The near death of Damar Hamlin cast a huge pall over the NFL on Monday. Thankfully, the news regarding his recovery continues to get better with doctors steadily reducing the oxygen they are putting in his system and reporting signs that suggest no significant neurological damage. This is obviously a huge relief to his family, friends and teammates and also potentially alleviates the cloud of doubt hanging over the Buffalo Bills, which would allow them to focus on continuing with the season and moving into the playoffs.
But, it is still up in the air as to how that game between Buffalo and Cincinnati will be treated. Probably the easiest and most rational scenario is to simply vacate the game and leave Buffalo and Cincinnati's records based on 16 games rather than 17 games. This would be the functional equivalent of the two teams tying the suspended game. However, other options are on the table. While not definitive, it appears that the Bengals are deferring completely to Buffalo about making up the game. Buffalo's say is limited by the NFL unless the players and management effectively strike to force their preferred outcome, but I don't think that's likely.
A very large amount is going to depend on how the Chiefs-Raiders game goes on Saturday. With the Bills-Bengals game unresolved, Kansas City has moved into the #1 seed. If they win, only a Buffalo win in a make-up game with the Bengals would dethrone them. If the Chiefs lose (a possibility given that it's a divisional match-up), they would fall down to the #3 seed with Buffalo and Cincinnati jumping ahead of them. Of course, Buffalo and Cincinnati would have to win their respective games against the Patriots and Ravens, but I'm taking that as a given.
Honestly, with the continued good news about Damar Hamlin, I expect the Bills to come out on fire with the Week 18 dedicated to him. I think the Bills pour all their emotions into that game and will tear the Patriots to pieces.
Not quite on the same level, but with a vacated game, the Ravens cannot catch the Bengals for the AFC North title. They would have to win and have the Bengals lose a make up game against the Bills. With all that up in the air, I think the Ravens will opt to rest as many of their players as possible, giving the Bengals a much better shot to win. The Bengals will also be playing with a lot of pent up emotion, which might give them an extra boost as well.
But, even if the Chiefs win on Saturday, I don't think the Bills and Bengals will make a point of trying to make up the game. What I could see is the Bills lobbying the NFL to put the AFC Championship at a neutral location rather than in Arrowhead. I don't know if that would work but it would make more sense than trying to squeeze an extra game in.
Rounding out the AFC, the Ravens loss to Pittsburgh allowed the Chargers to move up to the #5 seed and I expect them to stay there, leaving the Ravens at #6. Right now the #7 seed lies with the Patriots and they would get in if they win, but I'm expecting them to lose to Buffalo so that puts Miami back in the driver's seat. Miami closes out against the Jets and could be starting their #3 quarterback. The Jets don't have much of an offense but they do have a good defense and I could see the Jets knocking the Dolphins out. That then puts the Steelers in if they win against Cleveland, a scenario I could easily see.
So with that, I'm honestly expecting a scenario of the Chiefs getting the #1 seed, the Bills playing the Steelers in the 2-7 game, the Bengals playing the Ravens a third time in the 3-6 match and the Jaguars playing the Chargers in the 4-5 game. At this point I'm taking the Jaguars defeat of the Titans in Week 18 as a given.
On the NFC side, things are a little more clear. The Eagles are still in the driver's seat for the #1 seed. Jalen Hurts is coming back and they will play a Giants team that will likely be resting whomever they can in preparation for their Wild Card round game. Of course, the Eagles could still lose which opens the door for Dallas to win the East and potentially the #1 seed if the 49ers lay an egg against Arizona (highly unlikely, but possible). But I think an Eagles win is far more likely.
This would put the 49ers at the #2 seed and the Vikings at the #3 seed. The Buccaneers are locked in at the #4 seed regardless of how the rest of games go in Week 18. An Eagles win would also lock the Cowboys in to the #5 seed and a date with the Tom Bradys. Similar to the Buccaneers, the Giants are locked in to the #6 seed, regardless of how the rest of the games play out.
Which leaves the #7 seed. Seattle currently owns it but their fate is not in their own hands. Seattle only gets in if they win and the Packers lose. The Packers are in if they win, no matter what Seattle does. Meanwhile the Lions get it if they beat the Packers and Seattle loses. Seattle is playing the Rams in Los Angeles and it is just going to depend on which Seattle team shows up. The Rams defense has been playing well for the last few weeks and their offense is not terrible. If they get pressure on Geno Smith, I could easily see the Rams beating the Seahawks. I also think the Packers will win against the Lions just because the Lions needed the Packers to beat themselves the first time around to win while the Packers are on a bit of a hot streak.
So we would then be looking at the Eagles with the #1 seed, the 49ers playing the Packers in the 2-7 game, the Vikings playing the Giants in the 3-6 game and the Bucs playing the Cowboys in the 4-5.
Of course, all of this could go out the window as we saw on Monday so hopefully everyone plays well and stays as healthy as possible in the upcoming games.
