This is interesting and brings back so many memories.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Friday, January 15, 2016
Divisional Round Guesses (2016 Edition)
I so wanted to get the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game wrong and I almost did. But I can't control it if a team decides to implode. Likewise with Minnesota. How do you shank a 27-yard kick? But that makes me 4 for 4 so far in picks.
Anyway, here's the slate for this weekend:
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #2 New England Patriots
It's almost unfortunate that the NFL is putting what will probably be the best game on first. Every logical mind says that you just don't bet against the Patriots in New England, no matter how hot the other team is. But, there is a chance. Tom Brady is about the only healthy person on that team and it shows in that the Patriots have lost four of their last six games. Some of the key players will be coming back from their injuries for this game and certainly the bye week helped with that. But Kansas City is on a roll and New England does not have that good of a defense. If Brady can get his players going, they can win a shootout game. Likewise, if Jeremy Maclin re-injures himself in any way, Kansas City will lose a lot in the passing game and could become one dimensional. But with the deck stacked as it is, I'm inclined to think that the Chiefs will maintain their momentum, albeit in a close game.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #2 Arizona Cardinals
Washington failed to do what must happen to beat Green Bay: get after Aaron Rogers. I don't see Arizona having that problem. Arizona was laughably bad in their final game against Seattle, but there may have been players pulled in that game. Or the players realized that it didn't matter since Carolina was winning their game. I don't expect Arizona to be distracted in this game. Green Bay is a walking wounded team and they are going to be missing even more players when they square off Saturday night. There is always a chance that the Green Bay offensive line manages to get Rogers some protection, but I doubt it. I think a high sack count and a lopsided night for Arizona is in the offering.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Game 3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #1 Carolina Panthers
I think if this were any other team than Seattle, Carolina could be caught napping, looking ahead to the NFC Championship. But Carolina hates Seattle. They were furious at being knocked out of the playoffs by the Seahawks last year and their intensity when they played Seattle earlier this season showed. The Seahawks looked a bit more human and should have lost to Minnesota. But they'll be playing in warmer weather and with another playoff victory under their belt. Still, Carolina was able to beat Seattle in Seattle. Now Carolina will be on their own turf and well rested. Seattle may hang in for a bit, but I expect Carolina will bring down the hammer as the game progresses.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Game 4: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 Denver Broncos
This should be the most lopsided game of all. Ben Roethlesburger is injured and if he plays, may not be able to throw the ball further than ten yards. DeAngelo Williams is still listed as day-to-day and may not be available. Antonio Brown has been officially ruled out for the game. So you have a potential of a back up QB, a back up RB, and no #1 WR going up against the #1 defense in the NFL. The only way Pittsburgh stays in this game is if Peyton Manning throws multiple interceptions that are returned for TDs and I doubt the coaching staff is going to let him. Denver will focus on the run and Manning will be kept to short passes, with an occasional deep ball to keep the Pittsburgh defense from cheating up too far. If he throws a pick on a deep route, it'll function more like a punt with less potential of being run back. I also expect Manning to be on a short leash with Oswiller being ready to go if Manning starts throwing picks. Again, like the Cincinnati game, I can't see Pittsburgh winning without Denver actively working to lose the game.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Anyway, here's the slate for this weekend:
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #2 New England Patriots
It's almost unfortunate that the NFL is putting what will probably be the best game on first. Every logical mind says that you just don't bet against the Patriots in New England, no matter how hot the other team is. But, there is a chance. Tom Brady is about the only healthy person on that team and it shows in that the Patriots have lost four of their last six games. Some of the key players will be coming back from their injuries for this game and certainly the bye week helped with that. But Kansas City is on a roll and New England does not have that good of a defense. If Brady can get his players going, they can win a shootout game. Likewise, if Jeremy Maclin re-injures himself in any way, Kansas City will lose a lot in the passing game and could become one dimensional. But with the deck stacked as it is, I'm inclined to think that the Chiefs will maintain their momentum, albeit in a close game.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #5 Green Bay Packers at #2 Arizona Cardinals
Washington failed to do what must happen to beat Green Bay: get after Aaron Rogers. I don't see Arizona having that problem. Arizona was laughably bad in their final game against Seattle, but there may have been players pulled in that game. Or the players realized that it didn't matter since Carolina was winning their game. I don't expect Arizona to be distracted in this game. Green Bay is a walking wounded team and they are going to be missing even more players when they square off Saturday night. There is always a chance that the Green Bay offensive line manages to get Rogers some protection, but I doubt it. I think a high sack count and a lopsided night for Arizona is in the offering.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Game 3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #1 Carolina Panthers
I think if this were any other team than Seattle, Carolina could be caught napping, looking ahead to the NFC Championship. But Carolina hates Seattle. They were furious at being knocked out of the playoffs by the Seahawks last year and their intensity when they played Seattle earlier this season showed. The Seahawks looked a bit more human and should have lost to Minnesota. But they'll be playing in warmer weather and with another playoff victory under their belt. Still, Carolina was able to beat Seattle in Seattle. Now Carolina will be on their own turf and well rested. Seattle may hang in for a bit, but I expect Carolina will bring down the hammer as the game progresses.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Game 4: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 Denver Broncos
This should be the most lopsided game of all. Ben Roethlesburger is injured and if he plays, may not be able to throw the ball further than ten yards. DeAngelo Williams is still listed as day-to-day and may not be available. Antonio Brown has been officially ruled out for the game. So you have a potential of a back up QB, a back up RB, and no #1 WR going up against the #1 defense in the NFL. The only way Pittsburgh stays in this game is if Peyton Manning throws multiple interceptions that are returned for TDs and I doubt the coaching staff is going to let him. Denver will focus on the run and Manning will be kept to short passes, with an occasional deep ball to keep the Pittsburgh defense from cheating up too far. If he throws a pick on a deep route, it'll function more like a punt with less potential of being run back. I also expect Manning to be on a short leash with Oswiller being ready to go if Manning starts throwing picks. Again, like the Cincinnati game, I can't see Pittsburgh winning without Denver actively working to lose the game.
Pick: Denver Broncos
Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Wild Card Round Guesses (2016 Edition)
There were a couple of close calls and a few odd turnouts but the field is set for the playoffs so it's time for me to make all my very wrong guesses.
Byes:
AFC: #1 Denver Broncos, #2 New England Patriots
NFC: #1 Carolina Panthers, #2 Arizona Cardinals
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Houston Texans
The Chiefs have to be annoyed right now. Both the Bengals and the Chargers came rather close to knocking off the Broncos in the last two weeks of the regular season, which would have given the Chiefs the division title and a home game. A bye was out of reach, but it would have been nice to play at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, they are riding a hot streak right now. Houston hit their apex right after the bye when they beat the Bengals on Monday night and then went on a bit of a hot streak. Still, they are not the pushover team many expected the AFC South champion to be. But it would be foolish to go against the Chiefs right now. This is also the Chiefs' first opportunity to finally get rid of the bad taste of the loss to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs two years ago, when they allowed Indy to come back from a 28-point deficit.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers did what they had to do in beating Cleveland and the NY Jets obliged by laying down against Buffalo. The Bengals meanwhile looked okay in beating the Ravens but still needed Denver to go down. Andy Dalton got his cast off this week but no announcement has been made about whether he will be available to play. Likewise, Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams is listed as day to day. Neither team is likely to be playing at full strength and given both coach's tendency to make odd calls in the situation, this game will likely come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. In this case, since it is likely that McCarron will be starting, I'm inclined to give the veteran Ben Rothlesburger the edge. Yes, he makes poor decisions and is also banged up, but the Steelers have proven themselves in pressure situations in the recent past with a lineup similar to this one. The Bengals have the weight of four previous one and dones on them and I will only believe it when I see it.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game #3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #3 Minnesota Vikings
There are two questions in this game: Will Adrian Peterson be able to run on Seattle and will the Minnesota defense be able to contain the Seattle offense? When they last met, Seattle blew the doors off Minnesota in Minnesota and the answer to both questions was no. If Seattle can repeat that strategy, they should win easily. Minnesota will adjust but if AP in contained, I don't see Teddy Bridgewater as being good enough to keep the offense on the field and prevent the defense from getting worn out. I think this game will be closer, but Seattle has been on a hot streak aside from the speed bump against the Rams. I won't pick against them just yet.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Game #4: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
Like the AFC South, Washington has emerged as a bit better than the pushover we expected the NFC East winner to be. Likewise, Green Bay can't seem to get their act together for any stretch of games. They can beat bad teams, but they haven't had a good win since they beat the Vikings in Minnesota before Thanksgiving. However, Washington kept pulling out squeekers against sub-500 teams. They won by ten against the Bills but otherwise haven't faced a good team since they got destroyed by Carolina also right before Thanksgiving. The home field will help but the bright lights are going to expose nerves. Rodgers and company has been in this situation before and that might be enough to overcome the deficiencies that have come up with all the injuries. Washington can win this game and many people will probably pick them to do so, but like with Pittsburgh, I'm going with experience in the first round.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Byes:
AFC: #1 Denver Broncos, #2 New England Patriots
NFC: #1 Carolina Panthers, #2 Arizona Cardinals
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Houston Texans
The Chiefs have to be annoyed right now. Both the Bengals and the Chargers came rather close to knocking off the Broncos in the last two weeks of the regular season, which would have given the Chiefs the division title and a home game. A bye was out of reach, but it would have been nice to play at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, they are riding a hot streak right now. Houston hit their apex right after the bye when they beat the Bengals on Monday night and then went on a bit of a hot streak. Still, they are not the pushover team many expected the AFC South champion to be. But it would be foolish to go against the Chiefs right now. This is also the Chiefs' first opportunity to finally get rid of the bad taste of the loss to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs two years ago, when they allowed Indy to come back from a 28-point deficit.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers did what they had to do in beating Cleveland and the NY Jets obliged by laying down against Buffalo. The Bengals meanwhile looked okay in beating the Ravens but still needed Denver to go down. Andy Dalton got his cast off this week but no announcement has been made about whether he will be available to play. Likewise, Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams is listed as day to day. Neither team is likely to be playing at full strength and given both coach's tendency to make odd calls in the situation, this game will likely come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. In this case, since it is likely that McCarron will be starting, I'm inclined to give the veteran Ben Rothlesburger the edge. Yes, he makes poor decisions and is also banged up, but the Steelers have proven themselves in pressure situations in the recent past with a lineup similar to this one. The Bengals have the weight of four previous one and dones on them and I will only believe it when I see it.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game #3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #3 Minnesota Vikings
There are two questions in this game: Will Adrian Peterson be able to run on Seattle and will the Minnesota defense be able to contain the Seattle offense? When they last met, Seattle blew the doors off Minnesota in Minnesota and the answer to both questions was no. If Seattle can repeat that strategy, they should win easily. Minnesota will adjust but if AP in contained, I don't see Teddy Bridgewater as being good enough to keep the offense on the field and prevent the defense from getting worn out. I think this game will be closer, but Seattle has been on a hot streak aside from the speed bump against the Rams. I won't pick against them just yet.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Game #4: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
Like the AFC South, Washington has emerged as a bit better than the pushover we expected the NFC East winner to be. Likewise, Green Bay can't seem to get their act together for any stretch of games. They can beat bad teams, but they haven't had a good win since they beat the Vikings in Minnesota before Thanksgiving. However, Washington kept pulling out squeekers against sub-500 teams. They won by ten against the Bills but otherwise haven't faced a good team since they got destroyed by Carolina also right before Thanksgiving. The home field will help but the bright lights are going to expose nerves. Rodgers and company has been in this situation before and that might be enough to overcome the deficiencies that have come up with all the injuries. Washington can win this game and many people will probably pick them to do so, but like with Pittsburgh, I'm going with experience in the first round.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
