Election Math

Realclearpolitics has an election map that they update with what candidate is doing with each state, much like you have with all the networks. The current map shows Mr. Bush with 232 votes and Mr. Kerry with 207. This assumes Mr. Bush wins New Mexico and Nevada, but he is trending ahead there. Mr. Kerry's number is also a bit off as he is almost certain to win New Hampshire and probably Pennsylvania. So, realistically, it should be 232-232. (This also assumes Mr. Kerry holds Hawaii)

So as our realistic battlegrounds go, its Ohio (20), Florida (27), Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10). Much ballyhoo has been made about Ohio in the past couple of months, especially as no Republican has ever won without it. But, with the shift of some more conservative voters to the southwest, there are several scenarios where Mr. Bush wins without it. The linchpin in all this is really Florida. Florida has the biggest prize between the two men and it could swing either way. But Mr. Kerry has said a couple of things recently that could have irked the large Cuban population in the south, especially with reminding them about the failed Pay of Pigs invasion. We also don't know if the more conservative panhandle voters will turn out in larger numbers than 4 years ago because they were told prior to their polls closing that Mr. Gore had won the state.

Once a candidate has Florida, they only need 11 votes to secure a win. Ohio would do it in one fell swoop, but so would a combination of the other two. One of my most amusing scenarios would be Bush winning Florida, Iowa, and stealing Hawaii away to end up with 270 exactly. This would actually create an even more interesting scenario because one of the West Virginia Republican electors has gone on record as saying that he will not cast his vote for Bush. Whether that means he casts it for Mr. Kerry or casts it away for someone like Mr. McCain is unknown. But if he did, then Mr. Bush would have technically won, but the vote will be tied and have to be settled by the House of Representatives. Barring an act of God, that will remain in Republican hands this election. The Senate would then go on to choose the VP and if the Democrats picked up 2 seats, they would vote for Mr. Edwards as VP. How funny would that be. Guarantee he wouldn't be allowed to do anything with regards to policy.

So those are the numbers. The Midwest is very important but again, it is Florida that will put a candidate in position to win the whole shooting match.

incidentally, regarding the Senate, that's almost as interesting a chess game as President is. The GOP will win the seat in Georgia from the Democrats and the Democrats will win the seat in Illinois from the GOP, offsetting each other. Democrats are looking close to taking the seats in Alaska and Colorado. Republicans are looking like they will pick up seats in North and South Carolina. The real nasty blow would come if the Republicans succeed in taking the seats of Florida and South Dakota and holding Oklahoma. Polls show this being the case, but they are within the margin of error so no one can officially call it yet. The loss of Mr. Daschle would be an especially harsh blow I think, although maybe the Democrats would rally behind a stronger leader then. I've felt that Mr. Daschle was not as decisive and combative as he could be. A better war horse could help the Democrats gain back the Senate in the next election.

It could get even uglier for the Democrats if they also lose Louisiana, but that's in a special 3-way race with 1 Republican and 2 Democrats. I imagine the Louisiana rules are that if no candidate gets over 50%, there's a run-off between the top two. Currently the Republican is polling at 51% but no margin of error was given in the poll. If this scenario holds, it would give the GOP a 54-45 majority, with Mr. Jeffords of Vermont siding with the Democrats. I guess that would hurt Mr. Edwards' shot of being VP in a tie.

But the election will be over soon. While I'll be thankful that the news and commercials will have ended, I will miss the chess match. I guess I'll just have to look forward to 2008. Dream scenario: Clinton-Bayh (D) vs. McCain-Giuliani (R)

Do You Feel A Draft?

I can imagine that many political cartoons are going to be going on that theme over the next couple of days. I'll probably head over to Cagle to see if anyone scored a Yatzee with the Hell freezing over theme.

So we tip our hats to Boston, winners after all this time and eradicators of the curse. Nike even jumped on the bandwagon with an ad showing two young boys sitting in the stands with a counter at the bottom at 1918. Then it started scrolling and you saw the boys progress during the different eras. Finally it stopped at 2004 with them as very old men, sitting with their (great) grandkids. It was an interesting little commercial.

Now the Red Sox can go back to tormenting the Yankees properly with cries of "2000." Not as good as "1918," but with Steinbrenner breathing down the Yankee's necks, it might get some play with the players and cause some amusing stories in the New York papers.

The only real bad thing about the Red Sox breaking the curse is that we now loose the mystique of matching the Cubs and the Red Sox in the world series. It would be a rematch of the 1918 world series, but it lacks the punch when its only one club that's suffering.

The true curse breaker match would be the Cubs vs. the White Sox. The Cubs haven't won the series since 1908 but the White Sox haven't won since 1917. Heck, the Cubs haven't been to a series since 1945 and the White Sox since 1959. I can imagine Chicago would get a lot of mileage out of that series. We already have the Billy Goat curse on the Cubs. We should have the Black Sox curse on the south side boys.

But since we have shown that curses can be broken, its only a matter of time. I'm personally putting money down on the Cubs in 2008. Nothing quite like the 100 year anniversary to bring a good curse to a close.

New Babylon?

Over the past couple of weeks I've been reading an in depth Bible commentary on the book of Revelation by Tim Lahaye (co-author of the Left Behind series). I'm almost finished with it and its been quite enlightening. One of the most interesting interpretations is the reconstruction of the city of Babylon.

For those of you not readily familiar with the book, Revelation discusses the universal church as "the whore of Babylon" in Ch. 17. However, it goes on in Ch. 18 and implys that there will be a separate Babylon which is the commercial center and seat of the Antichrist's power. Apparently, many scholars have come along and suggested places that this Babylon will be (New York is currently very popular as a choice). But Mr. Lehaye is of the opinion that it will be the actual city of Babylon, reconstructed. He bases this interpretation on prophesies in Isaiah 13-14 and Jeremiah 50-51 as well as very literal read of Rev. Ch. 18. I myself have no opinion on this interpretation at the moment but I'm not going to put it out of the realm of possibility.

What struck me most however was the plausibility of the rebuilding of Babylon given recent events. The ruins of Babylon are located about 50 miles to the south of Baghdad, right outside the Iraqi city of Hillah, itself becoming a fairsized metropolis. Over the past few years, archaeologists have been travelling to the site and have reported that Saddam Hussein was making efforts to rebuild the city of Babylon. Saddam was well known to be obsessed with the idea of casting himself as the successor to Nebuchadnezzar and rebuilding the old capital would have done a great deal towards creating that impression. Now that he's out of power, the city will probably be given fully over to local archaeologists to comb over. However, fears of robbing the state of its national identity (exacerbated by the great Iraqi nationalism that's springing up) will probably restrict excavation and fuel efforts to rebuild the site as a means of uniting the Iraqi's around their ancient heritage. This is just speculation, but with current times as they are, I think it could prove an interesting distraction to the people. Especially when it gets sold as a way of picking up the economy and creating the capitalistic hub of the Middle East. Now, I imagine this is still a number of years off as we are going to be in the country for quite a while, irregardless of who wins the election. Still, it creates tantalizing possibilities in the mind.

Fallen! Fallen is Babylon the Great!

Ding dong the witch is dead.
Which old witch?
The wicked witch.
Ding dong the wicked witch is dead.

At least for this season. Yes, I am among those annoying Red Sox fans who moan and bewail the fate of their team and then get obnoxious when they do well. Fittingly, as Mrs. X can tell you, I actually refused to watch game 4 of the series because I just couldn't stomach watching the Yankees sweep. I hung to game 7 last year and was very disgusted so I wasn't giving the Red Sox my trust in this matter again. I stayed up until the 12th inning of game 5 and then had to go to bed, desperately worried that the Red Sox had given up the ghost after two botched attempts to get the winning run into scoring position in the latter innings. But I was rewarded when I woke up the next morning. So I thought I'd go ahead and try game 6 and 7. Mrs. X and I were actually watching something else when game 6 started and I came over to the game just after the 3 run homer that the umpires huddled on. I watched the rest and was sure the Yankees were going to take it in the 8th inning. I actually missed the A-Rod play as I had to use the facilities but I thought that was the real turning point. To have fortune reversed like that broke the spirit of the Yankees. What little was left was mercilessly crushed by Foulke in the 9th. Again I missed a portion of game 7 (Mrs. X and I went to pick up our wedding proofs - more on that later) but came back in time to see the aftermath of Johnny Damon's grand slam. The only time I got worried was in the 7th when Pedro was brought in for some bizarre reason. I was yelling at the TV to get him off the mound and put Timlin in. I, like most Red Sox fans I imagine, was having flashbacks to last year. But he got it thanks to some nice fielding and the rest is history.

Now that the Yankees are eliminated, I really won't be unhappy with whomever wins the world series. As I wrote in an earlier post, I would like a St. Louis-Red Sox series (rematch of 1967) but I have enough respect for Houston's accomplishments (especially Bagwell and Biggio) to see them in the World Series. Mrs. X and I have a full slate of shows that we like to watch on Thursdays but we'll check back to the game now and again and I'll probably leave it there once Apprentice is over. Soon we will have both and can let the prognosticating begin.

As to the other thing, Mrs. X and I picked up our wedding proofs last night, all 150 of them. Some are very good and some are not so good. There is one of the bridesmaid who caught the bouquet with her leg up in the air and a shot of more leg than even she wanted to show I imagine. Its very amusing. There's also one of my sister leading a conga line that I don't remember at all during the reception. We'll be taking these over to Mrs. X's mom this weekend to let her start picking out the one's she wants. As for my parents, we'll be taking them along with us over Thanksgiving so all interested parties can see them then. So we can start working on albums before too long.

Changing History

Yesterday I hit the threshold as far as political discussion. I need a break so I'm not going to discuss politics for once in this blog. *gasp*

So instead, I thought I would treat all two of you who read this blog to one of my new hobbies: Biblical Chronology. For those of you unaware of this subject, its the establishment of a historical timeline in conjunction with events as specified in the Bible. A popular example is the establishment of when exactly the Israelites left Egypt, who was pharaoh at the time, and what other kingdoms were around at the time. Most chronologists will tell you that the current theories that the Israelites left during the reign of Ramses II or Thutmoses III just don't make sense on a practical level. They would also tell you that the timeline of the kings in current textbooks built by Edwin R. Thiele is not correct.

Theories vary wildly according to people's persuasion and personal beliefs. I myself have been studying the theories of James B. Jordan recently. They're quite interesting but you have to sift through things that don't quite jive with your own beliefs. For example, Mr. Jordan is a preterist (a person who believes that all biblical prophesy has already been fulfilled) and I am not. So I am careful when he refers to things as though they have already occurred when I believe that they are still to come (see Revelation, Ezekiel 38-39, and the later portions of Daniel). Still, most of his work is sound.

Currently I'm working on the possible modification of the Greek timeline. This stems from a passage in Daniel about the 70 weeks (Dan. 9:20-27). In this, God sets a timetable from the decree to rebuild Jerusalem to the coming/crucifixion of Jesus of 483 years. This coupled with a comparison of genealogy lists in Ezra and Nehemiah, lends me to believe that the edict referred to in Daniel was the original edict written by Cyrus the Great of Persia, bringing to an end the 70 years of exile spoken by Jeremiah. However, this creates a problem with the current, established timeline. This theory now only allows the existence of the Persian empire to be about 120 years. At first, not a problem considering that most of the records of Persia have been lost. Except that if the Persian empire existed for a shorter amount of time that currently believed, that means that events recorded in Greek history are also inaccurate. Most notably, the Pelopponesian War. Did Greece devolve into civil war after the expulsion of Xerxes' invasion which paved the way for Phillip of Macedon or is there some other explanation? So I'll be reading Thucydides' history of the War to see if I can gain any insight.

Its interesting and only for people who really like history and research. We'll see what kind of progress I make on this section. If I get frustrated, I'll move over to resolving the Sargon/Sennacherib issue. I'll give more detail on that later.

Its Good to be in DC; Hooray! Hooray!

For those of you who don't get a chance to see the Today Show or the Tonight Show, Jibjab is at it again. This time they have a cartoon using the tune of Dixie to insult the candidates while encouraging people to go vote. In a portion that should be very amusing to Mrs. X, the Supreme Court gets a line where they threaten to decide the election again. The governor of New Jersey also gets really ribbed with his disclosure of being gay (although if it allowed for the John Ashcroft gay joke, its worth it). All in all, its very funny. Not quite as good as This Land, but still very funny.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, things are getting even tighter. Its gotten so bad that there have been accusations that the Democrats have encouraged the militant wing of the unions (ie. the Mob) to persuade people not to vote. This may be a bit out of line, but there have been a number of break-ins and assaults on Bush-Cheney headquarters. During one of the debates, an office was shot at while people were inside watching the event. No one was hurt, but it does tell you that things are getting a wee bit serious.

Mr. Kerry has done well to present himself well in the debates, but he has made a couple of serious missteps in terms of soundbites that we can expect Mr. Bush to hammer into the ground. He's gotten some good mileage out of "global test" and now he's working on "terrorism down to a nuisance." Mrs. X and I both understand this statement and we think that its probably a reasonably accurate one along with Bush's "we probably can't win the War on Terror" but its not what people want to hear. So its back to acting like 3 year olds.

Also, for you sports people, its Boston Red Sox vs. NY Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros. My personal hope is that we'll get Boston vs. St. Louis, but if we repeat last year's results of what I wanted, we'll get Yankees vs. Astros. If we do, maybe we can at least have Roger Clemens and Andy Pettite give the Yankees one last F*** You. Should be fun.

YANKEES SUCK!!

One Little Bounce...

But for a little bounce, the Minnesota Twins would be leading the Yankees 2-0. But instead the Yankees rallied in the 12th inning and head to Minneapolis tied at 1 game apiece. In the 8th inning, with runners on first and third, the batter slapped a double down the left field line. It took a hop and jumped over the fence to be ruled a ground rule double. It had been a 3-2 count and the runner had taken off with the pitch. Had the ball not bounced into the stands, the runner on first would have scored and the Twins would have gone into the bottom of the 8th up 6-5. But the runner had to hold at third and neither of the next two batters could drive him home. Such is life. But we have hope that the Twins will find their mojo in the dome and send the Yankees home.

Boston is up 2-0 on Anaheim, but we can't put them in the next round yet. Oakland was up 2-0 last year and Boston came back to win 3 straight. Still, things are looking good for Boston right now. St. Louis and Houston are also up in their respective series but they only have one game under their belts right now. Still, things are looking up for a Houston-St. Louis NL pennant series. Its very difficult to say as to who would win such a series. Houston is the hottest team and many people feel that St. Louis is the best team. Should be good.

I've also been catching back up with politics, although very little is grabbing my attention right now. The debates are generally too annoying to watch and as I've already made up my mind, its more fun to see how "neutral" parties try to spin things. I've also discovered this fun little website called Realclearpolitics. Its a collection of various news reports and links to articles. It also has this thing where they grab all the available polls and average them out to try and look at general trends. Its rather informative and you can be as selective as you want in terms of getting your particular flavor of politics, whether its Republican, Democrat, or miscellaneous (Hindu, there are 700 million of us you know).

Tomorrow's debate should be just as pointless except for showing facial expressions and stiffness again. Hopefully the town hall meeting style won't leave both men looking like complete idiots.

Back in the Ring

Well, after much anticipation, the wedding and honeymoon are over. I have a band of gold on my left hand and I can call Mrs. X that without contradiction now. We had a nice wedding and they only problem we had was the inexperience of the DJ during the reception. Although we did almost have a couple of falls during the ceremony. Still, it all went together well. Afterwards we lit out on the honeymoon. We traveled to Williamsburg, VA and then to the outer banks of North Carolina. Surprisingly enough, we didn't have any bad weather. We did run into the remanents of Jeanne during our drive back home across NC on Tuesday but aside from that, we never saw rain. Heck, the first three days in Williamsburg we didn't even see clouds. It was just that nice. Various friends and relatives are putting together pictures of the wedding and honeymoon. When I'm made aware of them, I'll see if I can't get a link up to a couple.

For those of you who read this and helped out or sent gifts/cards we are very appreciative and Mrs. X has been working diligently on the thank yous. I only offer moral support and the purchasing of stamps because its universally recognized that I have terrible handwriting.

So I don't bore all of you with talk of the wedding and honeymoon, I call your attention to the successful second flight of Spaceship One and its capture of the X prize. Fully viable and affordable space travel are still quite a ways away, but this does make for a very interesting step forward in terms of our quest to colonize other planets. 2001 may not have been much like the movie, but maybe we can make 2010 a little closer to way it was portrayed, though I doubt we'll find a monolith orbiting Jupiter.