appeared that he knew he wasn't getting it.

As I said yesterday, I expect the numbers on this debate to be much lower than the first two. I suspect that both candidates knew it too, giving even more rise to the idea that Mr. Romney was playing prevent defense and Mr. Obama was getting frustrated by his lack of ability to score a strong hit on Mr. Romney.

Fourteen days to go.

Final Debate Tonight

Tonight is the third and final debate between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. The subject of the debate is Foreign Policy and I would imagine that the events in Libya a little over a month ago will dominate the discussion.

I would expect significantly lower ratings for this debate rather than the first two.

First, anyone looking for reassurance in their leanings or curious about a candidate they didn't know that well should have been answered in the first two debates.

Second, Foreign Policy almost always rates lower in issues than economic issues so a number of people will by-pass as they are not interested in the subject matter of the debate.

Third, competition. This debate happens to be going up against both Monday Night Football (Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears) and Game 7 of the NLCS (St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants). With two fairly big sporting events to chose from, a number of people will turn elsewhere on the tube tonight.

Still, there should be some fireworks tonight as Mr. Obama is still trying to fully right the ship after the first debate. He staunched the bleeding in the second debate, but Mr. Romney seems to still have the momentum. Ideally, Mr. Obama needs a knock down as hard as the one he recieved in the first debate. Mr. Romney, on the other hand, just needs to land a few hard blows and not take too many (i.e. another draw) and he should keep himself in good position.

Even though I have no intention of actually watching the debate, I'll still look things over and try to do some sort of post-mortem.

2006 Redux?

Last night the Tigers eliminated the NY Yankees and won the AL Pennant. Also last night, the St. Louis Cardinals went up on the SF Giants 3 games to 1 and will look to close out their series tonight.

This would set up a rematch of the 2006 World Series which the Cardinals won 4-1. I'm sure the Tigers will be looking to redeem themselves this time around.

One other odd little point about the AL and NL Championship series. This may have been the first time that the last three World Series winners were represented in the Championship series. St. Louis is the defending champion and they are facing off against San Francisco, who won the 2010 World Series. The Yankees had won the 2009 World Series. Only Detroit was the oddball, having not won the World Series since 1984.

It wouldn't have been possible to get all four previous winners in the Championship series as the Philadelphia Phillies (NL) won the 2008 World Series. The best one could have done would have been to replace Detroit with the Boston Red Sox, who won the 2007 World Series.

Cutting the South?

A week ago, I read that Suffolk University was cutting operations in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. Now it is rumored that several PACs allied with the Obama Campaign are doing the same. Similar rumors are leaking out of Colorado as well.

If this is true, Mr. Obama is playing a dangerous game. The West Coast (78), New England (29), the Altantic Coridor (59), Illinois (20), Minnesota (10), and New Mexico (5) will net Mr. Obama 201 EVs. He is clearly expecting to hold the blue trio of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10), despite the Romney campaign mounting an assault on those three states. That takes him to 247. That then puts the onus of victory on four states: Ohio (18), Nevada (6), Iowa (5), and New Hampshire (4). This is not a large margin for error.

In fact, it effectivly puts the nearly the entire burden of reelection on holding Ohio. If Mr. Obama wins all the states mentioned above but loses Ohio, he only takes 262 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio, he must take either Nevada or Iowa to secure victory. A New Hampshire and Ohio only win would produce a 269-269 tie and throw things to the House where Republicans hold the majority by state allocation.

However, this is all conjecture at the moment. I highly doubt the Obama campaign, or the majority of it's PACs will openly concede either Virginia or Colorado, which are very close in the RCP standings. Conceding Florida would hurt a bit, but it would free up a large volume of resources as Florida is a very expensive media market.

Much remains to be seen over the next two and a half weeks as to how the campaigns conduct their strategies.

Second Debate

For the third debate in the row, I opted to watch baseball instead of the candidates. Watching the Yankees go down 3 games to 0 was far more enjoyable than watching two men bicker at each other.

Still, I caught some of the post debate reaction. The general thought seems to be that it was something close to a draw. CNN's instant poll had Mr. Obama winning 37-30 with the remaining thinking it was a draw, while a CBS poll thought that Mr. Romney dominated the questions on the economy.

The big talking point coming out of this debate seems to be the reaction on the Libya incident. Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama got after each other a bit and the moderator, Ms. Crowley, seems to have interjected herself in it to cut off the debate with an instant fact check. Watching the clip, I think this was a bit of a disservice to Mr. Obama. He seemed to be holding his own at that moment in the debate and would have scored easy points for simply deflecting Mr. Romney's accusations and making him look like a bully trying to turn American dead into a political football.

The appeal to Ms. Crowley and then her statement validating the President's argument had a bit of a "running to mom" feel to it. Regardless of whether or not the facts of the argument favored Mr. Romney or Mr. Obama (and that comes with an extreme parsing of the statement Mr. Obama made in the Rose Garden), the optics of that moment didn't help Mr. Obama and will probably keep the Libya topic in the news up until the next debate.

Overall, I doubt this debate will move the needle much in one direction or the other. Mr. Obama didn't hurt himself as he did in the first debate, but neither did it seem that he did anything that seriously blunted Mr. Romney's momentum. I'm sure that there will be many polls out soon, each saying that things are either swinging back towards Mr. Obama or swinging further to Mr. Romney (and possibly both).

Twenty days to go.

Confidence or Idiocy?

Suffolk University announced yesterday that they were suspending polling operations in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida as they felt that those states were going to be won by Mr. Romney and would only waste their money.

I don't know much about Suffolk University polling but this strikes me as very, very odd. I can understand North Carolina as I've felt confident that Mr. Romney would win their easily. But Florida and especially Virgina make little sense to me. Florida has always been a bit close and even if you were confident that Mr. Romney (or Mr. Obama) were to win there, why not keep the polling going as it is a good benchmark for the overall election?

Virginia makes even less sense to me. The strong Democratic presence Northern Virginia has made the state a strong purple, counterbalancing the natural Republicanism of the rest of the state. I've seen almost no polling that has Mr. Romney outside the margin of error in Virginia and even if you attempt to correct for any perceived Democratic bias in the polls, the race is still very close. In my thinking, announcing that you are not going to poll Virginia is nearly equivalent to washing your hands of the whole election.

Suffolk University is either very confident in things they are seeing on the ground, very strapped for cash and cutting costs in large states, or very stupid.

Big Bird... Seriously?

Mr. Obama's team has launched a new ad attacking Mr. Romney's proposal to cut funding for PBS:



I am a bit dumbfounded that this is an actual political ad. I like Big Bird a great deal and stand opposed to the cutting of funding to PBS (although Sesame Street's merchandising sales would more than keep it afloat if that ever happened), but this seems like a very trivial thing to try and make a campaign issue.

What's more, even if you did want to make an issue out of it, this seems like a silly way to go about it. I get that it's supposed to be sarcastic and the like, but Mr. Obama would have been far better served to note the miniscule percentage of the budget that funds PBS and use that to paint a class warfare attack on how poor children must suffer to pay for tax cuts to the wealthy or something like that. This feels more like something that SNL would put out.

Baseball Update

So far, the playing the first two games in the lower seed cities hasn't hurt the higher seeds too much.

In the National League, the Cincinnati Reds won both games in San Francisco and will resume playing tomorrow. They'll have three chances to win one game at home and advance to the NL Championship Series. Ideally, they do it in game 3 as that will be the game that I'm at.

Meanwhile, Washington defeated St. Louis in game 1 in Busch Stadium. Game 2 starts about 4:30 EDT this afternoon

On the American League side, the NY Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles in game 1 of that series, after waiting out a lengthy rain delay.

The lone exception to the higher seed winning is the Oakland Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers series. Detroit won both games at home and now just have to take one game in Oakland. This takes a little added depth when you remember that the Tigers will probably have Justin Verlander going to the mound again in Game 5. No matter where you play, I give the Tigers the edge in that game.

The Championship Series (for both leagues) start this weekend. Times are not set yet but if the NY Yankees advance, expect the prime time slots to go the AL. A Baltimore victory would probably have MLB tearing their hair out with the propect of no major media market teams left. I personally, would love that.

Going Old School

In the first season of Mad Men, the workers of Sterling Cooper are shown staying up all night and having a part to listen to the 1960 election returns on the radio. The final results weren't available until the next morning.

I was reminded of this scene when I saw this news story that AP has announced that they will not be conducting exit polling in 19 states on election night. The various networks use a combination of the real returns, exit polls, and turnout statistics to help them make a descion on when to call a state for a particular candidate. Without the exit polls, the networks will be relying mostly on the real returns, which will probably push the call of certain states until late in the night.

Now, one caveat in all of this. The news story does not mention which states are losing the exit polls. They could be canning polls in states like California or Alabama where everyone knows who the winner is going to be. However, the context of the article suggest that they will be cancelling the polling in a few close states which are going to have high absentee and early voting (such as Ohio). If that is the case, calls for these states are going to go late into the night, unless they are absolute blowouts for one side or the other.

*UPDATE*

I just found a list of the states:

Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

None of these states (and DC) should be in doubt as to who will win them, so I guess trimming the late night is still possible.

First Debate Beatdown

Mrs. X and I opted to watch the Reds and Cardinals last night rather than the debate, but I did have a comment page open on it and I read a few post debate analyses afterwards. Nearly everyone seems to be of the mind that Mr. Romney soundly defeated Mr. Obama in the debate.

The still pictures I've seen (and the small amount of video I caught while eating breakfast) showed Mr. Romney being quite agressive, hitting with a lot of facts and numbers. Mr. Obama also used a lot of facts and numbers, but was seen as looking very uncomfortable, shifting around a lot, and coming across as rather professorial. Being professorial isn't a bad thing in a job like the Presidency, but it is not the best quality in a debate. Animation and action always give the best impression.

Even the instant audience polls that CNN does showed a belief that Mr. Romney defeated Mr. Obama. Whether that translates into votes remains to be seen, but nearly all the pundits think that Mr. Romney will see a small bump in the polls over the next few days. That will probably dissapate by the time of the second debate.

The big question is how this will set up the final narrative. If Mr. Romney continues to do well and does well in the remaining debates, this debate will seen as the launching pad where he took over. However, if Mr. Obama rights the ship and fights Mr. Romney to at least a draw in the second debate, the narrative will be that Mr. Obama took a hard punch but got off the mat and faught back, relaunching him in his quest for a second term.

Less than five weeks to go.

Baseball Playoffs

Today is the last day of the regular season in baseball and things are still up in the air.

The National League is a bit more settled. The San Francisco Giants have won the West and the #3 seed. The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals have secured the wild card spots and will play each other on Friday in the one-game wild card match.

The only thing that is not settled in the NL is the seeding between the East champion Washington Nationals and the Central champion Cincinnati Reds. If Washington wins today (they are leading 2-1 in the bottom of the 6th at this writing), the Nationals take the #1 seed. Cincinnati can only secure the #1 seed if Washington loses and they defeat St. Louis tonight.

So, the odds favor Cincinnati playing San Francisco in the first round while Washington will square off against the wild card winner.

The American League is a bit more unsettled. The Detroit Tigers have won the Central division and the #3 seed and that's about all we can say.

In the East, the New York Yankees have a one game lead on the Baltimore Orioles. If New York wins against the Boston Red Sox tonight, they will win the East and the #1 seed. Baltimore will take a wild card spot regardless of whether they win or not. If the Yankees lose and Baltimore wins, there will be a tie atop the East. That the Yankees haven't clinched regardless, suggests to me that Baltimore would either win the tiebreaker or there would be a one-game playoff for the division crown.

In the West, the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers are tied with one game between them. The winner will win the division and the loser will take the wild card. If the Yankees win, the winner will take the #2 seed. If the Yankees lose, there will be a tie in percentage and it will come down to head to head record to see who gets the #1 seed.

My own guess is that the Yankees will end up with the East and the #1 seed and will host the wild card winner. Oakland is hot right now and are playing at home, so I would be inclined towards giving them the advantage in taking the West and the #2 seed for the right to face the Tigers.

We'll see how this actually plays out. Mrs. X and I managed to secure tickets to Game 3 of the Cincinnati first round series so we're excited about that. Hopefully the results will be better than a couple of years ago where the Reds were swept out of the playoffs by the Phillies.

*UPDATE*

National League is set:

#1 Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves/St. Louis Cardinals
#2 Cincinnati Reds vs. #3 San Francisco Giants

*UPDATE*

American League is now set as well:

#1 New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers/Baltimore Orioles
#2 Oakland Athletics vs. #3 Detroit Tigers

Of Polls and Pundits

Polls seem to be in the news a lot lately. I had a post not too long ago where I groused a bit about the quality of the sampling data in the polls, but grousing about polls in general seems to have spread to many places.

In the past couple of weeks, there has been some significant movement in the polls. Mr. Obama got a small polling bounce after the Democratic Convention. That dissipated after about a week to a tie. Now it seems that there has been some movement towards Mr. Obama, enough for the polling aggregate site Real Clear Politics to move Ohio to "Lean Obama".

The reaction to these polls has been heavy on the extreme ends. Supporters of Mr. Obama are crowing about the polls and all but declaring the race over. Supporters of Mr. Romney are dismissing the polls, with some even declaring that the polls are all rigged and only those by Rasmussen are worth anything.

The answer is probably somewhere in middle. No one can know what the final polling sample is and much of the statistical manipulation of the raw data is driven by the internal biases of the pollster. So it is probably true that many pollsters either actually think (or at least hope) that turnout will be similar to that of 2008.

On the other hand, reducing your scope to a single pollster (because you like their results), you blind yourself to broader trends. Even with a skewed poll, if the skew is relatively consistent, you can observe movements that generally reflect reality.

The only poll that really matters is the one that is counted on the night of November 6th, so any handwringing, knashing of teeth, or premature celebrating before then is just wasted effort. There are three possiblities of where this race is right now:

1. The majority of polls are right and Mr. Obama is winning the race handly.
2. The majority of polls are a bit off and the race is a statistical tie.
3. The majority of polls are way off and Mr. Romney is winning the race handly.

As I reminded Daughter X after one of her soccer games when she talked about how her team won the third quarter, it doesn't matter who wins a quarter. It only matters who's ahead at the end of the game. The real problem is that we are not sure exactly of what the field is like to determine how the final score will be resolved.

In 2008, there were 7% more Democrats at the polls than Republicans (39-32) with Mr. Obama also winning Independent voters. In 2010, Democrats and Republicans came to the polls in equal numbers (35-35). My own personal take is that Democrats will end up having a 2 or 3 point advantage in turnout, but I could be completely wrong about that. That also doesn't tell you if the votes will match the partisan split or to whom the Independent vote will break.

The best anyone can do is to sit back, relax, watch trends (both short and long-term) and go vote for their preferred candidate on the 6th.

Soviet Music

Say what you want about the Soviets, they did inspire some good music:

Let's Go:



Soviet National Anthem:



The Red Army is the Strongest:



Smuglianka:



Echelon's Song:



And as a bonus, a heavy metal remix of the Soviet March from Red Alert 3:

1979 Again

Yesterday, the American embassies/consulates in Cairo, Egypt, and Benghazi, Libya were stormed. The Egyptian riot destroyed a few things and burned the flag, but no one seems to have been injured in the melee.

Things were much worse in Libya. The ambassador, Christopher Stevens, and three marines were killed in the attack. It appears that they were taken to a separate building by Libyan security officials and then the mob was informed that there were Americans in that building. The mob stormed the building and killed those inside.

With these attacks, one can't help but be reminded of the Iranian assault on the US embassy in 1979. In that case, our people were taken hostage rather than killed, but the feeling is about the same. Of course, with no hostages, there won't be a botched military rescue effort, but that does not preclude the possiblity of things going south in any reprisal efforts.

Couple this with the public slap of Prime Minister Netanyahu, and yesterday was not a particularly good day for anyone in this country. With the possibility of more protests forming in North Africa, it doesn't look like things will be improving anytime in the near future.

Fantasy Freakiness

My fantasy league is run through CBSSports and one of the things CBS does is put a list of players with comments (both good and bad) during the week. It has me a bit unnerved that all of the comments are about players that I have.

In reverse order, the comments are about:
Donald Brown (RB-Ind) - back up running back
DeShawn Jackson (WR-Phi) - starting wide reciever
Michael Turner (RB-Atl) - starting running back
Aaron Hernandez (TE-NE) - starting tight end
Wes Welker (WR-NE) - starting wide reciever
Lions Defense - starting defense
49er's Defense - back up defense
Cam Newton (QB-Car) - starting quarterback
Darius Hayward-Bey (WR-Oak) - starting wide reciever
Carson Palmer (QB-Oak) - back up quarterback

It's actually even worse because the player that had dropped off the list with the addition of Palmer was Randy Moss, who I picked up as a back-up wide reciever. Hopefully all this attention means good things today.

And Now We Fight

With the close of the Democratic National Convention, we are now officially in to the Presidential race.

At the moment, just about everything is drawn even. Almost all national polls, and most battleground state polls show a statistical tie between President Obama and Mr. Romney. Some polls show Mr. Obama up a little while others show Mr. Romney up a little. At this point, it is all noise.

From a historical point of view, a tied race is not the best news for Mr. Obama. He has had the advantage in being able to spend campaign money while Mr. Romney has been unable until the Republican convention finished. That Mr. Obama has not been able to build himself any kind of significant lead would be troubling. Also troubling is that historically undecideds break towards the challenger. The idea is that if a President is doing a good job, less people are undecided and will voice their support for the President. If they are not sure, the generally opt to see if the other guy can do any better.

This is still a close race any anything can happen. But Mr. Obama is going to have put some blood, sweat, and tears into this race to win it. The generally panning reviews of Mr. Obama's acceptance speech are not the most auspicious start to the general campaign.

Likewise, Mr. Romney is not going to be able to sit back and just say that I'm not Barack Obama and expect to win. He will need to draw blood and risk getting bloodied himself if he wants to win. Mr. Romney has made large ad buys in a number of battleground states but has oddly omitted Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania from the ad buy. Even if he doesn't think he'll win any of these states, it would be beneficial to attack them, if only to spread Mr. Obama's thinning resources even thinner.

We have two months to go and it will be interesting to see how the battle tactics evolve as the field shapes up.

The Black Knight Rises

It's just a flesh wound.

Via TeeFury

Going Dark on Facebook

I avoid politics on Facebook, but I think this is funny.

For the Glory of Rome

I've been on a bit of a Caesar 3 kick lately and even dusted off the old game to play a bit here and there. But the background music helps to get you into the mood:

Type 1 (population 0-999)


Type 2 (population 1,000-2,999)


Type 3 (population 3,000-4,999)


Type 4 (population 5,000-6,999)


Type 5 (population 7,000+)


Long combat theme

A Good Callender Campaign

One of the oldest cliches in politics is that whatever election it is, it is now the dirtiest election ever. This is complete hogwash. Every election is dirty and it always has been. In fact up until this year, modern campaigns have been rather mundane affairs.

Real dirty campaigns are like those organized by James Callender. Callender was an independent publisher who attacked the Hamiltonian Federalists during the period of the Adam's presidency. He was hired by Thomas Jefferson during the campaign of 1800 and attacked Adams on monarchial grounds. After Jefferson won, Callender turned on him when he was not granted special favors for his services. It was Callender who published the details of the affair between Jefferson and Sally Hemings. Callender would later go on to accuse Jefferson of attempting to seduce married women and suppress pro-Federalist newspapers (how's that for a First Amendment violation?).

Fast forward to this year. Neither campaign has accused the other of fathering children with a mistress yet, but we have had some saucy accusations so far:

- Republicans openly mock Mr. Obama of eating dog while living in Indonesia.
- Mr. Biden has rhetorically accused Mr. Romney of wanting to re-enslave African-Americans.
- Mr. Obama has been accused of wanting to destroy all free enterprise.
- A PAC ad has suggested that Mr. Romney is liable in the death of a man's wife.
- It has been suggested that Mr. Biden is mentally incompetent.
- Mr. Reid has accused Mr. Romney of tax evasion.
- Mr. Obama has been accused of supporting the takeover/destruction of the US by Muslim extremists.
- Mr. Ryan has been accused of wanting to ensure that older people starve to death or die due to lack of medical care.

There are others, but this gives a flavor of what we are getting into. I don't think it has risen to the level of some of the older campaigns (yet), but we still have a good two and a half months to go. We'll see how long it takes for the modern Ms. Hemings to make an appearance.

Dr. Who Anime

I have no idea who created this but if you are a fan of anime and/or Dr. Who you will enjoy this. It is based on voice acting and plot themes from the Third Doctor (John Pertwee). I could have done without the scantily clad anime girl, but the rest is pretty good.

The Railroad Ticket

It was a bit of a surprise that as I was getting ready for bed last night, Mrs. X saw that Mr. Romney was announcing his Veep pick tomorrow. Based on the rumor information, I surmised that it was going to be Mr. Ryan and I can pat myself on the back for that one.

My only post on the VP was back at the beginning of April. I hadn't paid much attention to it because speculation was mostly pointless and I can't even remember a time when the VP pick had an actual impact on the race (outside of Mrs. Palin's selection four years ago). So I have no verifiable proof of my early Ryan advocation.

Of course, I use advocation loosely. I have no strong feelings towards the man one way or the other, but I felt that given the nature of this election and Mr. Ryan's credentials, he would be one of the best picks for Mr. Romney.

My thought process was as follows:

1. Romney had never worked in Washington and would be best served with someone with Washington experience.

2. Romney desperately needed someone that the Conservative wing approved of.

3. Romney needed someone with a penchant for economics, who was seen as pro-business as he was.

4. Romney needed a good attack dog. Someone who would go out and hit the Democrats as hard as needed and wasn't afraid of getting a little bloody himself.

Weighing all of these considerations in my mind, I though Ryan was the only candidate who fit this bill. Clearly I wasn't the only one who thought this way.

Now, does this mean it will help Mr. Romney get elected? I don't know. Some will be more inclinded towards Mr. Romney and some will be turned away. Only time will tell. Still, I can already tell that there's more interest in the VP debate between Mr. Ryan and Mr. Biden than there had been before.

Brave Selections

The Soundtrack to Brave is very catchy, especially if you like Scottish jigs and bagpipes.

This is "Touch the Sky", the openning credits song.


This is "The Games" when we have the set up for the archery contest. Wall o' bagpipes in this one.


This is "Song of Mor'du" a song the warriors sing as they dream of killing Mor'du.


This is "Show Us the Way" when Merida falls into Mor'du's lair.


This is "A Mhaighdean Bhan Uasal" the song Eleanor sings to Merida in a flashback.


This is "Learn Me Right", the closing credits song.

London Opening Ceremonies

Today marks the Opening Ceremonies of the 2012 London Olympics. Technically, the Olympics started two days ago with some opening group matches in women's soccer but no one is really paying attention to that. As far as everyone is concerned, everything kicks off today.

There's been a little bit of strife going on as several London unions (cabbies and police most notably) have gone on mini-strikes or threatened to because of how bad the conditions have turned with the influx of people to London for the games. A large segment of the British army has been brought in to London to aid the police in security. There have also been several arrests recently on terrorism charges (bomb making mostly) that may have included plans for the Olympics (authorities won't say).

Adding to this was Mr. Romney's comment that he wasn't sure if London was ready for the games. Mr. Romney has experience in these matters due to his running of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, but it likely would have been more tactful to not say anything. The British authorities are already stressed out that they don't need a bit of needling from someone who has already done the job.

I certainly hope that it will be a good games and an entertaining Opening Ceremony. I don't know if it's the bad vibes from the stuff mentioned above or what, but I can't help but shake the feeling that something bad might happen, if not tonight, then at some point in the games, much like the 1972 Munich games forty years ago. We shall see.

What Every Guy Thinks of Titanic

This is from How it Should Have Ended. It covers a few of the major problems that jump out at you when you see Titanic. It also shows how Rose is a complete moron.

Cooking Music

These are some of my favorites from Ratatouille. The first one is when Colette is showing Linguini the basics of the kitchen. I don't know if Colette or the music is supposed to be Catalian, but that's how I imagine it.



The second is "Special Order" and is a nice jazzy French tune. It reminds me a lot of Henry Mancini's Pink Panther music.



The End Credits also make a nice round up of the musical flavor of the movie.

Colorado Theater Shooting

Far more sophisticated blogs and news sites will do a far better job covering this, but I thought I would throw my own two cents in.

The alledged shooter, James Holmes, is currently in police custody. Just reading the surface stuff, this fellow appears to be both intellegent and highly disturbed. He obviously planned all this well in advance, striking a target he knew would be packed full of people. His use of armor suggest that he anticipated encountering counterfire (from either police or armed theater patrons) and he wanted to either survive or make sure that it took more than a lucky shot to stop him. He also set up an elaborate booby trap bomb system in his apartment to kill even more people once he had been taken down, one way or the other. The system is elaborate enough that the Denver bomb squad has requested additional assistance from the FBI in disarming the trap.

Naturally, there has been much speculation on his motives and ideology. ABC speculated that he might have been a member of the Tea Party due to a similar name (Jim Holmes) listed as an active member, but that James Holmes has been identified as a man in his 50's while the shooter is listed as 24. Other speculation has tied him to a James Holmes listed as a member of the Black Bloc, an anarchist splinter group of the Occupy movement.

Whatever his ideology, it can be agreed that he is a very dangerously disturbed man who should be locked away for a very long time.

Last report I heard was that the death toll was between 12 and 14, with the youngest confirmed death a six-year old child. May God guide the hands of the doctors to save the rest and comfort the loved ones of the slain.

*UPDATE*

The James Holmes in question seems to have enrolled at University of Colorado a year ago to pursue a PHD in neuroscience and dropped out last month. It has suggested that he may have brewed the gas that he let loose in the theater himself. The doctors treating the victims have been very careful and not simply assumed that they are dealing with either smoke or tear gas. No confirmation has been given about the nature of the gas, one way or another.

O Filii et Filiae

When going through the various Mystery! themes I like, I was reminded of my copy of Cadfael. The second piece on the CD is a chorus (The Clerks of St. Albans Abbey specifically) singing a traditional Catholic Easter piece called O Filii et Filiae (O Sons and Daughters), written in 1494 and based off a French melody. It is quite enjoyable to listen to.

The lyrics are as follows:

Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.

O filii et filiae,
Rex caelestis, Rex gloriae
morte surrexit hodie.
Alleluia

Ex mane prima Sabbati
ad ostium monumenti
accesserunt discipuli.
Alleluia

Et Maria Magdalene,
et Iacobi, et Salome
Venerunt corpus ungere
Alleluia

In albis sedens angelus
praedixit mulieribus:
In Galilaea est Dominus.
Alleluia

Et Ioannes apostolus
cucurrit Petro citius,
monumento venit prius.
Alleluia

Beati qui non viderunt
et firmiter crediderunt;
vitam aeternam habebunt.
Alleluia

In hoc festo sanctissimo
sit laus et iubilatio:
benedicamus Domino.
Alleluia

Ex quibus nos humillimas
devotas atque debitas
Deo dicamus gratias.
Alleluia

An English equivalent is as follows:

Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.
Alleluia, Alleluia, Alleluia.

Ye sons and daughters of the Lord,
the King of glory, King adored,
this day Himself from death restored.
Alleluia

All in the early morning gray
went holy women on their way,
to see the tomb where Jesus lay.
Alleluia

Of spices pure a precious store
in their pure hands these women bore,
to anoint the sacred Body o'er.
Alleluia

The straightaway one in white they see,
who saith, "seek the Lord: but He
is risen and gone to Galilee."
Alleluia

This told they Peter, told John;
who forthwith to the tomb are gone,
but Peter is by John outrun.
Alleluia

Oh, blest are they who have not seen
their Lord and yet believe in Him!
eternal life awaitheth them.
Alleluia

Now let us praise the Lord most high,
and strive His name to magnify
on this great day, through earth and sky:
Alleluia

Whose mercy ever runneth o'er;
Whom men and Angel hosts adore;
to Him be glory evermore.
Alleluia

Poll Frustrations

If you are a political junkie like me, one of the biggest things to play with is polls. Unfortunately, polls are also so easily manipulated based on the pollster's inherent bias, with the most common form being the weighting sample.

Weighting sample is a way that pollsters manipulate the data to make it conform to their expectations. For example, a pollster may get a set of data and his raw data says that the sample was 40% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 30% Independent. If he believes that he has oversampled Democrats and undersampled Republicans, he will apply some factor that will bring the sample more in line to his own expectations and thus be more believable.

In 2008, exit polls showed that the split among voters was 39% Democrat, 32% Republican, and 29% Independent. Mr. Obama won nationally by 7-points. However, in the 2010 mid-terms, voter split nationally was 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 30% Independent. Democrats, by in large, were defeated, with Republicans capturing many state offices and the House of Representatives.

From this we can see a significant swing in party affiliation in only two years. Independents remained stable (only shifting by one point) but Democrats dropped by four and Republicans increased by three. The conclusion that one is drawn to, is that predicting the final outcome is a shot in the dark, although one can expect the numbers to fall within a set of norms.

It is unlikely that Mr. Obama will be able to regenerate the same level of voter enthusiasm that he had in 2008 so the 39/32/29 sample represents an extreme Democratic end. Likewise, with a national race to motivate Democrats, it is unlikely that they will be as docile as they were in 2010 so the 35/35/30 sample represents an extreme Republican end. If I were a pollster, I would probably settle on something close to a 36/33/31 model until I saw something that prompted me to shift it to either the left or right.

Of course, most news outlets don't report the polling sample in the headline, they just give the overall number (Obama and Romney tied at 47-47, for example). Hence the frustration with trying to look at the public mood from polls. It does teach one to be skeptical of polls until you can dig down into the raw data and draw your own conclusions, which is a good life lesson in general.

Working Through Falken's Maze

From the best Hacker movie ever. Many childhood memories are dredged up by this music.

State Trends - July

Time for this month's update of state trends. There isn't much movement between this month and last month but this is all without the influence of the Obamacare decision. The shift between July and August could be dramatic, especially as things start to gear up towards the conventions.

The three changes I've made since June are that I've downgraded Michigan and upgraded Missouri and Arizona. There was a lot of polling around the middle of June that showed Michigan slipping into Toss Up territory. There was one poll that showed Mr. Obama with an 8-point lead, but the others showed him with only a 1 or 2 point lead and one poll even showed Mr. Romney up by one. All of these led me to downgrade Michigan to "Lean Obama" from "Likely Obama".

The Supreme Court's strike down of most of the Arizona Illegal Immigration law might motivate Hispanics in that state, but until then, the most recent polling has shown Mr. Romney's lead grow to over 10-points. As such, I bounced it up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".

Missouri is more of a feeling. Mr. Romney's lead in Missouri is only about 5-7 points according to recent polls. However, I've seen a couple of articles talking about how Missouri is no longer a bellweather but a red state. I've held that view for several years now. There has also been some discontented rumblings from Missouri Democrats, which suggests to me that they are starting to distance themselves from Mr. Obama. Given that, I thought it merited moving Missouri up to "Likely Romney" from "Lean Romney".

Everything else remains the same and I wouldn't expect too much movement until September, but a lot could happen of the next month if people start paying attention to the campaign earlier than usual.

Big News Day

It's a big news day today.

1. The Colorado wildfires continue to burn out of control. The Air Force Academy is now directly threatened as is most of the town of Colorado Springs if the fire comes much closer and manages to jump I-25. There have been some rather sick folk who have cheered the fire and hoped that it would continue until it burned down the Focus on the Family Campus and other Christian related structures. The Boulder fire is not much better as it climbs the ridge just to the West of that town.

2. The full House of Representatives will vote on whether to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress today. About a dozen Democrats have stated that they intend to vote yes. No whip count has been available for the Republicans, but it is somewhat expected that nearly all of them will fall in line with the leadership. What happens after the vote is anyone's guess. Most likely there will be a drawn out negotiation and then probably some sort of court fight over these documents.

3. The Supreme Court will release its ruling on Obamacare today. Speculation has been all over the map and about the only thing that people seem to agree upon is that Chief Justice Roberts is writing one of the opinions. The general assumption has been that it is the majority opinion that he is writing so most speculation has been that either the court split 5-4 for the conservatives or 6-3 for the liberals. I've seen it postulated that Justice Ginsburg is writing the other major opinion which has fueled speculation of a 5-4 Conservative ruling. Of course, whether this is to strike down the whole thing or just the mandate is also a matter of speculation. The opinion will probably be released around 10 am so this should be the first thing we hear about.

*UPDATE*

SC ruled 5-4 that Obamacare is constitutional, although the mandate is unconstitutional under the commerce clause. It survives under Congress' power to tax. Chief Justice Robers sided with the four liberals while Justice Kennedy sided with the conservatives.

*SECOND UPDATE*

The House voted 255-67 to hold AG Eric Holder in contempt of Congress. 110 Democrats did not vote, including the entire Congressional Black Caucus (who walked out before the vote). But 17 Democrats did vote with the Republicans. The House has now indicated that they will hire an independent counsel and challenge the citation of Executive Priviledge in court.

Hell in Colorado

Some bad fires have broken out over the past week in Colorado but yesterday things blew completely out of control.

The worst up until yesterday had been the High Park Fire in the mountains west of Ft. Collins. This fire has burned over 80,000 acres, destroyed over 250 homes and killed at least one person.

However, this changed yesterday when the Waldo Canyon Fire exploded. This fire started outside the city of Colorado Springs (second largest city in Colorado) on June 23 but was thought to be mostly contained on June 25. However, the winds whipped up that night and the fire has now crossed into the Mountain Shadows neighborhood of Colorado Springs proper. 32,000 people have been evacuated (including the Air Force Academy). More are expected to be evacuated as the fire progresses.

Also of concern is the Flagstaff fire. This fire is only 300 acres in size but it started just 2 miles outside of the city of Boulder and is progressing in that direction. It has only about one mile (thankfully unpopulated) to the summit of the ridge where the wind could jump it over the last mile into the city.

Bellweather State Mythology

One of the greatest myths that exists in Presidential elections is the idea of a historical bellweather state. Political analysists are always looking for an easy model for them to study that would allow them to make their predictions easier: "So goes Florida, so goes the nation", etc. In each individual election, yes there are probably several states that genuinely reflect the mood of the national electorate, but these states are not static. The national character changes just as state character changes. As such, calling any state a historic bellweather is foolish.

The historic bellweather state of the 20th century was Missouri. Starting in 1904, Missouri has gone for the winner of the national election in every year except 1956 and 2008. Missouri is nominally a southern state, even though it stayed with the Union in the Civil War. But they have enough northern influence that they trended Republican. However, whenever southern Democrats would rise up (or northern Democrats who embrassed the South such as FDR and JFK) and take the national leadership role (Johnson, Carter, Clinton), Missouri would fall back on it's Southern roots.

Yet ever since the 2000 election, Missouri has not felt like a state in play. The state has remained close, but it feels as though Missouri (like much of the south) is now just a red state and they just happened to be right in 2000 and 2004 because the Republican won. John McCain only won Missouri by about 4,000 votes, but with Barack Obama winning nationally by 7 points, if Missouri were a true bellweather, Missouri should have gone Democratic easily.

The only two other states that have a potential track record as a national bellweather are Ohio and Nevada. Going from the same 1904 benchmark that Missouri used, Nevada has had every election correct except 1908 and 1976. Ohio can actually stretch back longer to 1896 and only gets it wrong in 1944 and 1960.

Nevada has had a nice balance between a conservative ranching population, libertarian business folk, and a large blue collar working class population in Las Vegas. This has worked well in nearly every election and even 1976 was something of an aboration as Jimmy Carter failed to win any state west of Missouri save Texas and Hawaii. The only real threat to Nevada's status as a national bellweather is that her population balance has tipped in recent years with the explosion of growth in Las Vegas. This has increased the size of both the blue collar union population and Hispanics looking for work. These two increases have shifted the state to more of a Democratic footing. The only way that this will be tested this year is if Mr. Obama loses nationally but retains Nevada.

Ohio has been an important state to Presidential elections. Going back all the way to 1856, no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio. Ohio failed to get it right in 1944 and 1960, although Dewey only won Ohio by 0.37%. Nixon won by a more comfortable margin of 6.56% in 1960, although he lost nationally by 0.16%. The steady loss of manufacturing jobs from the north end of the state has resulted in a steady reddening of the state over the past few years. However there is still a large blue collar population who stick with their Democratic roots. They've also been aided by a small but significant growth in the liberal middle and upper class population around Columbus. Ohio could probably be best described as swinging easily with the economy. If things are going well, it sticks with the party in power. If the economy stinks, lets try someone else. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will go with the winner, although it makes for as good a trend as anything else.

In this particular election, I don't believe any particular state will tell you how things are going to go. It is better to look at things as a whole. 2008 was best defined by the fact that Indiana and North Carolina went blue. 2012 might be well defined as to how the race does in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan (either in that they change or to what percent they stay blue).

The Full Nixon

An old adage in politics: It's not the crime, it's the cover-up.

Operation: Fast and Furious was a government operation that has gone very, very badly. The operation was, in theory, an attempt to use American weapons to track, and be able to prosecute, the crimes committed by Mexican druglords. In its essence, a branch of the Department of Justice (ATF) authorized the sale of American manufactured weapons (assault rifles and such) on American soil (mostly in Phoenix) to known agents of Mexican druglords. These weapons would then be smuggled across the border and then be traced and tied to the various cartels when used.

Things blew up when an American border patrol agent, Brian Terry, was killed during one of these smuggling operations by the weapons in question. This caused a blow up because it exposed the operation long before it was ready and what the ATF did was technically illegal. However, the pebble that really started the avalanche was when the House Oversight Committee sent a request to the DOJ asking what they knew about the operation. On Feb. 4, 2011, the DOJ responded with a letter denying any knowledge of the operation. The committee went through the normal procedure of questioning the various ATF folks and found that someone in the DOJ did know about the operation and had signed off on it.

This started the climb up the ladder. Certain low level operators handed over things and gave testimony that this operation was known about at the highest levels (i.e. AG Eric Holder). Mr. Holder was summoned several times to testify and each time he evaded key questions. He promised to submit whatever documentation the DOJ had on the operation but those documents have not been forthcoming. Frustrated, the Committee scheduled a vote (for today) to hold Mr. Holder in Contempt of Congress in an attempt to force the handover of these documents.

At the eleventh hour, Mr. Holder petitioned President Obama to cite Executive Privilege over the documents in question. This request was granted. It is this point that may have turned this into a full Nixonian production. Only the President is covered by Executive Privilige. Cabinet folk and all other appointed positions are equally beholden to both the President and Congress. By invoking EP, Mr. Obama is stating that he was aware and personally involved in whatever these documents involve. Yet Mr. Holder has testified before Congress that the President had no knowledge of anything involving this operation. Someone is lying and now interest in these documents is going up as much as Congress' interest in the Nixon tapes.

The best case for Mr. Obama at this stage is that he is misapplying EP and it was an honest mistake. The EP is retracted or overturned and Mr. Holder will be held liable for anything incriminating found in these documents. Worst case scenario is that the President was directly involved in something illegal and that this is a full blown attempt to save himself (a la Nixon). If this is the case and the EP is overturned due to improper use (which again there is 1970's precedent for) and the documents show this, Mr. Obama could be set up for some very hard questions and potential criminal charges.

The one thing I am sure of is that there won't be any move towards impeachment unless Mr. Obama wins a second term. Even then, the Republicans won't do anything overt unless they have absolute concrete evidence of wrongdoing. The bad taste that was left in everyone's mouth following the Clinton impeachment left both sides wary of moving in this direction for purely political motives.

However, Mr. Holder may not fare so well. Much remains to be seen and I would expect a lot of courtroom fury over the next several months as well as a lot of annoying -gate references.

Rats Off the Coal Scow

It was announced yesterday that three prominent Democrats from West Virginia would not be attending the Democratic Convention in North Carolina. Of course, they made their usual excuses about needing to do work for the people, getting the economy back in order, etc. But I think most people are intelligent enough to realize that they see the President as a liability in their state and don't want him to drag them down as they attempt to get reelected. The three politicians include Governor Earl Tomblin, Senator Joe Manchin, and Representative Nick Rahall.

One could just chart this up to the quirkiness of West Virginia (where Mr. Obama had no shot of winning anyway) if it wasn't the bit of news that Representative Mark Critz of Pennsylvania has also announced that he will be skipping the Convention. Critz's district is in western PA (PA-12), just outside of Pittsburgh. It was Jack Murtha's district before his death in 2010.

There is one common thread uniting these men though: coal. West Virginia's economy is heavily dependent on coal as is western Pennsylvania's. As part of the green energy initiative, funding and support for the coal industry has gone down while EPA regulations on coal use have gone up. Reducing the pollution produced by burning coal is certainly a laudable goal but when the economy is already in the toilet, doing anything that reduces jobs in a hurting industry (especially one that is the backbone of a state) is going to make you unpopular there.

As noted before, West Virginia is already lost so no real harm, no foul there. But Democratic strength in Pennsylvania is anchored by Philadelphia and heavy union turnout in Pittsburgh. If this turnout is depressed in any way, it could make the contest for Pennsylvania much closer than it should be.

As an aside, this is my 666th post. OOGA BOOGA!

Mystery: Part 3

Two more themes for those interested in Mystery! The first is the spiritual father of the show: Lord Peter Wimsey. Lord Wimsey actually was shown on Masterpiece Theater back in the 1970's and it was so popular that it inspired the folks at WGBH in Boston to start up their own show based on mystery literary content.



The second is Reilly: Ace of Spies. I know very little of this one, but the theme is the Romance from the Gadfly Suite by Dmitri Shostkovitch and it is quite beautiful.



If I could find a copy, I'd put Rumpole of the Bailey in here as well, but I haven't found a seperate recording of that theme as of yet.

Cute HP Houses

I find these amusing.



Via TeeTurtle

VERY GOOD!

You can only truly appreciate this if you've watched Dora, although I'm sure others will still find it funny. My only complaint is that it should be longer.

Useless Statistics

Much like baseball, politics has a statistic for everything. I'm sure you could find how left-handed politicians did when facing off against right-handed incumbent Senators in off-year elections.

One such statistic has been making the rounds lately: since 1956, no President has been reelected while getting less of the Electoral College vote than he did when first elected. I did a quick check on this.

Eisenhower: 1952 - 442, 1956 - 457
Nixon: 1968 - 301, 1972 - 521
Reagan: 1980 - 489, 1984 - 525
Clinton: 1992 - 370, 1996 - 379
W. Bush: 2000 - 271, 2004 - 286

Arguably you could include Johnson in this as well. He and Kennedy were elected with 303 votes in 1960 and Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater in 1964 with 486 votes.

However, this doesn't really mean much other than the opposition ran bad candidates against an incumbent or things were going fairly well (sometimes both). FDR passed his 1932 total (472) in his 1936 reelection (523) but fell in both his third term (449) and fourth term (432) elections. Wilson only barely squeeked by Charles Hughes in 1916 (277) by 3,800 votes in California after romping Taft and Roosevelt in 1912 (435).

Barak Obama won in 2008 with 365 Electoral College votes, which means that he can lose 95 votes and still win reelection. I personally think that 365 is impossible to achieve again but 270 is very possible. Statistics like this make for amusing parlor games, but are not viable in reality. After all, President Kerry would like to remind everyone how that if the Washington Redskins lose their last home game before the election, the incumbent party also loses the White House (they lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers).

Two Small Elections

There are eight states that are going to the polls today for various issues. None are of any major significance but two are somewhat interesting.

The first is a special election in Arizona's eighth congressional district. This was Gabrielle Giffords old seat that became vacated when she opted to retire while dealing with her recovery. This area is strongly Democrat and should be a fairly easy victory for the Democratic nominee Ron Barber. The Republican is Jesse Kelly, a military veteran running for his first significant office.

The second is a ballot measure (issue 2) in North Dakota to eliminate the state property tax. The background of this is that North Dakota has been taking in large amounts of money through sales and corporate taxes because there has been a large oil business boom. The state has seen so much revenue coming in that members of the legislature decided to try and eliminate the property tax as an extra boon to their citizens. This measure was defeated in 2009. Independent groups then grabbed the idea and collected enough signatures to get the measure put on the ballot. Limited polling data has shown that the measure would be defeated with many citizens citing fear that if the boom economy collapsed, the state would be left completely bereft of revenue. I shall be curious to see what the final numbers are.

*UPDATE*

As expected, Ron Barber won AZ-8. The vote was a little closer than I expected (52-45), considering that Mr. Barber was Ms. Giffords former aide and had also been shot in the attack.

North Dakota's elimination of property tax (issue 2) also failed by a whopping 76.5 to 23.5.

June Trends

About six weeks ago, I gave my first early handicapping of the race between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. Charting a few things, I thought I would update on how the landscape has changed in that time.

I've added some degree of freedom since that first post. Rather than just have it be Obama, Romney, and Toss Up, I've added "slight" and "lean" to the mix (which is more in line with how things are done at RCP.



I've made three changes to the map since I first added the degrees of freedom at the beginning of May. I originally had both Ohio and Colorado as "slight Obama" and Wisconsin as "lean Obama". There have been several polls in May and early June that have shown a very tight race in Ohio and Colorado so I thought it better to move them into "Toss Up" status. Wisconsin has been a bit harder to track but with as well as Walker did, I thought it best to downgrade Wisconsin by one notch (but still keep it in the Obama column).

I've seen some sites and polls suggesting that things are tightening in Nevada and Michigan as well, but not enough to suggest moving things around.

If you give slights and leaners to each side, Mr. Obama leads Mr. Romney in the electoral college 253-206. Mr. Obama would only need another 17 electoral votes to win and the easiest path to that would be to take either Florida or Ohio. Conversely, Mr. Romney could take Florida, Ohio, and Virginia and he would still be 4 electoral votes short (i.e. needing one of New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado). At the moment, that would seem to present a steeper hill for Mr. Romney.

You can play around with the numbers yourself by giving various states to either side using this site.

RIP Ray Bradbury

The author of the Martian Chronicles, Fahrenheit 451, and numerous short stories died yesterday at the age of 91.

In honor of this great man, I'd like to pass on a little wisdom that my father gave to me on my wedding day:

If you ever go back in time, don't step on anything. Because even the slightest change can alter the future in ways you can't imagine.

Walker Wins Recall

The media got some egg on their face last night. As the exit data began to be released, the media started getting all breathless, reporting that the exits showed a race that was a statistical coin-flip, 50-50, etc. I'm sure they were hoping that they would get several hours of going over the data and keeping viewers in suspense as they vied to be the first one to call it.

However, in a scene highly reminiscent of the 2004 election, the exit polling turned out to be way off. The race was called less than an hour after the polls closed with only about 20% of the vote total in and Mr. Walker leading by 20 points. Dane and Milwaukee Counties (Madison and Milwaukee respectively) narrowed things a bit as they finally came in in larger numbers, but Mr. Walker still walked away with a 7-point victory (53-46) (making Marquette University the winner in the polling predictor contest). Mr. Walker actually exceeded his 2010 vote total by about 125,000 votes (out of about 2.5 million cast) and his margin over Mr. Barrett (who was his opponent in the 2010 contest) grew by an additional 47,000 votes.

Overall it looks like the GOP went 5 for 6 in the recall race. The lone bright spot for the Democrats is that they appear to have won the recall race against 21st district (Racine County) state senator Van Wanggaard. His challenger, John Lehman, is up by about 800 votes (out of 71,500 cast). This will probably go to a recount but that kind of margin seems pretty big to overcome given the sample size. That will give the Democrats a 17-16 edge in the Senate. However, that doesn't mean quite as much as the senate will remain in recess until after the November election, when half of the senate (16 seats) will be up for reelection.

The talking heads (as predicted) were already trying to read the tea leaves and try to figure out how Mr. Walker's win would affect the national race in November. Mr. Obama came out well ahead in the exit polls taken, but since the polls were so far off, those numbers are effectively useless. My own take is that Walker's win will have close to zero impact on the race. Mr. Walker won because he had done an acceptable job to many people and more than a few others, while they may have disagreed with his policies, did not like the idea of removing a man mid-term who had committed no malfeasance. If anything, I think the decent state of the economy in Wisconsin will allow Mr. Obama to retain the state as Mr. Romney's economic argument will seem a lot less dire.

In other races, Mr. Romney won all counties in all five of the primary contests. He won 169 delegates from California, 50 delegates from New Jersey, 20 delegates from New Mexico and 25 delegates from South Dakota. Montana doesn't actually allocate delegates until its convention on June 16. This brings his hard total up to 1397 and his overall total (including unbound pledges) to 1436 or 125% of the required total.



The only other interesting bit of news out of the elections was that two cities in California (San Diego and San Jose) voted to cut pension allocations for city workers as a means of balancing their budgets. I doubt there is any real correlation to what was going on in Wisconsin and this, but with union pensions being the narrative of the day, the news gets a bit more play.

Last Call

Today is the last call for primaries. Yes, Utah will still have its contest on June 26, but with 49 of 50 states done after today, elections are effectively over until November.

Normally this day would have come and gone without too much fanfare. Mr. Romney has enough delegates to be the nominee as does Mr. Obama, so the contests in CA, MT, NJ, NM, and SD don't count for much. I've not even heard of any interesting primaries in the lower races, although I would think that California must have something. But the day's news is being consumed by the recall election in Wisconsin.

There are actually several recalls going on in Wisconsin today. The one against Governor Walker is grabbing all the headlines, but there are also recalls against the Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch and four Republican state senators. Polling has been highly favorable to Walker with the final polls showing him with anything between a 3 and 12 point lead. Polls close at 8 pm CDT (9 pm EDT).

Early reports have turnout being heavy but subdued. The general feeling is that Wisconsinites are suffering from election fatigue, having had congressional recall elections and a nasty state supreme court judicial race in 2011, only to be followed by the general primaries, the recall primary, and the recall election in 2012.

Many talking heads will be parsing the data from today's results, trying to find a way to apply it to the November general election. This is most likely an exercise in futility but that's what they are paid for. About the only substantial thing that has come out of this is that the Romney camp has stated that they will be tapping into the GotV mechanism that Gov. Walker has built in preparation for this recall. The theory being that they will force the Obama campaign to spend more money than planned to retain Wisconsin, bleeding it from other needed states, such as Ohio and Florida.

*UPDATE*

A local station is reporting that turnout may reach 65% of registered voters. Could be a long night of vote counting.

Now It's Official

Three states awarded delegates at conventions this weekend. Washington State gave Mr. Romney 34 delegates, Uncle Ron 5 delegates, and Mr. Santorum 1 delegate. Missouri awarded Mr. Romney 19 delegates and Mr. Santorum 6 delegates. Louisana assigned 23 delegates but those are officially designated as uncommitted by the state convention.

All in all, Mr. Romney added 53 delegates to his total, bringing his hard count up to 1133. When you factor in the unofficial commitments, his total jumps to 1168, meaning that he is now the official nominee. Louisana would probably have put him over the top in the hard count if preference were factored in so it cuts for him either way.

There are four primaries tomorrow and one state convention that will add to Mr. Romney's totals. However, all eyes will be glued to Wisconsin to see if Governor Walker is recalled and if not, what his margin of victory is. There will be much flapping by the talking heads in trying to parlay the results into some sort of trend regarding the Presidential election so that will dominate the news feeds for the next couple of days.

A Hair Short

Pretty much every round up of the news has Mr. Romney now being declared the (unofficial) official nominee. However, he came up just a tiny bit short in the delegate count to make that declaration.

Mr. Romney won 105 delegates last night which puts his hard total at 1080. If you include party leader pledges, that number jumps to 1115. If you throw in projections from caucus states of Iowa and Washington, it jumps to 1139. I'm sure that there are a few other states that have not made their full allocation yet (such as Missouri and Louisiana) that have been included in the projected news totals and that puts Mr. Romney over the top.

But if you are doing that, what's the point? We've known since mid-April that Mr. Romney is going to be the nominee and if you are just tracking delegates so you can make a declarative statement, why not wait until you have hard numbers rather than just relying on projections from conventions? Granted, a number of those conventions meet this weekend, but still.

Looking forward, Washington State has their state convention as does Missouri and Louisiana this weekend. Mr. Romney had been projected to win 16 of Washington's 40 available delegates but I'm sure he'll walk away with more which will put him over the top. If he didn't, you have 25 delegates in Missouri and 23 delegates in Louisiana available and I doubt Uncle Ron's hoards will be able to thwart Mr. Romney in all of them.

On the Senate side, Mr. Dewhurst was unable to crack the 50% threshold (45-34) so he'll have a runoff with Mr. Cruz on July 31. The Democrats will also have a run-off between their two top vote getters: Paul Sadler and Grady Yarbrough.

Although no delegates were awarded, Mr. Obama managed to avoid the embarrassment that had marked the last three southern contests by snagging 88% of the vote against 3 challengers (including the same John Wolfe who took over 40% of the vote in Arkansas).