Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Optical Oil Tricks

So, who sees a white horse galloping towards Florida?

Friday, June 25, 2010

Lightning

Apparently this strike took place in Chicago two days ago. I wouldn't have wanted to be in either tower, but it looks cool:

Second Leak?

Periodically, I sweep the live feeds of the ROVs monitoring the Gulf Oil Spill. This morning I saw something that has me a touch more worried. This is the feed from the Intervention ROV1. At first glance, it looks like it's off-line but then you see something faintly green and moving in the background. If you watch long enough, you see bits of sea detritus or one of the ROV cables move back and forth so you know that the cameras are on. I tried doing a print screen of the shot but instead of a picture of the screen, it kept streaming the live feed.

So what are we seeing? The fact that the light is off and that the depth gauge in the upper right corner is consistently reading 4900 ft tells me that a second leak has sprung from the sea floor. Judging from what I can see of the plume, it looks fairly strong too. Many people have speculated that there have been additional breeches. I think this confirms it.

As an aid, here are the links to some of the other ROVs:

Enterprise 2 - this one has been watching the top of the BOP and the cap. Incidentally, you can see that the BOP is starting to list.
Skandi 1 - Top of the BOP from a different angle
Skandi 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment of this posting.
Intervention 2 - currently offline
Enterprise 1 - currently offline
Q4000 1 - in a holding pattern at the moment
Q4000 2 - in a holding pattern at the moment

For quick check, here's all at once.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Oil Diagram

Here's a visual aid of a standard subsea pipe casing and some of my markings on what has probably happened to the casing:

On a much lighter note, here's some nonsense from an Australian politician about a tanker spill in 2007. Put in John Cleese and you'd swear it was Monty Python:

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Oil Spill Update

Something very cool happened today. I found out last night about the cap that will fit on top of the leaking BOP in the Gulf, which should capture all of the escaping oil until the relief wells are drilled. A couple of the guys I work with are doing some work on it as well and it's cool to see some of the pictures. Once it's in place down in the Gulf, I'll see if I can post a pic of it.

Countering this interesting news, people have been posting theories and other information on what might be happening and what could happen. Worst case scenario is actually really, really bad. What I've been able to glean is that this oil reserve is about 25,000 sq. miles, which makes it the second largest ocean oil reserve in the world (the one off the coast of Brazil is the largest). Also, because of the depth of the reserve, the oil coming out is about 40% methane. Methane is the gas that provides the pressure that drives the oil out of the well.

The failure of the top kill method last month proved that there is a rupture in the pipe below the surface of the sea floor. It may be way deep or may be only 100 ft. below the surface. Because the pressure of the oil is so high and there is so much gas mixed in, gas has likely been escaping through the sub-floor rupture and creating a secondary gas bubble below the surface of the gulf.

Now, the danger is that if the pressure is not relieved in time (by the relief well or if they clamp too much pressure on the BOP), the gas under the surface of the seabed could explode, collapsing the sea floor. This in turn could result in either of two things: Either the BOP crashes down into the hole, collapses and the hole expands providing a greater escape for the oil; or the collapse of the sea bed causes a cascade of sea floor collapse (like floors of a building collapsing each other) and the entire floor collapses into the oil reservoir. If that happens, the pressure release would likely create a tidal wave that could reach supersonic speed. The resulting wave would wipe out nearly everything in Florida (elevation barely tops six feet) and could go north upwards of 20-50 miles.

Huffpo has something similar described.

Even worse, some have questioned whether the resulting collapse and earthquake that would follow might not set off the Yellowstone Caldera volcano. If that happened, the entire Western United States would simply disappear in the eruption. But that's an extreme event.

Hopefully, the relief wells work and all of this is just tin-foil hat stuff. I'll try and keep everyone advised.

*UPDATE*

Look at the lower right hand corner in this video. Doesn't that look like some sort of gremlin from the Twilight Zone?


Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Low Points

One of the lowest points of the Jimmy Carter presidency was the so-called Malaise speech. Dark and lecturing, it was exactly what the public didn't want to hear, although it did offer solutions and substance.

Mr. Obama's speech last night apparently made some people wish for even that level of effort.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Irony - Ohio Edition

Last night the large statue of Jesus outside the Solid Rock Church on I-75 (known by many as Touchdown Jesus) burned down after being struck by lighting. That is what's known as irony.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Hosed

If you think things are bad with the oil spill now, wait until you read about what could happen if that relief well isn't drilled in time. Dire consequences indeed.

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Unused Oil Boom

Government competency at its finest.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Rowing Along

With everything going on, this crosses my mind every now and again:

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing
Is it raining? Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a-blowing?

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing!!!

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Watch Your Step

Now that's a sinkhole:

Israel Completly Justified

There has been a lot of buzz over the incident late Sunday night/Monday morning of the storming of the Gaza blockade runners. Probably the best details I've seen of the incident can be found here. Yes I know it's an Israeli blog but it has the most detail I've been able to find of the incident.

Frankly even without the details written there, I am in full support of the Israelis. Turkey and the other sponsors of this flotilla made no secret of their plans to run a blockade that has been declared against an entity (Hamas) that is at war with Israel. Every aspect of international law has been followed giving Israel complete justification for their actions; never mind their soldiers defending themselves with lethal force upon being attacked.

Honestly, the Israelis have shown great restraint in this situation. I would have been sorely tempted to let the ships get within 1 mile of the blockade line, give them reasonable warning through loudspeakers, then put a torpedo into the hull of the lead vessel as they crossed the 12-mile line. That would probably have been seen as excessive (although the UN still hasn't condemned North Korea for doing almost exactly the same thing - and there was no blockade running in that situation).

Some would like to believe that cooler heads will prevail. I don't think so. It could be a small affair, or it could spiral into an Isaiah 17 situation. We shall see.