Dumbledore's Incompetence

I know it’s not exactly Christmas-y but this is what I had on my mind.

Mrs. X, while waiting for any of her three books on the library wait list, has been rereading some of the Harry Potter books. That brought back memories of the post I wrote regarding the trap that Dumbledore set for Voldemort in the first book and also got me thinking about something that doesn’t really make sense with regard to the second book.

One could forgive Dumbledore for not knowing much about the Chamber of Secrets before Tom Riddle opened it, but after Myrtle was killed, Dumbledore should have made it one of his top priorities to deal with the Chamber. He obviously did some of that in keeping a close eye on Riddle for the remainder of his term at Hogwarts, preventing Riddle from summoning the basilisk. Perhaps Professor Dippet restricted Dumbledore from searching out of fear that the monster could not be killed. However, this restriction would have been removed when Dumbledore became headmaster.

The thing that doesn’t make sense to me is how Dumbledore could have been so unprepared for the re-opening of the Chamber of Secrets. Although he didn’t have Riddle’s memory that had been placed in the diary, Dumbledore clearly had enough information to determine both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the Chamber of Secrets.

It is suggested in the book that there had been one or two other attacks before Myrtle was killed. If any of these attacks looked like the attacks that took place 50 years later, one would have noticed water around and spiders fleeing mad dash from the scene. What’s more, it is also likely that Riddle would have made sure that any roosters on campus would have been killed, just as before.

If that wasn’t enough for Dumbledore to figure it out (and it was for Hermione), he had the advantage of two witnesses. Myrtle left Hogwarts to continue her haunting of Olive Hornby until she was restricted by the Ministry. One might assume that she was checked out before being permitted to take residence back up at Hogwarts and that Dumbledore might have even remembered that she was the girl who had been killed by the monster. Myrtle was more than happy to describe the way she died to Harry and one could imagine that if the Headmaster came in and asked her for her story, she would have told him eagerly. Dumbledore could also have asked Hagrid what Aragog remembered of the incident since he would have been sensitive to it. All three of these factors would have given Dumbledore the information he needed on both the nature of the monster and the likely location of the entrance, since Myrtle’s story mentioned Tom summoning the snake.

Even if Dumbledore could not open the Chamber of Secrets and destroy the monster due to his lack of knowledge of Parsletongue (and this didn’t stop Ron from managing to open the Chamber in Deathly Hallows), Dumbledore could still have taken care of things in a very quick and simple manner. Upon the discovery of Mrs. Norris, Dumbledore correctly surmised that the Chamber of Secrets had been reopened. Now, if he had done what a responsible headmaster should have done, he could have set up a simple detector within the bathroom. If that detector was tripped by either use of a certain type of magic or the use of Parsletongue, an alarm could have been sounded throughout the castle. What’s more, that alarm could have been done in the form of a rooster crowing. This would have killed the basilisk before it even had time to fully emerge from the Chamber.

Granted this likely would have allowed Ginny to escape and remain possessed by Voldemort, but Dumbledore had no way of knowing that was how the Chamber was being opened and it would have immediately dealt with the danger being posed to the student population. Of course, Dumbledore could have added to his alarm system to ensure that the perpetrator was caught. Upon triggering the alarm, the door could have been sealed to allow no access except for that of the headmaster. As apparition is impossible within Hogwarts, the culprit would have to either stay within the bathroom or run into the chamber where they would presumably be cornered. Dumbledore could also have told Myrtle of this plan and asked her to come and look around the bathroom when the alarm had been triggered and see if she could describe the culprit in case they did manage to find a way to escape the trap.

This would have made for a rather boring story, but it would have been much more in line with what a truly competent strategist and wise headmaster would have done. The basilisk would have been killed by the alarm and Ginny caught when she tried to release it while Harry was in the hospital wing in the attack that petrified Colin Creevey. After a short examination, I’m sure Ginny would have recovered and given the diary to Dumbledore, who would have examined it. Likely, Dumbledore would not have destroyed it until he was sure what it was but it would have at least posed no further danger to anyone. Harry then could have finished his second year like every other student in peace.

As an aside, I’m sure Voldemort’s curse would have found someway for Lockhart to be removed by the end of the term. Perhaps a revolt among the staff if he were not sacked?

Why Things Are They Way They Are

An important lesson in how history influences everything:

The US standard railroad gauge (distance between the rails) is 4 feet, 8.5 inches. That's an exceedingly odd number. Why was that gauge used?

Because that's the way they built them in England, and English expatriates built the US railroads. Why did the English build them like that?

Because the first rail lines were built by the same people who built the pre-railroad tramways, and that's the gauge they used. Why did these people use that gauge then?

Because the people who built the tramways used the same jigs and tools that they used for building wagons, which used that wheel spacing. Why did the wagons have that particular odd wheel spacing?

Well, if they tried to use any other spacing, the wagon wheels would break on some of the old, long distance roads in England, because that's the spacing of the wheel ruts. So who built those old rutted roads?

Imperial Rome built the first long distance roads in Europe (and England ) for their legions. The roads have been used ever since. And the ruts in the roads? Roman war chariots formed the initial ruts, which everyone else had to match for fear of destroying their wagon wheels. Since the chariots were made for Imperial Rome, they were all alike in the matter of wheel spacing.

Therefore the United States standard railroad gauge of 4 feet, 8.5 inches is derived from the original specifications for an Imperial Roman war chariot. Bureaucracies live forever. So the next time you are handed a Specification, Procedure or Process and wonder "What horse's ass came up with it?" you may be exactly right. Imperial Roman army chariots were made just wide enough to accommodate the rear ends of two war horses. (Two horses' asses.)

Now, the twist to the story:

When you see a Space Shuttle sitting on its launch pad, there are two big booster rockets attached to the sides of the main fuel tank. These are solid rocket boosters, or SRB's. The SRB's are made by Thiokol at their factory in Utah. The engineers who designed the SRB's would have preferred to make them a bit fatter, but the SRB's had to be shipped by train from the factory to the launch site. The railroad line from the factory happens to run through a tunnel in the mountains, and the SRB's had to fit through that tunnel. The tunnel is slightly wider than the railroad track, and the railroad track, as you now know, is about as wide as two horses' behinds.

So, a major Space Shuttle design feature of what is arguably the world's most advanced transportation system was determined over two thousand years ago by the width of a horse's ass.

Thus we can safely say that ancient horse's asses control almost everything... and CURRENT horses asses control everything else.

Week 17

In contrast to previous years, Week 17 still matters to a large degree in regard to some fairly prominent seeds.

Things are little more set on the AFC side. Tennessee has clinched the #1 seed and Pittsburgh has clinched the #2 seed. Indianapolis is definitely in and I think that because of the way the tiebreakers work, they are assured of the #5 seed win or lose this Sunday. That leaves the #3, #4, and #6 seeds. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner and the #4 seed will go to the AFC West winner but who those will be is the question.

The winner of the San Diego-Denver game will win the division and the #4 seed. The loser stays home during the playoffs. Currently Miami and New England are tied for the AFC East lead with Miami holding the tiebreaker. The NY Jets are a game out. New England plays Buffalo this weekend and I think it is likely that they will win that game. The Jets and Miami play each other. If Miami wins, they will win the division through tiebreaker. If the Jets win, they would need New England to lose to Buffalo to win the division. If the Jets win and New England wins, New England wins the division outright.

The #6 seed is currently held by Baltimore who close out the season at home against Jacksonville. As long as they win, they will get in as the #6 seed. If they lose, they could lose out to New England if Miami wins the division. I think Baltimore would win a tiebreaker against the Jets. That would mean that the most likely scenario has Indianapolis travelling West to Denver or San Diego while Baltimore would go to either Miami or New England.

On the NFC side, things are still a little more in play. The Giants have clinched the #1 seed and the #2 seed will go to the NFC South winner (likely Carolina). However, there is a slim chance that if Carolina loses to New Orleans and Atlanta wins against St. Louis, Atlanta might win the division. I’m not 100% sure that Carolina has locked up all the tiebreakers. But I would expect Carolina to beat New Orleans and take the #2 seed.

Minnesota and Chicago are dueling it out for the NFC North crown and the likely #3 seed. Arizona has already won the NFC West and currently sits in the #4 spot. If Minnesota wins against the Giants on Sunday, they win the division and the #3 seed. If they lose and Chicago beats Houston, Chicago wins the North, although I think Arizona could pull up to a #3 seed with a win against Seattle if Chicago takes the North.

Atlanta is in the playoffs and still has the outside chance at the division crown, but they are likely going to be the #5 seed and likely looking at a trip to Arizona. Dallas is in the driver’s seat for the #6 seed. If they beat Philadelphia, they are in. If they lose, the door opens for Tampa Bay who will be playing Oakland. If both Dallas and Tampa Bay lose, the spot goes to Chicago, assuming Chicago beats Houston and Minnesota wins the division. If Dallas, Tampa Bay and Chicago all lose, the spot goes to Philadelphia. Theoretically, if Atlanta lost and Dallas won, Dallas might move up to the #5 spot, but I’m not sure about the various tiebreakers. Plus, I don’t think it’s likely that Atlanta would lose to St. Louis.

I don’t have a lot of faith in Dallas, so I’m inclined to think that Tampa Bay will win the #6 seed and travel to Minnesota (the Giants will not be playing their starters so Minnesota should win that last game), while Atlanta travels to Arizona to take on the Cardinals.

Christmas Survey

I guess it's my turn now:

1. Wrapping paper or gift bags?
Wrapping paper. It looks bad but I actually make gift bags look worse.
2. Real tree or artificial?
Fake. I like real trees but it's much easier and cheaper this way.
3. When do you put up the tree?
Depends on when Thanksgiving falls. Usually that first weekend in December though.
4. When do you take the tree down?
New Year's day or the day after.
5. Do you like eggnog?
No.
6. Favorite gift received as a child?
I can't think of one specifically. The Fischer-Price Farm was good. I enjoyed my TV production truck (which was not a new blanket for Madame S ;) ). My tape player that I ran into the ground. My first Calvin and Hobbes book.
7. Hardest person to buy for?
My parents and my mom specifically.
8. Do you have a nativity scene?
Yes, from Mrs. X's mom. We need to get a cleared elevated space to put it out though.
9. Mail or email Christmas cards?
Mrs. X mails the Christmas cards.
10. Worst Christmas gift you ever received?
I really can't think of anything that gave me a "what the heck is this?" feeling. I probably had that when I got clothes as a kid but at least they all fit well and looked pretty good on me (even if I didn't appreciate it at the time).
11. Favorite Christmas Movie?
Alistair Sim's 1951 version of A Christmas Carol.
12. When do you start shopping for Christmas?
Dec. 26.
13. Have you ever recycled a Christmas present?
Not that I recall.
14. Favorite thing to eat at Christmas?
Mrs. X's peanut butter bars. Although I'm also fond of chocolate peanut clusters, Oreo truffles (sometimes called reindeer poop), and buckeyes.
15. Lights on the tree?
Yes, multi-colored.
16. Favorite Christmas song?
Silent Night (best done in German) from the traditionals. Christmas, 1913 is a personal favorite of mine.
17. Travel at Christmas or stay home?
Ideally, stay home.
18. Can you name all of Santa's reindeer?
Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donder (not Donner), Blitzen, and Rudolph.
19. Angel on the tree top or a star?
Neither at the moment. We had an angel growing up.
20. Open the presents Christmas Eve or Christmas day?
Christmas Day for the kids and just between us. Eve for larger family gatherings.
21. Most annoying thing about this time of the year?
The traffic when you go to any store or restaurant. Being bludgeoned by materialism.
22. Favorite ornament theme or color?
People who worry about themes for their ornaments should be slapped. Ornaments should be personal and have an individual story.
23. Favorite for Christmas dinner?
Anytime one gets to have turkey is good. But I'm also a fan of ham or large beef presentations.
24. What do you want for Christmas this year?
10 fingers, 10 toes, a strong heart, and good health for Baby X2.0
25. What is your favorite Christmas memory?
I have a few. Christmas 1982 was the first Christmas I really remembered and it seemed like a large one with lots of presents (plus everyone was there). Talking to Madame S through the vents when Mom and Dad brought in presents they had bought and we were banished to our rooms so we wouldn't see what they were. Always decorating the tree, although I really remember and like the first time I did it myself in Connecticut while listening watching the Florida recount fiasco. Toddler X's first Christmas and how she gaped in amazement at all the new toys for her.

Impossible Peace

If you ever wanted proof of the fact that the Arabs who call themselves Palestinians will never accept any deal that will produce anything less than full control over all Israel, I give you this picture:

Notice the logo of the group in the upper right corner. That is the land from the Jordan to the Mediterranean. These people simply will not stop until they drive the Jews into the sea. Unfortunately, this means that Israel's only option is to drive the Arabs out of Judea and Samaria and probably further just to create a buffer zone for themselves. In other words, peace will not be achieved until one side is dead. Such is a sorry state of affairs.

Something Interesting

I saw a passing comment regarding this. Look at the two pictures below:

Look similiar?

The first is the set that Mr. Obama gave his Democratic Nominee acceptance speech at in Denver. The second is the Altar of Zeus that was originally constructed in Pergamos and moved to a museum in Berlin in the late 19th century. One certainly can't fault Mr. Obama for his sense of style.

However, it would probably be a good idea if someone educated Mr. Obama about the history of this Altar as a certain famous 20th century German leader also gave speeches on a platform modeled after this Altar (hint: the capital of North Dakota is not named after him).

Of course, there is also the casual mention of this Altar in Rev. 2:12-13. So, I would suggest to Mr. Obama that he give his speeches from slightly less historically colorful platforms. He has enough problems without inviting unflattering comparisons to certain historical figures.

Christmas with the Muppets

For some reason, the Muppets John Denver Christmas special has never been released on any video format. So here are some clips that someone managed to record off TV back in the day.













As a bonus, here's one from Emmett Otter that is also on the Muppet's album. Robin and Emmett Otter have the same voice.

The Chicago Way

I don't really have anything specific to say regarding the scandal erupting within the Illinois governor's office. It is what it is and quite frankly it just sounds like politics as normal to me, just with a slightly illegal twist.

Some people scattered around the Internet seem to think that this will bring Mr. Obama down in a Nixonian fashion. This is a complete load. Mr. Obama and his staff did nothing wrong. In fact the timeline that has been put forth so far suggests that the Obama staff started distancing themselves away from Mr. Blagojevich as early as a week after the election when things started developing. I've even heard a suggestion that a member of the Obama staff may have tipped off the Justice Department of what was going on to allow them to expand the focus of their probe.

The only thing that is likely to affect Mr. Obama in the near future his past involvement in Chicago politics. Mr. Rezko is singing like a canary and some of his testimony will likely be used both against Mr. Blagojevich and to attack Mr. Obama. I doubt there will ever be anything to be more than a significant distraction to Mr. Obama, but this does have the air of the Paula Jones lawsuit that Mr. Clinton was swatting at when he took office. It never destroyed him, but it ultimately put a handicap on his presidency. We shall see if this ends up hitting Mr. Obama in the same way.

Bowl Anticipation

A mildly surprising 10 for 10 for me in the BCS games based off last week's speculation. Granted, I never took a stand on who would win between Virginia Tech and Boston College and I did have to hold out the caveat that the Sugar Bowl could have taken Virginia Tech, but overall, I think I did quite well. Now, the question is how things will play out and what the quality of the games will be.

Ironically, I suspect that the people who run the BCS are quietly becoming fans of the Big 10. If Texas beats Ohio St. (something I think will happen), Texas will complain no matter what happens in the title game. If Oklahoma wins, Texas will claim that they are worth of co-champion status because they beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. If Florida wins, Texas will use that as proof that they should have been put into the championship game as they had already proven that Oklahoma was an inferior opponent.

The BCS folks would also probably prefer it if Penn St. knocked off USC (also unlikely), just to keep USC from complaining too loudly that they deserved a shot at the title. This is less of a concern since the Pac-10 was just a bad conference this year and since USC’s loss was in-conference, there is little sympathy for them. USC garners about as much support as Penn St. did after their loss to Iowa and that isn’t much.

I think the match-up for the national title is the correct one within the confines of the system we have. Would it be nice to have a playoff so that Texas and USC could fight it out on the field? Sure. But that’s not going to happen this season. Oklahoma was ruled the winner of the Big 12 South by the rules established by the Big 12. They did what they had to do and have been rewarded for it. Starting about the mid-way point of the season, people began to feel that the national title game should be the Big 12 South champ (and presumably the Big 12 champ) vs. the SEC champ. We have that and I think it will be a good game with only a little bit of bitching from the peanut gallery.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas will probably beat down Ohio St. Ohio St. has improved, but I think Texas is a much better team and will pull away throughout the game. Ohio St.’s only real chance is if Texas is so distracted by their anger of not playing for the national title that Ohio St. get’s the jump on them.

Rose Bowl: I like Penn St. but I just don’t see any way that they can beat USC. Penn St. only barely beat Ohio St. and USC beat Ohio St. rather soundly. Plus, USC will have a significant home field advantage playing in the Rose Bowl. I hope Penn St. keeps it close, but I think USC’s athleticism will help them pull away as the game goes on.

Sugar Bowl: Small teams have pulled big upsets in the past. I don’t think this will be one of them. Utah is going to face an Alabama team irritated by “what-ifs” and pushed on by a huge crowd advantage. I suspect that Alabama will run constantly and just bludgeon Utah into submission mid-way through the 3rd quarter.

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati is probably going to be suffering a case of “just happy to be here” when they match up against Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech’s coaching staff is experienced and will probably use special teams to pull a few surprises on Cincinnati. Virginia Tech has lost focus at times this season and that gives Cincinnati a fighting chance, but I’m inclined to think that veteran leadership will carry this game.

Title game: I’m torn here. Florida has de-facto home field advantage with the game being played in the Orange Bowl and I think the SEC schedule has toughened them up a bit more. However, I also think that Oklahoma is built like Alabama but with a better passing game and Florida did have some fits with that team. I’m leaning toward Florida at the moment but I would not be at all surprised to see Oklahoma win this game. Either way, I think the game will be closer (and better) than the last two national title games.

Of the lesser bowl games, the ones that might be good games to watch are the Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii vs. Notre Dame), the Alamo Bowl (Missouri vs. Northwestern), the Insight Bowl (Kansas vs. Minnesota), and the International Bowl (Buffalo vs. Connecticut). People might prefer other bowls, but these intrigue me.

Football Thoughts

There has been a lot of bitching about Oklahoma getting to go to the Big 12 Championship and possibly the National Championship over Texas since Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. That may be so, but it would behoove us to remember that this was not a straight tie. It was a three-way tie. Texas lost at Texas Tech and Oklahoma beat the snot out of Texas Tech at home. If Oklahoma had lost to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech would have won the Big 12 South based on the head-to-head tiebreaker, despite the fact that just about everyone thinks that Texas is the better team. So all the Texas folks who are complaining about a lesser team than them getting vaulted ahead of them should shut up. If Texas wanted to be in control of the situation, they should have beaten Texas Tech and not whined like a bunch of crybabies.

(Yes I am channeling my inner Wilbon today).

Anyway, we also have things to look forward to in the NFL. There are four weeks left but I think that barring major injury, the NY Giants (11-1) are the team to beat in the NFC and quite possibly the NFL. There is very little chance that they will not get the #1 seed come playoff time. The #2 will go to the winner of the NFC South. At the moment, Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker against Carolina (both 9-3), but the two play each other again this weekend. The loser of this match is likely to fall to the #5 seed but will still make the playoffs.

Arizona (7-5) will probably wrap up the NFC West this weekend. They are in line for the #3 seed but could fall to the #4 if they aren't careful. Currently the #4 would go to the Minnesota Vikings (7-5), who are starting to take command of the NFC North. The Bears and Packers aren't out of it though and if the Vikings lose two major cogs in their front line due to this diet pill scandel, either team could overtake Minnesota for the division lead.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the #5 seed goes to the NFC South second place team (Carolina currently), which leaves the #6 seed. Dallas (8-4) is in this position now, but they have the Atlanta Falcons (8-4) breathing down their necks and the Washington Redskins (7-5) are also only a game out. Dallas' schedule for the next four weeks is @ Pittsburgh, NY Giants, Baltimore, and @ Philadelphia. It is not inconceivable that Dallas loses all four of those games to finish 8-8. Meanwhile the Falcons have @ New Orleans, Tampa Bay, @ Minnesota, and St. Louis. I think the Falcons will win at least two of those games to finish no worse than 10-6. Washington has @ Baltimore, @ Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and @ San Francisco. I think two are guaranteed wins and the other two are winnable at least. My inclination is that Atlanta wins the #6 seed, but I wouldn't be shocked by Washington. I think Dallas has the hardest road, probably needing to win three of those four games to make the playoffs.

Over in the AFC, Tennessee (11-1) has the #1 seed with Pittsburgh (9-3) nipping at their heels. I think Tennessee holds on to retain the #1 seed and the Steelers will have to settle for #2. Interestingly enough, in Week 16, Tennessee plays at Pittsburgh. It could be a preview of what the AFC Championship game looks like, although the location might be reversed. The #3 seed will go to the AFC East winner. The NY Jets (8-4) are in the driver's seat, but New England and Miami are lurking (both 7-5). I think New England's remaining schedule is soft enough that they might go 4-0 and finish 11-5. That would put pressure on the Jets to do the same. The first three games should be easy enough but that match-up against Miami in Week 17 could very well have some serious playoff implications. Denver is sitting pretty in the AFC West and should finish with the #4 seed.

It is not inconceivable that Miami, New England, and the Jets could all finish 11-5. That would create a fun little scrum with Indianapolis (8-4) and Baltimore (8-4) also vying for the #5 and #6 seeds. Indianapolis looks as though it has a real shot to go 12-4, depending on whether or not they can take Jacksonville and Tennessee is playing their A-team in the last two weeks of the season. Baltimore probably has the hardest road as they take on Washington, Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, and Jacksonville. But this still gives them a reasonable opportunity to go 12-4 or 11-5. If Baltimore did finish 11-5 and Miami beats the Jets in Week 17, Indianapolis would probably secure the #5 seed and we would be left looking at a lot of tiebreakers to see who would get the #6 between Baltimore, Miami, and the Jets. If the Jets were to win that last game, they win the division and the tiebreaker is between Baltimore and New England.

No matter what happens, I'm currently leaning towards Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee in the AFC Championship and NY Giants vs. someone from the NFC South (can't quite decide yet).

100 Things

I stole this from Mrs. X's blog. Things I have done are in bold.

1. Started your own blog
2. Slept under the stars
3. Played in a band
4. Visited Hawaii
5. Watched a meteor shower
6. Given more than you can afford to charity
7. Been to Disneyland
8. Climbed a mountain (a very small one)
9. Held a praying mantis
10. Sang a solo
11. Bungee jumped (no way in Hell!)
12. Visited Paris
13. Watched a lightning storm at sea
14. Taught yourself an art from scratch
15. Adopted a child
16. Had food poisoning
17. Walked to the top of the Statue of Liberty
18. Grown your own vegetables
19. Seen the Mona Lisa in France
20. Slept on an overnight train
21. Had a pillow fight
22. Hitch hiked
23. Taken a sick day when you’re not ill
24. Built a snow fort
25. Held a lamb
26. Gone skinny dipping
27. Run a Marathon
28. Ridden in a gondola in Venice
29. Seen a total eclipse
30. Watched a sunrise or sunset
31. Hit a home run (came close once)
32. Been on a cruise to the Caribbean
33. Seen Niagara Falls in person
34. Visited the birthplace of your ancestors
35. Seen an Amish community
36. Taught yourself a new language
37. Had enough money to be truly satisfied
38. Seen the Leaning Tower of Pisa in person
39. Gone rock climbing
40. Seen Michelangelo's David
41. Sung karaoke
42. Seen Old Faithful geyser erupt
43. Bought a stranger a meal at a restaurant
44. Visited Africa
45. Walked on a beach by moonlight
46. Been transported in an ambulance
47. Had your portrait painted
48. Gone deep sea fishing
49. Seen the Sistine Chapel in person
50. Been to the top of the Eiffel Tower in Paris
51. Gone scuba diving or snorkeling
52. Kissed in the rain
53. Played in the mud
54. Gone to a drive-in theater
55. Been in a movie
56. Visited the Great Wall of China
57. Started a business
58. Taken a martial arts class
59. Visited Russia
60. Served at a soup kitchen
61. Sold Boy Scout popcorn
62. Gone whale watching
63. Got flowers for no reason
64. Donated blood, platelets or plasma
65. Gone sky diving
66. Visited a Nazi Concentration
67. Bounced a check
68. Flown in a helicopter
69. Saved a favorite childhood toy
70. Visited the Lincoln Memorial
71. Eaten Caviar
72. Pieced a quilt
73. Stood in Times Square
74. Toured the Everglades
75. Been fired from a job
76. Seen the Changing of the Guards in London
77. Broken a bone
78. Been on a speeding motorcycle
79. Seen the Grand Canyon in person
80. Published a book
81. Visited the Vatican
82. Bought a brand new car
83. Walked in Jerusalem
84. Had your picture in the newspaper
85. Read the entire Bible
86. Visited the White House
87. Killed and prepared an animal for eating
88. Had chickenpox
89. Saved someone’s life
90. Sat on a jury
91. Met someone famous
92. Joined a book club
93. Lost a loved one
94. Become a parent (edited since I can't have a baby)
95. Seen the Alamo in person
96. Swam in the Great Salt Lake
97. Been involved in a law suit
98. Owned a cell phone
99. Been stung by a bee
100. Read an entire book in one day

Total = 33

A Republican Joke

To show there is no hard feelings after the election, Gov. Sarah Palin has cordially invited President-elect Obama and Vice-President-Elect Biden on a moose hunting trip. Vice President Cheney has offered to teach them gun safety and Sen. Ted Kennedy has offered to drive the party back to the cabins after the pre-hunt party.

Ohio St. Vault Up

The folks that run the BCS are breathing a huge sign of relief this weekend. Several nightmare scenarios could have occurred but now they are free and clear of almost all the major problems.

As both Alabama and Florida won convincingly on Saturday, there will be no argument from anyone that whichever one wins the SEC championship next week deserves to go to the National Title Game. On the other side, both Texas and Oklahoma won so Texas Tech is kept out of the Big 12 Championship. There might be some quibbling over the fact that Oklahoma won the Big 12 South title due to a higher BCS ranking, despite the fact that Texas won the head-to-head match-up, but that’s the way the tie-breakers went. I don’t think anyone is going to dispute Oklahoma as an unworthy title contender.

Also helping the BCS folks is the fact that Oregon St. lost the Civil War to Oregon. This means that USC will win the Pac-10 title and a berth in the Rose Bowl if they beat UCLA this weekend. It also means that the BCS would have another conference champion to turn to if Oklahoma gets upset by Missouri on Saturday. Granted, things look like they would go for Texas if Oklahoma lost, but there is an outside chance that the voters would vault USC up just to make sure that the National Championship is between two conference champions. But I think Oklahoma will win and this will all be a moot point.

As such, my latest projections for the BCS bowls are as follows:

National Title: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Penn St. vs. USC
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio St.
Sugar: Alabama vs. Utah
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech/BC

There is an outside possibility that if Virginia Tech wins the ACC, the Sugar Bowl might step on the Orange Bowl’s toes and invite Virginia Tech to face off against Alabama. That would then force the Orange Bowl to take Cincinnati and Utah (which might not be a bad game actually). I should also note that while Boise St., TCU, and Ball St. are in the top 12 of the BCS rankings, the BCS is only required to give an automatic berth to one non-BCS school and Utah has the highest ranking (#6) of the four. Given the options, I believe that the Fiesta Bowl will opt for the proven traveler in Ohio St. over the other three that I have mentioned (even though Boise St. (#9) is ranked ahead of them (#10)). Texas Tech (#7) is not BCS bowl eligible because 2 teams from the Big 12 have already been taken.

BCS Troubles

So we are now firmly entrenched in the madness that is the BCS. A couple of things have been decided, but for the most part, it’s a holy mess. Here is what we know now:

Big 10 – Penn St. has won the conference and been invited to the Rose Bowl. At #8 in the BCS standings, they are in no danger of being offered a chance to play in the title game. They can thank Ohio St. for stinking things up for the Big 10 the last two years. Ohio St. incidentally is #10 in the BCS and will play in the Capital One Bowl.

Big East – Cincinnati has the inside track. Although there are two games left, if they beat Syracuse next week, they win the conference and will be invited to a BCS game (likely the Orange Bowl). If they lose, West Virginia will probably squeak in. Only the conference winner will be invited to a BCS game this year.

ACC – The ACC keeps shifting and I’m not sure who is on top in each division. They have one more regular season game that will probably shake things up even more and then the two winners will play the conference championship on Dec. 6. Like the Big East, only the conference champion will be invited to a BCS bowl game this year (Orange).

SEC – Now things start to get interesting. Alabama and Florida have already won their respective divisions and will play for the overall title on Dec. 6. Assuming both teams win the game they have in-between then, the winner will go to the National Title Game and the loser will probably also be taken as a replacement candidate (probably Sugar Bowl).

Pac 10 – The Pac 10 is weird this year. USC is 9-1 and ranked #5 in the BCS. However, they are not in first place. Oregon St. is 7-3 overall, but 6-1 in conference and USC’s only loss is to Oregon St. Since the conference title is based on your conference record and not your overall record, Oregon St. and USC are tied and Oregon St. has the tiebreaker since they beat USC in the head-to-head match-up. If Oregon St. wins next week, they will win the Pac 10 and be invited to the Rose Bowl to play Penn St. USC will likely get an at-large berth in another BCS bowl, but several things have to go their way to get into the title game.

Big 12 – Missouri has already won the Big 12 North so that part is easy. There is currently a three-way tie between Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma for the lead in the Big 12 South with each team at 10-1. Since they’ve all beaten each other in a round robin fashion, the tiebreaker falls to highest BCS ranking. Texas is #2 while Oklahoma is #3. The real rub though could come in next weeks games. Texas plays Texas A&M and Texas Tech plays Baylor. Neither game should produce an upset. Oklahoma on the other hand, plays Oklahoma St., a team that is also very good and has a history of upsetting Oklahoma even when Oklahoma has been a much better team. If Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St., Texas Tech will win the South by virtue of their win over Texas since they will now be the only teams at 11-1. For Oklahoma to win the South, they would need Texas A&M to somehow upset Texas while winning their game against Oklahoma St. Then we would see who wins the Big 12 Title Game. If Missouri or Texas Tech wins the Big 12 Title game, they would go to the Fiesta Bowl and other scenarios play out for the national title game. But if Oklahoma or Texas wins the Big 12 Title, they will go the title game.

A Missouri or Texas Tech win in the Big 12 represents a headache for the BCS as then either Oklahoma or Texas will probably have sufficient ranking to warrant the #2 slot in the national title game. We would then be faced with the possibility that the National Champion may not be a division winner. The last time this happened Nebraska managed to get the #2 ranking despite not making the Big 12 title game due to their loss to Colorado. They faced off against Oklahoma and Oklahoma destroyed them.

We should also note that Utah has earned a berth in a BCS game by being the highest ranked non-BCS school in the top 12. Utah is ranked #7 while Boise St. is #9 but the BCS is only forced to honor one non-BCS conference team and the highest ranked will get preference.

Despite all the nasty little things that might happen I think things will shake out and the BCS games will be something like as follows: Texas will win the Big12 title and be invited to the national title game. Florida will upset Alabama and also be invited to the national title game. In the final standings, Texas will be #1 and Florida #2 so the Fiesta Bowl will get one pick, followed by the Sugar Bowl. I believe each bowl will pick USC and Oklahoma but I’m not sure who will take what. I’m guessing that the Fiesta will take USC because of proximity, but Oklahoma fans travel well so there is no guarantee.

One those selections are done, the Rose Bowl will take their two teams (Oregon St. and Penn St.). The Fiesta Bowl might take Utah next since the Pac 10 has had trouble with the Mountain teams this year and there is large Utah fan base in that region of the country. The Sugar Bowl would likely take Alabama to face off against Oklahoma and tap into the regional market. The Orange Bowl would then be forced to take Cincinnati and whoever wins the ACC.

Rose: Oregon St. vs. Penn St.
Orange: Cincinnati vs. ACC winner
Sugar: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Fiesta: USC vs. Utah
National Title (at the Orange Bowl): Texas vs. Florida

Merit for Thee, Not Me

Mrs. X and I are fans of the show Ugly Betty. Last night’s episode was good but also revealed the strange TV dynamics that writers come up with in their need to resolve the major plotline in 40 minutes.

The central plot was that Betty finds out about this special program for magazine assistants trying to move up in the world. Betty, of course, gets all hyped up believes that the world will end if she doesn’t get into the program this year when the deadline is only 2 days away. We also find out that the program will only take one person from each magazine and she is competing with the other editor-in-chief’s assistant (Mark). Of course the big twist is that her two day effort seems to beat out Mark’s three-month extravaganza but we find out that it is only because she is Latina and they need to fill their quota. Betty feels bad and withdraws her name and Mark gets in. However, at the end, Betty’s boss resubmits her name under a different magazine that she had worked with him on and she gets in to the program.

Now, the part that bothers me a little bit is that Betty goes through this whole martyr’s complex about getting in to the program based almost strictly on her race. Yet in the end, when she gets in on the other magazine title, it doesn’t bother her that she is still in only because she fulfills a quota so long as she doesn’t keep Mark out. It makes the whole point of standing and being judged on your own merits that they beat us over the head with the whole episode totally moot.

A far more realistic attitude would have been Betty having to wait until next year and spending the couple of months necessary to put together the type of presentation that should be expected. But that doesn’t make for a very good happy ending to an episode.

Why is he doing it?

Word on the street is that Bill Clinton is finally opening the books on who donated to his Presidential Library to clear the way for Hillary to be fully vetted for Secretary of State. People keep going round and round as to why Mr. Obama is offering her the job and why she should take it.

I think Ms. Clinton is inclined to take the job because although she seems to be operating well in the Senate, she is stuck in lack of power positions. There is bad blood between the Clinton and Obama camps and the Democrats are not going to create an antagonistic Senate by vaulting her forward into a major leadership position. She can’t even move beyond Chuck Schumer since he is the senior senator from New York. She also can’t run for President in 2016 as she will be nearly 70 years old. The post at Foggy Bottom will provide her with both visibility and power at the moment and nothing about a cabinet position eliminates her from either returning to the Senate in a few years or running for Governor of New York in 2014.

The real question is why Mr. Obama is offering her the post. Mr. Obama is slowly filling both his cabinet and certain staff positions with Clinton veterans and now he is very close to putting them back in the light of one of their old captains. Through this move, Mr. Obama does come dangerously close to allowing his authority to be undermined and give rumors to a shadow presidency being run out of Foggy Bottom.

One possibility is that Mr. Obama is embracing the theory of keeping your enemies even closer than your friends. Another is that Mr. Obama wants the Clinton loyalists to pee out of the tent rather than in it as LBJ used to say. The third possibility (and one that I think is most likely) is that since most of the truly experienced people are Clinton veterans, Mr. Obama has no choice but to include Ms. Clinton just to keep these people in line and not try to undermine him from within before the people he likes get fully up to speed. However, this presumes that Ms. Clinton will follow the whims and dictates of Mr. Obama.

We don’t know how interested she is in playing ball and whether she is interested in being a good soldier or if she is interested in pushing the pieces around the board as the woman behind the curtain. If she accepts, it will make for a very interesting show.

Who Would Suceed?

Mrs. X and I came up with an odd little conundrum last night while talking. Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden will be sworn in as the new President and Vice-President at noon on January 20. This will obviously be a huge event and all the Washington notables will be there. However, what would happen if there was a terrorist attack that resulted in large casualties at the inaguration, including the new President and Vice-President?

The standard order of succession would go first to Speaker of the House (Nancy Pelosi, D-CA) and then to the President pro-tempore of the Senate (Robert Byrd, D-WV). However, I'm sure they would be invited to the capital building and would probably be killed in whatever attack that killed President Obama and Vice-President Biden. Normally, it would then pass to the various cabinet officers. However, the Presidential Succession Act of 1947 specifically states that to be eligible to be in the line of succession, officers must have been appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. So any cabinet officers that Mr. Obama would appoint would be ineligable.

Our best guess is that one or two members of the Bush cabinet would not be allowed to resign from their posts until at least one of Mr. Obama's cabinet appointees had been confirmed, setting up his own line of succession. Much like the State of the Union address, the big cabinet officers would probably be attending the inaguration as guests of the outgoing President (Mr. Bush), so it would fall to some lowly secretary who would not be allowed to resign and then not attend the inaguration. After the big four of State, Treasury, Defence and AG, succession would pass to Interior and then Agriculture. So if there was a huge terrorist attack on Inaguration Day, one could look forward to the prospect of President Dirk Kempthorne or President Ed Schafer.

Claymation Christmas

I know I promised no more embeds for a while, but with Christmas coming, I thought about this. This one is for you Madame S:











Sorry, I can't find Angels We Have Heard on High. If I find it, I'll edit this.

Right Lisa; Some Magical Animal...

I enjoy pork ribs but I've never been a fan of BBQ sauce. So I was quite happy with a recipe for ribs that I found online and then tried last night. The meat was savory with a hint of sweetness and it was literally falling off the bones as a I pulled it out of the crock pot. Give it a whirl if you would like a change up to BBBQ (The extra B is for BYOBB).

Why's that "B" there?
That's a typo.

2 cups cranberries (8 oz)
1/3 cup maple syrup
1/3 cup packed brown sugar
1/2 cup water
1 Granny Smith apple - diced (~1 cup)
1 tsp Dijon mustard
1/4 tsp cinnamon
1/4 tsp nutmeg
3-4 lbs pork ribs
1 large onion (sliced)

1) Combine cranberries, syrup, brown sugar, water, and apple in saucepan; bring to a boil
2) Reduce heat to Med-Low and simmer for 5 minutes
3) Stir in mustard, cinnamon, and nutmeg
4) Layer onion at the bottom of the crock pot
5) Place ribs on top of onion then ladle sauce into crock pot to distribute it evenly
6) Cook on low for 7-9 hrs.

Optional - drain juices in crock pot into a sauce pan. Heat to boiling and mix in 1 tbsp cornstarch mixed with 1-2 tbsp of water. Stir until sauce is thickened and serve over top of ribs.

Gordon WITH HAIR

Okay this is the last embed for a while, I promise. But I was playing some Sesame Street clips for Toddler X yesterday and I stumbled across this one. I'm not a huge fan of the I Love Trash song, but it's amusing to see an orange Oscar to say nothing of the volume of hair that Gordon has. Gordon has been bald as long as anyone can remember and seeing him with hair is just weird.



Here's another one from 1969. Toddler X has a Sesame Street CD where this song is sung by Elmo, but it's interesting to see the original. Plus, we can see how far the Big Bird costume has evolved.

The Wall

Mrs. X likes to make fun of me on occation for my wierd nostalga, but that's okay.

One of Madame S and I's favorite shows to watch growing up was Alvin and the Chipmunks. One episode that stuck in my mind (and didn't get shown very often) was one where the band went to West Berlin and ended up giving a concert over in East Berlin. It was a corny episode, but the song was memorable. I had always assumed that it was a U2 song, but I've never seen it outside of the episode so I must assume that it was an original song.

After the wall came down, the episode wasn't shown much as it seemed very dated. But the song is still good. In a way, it harkens back to the simples of childhood when we had an easily understandable enemy and it was easy to believe that something as simple as a wall coming down could really create lasting peace. Anyway, here's a little bit throw back:

Dancing Jesus

Because what blog written by Mr. X is complete without it?

2012 Postulation

Four years ago I postulated that either Mr. McCain or Mr. Giuliani would square off against Ms. Clinton. Mr. Obama threw a wrench into that little scenario but I can still pat myself on the back for getting the soul of the argument right.

Obviously Mr. Obama will be running again in four years and it is likely that he will keep Mr. Biden on the ticket, but what of the Republicans? Many people are pushing Ms. Palin as the front runner and she will certainly be in the mix I imagine. Still, my early gut is leaning towards a Romney/Jindal ticket, especially if Mr. Obama's economic proposals go south.

Biden to Aid Assyrian Rise?

Whatever you feel about Mr. Obama’s politics, probably the most annoying thing that will occur, at least in the first stages of Mr. Obama’s presidency, are the constant accusations that he is the Antichrist. Although he does have ties to European royalty through his mother (and is therefore possibly descended from the Danites), he does not conform to many of the other prerequisites for the Antichrist, several of which I mentioned in my post from August 8, 2008. Mr. Obama IS NOT THE ANTICHRIST! Get over it.

Now, there is a little interesting tidbit in the fact that a person tied to Mr. Obama’s presidency could produce a key characteristic for the Antichrist, Vice President-Elect Joe Biden. I have been reading a great deal about the possibility that Isaiah and Jeremiah were quite literal when they referred to the Antichrist as “the Assyrian.” Assyria ceased to exist as a nation more than 2,500 years ago when Nebuchadnezzar’s father conquered it and added it to Babylonia. However, the Assyrian people have continued with a unique culture that has managed to survive all these long years. Ever since the end of World War I, prominent members of the Assyrian community have been agitating for an independent Assyrian state with Nineveh (Mosul) as its capital.

Now, not long after things began to take a bad turn in Iraq, Senator Joe Biden offered up a plan to divide Iraq into three independent regions: Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia. Obviously, nothing ever came of this plan and Iraq has stabilized greatly since then. However, if the region becomes unstable again, especially in the light of a dramatic war involving Israel, Vice President Biden might be offered as a mediator and he might offer a variation on his divvying up Iraq plan.

If the Nineveh province is split off and given its own government as a homeland for the Assyrian people, it could become the homeland and vehicle that the Antichrist uses to gain power. We should remember that he is referred to as a little horn. This implies that he is the leader or a prominent official in a small nation, making his rise to world leader that much more dramatic. Being elected president or prime minister of a tiny nation risen from the ashes of history would create very humble beginnings for him.

Three Trials?

I had a very interesting thought earlier today. I have been slowly reading a book called Israelestine (you try getting a lot of reading done with a toddler in the house). In most eschatological circles, there is a general feeling that since Israel has returned to the land, the next major event that would happen is the Battle of Gog and Magog (Ezek. 38-39). This book instead advocates that before the Battle of Gog and Magog can occur, Israel must defeat the grand alliance of nations arrayed against her in Psalm 83. This makes a great deal of sense to me as I have always been very curious at the absence of Syria in the Gog and Magog alliance, which has always led me to speculate that the Burden of Damascus (Isa. 17) has occurred prior to the Gog invasion. If Damascus is destroyed during the war with the Psalm 83 nations, it would clear up a lot of things.

Very little is holding back the Psalm 83 alliance at the moment. The only participants listed who are not chomping at the bit to destroy Israel at the moment are Egypt and Jordan, and I believe that they would enter in a heartbeat if thought they could destroy Israel in a single stroke. I have been idly wondering if the grand test that Mr. Biden alluded to last month, might be a major assault on Israel by these powers through a promise of support by Iran. If it is and it does escalate into the grand war with the Psalm 83 powers and Israel feels that they have no friends in the world, they might feel it is in their better interests to openly destroy her enemies rather than kick the can down the road as they did in the 2006 Lebanon War.

Once her enemies were destroyed, Israel would probably consolidate all the conquered territory, much to the rage of the rest of the world. But since none of them would probably raise a finger to help Israel during the war, I doubt Israel would feel overly inclined to respect the wishes of the world. It will take time to consolidate and settle the land they have taken. There would probably be a large migration of Jews to the new Israel as land will be freely available and the public relations outcome of the war would probably cause a nasty spike in anti-Semitism. With this new population and resources, Israel would probably become very wealthy and powerful. The rest of the nations would eventually be forced to trade and make peace with her just to share in the wealth.

I believe the next three Sabbatical Cycles observed by Israel will be of great importance, due to their following the 40-year period of testing running from 1967 to 2007. This first Sabbatical cycle began September 30, 2008 and will run until September 13, 2015. My thought is that this great Psalm 83 War will occur during this space of time (I think more towards the beginning of it). The next Sabbatical Cycle runs from September 14, 2015 to September 25, 2022. It is quite possible that the Gog and Magog War will not occur until this second cycle, giving Israel time to possess and develop their new found wealth as well as to start letting their guard down before being swooped down on by the Russians, Iranians, etc.

If these two possibilities come to pass, it sets up a very interesting suggestion of what might occur during the third Sabbatical Cycle, which runs from September 26, 2022 to September 9, 2029. After all, things do seem to come in threes.

The Aftermath

Well, to say that I was wrong would be an understatement. I honestly expected the people to be a bit more tentative about Mr. Obama and his lack of detail. But if the people are upset enough any change is good, even if it is vague change. Interesting to note that even the the most pessimistic analysts on the right-wing sites underestimated Mr. Obama's victory so I can take some solace in that.

What does it mean going forward? Hard to say. I fully take Mr. Biden at his word that there will be a major assault on this nation or its allies in 2009. Mr. Clinton had the WTC bombing in 1993 and Mr. Bush had 9/11 in their first years. What his response will be will be interesting. Although I think Al Qaeda would like to be the major perpetrators of this attack, I lean more towards an Iranian sponsored attack on Israel to feel out Mr. Obama rather than a direct assault as we saw for the last two Presidents.

We don't know how things will go in type of attack based on both Mr. Obama's lack of experience and the great unknown that is the Israeli leadership. I will say that even if Israel stands alone with the most incompetent boobs you can imagine leading her, I firmly believe that she will survive against all odds. It is us who have abandoned her that will reap sorrow. I don't mean to be melodramatic, but I am a very strong believer in the promises God has made to His people and while Mr. Obama might turn into the greatest friend Israel has ever had, I have yet to see any evidence of that fact. Here's hoping that I'm as wrong about this as I was about the results of the election.

Our Long National Nightmare is Over

…or is just beginning depending on your point of view and how many lawsuits get filed tomorrow. My intention is to maintain a little journal (most of which will be on paper and then uploaded later) of today’s events just for fun recording purposes. I don’t expect things to be settled until after midnight so there will be lots of updates I imagine.

9:00 AM – Mrs. X arrives at polls and discovers a really long line at our polling place. I have already voted absentee.

9:25 AM - I was just thinking that if Mr. Obama loses, the PUMAs are going to come out with the long knives and slaughter the Obama supporters wholesale. There will be a political bloodbath the likes we haven't seen in more than 30 years.

9:40 AM - Mrs. X finishes voting. Despite getting a "I Voted" sticker, Toddler X did not vote.

12:20 PM - Early voting reports indicate voting problems in scattered locations in Philadelphia as well as other parts of the country. Also reports of lower than expected turnout so far in Manhattan, although other locations around the country are exceeding turnout expectations. Mr. McCain has also filed a lawsuit in VA requesting a 10-day extention for arrival times of military ballots. It seems the Pentagon sent them out late (typical military efficiency) and they are coming back behind the filing deadline. No word on any ruling.

12:50 PM - Mrs. X found a better one that had pretty pictures last night, but here's a quick and dirty schedule of poll closing times and EV totals.

1:55 PM - I have no objection to this.

3:30 PM - I have seen a couple of conservative commentators suggest that the MSM will call one or two states early for Mr. Obama and then be forced to reverse themselves when the actual vote totals come in. I disagree. The last two elections have been illuminating on how to get made a fool of and I think the MSM has no wish to repeat that mistake. Plus, if the MSM truly believes that Mr. Obama will win in a landslide, it is in their best interest to keep the process as drawn out as possible to drive up ratings. If a state has been ruled a toss-up or even a leaner, I fully expect all news networks to wait as long as humanly possible to make the call.

I switched to paper here so this is a transcript of what I wrote at the time:
6:00 PM - First closings in KY and IN. No declarations will be made until at least 7.

6:07 PM - CNN is showing a happy Obama and a fighting McCain. I imagine this suits the narrative they want to portray.

6:21 PM - 60-38 McCain with 0% in KY

6:29 PM - 55-44 Obama with 1% in IN

6:42 PM - According to CNN's exit polling data, all those who identified themselves primarily as white evangelicals favored McCain in all 50 states.

7:00 PM - All networks call KY for McCain and VT for Obama. No surprises there.

7:05 PM - Warner (D) declared winner in VA's Senate race. CNN calls IN governor's race for Daniels (R).

7:19 PM - FL votes coming in. All polls won't close until 8.

7:30 PM - Polls close in OH and WV. No calls.

7:37 PM - Fox calls WV for McCain.

7:47 PM - Bath time for Toddler X to be followed by bed.

8:07 PM - Returned from bath while Mrs. X puts Toddler X to bed. OK, SC, TN called for McCain. NJ, IL, DC, MD, DE, MA, CT, and ME called for Obama. No real surprises, although CNN is not giving Obama all 4 of Maine's votes, just the first 3.

8:21 PM - Fox calls NH for Obama. That's earlier that I anticipated. Not a good sign.

8:26 PM - Sununu (R) defeated in NH. Collins (R) wins in ME.

8:28 PM - CNN calls NH for Obama.

8:31 PM - Kerry (D) wins reelection. Fox projects PA for Obama. Very bad sign for McCain.

8:39 PM - CNN projects PA for Obama. Must be some damning evidence beyond the exit polls.

8:45 PM - Fox calls GA for McCain.

8:55 PM - Fox calls AR for McCain.

8:58 PM - CNN calls AL for McCain.

9:00 PM - Obama wins RI, MN, MI, WI, NY. McCain wins WY and ND.

9:20 PM - McConnell (R) wins KY senate race.

9:22 PM - Fox projects NM and Ohio to Obama. That's the death knell if it stands.

9:24 PM - CBS calls LA for McCain.

9:36 PM - KS called for McCain.

9:55 PM - TX called for McCain.

10:00 PM - Switching over to Comedy Central to watch Daily Show Election Special. IA to Obama, UT to McCain.

10:17 PM - MS to McCain.

10:52 PM - Fox calls VA for Obama. First time since 1964 its gone Democrat.

11:00 PM - CA, OR, WA, HI called for Obama. All networks declare Obama President-Elect.

11:18 PM - McCain concedes. I'll be curious to check Israeli reaction tomorrow.

11:23 PM - FL and CO called for Obama.

11:30 PM - I can't help but think about a sermon I heard once how Psalm 107 began the Deuteronomy section of the Psalms, which also coincides with the end of Israel's last 40 year test. If even half of the accusations that Republicans threw at Mr. Obama are true, Israel will be standing on her own and we will suffer for it (Gen. 12:3). I shall be very curious to see what Israel does in the next two months and especially if Bibi is elected.

11:33 PM - NV called for Obama.

11:34 PM - Only IN, NC, MO, MT, AK not called.

11:36 PM - Off to bed; much earlier than I expected.

Nov 5, 7:00 AM - AK, MT called for McCain. IN called for Obama. NC not called but looks Obama. MO not called but looks McCain. Coleman (R) ahead in MN senate race by 2,000 votes. Recount to be conducted.

Prediction Time

At long last the moment has come. It appears that the media is predicting an Obama win. It is certainly possible, but I am inclined to believe that it will be much closer than what is currently predicted. The way I see it, there are a few states that have the potential to flip to one side or the other from their 2004 positions. I will say up front that if any state outside of the ones that I’ve listed and discussed flip, it is going to be a very bad night for the other person.

Kerry states: Maine, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania
Bush states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Maine: I really don’t expect Maine to flip, but I felt it was necessary to include it because of what could happen in the second district. As the more conservative of the two (and smaller) there is at least a chance that it could have 1 EV peeled off for Mr. McCain, even if Mr. Obama wins the overall state. Given the logical way that I’ve outlined a tie could occur, this vote could be very important.

New Hampshire: Of all the Kerry states, I think this the one most likely to flip. Mr. McCain has made a second home for himself in this state and it has always been the most conservative of the New England states (meaning that it’s perfect for Mr. McCain’s brand of conservatism). The only real unknown is how strongly the Massachusetts exiles that populate the southern border will turn out for Mr. Obama. It was these people in particular that drove the state to Mr. Kerry. Without a Massachusetts man in the race, these folks might be a little less enthusiastic.

Pennsylvania: This is a state that should not be in play. However, the more conservative Democrats of western Pennsylvania have never quite gotten over the “bitter clingers” comments that were made over the summer. Even worse for Mr. Obama, over the weekend the transcript of an interview he gave in 2007 was released where he noted that he favors using price controls and other means to prevent the construction of new coal plants (clean or otherwise) in the US. Given that western Pennsylvania’s economy is heavily dependent on coal mining, this attitude could result in the loss of thousands of mining and processing jobs. A switch of about 75,000 votes of people who voted for Mr. Kerry would turn the state red for the first time in twenty years.

Florida: This state has always showed it to be close, but it is unlikely that it will flip. The African-American population is lower in Florida than in the rest of the South and has turned out very heavily for Democrats in the past. The Cuban population is apparently very galvanized against Mr. Obama out of fear that he will impose Socialism-lite and they fled to the US to escape that. In addition, there is a very large military absentee vote that will heavily favor Mr. McCain (estimates are that Mr. McCain wins the military vote nearly 3-1).

North Carolina: NC normally would not be so close, but during the bailout period, there were shortages of gas and other supplies which drove voter anger up significantly. Mr. Obama is doing well in the Research Triangle and in several swing counties. However, Mr. McCain is still showing well due to high rural support. I think North Carolina will stay in the red column mostly due to absentee military support again. Quite a few military personnel are stationed out of Ft. Bragg and will probably break the tie between the rural and city voters.

Virginia: Mr. Obama has been polling well in this state. Like North Carolina, Virginia will have a large absentee military vote (Navy) that will heavily favor Mr. McCain. Unlike North Carolina though, Mr. Obama has been polling ahead by 5-7 points, rather than the 2-3 seen south. Rural turnout will be high and most of it will counterbalance the heavy blue regions of northern Virginia. My gut says that Virginia will stay red, but I think it will be very close and I would not be shocked to see a statewide recount ordered on Wednesday.

Ohio: Mr. Obama has made a big push in Ohio, but it is unlikely that he will swing the state. If Mr. Obama has problems with the western Pennsylvania voters, he has had equal or greater problems with that same style of voters who populate southeastern Ohio. Democratic wins in Ohio depend on capturing this region to break the tie between the three big cities and the rural voters. If Mr. Obama is not holding these regions, he will not win the state.

Indiana: Chicago dominates the northwestern Indiana media market and will probably pull the union voters to Mr. Obama. Also, Indiana has a large portion of the state devoted to ethanol production and those farmers may not be highly inclined towards Mr. McCain. However at its heart, Indiana is a red state. Mr. Bush won Indiana by better than 20 points and although Mr. Obama will capture quite a few of the margin, I think it is unlikely that he can make up the whole distance in one cycle.

Iowa: This is the first state on either side that is all but guaranteed to switch sides. Mr. Obama did well here during the caucuses and Mr. McCain’s opposition to ethanol will play havoc with farmers in this state. Iowans are very comfortable with Democrats and I see no reason that they won’t stand with Mr. Obama in this election.

Missouri: Missouri is returning to its bellwether status after trending hard right in the last campaign. Mr. Obama will obviously dominate St. Louis and Kansas City while Mr. McCain takes the rural portions of the state. That leaves the outer suburbs to decide the state, much as in elections past. Missouri has been swinging back and forth in the polls that I have watched, but it looks like it is still tilting red slightly. If Mr. Obama wins this election, I believe that he will win Missouri. As of yet, I see no reason to stop believing in the adage, “So goes Missouri, so goes the nation.”

Colorado: Colorado is hard to gauge. It is like Virginia in that it is mostly conservative rural, but it has had a large influx of liberals to major cities. It also has an absentee military population (Air Force), but a much smaller amount than in the three states mentioned previously. Much will probably depend on how the Hispanic turnout is. If it’s high, it is likely the state will go for Mr. Obama. If it is low, the rural and military vote should probably overwhelm the city vote and it stays red. Unlike some of the other states, I haven’t been able to get any real on-the-ground info here and can only go with my gut instincts.

New Mexico: Like Iowa, this state will almost assuredly flip back from red to blue. It has been close, but Gov. Richardson has been working hard for Mr. Obama and it only takes a thousand or so votes to flip the state.

Nevada: Nevada has always been close, especially with the growing unions in Las Vegas. However, Nevada as a whole is very liaise-fair and generally opposed to the type of big government strategies offered by Democrats. Mr. Obama will probably make it close with the anti-Yucca Mountain crowd, but I think even some of the unions will oppose him due to the card check issue.

On a whole, I have been anticipating this election coming down to how Colorado turns. It still might, but there are a few whispers in some states that I hadn’t really considered, such as Virginia and Pennsylvania. I do believe that if Mr. McCain makes his case and Pennsylvania flips from red to blue, the race is over and Mr. McCain will have won. Likewise, if Ohio goes blue, the race is over and Mr. Obama will have won.

I think the key early state to watch will be New Hampshire. Officially, New Hampshire’s polls close at 7, but they are allowed to stay open another hour in the 13 major towns. Effectively this means that the news networks won’t even dream of a call until 8 pm. If New Hampshire is called early for Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain, I think the other will have a bad night. If it takes awhile, the race will be close and the late winner will have a leg up for the remainder of the night.

I would also say that although Ohio polls close at 7:30, there will be at least one judge imposed extension so who knows how late things will go here.

I would also offer the opinion that exit polls will break hard for Mr. Obama but that they will be off like they were four years ago. I don’t know how far off, but off.

Iowa and Maine?

There are three little bits of travel trivia that suggest to me that things are not quite sewn up for Mr. Obama as some would like us to believe.

1) Mr. McCain has of course been campaigning in a lot of swing states, but he has hit Pennsylvania very hard. The hits have been hard enough to cause Gov. Rendell to beg Mr. Obama to either come back or to send surrogates to shore things up. It is important to remember that Mr. Kerry only won Pennsylvania by 2.5% (about 144,000 votes). Any reasonable shift in the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh or in the Scranton and Bethlehem regions could overwhelm any additional turnout in Philadelphia and turn the state red.

2) Todd Palin has been dispatched to Maine. Mr. McCain has been making a strong push for that extra Electoral Vote in Maine’s second district, but the internal numbers are close enough to suggest that Mr. McCain has an outside shot to take the whole state. Mr. Obama hasn’t seemed to be able to get a better that 5-7 point lead in this state. What’s more, one of the largest aspects of Maine’s economy is family-owned, small business fishermen who tend to bring in between $200,000-$250,000 a year. If many of these fishermen believe that their taxes are going up under an Obama Administration, Mr. Obama’s support in this state could go down in a hurry.

3) Mr. Obama is campaigning in Iowa. Iowa is a state that Mr. Obama should win by better than 5 points simply based on Mr. McCain’s anti-ethanol votes. If Mr. Obama has to take time out of his schedule to swing through Iowa rather than reinforcing Ohio or Virginia that lends itself to an air of danger for him.

I’ll see if I can’t get a slightly better bead on things over the weekend and give my assessment of the overall race on Monday.

Halloween

I’ve actually seen a bit more Halloween dress up at work this year. Previous years it was usually the secretaries and accounting. The secretaries are still dressing up but accounting has moved to a different building so I expected a smaller costume crowd.

For the most part, I was right. But I have seen some interesting ones among the engineers. The fellow who sits catty-corner to me is dressed up in a very impressive caveman, animal skin costume. There is a fellow in the next aisle over who is dressed as Heath Ledger’s Joker (shades of The Office). I’ve seen a woman dressed as a bee and another dressed as sexy Dorothy. My supervisor is dressed as one of the Beastie Boys in cop gear (although I think he looks like Michael Imperioli’s character on Life on Mars).

I shall be scanning around to see if I can see anything else that amuses me.

Update:

How You Know an Election is Getting a Little Too Hot

A liberal woman wrote an article about how if Mr. Obama loses this election, there might be a second Civil War from those whose believe that this election has been stolen.

The conservative reaction has been a strong, “BRING IT ON B****!” with several discussions about the proper use of guns and urban assault tactics.

Let’s all just back away people and take a deep breath. It’s only an election.

Of course, I’m sure there were a lot of people saying similar things in 1860.

Still, I put about as much stock in the thought of a second Civil War as I did in the great Canadian Migration of 2004.

Amusing Football Note

Apparently, there is a bit of a legend regarding the Washington Redskins game held right before a Presidential Election. Since 1936 (when they were still the Boston Redskins) if the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If the Redskins lose, the opposing party wins. This held true until 2004 (they lost but Bush was re-elected). This year, the Redskins will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

Mrs. X and I compete in a little football pool against each other every year. What happens is that we pick the Bengals game and four other contests that seem like they would be close match-ups. Naturally, Pittsburgh-Washington would be expected to be a good game and I put it on our roster.

Given the trend regarding the elections, one would expect that I would prefer that the Redskins win and that Mrs. X would prefer that Pittsburgh would win. Guess how we picked the game?

I picked Pittsburgh.
She picked Washington.

BTW, Mrs. X is leading our picks by 5 games. Make of that what you like ;)

Statistical Weighting

Mrs. X called her brother Mr. A last night and they got to talking about the election (he lives in PA). Their conversation got us to talking and about polling specifically. Most people take polls pretty much at face value, but every pollster manipulates the numbers they get to conform to certain preconceived notions that they have about a particular race or geographic region. This is done with something known as statistical weighting. I’ll give a numerical example:

Let’s say that I’m a pollster and I call 1000 people in a geographic region. 453 people that I call say that they are members of party A, 438 people say they are members of party B and 109 say they are independent. Each group lists their voting preference for candidates X, Y, or a third party as follows:

X Y 3p Total
A 387 54 12 453
B 44 390 4 438
I 52 51 6 109

Taken as shown, candidate Y would be leading 49.5-48.3 (which most pollsters would just report as a 50-48 race). This might seem a reasonable breakdown with the two major parties being roughly even and a reasonable amount of third party affiliation.

However, let’s say that as the pollster, I don’t believe that this is the proper party breakdown. Instead, I believe that in the region I am sampling, its 45% membership for party A, 39% for party B, and 16% for Independents. Thus, I would then multiply my numbers by a weighing factor, which would be determined by taking my perceived party affiliation percentage and dividing it by the party percentage of my sample. In our example, I would have weighing factors of 0.99 for party A, 0.89 for party B, and 1.47 for independents. This would change my numbers as follows:

X Y 3p Total
A 383 54 12 449
B 39 347 4 390
I 76 75 9 160

Summing these numbers up, we now have candidate X leading 49.8-47.6 (or 50-48), a swing of nearly 3.5 points. The fundamental flaw that is introduced is that the pollster is assuming right off the bat that his sample is fixed and only mass defection of a party away from its candidate or a large swing in unaffiliated voters will determine the outcome of the election. In fact, a pollster has no way of knowing what absolute party breakdown will be come Election Day.

This is the key element of danger for the Democratic Party. During the primary, many people came and registered to vote as Democrats, there have been massive drives to sign first-time voters (many of whom would probably favor Democratic candidates), and Mr. Obama is said to have a large get-out-the-vote apparatus in place. These three things cause many pollsters to weigh their samples a bit heavier on the Democratic end of the scale.

Now one or all of these things could be true and Democratic turnout could be much heavier that Republican, but if polls are shown to favor Mr. Obama by large margins, it could lead to a sense of complacency among Democratic voters and the hubris that it might foster among Democrats could galvanize Republicans into their own large scale get-out-the-vote effort.

One other problem is that Democrats and media outlets that are friendly to Democrats have been trumpeting these polls, telling everyone that they should vote for Mr. Obama to be part of the “cool kids table” since he’s going to win anyway. That attitude might work if we all sat around and raised our hands in public to vote (see Oct. 16 post) but we don’t. We get to vote in a quiet little booth and only you and God know who you voted for. You could talk all you want about voting for one candidate, but then quietly vote for another and not a soul would know.

Things are certainly stacked in favor for Mr. Obama to win, but there is enough uncertainty and danger out there that I would suggest that everyone sit back and just wait to see what happens. Of course, that’s what makes this process so much fun.

Israeli Elections

Tzipi Livni, head of the Kadima party, has been unable to form a coalition government. As such, she has declared the Israeli government insolvent and President Shimon Perez has called for early elections, which will likely be held in late January or early February. Essentially this means that Ehud Olmert will remain PM throughout the rest of Mr. Bush’s presidency. Whether this means he will seize the initiative and go ahead with an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is unclear at this time. However, it removes some level of uncertainty and replaces it with a new type.

In all likelihood, Likud (right-wing party) will pick up seats at the expense of Kadima and possibly Labor as well. I’d look for the ultra-orthodox party of Shas to also pick up a reasonable number of seats and these two will likely form the main body of the next coalition government. This would return Benjamin Netanyahu to the PM slot that he held in the mid-90’s. Mr. Netanyahu is much more aggressive regarding Israeli security and if it looks like Likud and Shas will gain a large number of seats, we might expect the Arabs surrounding Israel to strike before being put on the defensive, no matter what Mr. Olmert does or does not do with regard to Iran.

Also note that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has fallen ill and that Iran is strangely quiet at the moment. I think something is up and the smell of blood is in the air.

A Very, Very, Very Bad Idea!

Mrs. X and I were talking last night and I happen to mention an article that I glanced at yesterday. Apparently discussion on this article has taken off so I thought I would enumerate some of the major problems.

Essentially, a small group of Democratic Congressmen, spurred on by the economic theories of a professor, have idly discussed removing the tax-exempt status of 401(k)s and related tax shelters. Their reasoning goes that this is a large source of revenue that is being withheld from the government and that people are so scared by the volatility of the market that they want something safe. So the plan being proposed is that a person would put after tax money into a 401(k) and then the government would invest that money in government bonds at a guaranteed 3% interest. The investment money would then be given to the Social Security Administration to look over and they put a little checklist out that says you own x number of bonds that will be worth y when you plan to retire.

There are several very bad things about this plan. First, under the revised rules, the 401(k) assets would now be subject to the estate tax, giving the government the ability to take 50% of all unused assets when the owner croaks. Currently, since the 401(k) is a before tax holding, it only gets taxed when people withdraw the money and the holdings could be passed on in ownership without incurring any tax liability. But under this new plan, a 401(k) will be seen as a real asset and subject to the taxes that occur when it passes hands.

Second, since all the tax incentives will be withdrawn, employers will stop issuing matching funds to a 401(k). Currently, a company gains a massive tax write-off by giving matching funds to their employee’s accounts. But if there is no available tax write-off, a company doesn’t have any reason to give money away. So a person is losing as much as half of his potential retirement savings without the matching funds.

Third, since people are only allowed to invest in government bonds, ownership of stocks through mutual funds would crater. This in turn drives down the stock prices and the overall market as the number of people who have the ability to buy goes way down. Worse, it’s possible that the government may simply hold on to the shares that they have seized rather than put them back on the market. In effect, this would make the government the majority owner in thousands of freely traded companies and would give them the right to dictate whatever policy they saw fit for any type of company.

Fourth, we would all have to work longer because our retirements will simply not accrue enough money to support us. In 2005 and 2006, the average 401(k) earned somewhere between 7 and 15% depending on the overall aggressiveness of the fund. Yes, some of those profits have been lost, but over the life of nearly 40 years, the rate of return on stocks is much higher than 3%. This means that a person will not see anywhere near the rate of return that is being seen now.

Fifth, people will no longer have the amount that they donate to their 401(k) to take off the top of their adjusted gross income. Right now, a person has an overall gross income and that is adjusted downward based on the pre-tax donations that a person makes to their 401(k). That’s why you see one number that you use on your 1040 and a higher number that is used when noting how much you have paid to Social Security and local taxes. But if a person loses that tax-exempt status on their 401(k), the number that goes on your 1040 will now be the larger overall number. Effectively, this will push anyone who had a 401(k) into a higher tax bracket that what they had been and we will be forced to pay more taxes while saving a lot less money.

At its root, this proposal turns a means of promoting wealth and increasing collective ownership of companies into a government managed savings account. One that they can tap and spend at will, so long as they leave that promissory note called a government bond. However, if they ever go ahead with this plan, I guarantee that we will see the economy crater like no tomorrow and the 1930’s will have nothing on what will go on after this takes effect. Incidentally, Argentina is currently implementing this plan, so we’ll have an example to watch of how bad an idea this is.