I was discussing with a co-worker about the chaos that will reign in American politics in the near future with no clear front-runners on either side. For some reference, I’m putting together a list that we can all look back on and try to determine who came out of where once we have left the Bush II era behind.
Democrats:
1) Hillary Clinton – Sen. (NY). Presumed front-runner, although much debate as to whether she could win the general election.
2) John Kerry – 2004 candidate. Still strong, although still plagued by same weaknesses of 2004 campaign.
3) John Edwards – 2004 VP candidate. Came close to winning the 2004 nomination. Has been circulating himself well and storm to the front of the pack with a win in Iowa
4) Russ Feingold – Sen. (WI). Far Left candidate and will appeal to hard core Deaniacs. Probably not strong enough to get nomination, but could seriously affect the outcome of the nomination.
5) Mark Warner – Ex-Gov. (VA). Recently retired governor has a large war chest and is reasonably well liked in the South. More moderate than Edwards, he could win if the Democrats embrace a Bill Clinton type compromise candidate.
6) Christopher Dodd – Sen. (CT). Minor candidate. Probably will drop out after New Hampshire primary.
7) Joseph Biden – Sen. (DE). Minor candidate. Might be forced to drop out prior to any primaries due to tendency to place his foot in his mouth.
8) Bill Richardson – Gov (NM). A strong Hispanic candidate and former Clinton era cabinet official. Richardson has had fluctuating popularity and is probably far behind in money collected, but he could be a very viable candidate if immigration becomes the touchstone of 2008.
9) Al Gore? – Gore has denied that he is running, although if the Democrats fail to capitalize on the opportunities in 2006, he may enter the ring to try and rescue the party.
Republicans:
1) John McCain – Sen. (AZ). McCain never stopped running in 2000. While popular with the Media and some moderates, McCain’s love of first amendment regulation has angered the base. He may not be able to sway enough of the base to secure the nomination, although he could probably peel enough Democrats to win the general election.
2) Rudy Guliani – Ex-Mayor (NY). Rudy has yet to declare himself, but he is widely expected to dip his toe into the waters soon. His socially liberal positions don’t sit well with some in the base, but many love his direct and powerful leadership style. He could be a strong spoiler if he chose to enter (read: potential VP candidate)
3) William Frist – Sen. (TN). Frist is abandoning the Senate to devote his full attention to running for President. His record in the Senate is rather wishy-washy and he has watery personality, but he might appeal to Southerners. He would actually be better served to run for governor of Tennessee, where he is very popular, and get some legislative muscle under his belt before running for President.
4) Mitt Romney – Gov. (MA). Romney is socially liberal but conservative economically. He has done well in the heavily Democratic Massachusetts and it could springboard him forward. However, there has been some question as to whether the Christian Coalition will rally behind a Mormon candidate. This could hurt Romney in the Bible-Belt states.
5) Newt Gingrich – Ex-Congressmen (GA). Newt has resurrected himself from the ashes, decrying the spending and foreign policies of the current administration. He still carries a lot of baggage and will probably not do well outside of some Southern states unless Congressional malfeasance and pork become the center of the debate.
6) Sam Brownback – Sen. (KS). A minor candidate who will appeal to the conservative Christian Coalition. He might stir here and there, but it not a real threat to get the nomination.
7) George Allen – Sen. (VA). Economically conservative and socially more conservative than most of his rivals, Allen could carry himself far if he could find a way to distinguish himself. However, he is the candidate most in the Bush mold at the moment and even Republicans are getting tired of the Bush mold.
8) Mike Huckabee – Gov. (AR). Another undeclared candidate, but one of the few Washington outsiders that might make a good run. Conservative both economically and socially, Huckabee could claim knowledge of how to efficiently run a government as he has overseen a successful economic recovery in Arkansas.
9) Rick Perry – Gov. (TX). Bush’s former Lt. Governor who has become more popular in Texas than Bush was. Perry could bring many of the same qualities as Huckabee to the table, but he will become strongest if illegal immigration comes to the fore again as his policies of border enforcement have been reasonably popular throughout the Southwest.
I’m sure there are others that I have forgotten, but I think these 18 represent the largest runners in the field at this particular time.
Monday, July 24, 2006
Friday, July 21, 2006
Waiting for Ezekiel
As I am nearly finished with the Left Behind books (at least the main series) I can understand some of the fervent desire among many that the war in Israel is the beginning of the War of Gog, which many Christians believe is the last major event before the Rapture and the Tribulation. However, it always bothers me when people allow their desires to cloud their judgment. A simple examination of the nature of the prophecy gives an excellent indication that not only is this not the beginning of the war, but that we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.
The thing that drives people the most is the knowledge that Russia and Iran have recently formed a strategic alliance. As Russia and Iran are mentioned as the primary players in the war, it’s easy to get carried away and think that they are the singular forces. However, we forget that there are several other prominent members of the alliance: Turkey (Gomer, Beth Togarmah), Libya (Put), and Cush (modern Sudan and Ethiopia). Libya has been cowed as of late to almost a non-entity, Sudan and Ethiopia are in the midst of civil wars and steadily becoming radical Islamic states (similar to Taliban Afghanistan), and Turkey is still a predominantly secular state, worried more about smoothing things over and becoming a member of the EU than anything else. Even Russia herself has no geopolitical reason to launch a massive invasion of Israel at the moment. She is still concerned in getting influence through proxies like Syria (with whom Russia recently signed a large military contract with). None of these countries (with the exception of Iran) is any position to band up and launch a massive ground invasion of Israel at the moment.
A second flaw is the geographic nature of Israel at the time of the invasion. Ezekiel 38:8 notes that the Jews have regathered into the land and have settled to the mountains of Israel. Israel is rather hilly country but the “mountains of Israel”, as often quoted in scripture, specifically refer to the territory of Ephraim and Benjamin. This region is currently under the dominion of the Palestinians under the name of the West Bank. Israel has not even fully received her inheritance of the land yet. What’s more, the Jews themselves have not even fully regathered to Israel yet. The total Jewish population of New York is still greater than the Jewish population of Israel. I myself don’t believe that we have fully seen the fulfillment of the prophecy of the Valley of Dry Bones (Ezekiel 37:1-14). If we are still in the works on that prophecy, how can we even hope to be ready to move on to Ezekiel 38 and 39?
A third point is the state of Israel’s affairs. At the time of the attack, Israel lives at peace and in a land of unwalled villages. Many scholars have tried to argue that Israel has been more at peace than any other time in her history starting in the late 80s. Yet they have been undergoing continuous suicide attacks from the Palestinians and numerous raids and harassment from Hezbollah. The DMZ of the Golan Heights is one of the most armed places in the world and Israel is in the process of building a large wall around her territory, especially in the region of Jerusalem. At no point would any person living in Israel stand up and say that they are living in a state of peace and safety.
Yet, I am not willing to say that we are not seeing prophecy fulfilled. I have no major rationalization for my feeling, but as I have alluded to in previous posts, I believe this new war could be the fulfillment of the prophecies of Amos and could spill over to some of the prophecies of Isaiah. Notable in their absence among the invaders in the War of Gog, are all the immediate neighbors of Israel. Yet all of these (with the exception of Egypt) are mentioned in Amos. The first two chapters of Amos imply that all the nations surrounding Israel have committed three major sins and that the fourth sin will bring about the judgment of God. Damascus (Syria) will be consumed with fire; Gaza (the Philistines aka the Palestinians) will be wiped out; Tyre (southern Lebanon) will have her military destroyed; Edom, Moab, and Ammon (Jordan) will be overrun and destroyed.
Israel has endured three major wars with Syrian and Jordan (1948, 1967, and 1973). The Palestinians formed themselves as a military force through the PLO in 1964, but did not directly assault Israel until the 1970’s, choosing instead to act through small (but highly visible) terrorist attacks. They attacked Israel in the Lebanese Civil War (1982) and have brought about armed uprisings through the First and Second Intafadas (1987, 2000). Lebanon has existed predominantly as a Syrian and PLO proxy through her wars with Israel. She existed as a staging area for PLO and Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the 1973 war and fought against Israel when she was forced to invade in both 1978 and 1982. Only through Israeli occupation (which ended in 2000) has southern Lebanon managed to gain any form of stability. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces six years ago, Hezbollah have entrenched themselves and will not be driven out quietly.
Now, could I be wrong? Sure. Scripture never mentions the influence of Persia on affairs during this war (and everyone knows Iran is involved in this one). What’s more, Syria and Jordan are not directly involved in the current war (although Syria is funneling weapons to Hezbollah). Israel may beat down Hezbollah and Hamas and then turn back leaving things unresolved. But my gut tells me that things are not going that way. Israel is not going to stop until they are satisfied that they will be left alone and that just won’t happen until Hezbollah and Hamas (indeed, all of the Palestinian groups) are destroyed.
I believe that the war will continue and eventually Syria will be dragged into it, if only to protect their proxy interests in the form of Hezbollah. I don’t know what could bring Jordan into the fight, unless there is a successful coup against King Abdullah II. If his (and most of his government’s) influence were removed, most of the Jordanian people would immediately rush to support a Palestinian war effort against Israel. Perhaps a military coup will occur, under the auspices of Hamas. Yasser Arafat tried to overthrow King Abdullah I many years ago and failed. Perhaps a second stab at things will succeed. Once all her neighbors are against her Israel may be forced to turn to unconventional weapons, which will bring loud condemnation from the world. But if they are successful and Israel claims the land of Syria, Jordan, and the occupied territories, and then signs a security pact with the liberated government of Lebanon, Israel could well be on her way to securing a land of peace, untroubled by fears of attack. Then I believe we can enter into discussions about the invasion of Gog.
The thing that drives people the most is the knowledge that Russia and Iran have recently formed a strategic alliance. As Russia and Iran are mentioned as the primary players in the war, it’s easy to get carried away and think that they are the singular forces. However, we forget that there are several other prominent members of the alliance: Turkey (Gomer, Beth Togarmah), Libya (Put), and Cush (modern Sudan and Ethiopia). Libya has been cowed as of late to almost a non-entity, Sudan and Ethiopia are in the midst of civil wars and steadily becoming radical Islamic states (similar to Taliban Afghanistan), and Turkey is still a predominantly secular state, worried more about smoothing things over and becoming a member of the EU than anything else. Even Russia herself has no geopolitical reason to launch a massive invasion of Israel at the moment. She is still concerned in getting influence through proxies like Syria (with whom Russia recently signed a large military contract with). None of these countries (with the exception of Iran) is any position to band up and launch a massive ground invasion of Israel at the moment.
A second flaw is the geographic nature of Israel at the time of the invasion. Ezekiel 38:8 notes that the Jews have regathered into the land and have settled to the mountains of Israel. Israel is rather hilly country but the “mountains of Israel”, as often quoted in scripture, specifically refer to the territory of Ephraim and Benjamin. This region is currently under the dominion of the Palestinians under the name of the West Bank. Israel has not even fully received her inheritance of the land yet. What’s more, the Jews themselves have not even fully regathered to Israel yet. The total Jewish population of New York is still greater than the Jewish population of Israel. I myself don’t believe that we have fully seen the fulfillment of the prophecy of the Valley of Dry Bones (Ezekiel 37:1-14). If we are still in the works on that prophecy, how can we even hope to be ready to move on to Ezekiel 38 and 39?
A third point is the state of Israel’s affairs. At the time of the attack, Israel lives at peace and in a land of unwalled villages. Many scholars have tried to argue that Israel has been more at peace than any other time in her history starting in the late 80s. Yet they have been undergoing continuous suicide attacks from the Palestinians and numerous raids and harassment from Hezbollah. The DMZ of the Golan Heights is one of the most armed places in the world and Israel is in the process of building a large wall around her territory, especially in the region of Jerusalem. At no point would any person living in Israel stand up and say that they are living in a state of peace and safety.
Yet, I am not willing to say that we are not seeing prophecy fulfilled. I have no major rationalization for my feeling, but as I have alluded to in previous posts, I believe this new war could be the fulfillment of the prophecies of Amos and could spill over to some of the prophecies of Isaiah. Notable in their absence among the invaders in the War of Gog, are all the immediate neighbors of Israel. Yet all of these (with the exception of Egypt) are mentioned in Amos. The first two chapters of Amos imply that all the nations surrounding Israel have committed three major sins and that the fourth sin will bring about the judgment of God. Damascus (Syria) will be consumed with fire; Gaza (the Philistines aka the Palestinians) will be wiped out; Tyre (southern Lebanon) will have her military destroyed; Edom, Moab, and Ammon (Jordan) will be overrun and destroyed.
Israel has endured three major wars with Syrian and Jordan (1948, 1967, and 1973). The Palestinians formed themselves as a military force through the PLO in 1964, but did not directly assault Israel until the 1970’s, choosing instead to act through small (but highly visible) terrorist attacks. They attacked Israel in the Lebanese Civil War (1982) and have brought about armed uprisings through the First and Second Intafadas (1987, 2000). Lebanon has existed predominantly as a Syrian and PLO proxy through her wars with Israel. She existed as a staging area for PLO and Hezbollah attacks against Israel in the 1973 war and fought against Israel when she was forced to invade in both 1978 and 1982. Only through Israeli occupation (which ended in 2000) has southern Lebanon managed to gain any form of stability. With the withdrawal of Israeli forces six years ago, Hezbollah have entrenched themselves and will not be driven out quietly.
Now, could I be wrong? Sure. Scripture never mentions the influence of Persia on affairs during this war (and everyone knows Iran is involved in this one). What’s more, Syria and Jordan are not directly involved in the current war (although Syria is funneling weapons to Hezbollah). Israel may beat down Hezbollah and Hamas and then turn back leaving things unresolved. But my gut tells me that things are not going that way. Israel is not going to stop until they are satisfied that they will be left alone and that just won’t happen until Hezbollah and Hamas (indeed, all of the Palestinian groups) are destroyed.
I believe that the war will continue and eventually Syria will be dragged into it, if only to protect their proxy interests in the form of Hezbollah. I don’t know what could bring Jordan into the fight, unless there is a successful coup against King Abdullah II. If his (and most of his government’s) influence were removed, most of the Jordanian people would immediately rush to support a Palestinian war effort against Israel. Perhaps a military coup will occur, under the auspices of Hamas. Yasser Arafat tried to overthrow King Abdullah I many years ago and failed. Perhaps a second stab at things will succeed. Once all her neighbors are against her Israel may be forced to turn to unconventional weapons, which will bring loud condemnation from the world. But if they are successful and Israel claims the land of Syria, Jordan, and the occupied territories, and then signs a security pact with the liberated government of Lebanon, Israel could well be on her way to securing a land of peace, untroubled by fears of attack. Then I believe we can enter into discussions about the invasion of Gog.
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Iran's Plans
Someone made an interesting comment on the blog lgf the other day that got me thinking. This person noted that the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, sent President Bush a letter a little while back encouraging him to convert to Islam. There was something in the letter about having 90 days to think about it. The 90 days expire on August 8. Then, Iran has stated that they will respond to the West’s proposals on their nuclear program on August 22.
Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.
This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.
Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.
Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.
Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.
This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.
Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.
Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.
Thursday, July 13, 2006
References
Just a quick thought by me that I mentioned during our Bible study today. If you want a possibility as to where the current hostilities in Israel are leading, read Amos 1-2 and Isaiah 17. There might be a couple of other chapters that are relevant, but I think these cover the basics. Of course, I could be way off base and things get resolved nicely. But I've got something tickling the back of my brain on this one.
Just a hunch.
Just a hunch.
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Two Fronts
Two down, two to go. This morning, Israeli troops crossed the border into Lebanon (or at least the part controlled by Hezbollah). At this point, Israel is now at war with two of her immediate four regional neighbors. Or if you would like to view it in historical Biblical terms: Israel is now at war with the Philistines and Tyre and Sidon.
Israel is currently not at war with anyone over in the West Bank, which is still nominally under the control of Fatah. However, Israeli forces are fairly concentrated there and only an invasion by Jordan would really ignite a conflict there and Jordan’s government is still pro-West (and therefore willing to ignore Israel at the moment).
Israel is also technically not a war with Syria yet. However, as Hezbollah receives the majority of its support from Syria (with weapons and support via Iran) it is probably only a matter of time before Syria feels compelled to declare war as well. That will be when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Unlike the terrorist organizations, Syria has a conventional army and air force. They also may have a large supply of chemical weapons, whether developed on their own or from Iraq, which could be loaded onto scud missiles (of which Syria has a lot).
Syria may bide her time a little bit to see how the incursion into Lebanon goes. Their first desire is to reclaim Lebanon as a territory, which they lost last year in the Cedar Revolution. Anything that allows them to reestablish themselves as a regional power will take priority first. I still believe that Syria believes they must act in a complete surprise attack with overwhelming firepower to even have a prayer of defeating Israel. I also believe that such an attack would fail and if Syria chose to use chemical weapons, Israel would respond by turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.
The storm clouds of war are getting darker and thicker.
Israel is currently not at war with anyone over in the West Bank, which is still nominally under the control of Fatah. However, Israeli forces are fairly concentrated there and only an invasion by Jordan would really ignite a conflict there and Jordan’s government is still pro-West (and therefore willing to ignore Israel at the moment).
Israel is also technically not a war with Syria yet. However, as Hezbollah receives the majority of its support from Syria (with weapons and support via Iran) it is probably only a matter of time before Syria feels compelled to declare war as well. That will be when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Unlike the terrorist organizations, Syria has a conventional army and air force. They also may have a large supply of chemical weapons, whether developed on their own or from Iraq, which could be loaded onto scud missiles (of which Syria has a lot).
Syria may bide her time a little bit to see how the incursion into Lebanon goes. Their first desire is to reclaim Lebanon as a territory, which they lost last year in the Cedar Revolution. Anything that allows them to reestablish themselves as a regional power will take priority first. I still believe that Syria believes they must act in a complete surprise attack with overwhelming firepower to even have a prayer of defeating Israel. I also believe that such an attack would fail and if Syria chose to use chemical weapons, Israel would respond by turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.
The storm clouds of war are getting darker and thicker.
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