The FISA Memo Summary

Over the past couple of weeks, there has been talk about a 4-page memo written by several Republican members of the House potentially being released to the public. There was a vote to release this memo by the House Intelligence Committee yesterday giving President Trump five days to review the memo and opt for its release or decline and refer it to the full House. If he declines, the full House will vote whether or not to release it.

With all the buzz going on, I did a little research to try and figure out what this memo is about and what all the fuss was about.

Back in the summer of 2016, the DNC and the Clinton campaign hired a research firm called Fusion GPS to put together information on Mr. Trump. This is fairly normal, especially with someone who does not have a political record like Trump. Fusion GPS then hired a former British Intelligence officer named Christopher Steele to compile the information, sort of like hiring a private detective. Again, nothing out of the ordinary there. Mr. Steele compiles this dossier and gives it to Fusion GPS who in turn give it to the DNC.

Where things start to get murky is that Fusion GPS had supposedly also been hired by the Russian government to lobby and oppose sanctions that were being leveled or considered against their government. Shortly after this dossier was delivered to the DNC, an application was made by people in the FBI and the DOJ to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA) for a wiretap of Trump Tower and the Trump campaign to identify whether or not Carter Page (a Trump advisor at the time) had illegal connections to the Russian government.

There are three points of interest in this. First, the dossier compiled by Fusion GPS may have been used as the source documentation for the wiretap application. If that is true, that is collusion between the DNC and the Federal government which is illegal. There is also the second accusation that the wiretaps may have extended beyond their narrowed target both in terms of the people involved and the timing allowed, meaning that the taps may have been left in after the provision by the warrant expired. Third, information collected that had nothing to do with Mr. Page or the investigation into him may have been collected and passed back to the DNC to further use against Trump. That is definitely illegal if true.

Two points. First, it is important to note that this memo is a summary of evidence collected, not the evidence itself so its interpretation can be called into question. Second, the memo was written by several Republican members of the House so again, objectivity is going to be an issue with this document.

Nevertheless, it has already had one effect in that the deputy director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe has cashed in his vacation to take a leave of absence, effective immediately, and will officially retire in March, allowing him to collect his fully vested pension. At this time it is unknown whether any other specific parties are named in the memo.

Fallout from the release of this memo is likely to amplify the partisan divide as Democrats will deny and decry it as a paranoid fever dream while Republicans will use it to accuse the Obama administration of engaging in Nixon-like tactics to ensure Clinton's victory.

I have no doubt that Mr. Trump will give the green light to the memo's release; the question is just a matter of timing. I suspect that if the State of the Union speech goes well, the memo release will be pushed back to Friday so that he can bask in the glow of validation. If it goes poorly, expect it to be released Wednesday to change the subject.