Very funny:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Tuesday, April 18, 2017
GA-6 Special
Today is election day for the sixth district of Georgia. The previous congressman, Tom Price, resigned to become the HHS Secretary.
Rather than have primaries, the election is open with any and all folks allowed to participate. If one candidate receives 50% of the vote, they win outright. Otherwise the top two vote getters will face off on June 20. As of right now there are five Democrats, eleven Republicans and two independents declared and on the ballot.
However, national Democrats have all consolidated behind one candidate, Jon Ossoff. With all the other Democrats essentially folding, he is essentially guaranteed first place in the election. What national Democrats are really hoping for is that they will gin up turnout so much that he will manage to get 50% of the vote and kill the whole thing right then and there. That is unlikely but possible.
On the Republican side, there hasn't been a consolidation but most of the attention seems to be focusing on two candidates, Bob Gray and Karen Handel. They are your likely frontrunners but since the Republican field is so split, you're looking at the likelihood that the winner is going to be the one that cracks 15% of the vote.
Do Democrats have a chance in this race? Yes, but it's going to take a measure of luck, major Democratic turnout and a good dose of non-Democratic voter apathy. The best scenario for them is to pull in a huge volume of Democrats and sway the non-Republican voters, thus pulling Ossoff across the 50%+1 threshold. However, as this is R +8 district, that hill seems like it's just a bit too steep.
After that, Ossoff will face off against like Gray or Handel and it will turn into a more conventional race. It will likely become even more of a referendum on the policies of Mr. Trump than it is now with Ossoff attacking the Republican likely to have to defend them. The danger for the Democrats, I think, is even if feeling against Mr. Trump is running high (not a guarantee) they may not be able to sustain the high volume of energy required to swing this race in a mono-y-mono situation. Democrats are going balls to the wall to try and take this thing now. If they fall short, the burnout potential is high, especially if people are allowed to lapse back into normal voting patterns. I think it highly unlikely that the Republican will win by eight points, but reflex muscle alone could be enough to win by two or three unless there is sustained outrage.
So, the big drama for tonight is who will win out among the Republicans and whether Ossoff gets over 50%. If he does not, expect a certain degree of fizzle barring something huge that galvanizes the Democrats for another sustained push.
*UPDATE*
As expected, Ossoff failed to log more than 50%. He did get a huge sure at the beginning of the night as the early vote, especially from Atlanta came in. But his numbers went in steady decline for the rest of the night as the day-of voting and more conservative areas rolled in. There was a bit of extra drama as the count got stuck at 54% of precincts reporting for a long time. This apparently was due to a data glitch at one of the counting stations in Fulton County. Once fixed, the count surged instantly to 84% of precincts counted and Ossoff dropped below the 50% line. It appears that he is going to finish right around 48%.
On the other side of the rice, Karen Handel smoked her competitors, finishing with nearly 20% of the vote. Her closest competitor, Bob Gray, finished with just under 11% of the vote. Given the make-up of the district, Handel will be the prohibitive favorite. This is probably even more true given that Handel favored Evan McMullen in the Presidential race so the novelty of making this an anti-Trump campaign will be diminished somewhat. That's also means that much of the out-of-state money that has come in to support Ossoff will start to dry up.
The final vote is June 20 but don't expect it to get the kind of attention that the first round did. A head-to-head race favors the Republican and without the potential for a Trump rebuke, much of the steam driving the Democratic side will likely dissipate.
Rather than have primaries, the election is open with any and all folks allowed to participate. If one candidate receives 50% of the vote, they win outright. Otherwise the top two vote getters will face off on June 20. As of right now there are five Democrats, eleven Republicans and two independents declared and on the ballot.
However, national Democrats have all consolidated behind one candidate, Jon Ossoff. With all the other Democrats essentially folding, he is essentially guaranteed first place in the election. What national Democrats are really hoping for is that they will gin up turnout so much that he will manage to get 50% of the vote and kill the whole thing right then and there. That is unlikely but possible.
On the Republican side, there hasn't been a consolidation but most of the attention seems to be focusing on two candidates, Bob Gray and Karen Handel. They are your likely frontrunners but since the Republican field is so split, you're looking at the likelihood that the winner is going to be the one that cracks 15% of the vote.
Do Democrats have a chance in this race? Yes, but it's going to take a measure of luck, major Democratic turnout and a good dose of non-Democratic voter apathy. The best scenario for them is to pull in a huge volume of Democrats and sway the non-Republican voters, thus pulling Ossoff across the 50%+1 threshold. However, as this is R +8 district, that hill seems like it's just a bit too steep.
After that, Ossoff will face off against like Gray or Handel and it will turn into a more conventional race. It will likely become even more of a referendum on the policies of Mr. Trump than it is now with Ossoff attacking the Republican likely to have to defend them. The danger for the Democrats, I think, is even if feeling against Mr. Trump is running high (not a guarantee) they may not be able to sustain the high volume of energy required to swing this race in a mono-y-mono situation. Democrats are going balls to the wall to try and take this thing now. If they fall short, the burnout potential is high, especially if people are allowed to lapse back into normal voting patterns. I think it highly unlikely that the Republican will win by eight points, but reflex muscle alone could be enough to win by two or three unless there is sustained outrage.
So, the big drama for tonight is who will win out among the Republicans and whether Ossoff gets over 50%. If he does not, expect a certain degree of fizzle barring something huge that galvanizes the Democrats for another sustained push.
*UPDATE*
As expected, Ossoff failed to log more than 50%. He did get a huge sure at the beginning of the night as the early vote, especially from Atlanta came in. But his numbers went in steady decline for the rest of the night as the day-of voting and more conservative areas rolled in. There was a bit of extra drama as the count got stuck at 54% of precincts reporting for a long time. This apparently was due to a data glitch at one of the counting stations in Fulton County. Once fixed, the count surged instantly to 84% of precincts counted and Ossoff dropped below the 50% line. It appears that he is going to finish right around 48%.
On the other side of the rice, Karen Handel smoked her competitors, finishing with nearly 20% of the vote. Her closest competitor, Bob Gray, finished with just under 11% of the vote. Given the make-up of the district, Handel will be the prohibitive favorite. This is probably even more true given that Handel favored Evan McMullen in the Presidential race so the novelty of making this an anti-Trump campaign will be diminished somewhat. That's also means that much of the out-of-state money that has come in to support Ossoff will start to dry up.
The final vote is June 20 but don't expect it to get the kind of attention that the first round did. A head-to-head race favors the Republican and without the potential for a Trump rebuke, much of the steam driving the Democratic side will likely dissipate.
Friday, February 03, 2017
Clam Chowder Vs. Grits
Super Bowl LI will kick off around 6:30 between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. New England features Tom Brady going for his fifth ring and a bit of personal redemption against Roger Goodell, who tried to have Brady suspended for the whole season. On the other side, you have the Falcons in the Super Bowl for only the second time and looking for validation as they were somewhat dismissed for the majority of the season.
First, offense. I would give the Falcons the slight edge on offense because they have a number of good receivers and an incredibly pounding running game. But the Patriots are no slouches when it comes to comes to offense either. They may not have quite the names or the flare that the Falcons do, but they are a good solid offense and Tom Brady usually doesn't make mistakes with the ball. All things being equal though, the Patriots need to jump into the lead and keep it. If the Falcons have any kind of a lead going into the 4th quarter, they are going to pound the Pats defense with the double running game and that will bleed clock and almost certainly end in points of some kind.
Second defense. The Patriots have the advantage here. They are not a flashy defense but they are somewhat effective. What helps them most is that the Patriot offense stays on the field a lot. It's when Brady and Co. get caught in a few three-and-outs that the cracks that they do have get exposed. Their risk of exposure here is in how close the game gets. If the Pats jump out to a big lead and the Falcons play catch up, that takes away a major part of the Atlanta drain game and the Patriot defense will probably hold up. If the Falcons run the ball, they will eventually get tired and begin to get gashed to hell.
The Falcon's defense is going to have to rely on a bend and not break strategy I think. They're not good enough to play straight and I don't think they're going to get direct pressure on Tom Brady. They'll get to him on occasion, but he's going to be able to get the ball out most of the time. What I think they need is to focus on keeping the Patriots out of the end zone, forcing them to settle for field goals and maybe trying to squeeze something in and getting a lucky pick. They are also going to have to rely on their own offense to score a number of points (because they are going to give up some) and to bleed the clock so that they are not completely dead on their feet if Brady needs to make a long drive at the end. I favor the Patriots defense, but neither one is the type of scary defense that is going to rank with the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens.
Special teams are a bit of a wash as I think the Falcons have more talent there but the Patriots are more likely to be smarter there. There's always a chance for a Special teams play breaking through, but I wouldn't bet on it this time.
On the whole, I think this is going to be a story of two offenses slugging it out and that leads to a higher scoring game. Atlanta has a better offense but the Patriots are more experienced. I favor experience. Every Patriots Super Bowl has been close and I don't see any reason why this one would deviate from that. It may not come down to a game winning drive at the end, but I think there is a good chance that it will come down to who has the ball last and in that case, I trust Tom Brady more than I do Matt Ryan.
Pick: New England Patriots
Side note, my square in the office Super Bowl pool is NE - 1, Atl - 4. So here's hoping for lots of TDs and few field goals.
First, offense. I would give the Falcons the slight edge on offense because they have a number of good receivers and an incredibly pounding running game. But the Patriots are no slouches when it comes to comes to offense either. They may not have quite the names or the flare that the Falcons do, but they are a good solid offense and Tom Brady usually doesn't make mistakes with the ball. All things being equal though, the Patriots need to jump into the lead and keep it. If the Falcons have any kind of a lead going into the 4th quarter, they are going to pound the Pats defense with the double running game and that will bleed clock and almost certainly end in points of some kind.
Second defense. The Patriots have the advantage here. They are not a flashy defense but they are somewhat effective. What helps them most is that the Patriot offense stays on the field a lot. It's when Brady and Co. get caught in a few three-and-outs that the cracks that they do have get exposed. Their risk of exposure here is in how close the game gets. If the Pats jump out to a big lead and the Falcons play catch up, that takes away a major part of the Atlanta drain game and the Patriot defense will probably hold up. If the Falcons run the ball, they will eventually get tired and begin to get gashed to hell.
The Falcon's defense is going to have to rely on a bend and not break strategy I think. They're not good enough to play straight and I don't think they're going to get direct pressure on Tom Brady. They'll get to him on occasion, but he's going to be able to get the ball out most of the time. What I think they need is to focus on keeping the Patriots out of the end zone, forcing them to settle for field goals and maybe trying to squeeze something in and getting a lucky pick. They are also going to have to rely on their own offense to score a number of points (because they are going to give up some) and to bleed the clock so that they are not completely dead on their feet if Brady needs to make a long drive at the end. I favor the Patriots defense, but neither one is the type of scary defense that is going to rank with the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens.
Special teams are a bit of a wash as I think the Falcons have more talent there but the Patriots are more likely to be smarter there. There's always a chance for a Special teams play breaking through, but I wouldn't bet on it this time.
On the whole, I think this is going to be a story of two offenses slugging it out and that leads to a higher scoring game. Atlanta has a better offense but the Patriots are more experienced. I favor experience. Every Patriots Super Bowl has been close and I don't see any reason why this one would deviate from that. It may not come down to a game winning drive at the end, but I think there is a good chance that it will come down to who has the ball last and in that case, I trust Tom Brady more than I do Matt Ryan.
Pick: New England Patriots
Side note, my square in the office Super Bowl pool is NE - 1, Atl - 4. So here's hoping for lots of TDs and few field goals.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017
King of America Possibilities
One of the fun things about alternative history is going down little rabbit holes. A few years ago, there was an article that mentioned that at a point of crisis, there was a discussion about making George Washington king of America. Obviously he turned it down but a historian played the what if game and traced the likely regal descendant to a regular Joe now living in San Antonio.
What made this exercise even more fun was the fact that George Washington had no natural issue so the line was traced from the descent of his older brother. However, no attempt (that I know of) was made to trace the line of the other primary alternative. Martha Washington had a son by her previous marriage and following his death, George Washington adopted his son (Martha's grandson) and made him his heir: George Washington Parke Custis. So, let us play the what if game. What if instead of following the formal British model, a more Roman model was adopted where the monarch could designate his heir, even if they were not formal blood relations?
George Washington was sworn in as president in 1789. Assuming he was crowned as George I, he would have reigned until his death in 1799. He leaves control to his adopted son George Custis, who is crowned as George II.
George Custis lived until 1857 and had four children but only one survived to maturity: Mary. In 1831, Mary married Robert E. Lee, which would have given our theoretical George II license to royally adopt him and have him crowned as King Robert I upon George II's death.
Robert and Mary Lee had seven children and again we are left playing the what if game as their oldest and heir, George Washington Custis Lee, never married and never had issue. Robert E. Lee died in 1870 and presumably his son would have succeeded him, being crowned as George III. Assuming history played out as it did (which it actually would not have) George III would have died in 1913 and the crown would have then passed to the heirs of his younger brother William Lee, who died in 1891.
The crown would have passed on to his oldest son, Robert E. Lee III, who would have held it until 1922 when he died. I found no record of children from his marriage, so the crown would have then passed to his younger brother, George Lee, who would have carried it until his own death in 1948.
George Lee had two children, the oldest being Robert E. Lee IV, who would have taken over in 1948. Mr. Lee was still alive as of 2010, the last reference I found of him at age 85. His eldest son would then take over for him upon his death.
So in summary, the line of kings would have progressed as follows:
George I (1789-1799)
George II (1799-1857)
Robert I (1857-1870)
George III (1870-1913)
Robert II (1913-1922)
George IV (1922-1948)
Robert III (1948-
What made this exercise even more fun was the fact that George Washington had no natural issue so the line was traced from the descent of his older brother. However, no attempt (that I know of) was made to trace the line of the other primary alternative. Martha Washington had a son by her previous marriage and following his death, George Washington adopted his son (Martha's grandson) and made him his heir: George Washington Parke Custis. So, let us play the what if game. What if instead of following the formal British model, a more Roman model was adopted where the monarch could designate his heir, even if they were not formal blood relations?
George Washington was sworn in as president in 1789. Assuming he was crowned as George I, he would have reigned until his death in 1799. He leaves control to his adopted son George Custis, who is crowned as George II.
George Custis lived until 1857 and had four children but only one survived to maturity: Mary. In 1831, Mary married Robert E. Lee, which would have given our theoretical George II license to royally adopt him and have him crowned as King Robert I upon George II's death.
Robert and Mary Lee had seven children and again we are left playing the what if game as their oldest and heir, George Washington Custis Lee, never married and never had issue. Robert E. Lee died in 1870 and presumably his son would have succeeded him, being crowned as George III. Assuming history played out as it did (which it actually would not have) George III would have died in 1913 and the crown would have then passed to the heirs of his younger brother William Lee, who died in 1891.
The crown would have passed on to his oldest son, Robert E. Lee III, who would have held it until 1922 when he died. I found no record of children from his marriage, so the crown would have then passed to his younger brother, George Lee, who would have carried it until his own death in 1948.
George Lee had two children, the oldest being Robert E. Lee IV, who would have taken over in 1948. Mr. Lee was still alive as of 2010, the last reference I found of him at age 85. His eldest son would then take over for him upon his death.
So in summary, the line of kings would have progressed as follows:
George I (1789-1799)
George II (1799-1857)
Robert I (1857-1870)
George III (1870-1913)
Robert II (1913-1922)
George IV (1922-1948)
Robert III (1948-
Monday, January 16, 2017
NFL Conference Championships 2017
I went 3 for 4 in the Divisional round and the Green Bay Packers pulled out everything they had to overcome the Cowboys. I am quite sure that if that game had gone to overtime, the Cowboys would have won but they pulled it out on some absolutely clutch plays at the end. Now we go on to the championships, which also means that it's about time for me to get sick as I have a nasty habit of getting felled by a nasty bug around this time of year.
Sunday, January 22, 3:00 - #4 Green Bay Packers at #2 Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta pulled out the stops and finally played defense for a bit. Seattle tried once again to rely on great plays and they did manage to get some but just not enough. Atlanta was never really challenged and their power in the running game and the skill of their receivers took it to Seattle and never really let up. Their offense is going to score points, especially against the depleted Green Bay defense, although it did come through at various points for them against Dallas.
The big question is how much is left in the tank for the Packers after that huge expenditure against Dallas. There is no question that this should be a barnburner with neither side being a particularly strong defense. The numbers say that the Packers have still lost too many weapons, although they keep filling in the gaps. What's more they didn't lose anyone of significance during the Dallas game so that's a plus for them. Atlanta beat Green Bay earlier in the season on a last minute drive by the Falcons so I see no reason why this won't come down to who has the ball last once more. My head says to go with the Falcons but Green Bay keeps surprising me. I'm going to go with the hot team and the potentially better Super Bowl match up.
Pick: Green Bay
Sunday, January 22, 6:45 - #3 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 New England Patriots - My son posed this match up of two teams that I don't care for and I told him that I will take any team over the Steelers as tired as I am of the Patriots. Of course, that is feeling rather than an actual assessment of the teams. But, I'm not seeing much from either game that is deviating from this thought. Houston's defense gave Tom Brady some fits, but their offense was just terrible and never really poised for much of a threat unless their defense gave them great field position. Contrast this with the Steelers who drove on the Chiefs all night but couldn't put it away, settling for six field goals and nearly letting the Chiefs back into it, despite Kansas having almost no passing game at all.
Pittsburgh will hang in. Their defense is not as good as Houston's but it is tough and they will get to Tom Brady now and again. Likewise, I think the Steelers coach is going to lay into his team enough and the New England defense is not good enough that they will score a touchdown or two. But unless the Steelers dip into the dirty bag (a tactic not unknown to them) and rip one of Tom Brady's legs off, I see the Patriots as too big and too driven a team for the patchwork Steelers to take down. It might be close going into the fourth quarter, but I don't see Pittsburgh making it back to the big show this year.
Pick: New England
If this holds, we'll get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI with the shoe potentially being on the other foot this time around. But we'll see.
Sunday, January 22, 3:00 - #4 Green Bay Packers at #2 Atlanta Falcons - Atlanta pulled out the stops and finally played defense for a bit. Seattle tried once again to rely on great plays and they did manage to get some but just not enough. Atlanta was never really challenged and their power in the running game and the skill of their receivers took it to Seattle and never really let up. Their offense is going to score points, especially against the depleted Green Bay defense, although it did come through at various points for them against Dallas.
The big question is how much is left in the tank for the Packers after that huge expenditure against Dallas. There is no question that this should be a barnburner with neither side being a particularly strong defense. The numbers say that the Packers have still lost too many weapons, although they keep filling in the gaps. What's more they didn't lose anyone of significance during the Dallas game so that's a plus for them. Atlanta beat Green Bay earlier in the season on a last minute drive by the Falcons so I see no reason why this won't come down to who has the ball last once more. My head says to go with the Falcons but Green Bay keeps surprising me. I'm going to go with the hot team and the potentially better Super Bowl match up.
Pick: Green Bay
Sunday, January 22, 6:45 - #3 Pittsburgh Steelers at #1 New England Patriots - My son posed this match up of two teams that I don't care for and I told him that I will take any team over the Steelers as tired as I am of the Patriots. Of course, that is feeling rather than an actual assessment of the teams. But, I'm not seeing much from either game that is deviating from this thought. Houston's defense gave Tom Brady some fits, but their offense was just terrible and never really poised for much of a threat unless their defense gave them great field position. Contrast this with the Steelers who drove on the Chiefs all night but couldn't put it away, settling for six field goals and nearly letting the Chiefs back into it, despite Kansas having almost no passing game at all.
Pittsburgh will hang in. Their defense is not as good as Houston's but it is tough and they will get to Tom Brady now and again. Likewise, I think the Steelers coach is going to lay into his team enough and the New England defense is not good enough that they will score a touchdown or two. But unless the Steelers dip into the dirty bag (a tactic not unknown to them) and rip one of Tom Brady's legs off, I see the Patriots as too big and too driven a team for the patchwork Steelers to take down. It might be close going into the fourth quarter, but I don't see Pittsburgh making it back to the big show this year.
Pick: New England
If this holds, we'll get a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI with the shoe potentially being on the other foot this time around. But we'll see.
Monday, January 09, 2017
NFL Divisional Round 2017
I went 2-2 in the first round, although had I known that Oakland was going to be playing a third string QB, I would have probably opted for Houston, even though their offense is not great. Green Bay, on the other hand, just plain whooped the Giants much to my surprise.
So we move on to the Divisional Round where the #1 and #2 seeds have had a week off to prepare.
Saturday, January 14, 4:30 - #3 Seattle at #2 Atlanta - Seattle did well in their first game, dispatching the Lions without much fuss. Seattle and Atlanta are somewhat similar teams in the fact that they are so unpredictable. Seattle usually has a good defense and it's just a question of whether their offense will be able to do anything. Atlanta meanwhile has a pretty good offense and a middling at best defense. So they need to keep pace with their opponents to stay in. On the few times that they do make some stands on defense, they win handily.
I think Seattle has a chance, but they are such a different team away from home. Playing in a dome will help and I think their defense will keep the Falcons on the wrong foot, perhaps even giving them a turnover or two. I even think the lack of good defense by Atlanta will allow Seattle to score aplenty. But you can't live on impossible catches and I think Atlanta has too many weapons in the long term. I'm guessing a closer game than expected, but I'd still favor the home team.
Pick: Atlanta
Saturday, January 14, 8:15 - #4 Houston at #1 New England - Houston actually played New England earlier in the season and got destroyed. I'd like to think that Houston has a bit more pride than that and will hang better this time around, but I don't see much hope for them. Houston's offense is middling and while New England does not have a great defense, it will stymie the Texans. Houston does have the #1 offense, but unlike previous years, New England's offense is not suffering from a bunch of injuries. Brady will have a bevy of weapons to use and while they may have to settle for field goals a few times, I don't see them making the critical mistakes that Houston desperately needs to stay in this. I also see Tom Brady on a mission to personally spit in Roger Goodell's face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy and this is the first step in that quest.
Pick: New England
Sunday, January 15, 4:30 - #4 Green Bay at #1 Dallas - I would love to see Green Bay beat Dallas. They've been on the edge of elimination for nearly two months now and have more walking wounded than any team in the playoffs while Dallas is at nearly 100% and been more or less handed a spot in the Super Bowl since October. But there is a reason for that. Dallas is good. Their QB and RB get most of the ink, but the Dallas offensive line is second to none in the NFL and that is huge. Their defense isn't bad either, although it's not the killer that one would expect. I expect Green Bay to put up a fight, but I think fatigue and injuries are just going to doom the Packers in the end.
Pick: Dallas
Sunday, January 15, 8:00 - #3 Pittsburgh at #2 Kansas City - Again, I want the other team to win so bad that I would love to pick against Pittsburgh just out of spite. But the Steelers did to Miami exactly what I expected and Kansas City is built in many of the same ways. They have a better defense than Miami and they will have a nice home field advantage in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs are heavily dependent on a strong running game and the Steelers do a pretty good job of containing it. The Chiefs have the weapons to beat the Steelers through the air, but I'm skeptical of them being able to use them enough. I'd bet on a grind fest here and grinds work well for teams used to playing bloodied.
Pick: Pittsburgh
So we move on to the Divisional Round where the #1 and #2 seeds have had a week off to prepare.
Saturday, January 14, 4:30 - #3 Seattle at #2 Atlanta - Seattle did well in their first game, dispatching the Lions without much fuss. Seattle and Atlanta are somewhat similar teams in the fact that they are so unpredictable. Seattle usually has a good defense and it's just a question of whether their offense will be able to do anything. Atlanta meanwhile has a pretty good offense and a middling at best defense. So they need to keep pace with their opponents to stay in. On the few times that they do make some stands on defense, they win handily.
I think Seattle has a chance, but they are such a different team away from home. Playing in a dome will help and I think their defense will keep the Falcons on the wrong foot, perhaps even giving them a turnover or two. I even think the lack of good defense by Atlanta will allow Seattle to score aplenty. But you can't live on impossible catches and I think Atlanta has too many weapons in the long term. I'm guessing a closer game than expected, but I'd still favor the home team.
Pick: Atlanta
Saturday, January 14, 8:15 - #4 Houston at #1 New England - Houston actually played New England earlier in the season and got destroyed. I'd like to think that Houston has a bit more pride than that and will hang better this time around, but I don't see much hope for them. Houston's offense is middling and while New England does not have a great defense, it will stymie the Texans. Houston does have the #1 offense, but unlike previous years, New England's offense is not suffering from a bunch of injuries. Brady will have a bevy of weapons to use and while they may have to settle for field goals a few times, I don't see them making the critical mistakes that Houston desperately needs to stay in this. I also see Tom Brady on a mission to personally spit in Roger Goodell's face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy and this is the first step in that quest.
Pick: New England
Sunday, January 15, 4:30 - #4 Green Bay at #1 Dallas - I would love to see Green Bay beat Dallas. They've been on the edge of elimination for nearly two months now and have more walking wounded than any team in the playoffs while Dallas is at nearly 100% and been more or less handed a spot in the Super Bowl since October. But there is a reason for that. Dallas is good. Their QB and RB get most of the ink, but the Dallas offensive line is second to none in the NFL and that is huge. Their defense isn't bad either, although it's not the killer that one would expect. I expect Green Bay to put up a fight, but I think fatigue and injuries are just going to doom the Packers in the end.
Pick: Dallas
Sunday, January 15, 8:00 - #3 Pittsburgh at #2 Kansas City - Again, I want the other team to win so bad that I would love to pick against Pittsburgh just out of spite. But the Steelers did to Miami exactly what I expected and Kansas City is built in many of the same ways. They have a better defense than Miami and they will have a nice home field advantage in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs are heavily dependent on a strong running game and the Steelers do a pretty good job of containing it. The Chiefs have the weapons to beat the Steelers through the air, but I'm skeptical of them being able to use them enough. I'd bet on a grind fest here and grinds work well for teams used to playing bloodied.
Pick: Pittsburgh
Monday, January 02, 2017
NFL Wild Card Round - 2017
We now begin the inevitable slog towards the Super Bowl. Around Week Six or Seven I was girding myself up for the strong possibility of a New England vs. Dallas match up. That is still the most likely outcome but I'm seeing a potential glimmer of Brady vs. Eli III. Anything other than these two would be a real curve ball for me. But before we can get there, let's play with this weekend's match ups.
Saturday, January 7, 4:30 - #5 Oakland Raiders at #4 Houston Texans - This will make the second year in a row where the AFC South winner is a just happy to be here contender. Obviously the Texans won't admit that, but they are not a particularly good team and I can't see them giving Oakland too hard a time. That's actually a shame as Oakland, while good, is a young and inexperienced team. They fell apart when they had a chance to take the division and a first round bye. Now they'll get a playoff win under their belt which will make them just that much tougher in the Divisional round.
Pick: Oakland
Saturday, January 7, 8:15 - #6 Detroit Lions at #3 Seattle Seahawks - I think the Lions are a decent team but they've been skirting the edge all year and they should consider themselves fortunate that they are still in the playoffs as a win by Washington would have given them the #6 seed. Still, Seattle has also been up and down this year. One week they look good enough to win the Super Bowl, the next they are getting thrashed by a sub-500 team. But, Seattle is one of the worst places to play as a visiting team and until I see the Seahawks fall apart, I'm not going to pick against them at home.
Pick: Seattle
Sunday, January 8, 1:00 - #6 Miami Dolphins at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers - For personal reasons, I want to pick Miami in the worst way. They are actually a pretty good team and won some rather key games late in the season. They have a good run game and a halfway decent defense. I would also point out that Pittsburgh is not quite as good as they usually are. Injuries have played a part, but there has been something missing as well. They have won but they seem like they are missing something that usually gives them their usual level of swagger. But, they are still the Steelers and I don't have so much faith in the Dolphins to think that they can march into Pittsburgh and run them over. I'm thinking the Fish will give them a good game, but I still have to hold my nose and pick the yellow and black.
Pick: Pittsburgh
Sunday, January 8, 4:30 - #5 New York Giants at #4 Green Bay Packers - Again, I'd like to believe that the Packers could draw strength from the earth of Green Bay and thwart the Eli Mannings who are probably one of the hottest teams at the moment. But if there is one team that is a definition of walking wounded, it is the Packers. They're running third stringers on defense and that's not going to cut it against Odell Beckham and the other weapons at Eli's disposal. I think the Packers will score as the Giant's defense is not as good as it has been and the Green Bay offense is finally humming. But I think the order is too tall and that the Giants will get one or two key stops and will slowly pull away.
Pick: New York
Saturday, January 7, 4:30 - #5 Oakland Raiders at #4 Houston Texans - This will make the second year in a row where the AFC South winner is a just happy to be here contender. Obviously the Texans won't admit that, but they are not a particularly good team and I can't see them giving Oakland too hard a time. That's actually a shame as Oakland, while good, is a young and inexperienced team. They fell apart when they had a chance to take the division and a first round bye. Now they'll get a playoff win under their belt which will make them just that much tougher in the Divisional round.
Pick: Oakland
Saturday, January 7, 8:15 - #6 Detroit Lions at #3 Seattle Seahawks - I think the Lions are a decent team but they've been skirting the edge all year and they should consider themselves fortunate that they are still in the playoffs as a win by Washington would have given them the #6 seed. Still, Seattle has also been up and down this year. One week they look good enough to win the Super Bowl, the next they are getting thrashed by a sub-500 team. But, Seattle is one of the worst places to play as a visiting team and until I see the Seahawks fall apart, I'm not going to pick against them at home.
Pick: Seattle
Sunday, January 8, 1:00 - #6 Miami Dolphins at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers - For personal reasons, I want to pick Miami in the worst way. They are actually a pretty good team and won some rather key games late in the season. They have a good run game and a halfway decent defense. I would also point out that Pittsburgh is not quite as good as they usually are. Injuries have played a part, but there has been something missing as well. They have won but they seem like they are missing something that usually gives them their usual level of swagger. But, they are still the Steelers and I don't have so much faith in the Dolphins to think that they can march into Pittsburgh and run them over. I'm thinking the Fish will give them a good game, but I still have to hold my nose and pick the yellow and black.
Pick: Pittsburgh
Sunday, January 8, 4:30 - #5 New York Giants at #4 Green Bay Packers - Again, I'd like to believe that the Packers could draw strength from the earth of Green Bay and thwart the Eli Mannings who are probably one of the hottest teams at the moment. But if there is one team that is a definition of walking wounded, it is the Packers. They're running third stringers on defense and that's not going to cut it against Odell Beckham and the other weapons at Eli's disposal. I think the Packers will score as the Giant's defense is not as good as it has been and the Green Bay offense is finally humming. But I think the order is too tall and that the Giants will get one or two key stops and will slowly pull away.
Pick: New York
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