Well, another weekend of football has come and gone. Turkey day was good and I even managed to avoid killing anyone with my cooking.
The BCS bowl games became much clearer with several key losses. First, USC defeating Notre Dame vaulted them firmly over Michigan and unless USC goes down to UCLA, they will play Ohio St. in the National Championship. This of course must annoy the Rose Bowl because it means that the Rose Bowl would have been the de facto national championship in the pre-BCS era.
In the other 4 conferences, the championships are set. The Big 12 is Nebraska vs. Oklahoma with the winner going to the Fiesta Bowl where they will play Boise St. Florida plays Arkansas for the SEC championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. If Arkansas wins, there will be no debate, but if Florida wins, Urban Meyer will be grousing for quite a while about his team not getting a shot at the National Title game. So the BCS folks are quietly hoping that Arkansas kicks Florida’s butt.
The Orange Bowl will feature the ACC Champ (Wake Forrest or Georgia Tech) vs. the Big East Champ. The Big East champion will be determined by the West Virginia –Rutgers game. Most people are pretty confident that Louisville will beat UConn, leaving Louisville at 11-1. If Rutgers wins, they have the tiebreaker against Louisville and will win the Big East. If West Virginia wins, Louisville will be the only one loss team in the conference and will win. However, if West Virginia wins and Louisville somehow loses to UConn, there will be a three-way tie and the overall BCS standings will determine who goes to the Orange Bowl.
That just leaves the two at-large spots in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl, since Michigan will take Ohio St.’s spot in the Rose. Next highest in the BCS standings without a championship spot is LSU at #5, which is an automatic berth in a BCS game if there is room. Given that no one wants to see a rematch of SEC teams in the Sugar Bowl, LSU will go play Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
That just leaves the Sugar Bowl and who will play Florida or Arkansas. On the surface, it would seem that Wisconsin should get the nod, as they are the next best team that’s not a champion, but apparently there is a rule in the BCS that no conference can send more than 2 teams to BCS games. Thus, Wisconsin can’t get to the BCS even though they may end up finishing the season in the #6 spot of the BCS. Running down the rankings, there are two possibilities. If Rutgers wins the Big East, Louisville would go (assuming they beat UConn) as they are currently ranked #6 and the top six teams automatically go. But, if Louisville wins the Big East, the next team would be Notre Dame, who are currently #10 in the BCS standings and would trump any SEC team ahead of them as there are already two SEC teams in the BCS.
Thus, my current BCS Bowl projections currently shake out as:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Boise St.
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Notre Dame
On the NFL front, the AFC leaders tightened their grip while the wild card spots got a little looser. Indianapolis, Baltimore, San Diego, and New England currently hold the 1-4 seeds respectively and only some jostling between Indy, San Diego and Baltimore seem likely in shifting the seeds. The wild cards are Denver, and Kansas City, but they are both sitting with 7-4 records and Denver will be trotting out Jay Cutler starting next week at QB. Thus the door is now open for the three teams tied in the #7 hole: NY Jets, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. I firmly believe that one of those AFC West teams will go down (I had firmly believed that it would be KC until Thursday), so one of teams currently on the outside will make it. The easy choice would be Jacksonville, but after they lost to Buffalo, they need some soul searching to find themselves. Cincinnati still has a very hard schedule to overcome and the Jets are still not that convincing. I’m going to need another week to see who is capable of seizing that last spot.
On the NFC side, even with their loss, Chicago is still in a strong position. Dallas has seized control of the NFC East and if they beat the Giants this upcoming week, they will be in good position to grab the #2 seed. New Orleans has a one game lead in the south and if Carolina continues to play Jekyll and Hyde, New Orleans should be able to hold itself up and make it in as the #3 seed. Seattle is currently sitting as the #4 seed and will be getting back most of its starters. The NY Giants and Carolina are the #5 and 6 seeds but things are so mediocre in this area that only Arizona, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are truly out of the playoff picture.
Monday, November 27, 2006
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Correcting the Football Projections
An amendment is required for my Bowl Projections. In the Rose Bowl I had placed Cal as an “at large” and then put West Virginia in the Orange Bowl as the Big East Champion. However that did not reflect the current reality of the college football world. Had Rutgers remained unbeaten until it faced West Virginia and then lost to West Virginia, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the Big East between West Virginia, Rutgers and Louisville. In that situation, the tiebreaker would have been the BCS standings of each team, of which West Virginia would have been highest.
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
However, Rutgers lost to Cincinnati this past weekend. This means that if West Virginia beats Rutgers (and Louisville and West Virginia finish with only one loss), the tiebreaker is the head to head match-up, which Louisville won. So, Louisville would win the Big East and the automatic berth in the Orange Bowl. This also means that there is a legitimate possibility that West Virginia will be sitting at either #5 or #6 in the BCS and get an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game. With Boise St. and Notre Dame also qualifying for consideration, the Rose Bowl would be forced into selecting one of these three teams and would probably opt for West Virginia as it no longer can get a Big 10-Pac 10 match up that it wants. So, the current bowl projections under this revised system are:
National Title Game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech
These of course are subject to change. Texas will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship and Florida will play Arkansas in the SEC championship. Georgia Tech has locked up the ACC Coastal, but will be playing either Boston College or Wake Forrest in the ACC title game. Maryland might have a shot in there as well, but I think BC will beat Miami this weekend and that would knock Maryland out of contention. Boise St., in theory, could also lose its last game and get knocked out of its automatic berth by finishing at #12 or better in the BCS. But I doubt that will happen.
So, realistically, the only thing that is an absolute lock is that Ohio St. will be playing in the National Championship Bowl and that Notre Dame will get a BCS at-large bid, but it won’t be to the national title game or a match-up against Michigan. Current odds favor the above bids though as USC’s BCS rank will vault over Michigan if USC beats Notre Dame. Florida’s only shot at the title game is USC beating Notre Dame and then losing to UCLA, plus Arkansas beating LSU and then Florida destroying Arkansas in the SEC title game. A two-loss Notre Dame will drop Michigan’s strength of schedule and if Florida beats down a strong scheduled Arkansas team, it might push them just over the hump of Michigan. But I think the odds of USC losing to UCLA are rather small. A Notre Dame win over USC will probably cement an Ohio St.-Michigan rematch, unless the BCS voters consciously vote Florida over Michigan to specifically keep Michigan out of the title game, something I'm not sure they are ready to do.
On the NFL side of things, the picture is becoming clearer. The AFC top 5 are pretty much set at Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Baltimore, and Denver. This leaves Jacksonville, Kansas City, the NY Jets, and Cincinnati fighting it out for the #6 seed. Jacksonville currently has the inside track.
In the NFC, injuries may give Dallas the East, but the Giants are not out just yet. Chicago is currently running away with the #1 seed as it has a three game lead over all other division leaders. The South is starting to swing Carolina’s way, but New Orleans may have enough fight left to secure a wild card spot now that Atlanta is returning to mediocrity. Seattle better get healthy quickly or they will be overtaken by San Francisco for the West crown.
If the season ended today, the NFL match-ups would be as follows:
AFC:
#1 Indianapolis – bye
#2 Baltimore – bye
#6 Jacksonville at #3 San Diego
#5 Denver at #4 New England
NFC:
#1 Chicago – bye
#2 NY Giants – bye
#6 Dallas at #3 Seattle
#5 New Orleans at #4 Carolina
Monday, November 20, 2006
Rematch?
Well, the rankings are out and Michigan is still #2 in the BCS. Some people are probably already hitting the panic button regarding a rematch, however, it should be pointed out that the other three teams in contention to play Ohio St. for the title still have three games left. One of those teams will be automatically eliminated from contention when Florida plays Arkansas in the SEC title game. USC still has a strong claim to the title match so long as they beat Notre Dame and UCLA. The Ohio St.-Michigan game being close destroyed any change Notre Dame had of getting into the title game and Rutgers loss to Cincinnati caused a huge sigh of relief for the folks at the BCS accounting department.
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
So who will go? I’m not sure. The consensus among the talking heads is that if USC wins out, they should go over Michigan. However, if USC falls to Notre Dame or UCLA, I’m not sure the voters will necessarily try to vault Florida into the top spot. I think Arkansas is in a hard position due to the fact that USC blew them out at home early in the season. Perhaps if they really thump LSU, they can get some talk about them, but most of the focus seems to be between Michigan, USC, and Florida. Personally, I think USC will win out and be rewarded by the voters to go play Ohio St. Immediately after the game there was talk about how good it was and that a rematch would be interesting, but I believe there is enough disquiet among the BCS voters about giving Michigan a second chance that they will look closely and try to get someone in the title game ahead of Michigan.
The 5 BCS bowls are looking like the following:
National Title game: Ohio St. vs. USC
Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Cal
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame
Orange: West Virginia vs. Georgia Tech
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Election Fallout
Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn’t really change much. There will be a lot more gridlock and Bush will be using his veto a lot more in his final two years. About the only major thing is that since the Democrats have gained control of the Senate, Bush will not be able to push through any significantly conservative judges. In fact, if either Ginsburg or Stevens decides to retire in the next two years, the Democrats will all but force Bush to nominate a liberal justice to replace them. That won’t really change anything on the court, although I’m sure Bush would have liked to get a 6-3 conservative majority rather than keep the 5-4 he has now.
Gridlock is not necessarily a bad thing when you realize that the mentality of most elected officials is “Don’t just stand there, spend something!” A few things will get through, but talk about increasing the minimum wage and some of the other liberal perks will get shot down by Bush and even now the Democrats won’t have enough votes to override his veto. Probably the real winner in this is John McCain. If the Democrats don’t do anything stupid, there is no reason to believe that they won’t keep their majority in Congress (or at least the House). Thus, you will need a President who can work with that and is seen as a bit more moderate. I’m not sure the people will be ready to trust a Democratic Congress with a Democratic president just yet, but a moderate Republican president with a history of working across the aisle will be a bit more palatable to the people. Enter John McCain.
There is one major downside to this change though. The Democrats have made it no secret that they intend to use their control of the purse strings to force the Pentagon to start scaling back in Iraq and a few other places. That will limit our mobility for a while and I think that Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians are going to try and take advantage of the situation. The Palestinians are seriously hurting for cash and they are starting to feel the pressure of the Israeli incursions into Gaza. Rather than be rational and stop fighting and recognize Israel, the Palestinians will probably coordinate with the leader of Hamas in Damascus, who will arrange a three way assault against Israel between Hezbollah, the Palestinians, and Syria. Iran will probably find a way to send money and materials over to the Arabs to keep the war going. While the world stands by and talks about it as they did during the Lebanon crisis, the Arabs might catch the Israelis by surprise enough and with overwhelming numbers to overrun a portion of their military. If that happens, the Israelis will have very little choice to turn to desperate measures to keep themselves afloat.
One other little note, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak officially announced he is running for President today. Joe Biden is also believed to be running although he has not announced it yet. John Kerry and John Edwards never stopped running, although they too have not formally announced their candidacies yet. Hillary Clinton also has not said much and she has also given very mixed signals as to whether she will try to run. I must admit, I think the primary fight would be a lot more entertaining if she did not run. It gets boring when one candidate crushes everyone. But Vilsak running officially means that everyone else is running for second place when the Iowa straw poll comes about in January 2008.
Gridlock is not necessarily a bad thing when you realize that the mentality of most elected officials is “Don’t just stand there, spend something!” A few things will get through, but talk about increasing the minimum wage and some of the other liberal perks will get shot down by Bush and even now the Democrats won’t have enough votes to override his veto. Probably the real winner in this is John McCain. If the Democrats don’t do anything stupid, there is no reason to believe that they won’t keep their majority in Congress (or at least the House). Thus, you will need a President who can work with that and is seen as a bit more moderate. I’m not sure the people will be ready to trust a Democratic Congress with a Democratic president just yet, but a moderate Republican president with a history of working across the aisle will be a bit more palatable to the people. Enter John McCain.
There is one major downside to this change though. The Democrats have made it no secret that they intend to use their control of the purse strings to force the Pentagon to start scaling back in Iraq and a few other places. That will limit our mobility for a while and I think that Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians are going to try and take advantage of the situation. The Palestinians are seriously hurting for cash and they are starting to feel the pressure of the Israeli incursions into Gaza. Rather than be rational and stop fighting and recognize Israel, the Palestinians will probably coordinate with the leader of Hamas in Damascus, who will arrange a three way assault against Israel between Hezbollah, the Palestinians, and Syria. Iran will probably find a way to send money and materials over to the Arabs to keep the war going. While the world stands by and talks about it as they did during the Lebanon crisis, the Arabs might catch the Israelis by surprise enough and with overwhelming numbers to overrun a portion of their military. If that happens, the Israelis will have very little choice to turn to desperate measures to keep themselves afloat.
One other little note, former Iowa governor Tom Vilsak officially announced he is running for President today. Joe Biden is also believed to be running although he has not announced it yet. John Kerry and John Edwards never stopped running, although they too have not formally announced their candidacies yet. Hillary Clinton also has not said much and she has also given very mixed signals as to whether she will try to run. I must admit, I think the primary fight would be a lot more entertaining if she did not run. It gets boring when one candidate crushes everyone. But Vilsak running officially means that everyone else is running for second place when the Iowa straw poll comes about in January 2008.
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