Friday, December 23, 2011

New Congressional Districts

So last week when I wasn't paying attention, Ohio agreed to the original Congressional District map proposed by Republicans with just a few minor tweaks. This keeps me in Chabot's district 1 come next election cycle. *Blech*



At least we are now going back to Super Tuesday (March 6) for the Presidential Primary vote. Maybe my vote will still count.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Jib Jab 2011 Recap

Not quite as good as past years, but still funny.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Tenth Doctor Theme

I am not a true Whovian in the classical sense. I have more of a general awareness and mild enjoyment, although that is tied predominantly to the classical Fourth Doctor episodes.

Still, I heartily enjoy the reissue of the Dr. Who theme done in 2005 for the revival of the series under the Tenth Doctor (David Tennant or Barty Crouch Jr. to Potterphiles).



You might also enjoy this evolution of the theme though the lifespan of the eleven doctors.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Fantasy Football What-ifs

I've been doing fantasy football (Potbellied Pigs) for three years now and this was my best season yet. I finished 2nd in my division at 8-6 and missed out on the playoffs literally by 2 points. The fellow who ended up getting the wild card berth (Flashes of Glory) had the same record as me and the first tiebreaker in our league is total points scored over the course of the season. He finished the season with 1433 and I finished with 1431. Even more galling is that if I had played Doug Baldwin of Seattle against the Rams instead of Johnny Knox of Chicago against the Broncos (week 14), I would have finished with more points and made the playoffs.

As the wild card winner, I would have played the number one seed (Bungles4Life). As it turns out, he ended up having a horrible fantasy weekend and I would have won (although not by much as my team also did pretty badly). The other match up is not set as one person (Bus Drivers) has two players going tonight. Those two will almost certainly put him over the top and making our fantasy football final Flashes of Glory vs. Bus Drivers.

I hope Flashes wins but I shall remain rueful about what might have happened had I played one person differently.

Dictator Death March

Word leaked out late last night that Kim Jong-in of North Korea died of "fatigue" yesterday. Kim had been sickly for the past couple of years so his death is not a huge surprise.

What is a bit odd is how many of the world strongmen have gone down or are preparing to go down. This past year we've lost Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen. In the very near future Hugo Chavez of Venezuela will probably die of cancer and Bashar al-Assad of Syria will decide whether to flee or commit self-immolation with his entire nation as the pyre. This also does not take into account the likelihood that Father Time will remove both the Castro boys of Cuba and Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe in the near future.

Of course, new dictators will rise up to take the place of the old, but it still feels just a little odd that so many of the well-known scoundrels of history are going down in such a short time.

Hopefully things go well in North Korea. There has been a fear that Kim Jong-il's designated successor, Kim Jong-un, will not be strong enough to reign in his generals and that he will be deposed. If that happens, open warfare may break out as the generals jockey for position and that in turn could spill out into South Korea. That might potentially draw in the US and the Chinese as well. We shall see and hope that things don't get out of hand too quickly.

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Driving Distance Puzzler

This is another puzzler stolen from Car Talk (which I've been listening to on Podcast now):

A man and his wife decided to go to a bed and breakfast over the weekend. They got into the car and the wife drove for 40 miles. They then pulled over at a rest stop and the husband drove for the rest of the way to the B&B. On the drive back home, the husband drove for 50 miles and then asked his wife to drive the rest of the way home.

The question is, how many more miles did the husband drive than the wife over the course of the whole trip? (You do not need to know the total distance driven to solve this problem)

(highlight to see answer below):

A: 20 miles.

Set the total trip distance to any number and solve. The difference will always be 20 miles. Thus, if d=50, then the husband drove 60 miles while the wife drove 40 miles. If d=100, then the husband drove 110 miles while the wife drove 90 miles.

TV Political Affiliation

According to Entertainment Weekly, I have a weird straddling of viewing habits between Liberal and Conservative.

I enjoy the "liberal comedies" of Parks and Recreation, Glee, and Modern Family (although to be fair, Glee's writing is getting annoying. I just like the songs). Yet I also enjoy the "conservative work shows" of Mythbusters and Deadliest Catch.

I was disappointed to see that no food competition shows (Chopped, Iron Chef) were ranked as either Republican or Democrat. I guess those are equally enjoyed.

Friday, December 02, 2011

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

If you want to know why the unemployment rate is one of the worst indicators of the health of the economy, here is proof.

The government just released the numbers for November and a total of 120,000 jobs were created. That sounds good except that just to keep pace with population growth our economy needs to create 90,000 jobs a month.

Despite this tepid number, the unemployment rate dropped 0.4 to 8.6%. To accomplish this little trick, the government reduced the labor participation rate by 0.2 from 64.2% to 64.0% This effectively means that they said that .2% of the population was no longer looking for work (or put on permanent unemployment). That's a magical reduction of nearly 300,000 people from the workforce in one month.

Of course, all people will hear is that unemployment is now in the 8% range and that we've turned the economic corner. B******. Just five years ago (Dec. 2006), the labor participation rate was 66.4. In five years that a loss of over 3.3 million jobs before you even get to the change in unemployment rate.

Something stinks over the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Or maybe they're just living up to the old adage about statistics.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

BCS Mess

Having looked at the pro playoffs last time, let's look at the BCS Bowl bids.

Assuming LSU beats Georgia in the SEC Championship game, the National Title game will be a rematch of LSU and Alabama (in the Superdome no less). Not great, but no one else has established themselves to supplant Alabama. Oklahoma St. came close and if they beat Oklahoma at Oklahoma thus winning the Big 12 Championship, there is an outside chance they could get voted in over Alabama. But I'm not confident that Oklahoma St. will beat Oklahoma so it may be moot.

The Rose Bowl will be Big 10 vs. Pac 12 as normal. In the Big 10 we have a rematch of the great Wisconsin-Michigan St. game from earlier in the year. I would favor Wisconsin but they have shown a tendency to choke in big game situations. The Pac 12 championship game will be Oregon vs. UCLA. Oregon goes because they beat Stanford head-to-head and UCLA goes because USC is still banned from bowl games. I fully expect Oregon to slap UCLA silly.

The Big East was won by Louisville this year and they might get picked up by the Orange Bowl. The Orange Bowl ACC berth will go to the winner of Virginia Tech and Clemson. I would give a slight nod to Virginia Tech but this is a pretty even match-up.

As the Big 12 only has ten members now, the Big 12 championship game has been discontinued. But because of the way the season has played out, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma St. is a de-facto championship game. If Oklahoma St. wins, they win the conference outright. If Oklahoma wins they win the tiebreakers with Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. due to victories in head-to-head match-ups. Whomever wins, they get the automatic bid to the Fiesta Bowl.

That leaves the at-large bids. With Alabama presumably going to the National Championship game, the SEC is excluded from sending any more schools to the BCS bowls. Should Oklahoma St. somehow get in over Alabama, Alabama would take LSU's Sugar Bowl berth. If Georgia knocks off LSU, all hell will break loose as the computers could conceivably put Alabama and Stanford in the National Title game (neither school having won their conference).

But aside from the doomsday scenario, I suspect the at-large bids will go to Stanford, Houston (assuming they defeat Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA title game) and Boise St. Arkansas and USC would be more deserving but USC is under sanction and Arkansas is excluded due to Alabama getting in.

The Sugar Bowl would probably take Stanford to fill the LSU hole and may try to match them against Houston to get a local flavor (many New Orleans residents fled to Houston after Hurricane Katrina) as well as a game that could push 120 combined total points. The Fiesta Bowl would probably be quite happy with Boise St to face off against whichever Oklahoma team wins the Big 12. That would leave the Orange Bowl as ACC vs. Big East.

I'm not 100% sure about the selection order, but these would make the most sense to me as far as selections go. But we shall have to see how the various games go to see what truly happens. Certainly Georgia would love to throw everything into a phenomenal state of chaos by winning the SEC and knocking LSU from the Number 1 spot.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Early Playoff Speculation

Now that Week 12 is just about over, we can start to speculate about the playoffs.

Starting with the AFC, things are starting to look pretty solid on several fronts. New England will probably win the AFC East. Baltimore has the tiebreaker against Pittsburgh but they really need another game to make themselves comfortable as winners of the AFC North.

Houston has a two game lead over Tennessee for the AFC South and has won their first game against Tennessee. Houston has lost both their starting and backup quarterbacks so their two game lead over Tennessee is not solid. They play Tennessee in the last game of the regular season. It is not impossible that that could end up being a game for all the marbles. Houston could actually be a game behind Tennessee going into that game and if they win, the tie-breaker would go to Houston.

In the West, Oakland has a one game lead over Denver. Oakland and Denver split the season series so that race will remain tight. Looking ahead, Denver has a very real shot of going 3-2 at worst and may go for more. Oakland has a slightly tougher schedule with games against Green Bay and Detroit still on the horizon. This division also could come down to the wire.

Pittsburgh, as they are nipping on Baltimore's heels is looking strong for that first wild card spot. Should they overtake Baltimore in the division, Baltimore would probably supplant them at the #5 seed so there is little excitement there. Cincinnati currently has exclusive rights to the second wild card, but the NY Jets, Tennessee Titans, and Denver Broncos are all one game back. Cincinnati has the tiebreaker over Tennessee and a better conference record than the Jets. Denver has the tiebreaker over Cincinnati. If the Bengals could go 3-1 over their next four games (Pittsburgh, Houston, Arizona, St. Louis), they would be in good shape, even if Denver and the Jets stay on their current strong streaks. Still, it might be to the Bengals advantage to have Denver overtake Oakland for the AFC West crown as the Bengals would be better off matching conference records against Oakland than the guaranteed tiebreaker loss to Denver.

Seeding is up in the air. Houston currently has the #1 seed but that's not going to hold up over the next several weeks. Likely, it will be New England and the AFC North winner (Baltimore currently) that will get the first round byes. I think Houston will hold on to the #3 unless they completely free fall. This gives the #4 to Oakland/Denver. If Oakland held on to win the division and faced Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs, that would pose a very interesting match-up as it would call up the shades of when Carson Palmer tore his ACL in the 2005-6 playoffs against Pittsburgh.

On the NFC side, things are also a bit murky in the lower reaches. Green Bay is very close to wrapping up the NFC North crown and will probably wrap up the #1 seed by Week 15. San Francisco will win the NFC West next week if they beat St. Louis, regardless of what anyone else does. This puts them is a solid slot for the #2 seed.

New Orleans currently holds the NFC South lead and the #3 spot. Atlanta is right behind them though and could move into a tie for the lead if New Orleans loses to the NY Giants tonight. New Orleans won the first match-up with Atlanta and they face each other again in Week 16. New Orleans also has a better divisional record which gives them an additional inside track against Atlanta.

Should New Orleans fall, they will lose the #3 seed to Dallas who currently sits atop the NFC East. Of course, a New Orleans loss means that the NY Giants will vault into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-4. Dallas and New York have not played each other yet this year. Dallas has a better divisional record, but the contests of Weeks 14 and 17 will likely decide who wins that division.

Chicago, Detroit and Atlanta are all tied at 7-4 and looking for those two wild card spots. If New York wins tonight, that'll introduce a 4th team fighting for the two spots. Currently the Bears have the #5 seed by virtue of a better conference record and a head-to-head win against Atlanta. Atlanta beats out Detroit due to their head-to-head win against the Lions for the #6 spot. However, I would not put much stock in these standings. Detroit is a gritty team with at least three winnable games on their schedule (Minnesota, Oakland, San Diego). They also play Green Bay in the last game of the season and Green Bay may be resting people giving Detroit a real chance of getting 11 wins this season. Chicago has lost their starting quarterback but a softer schedule (Kansas City, Seattle, Minnesota) gives them a good shot at 10+ wins.

At least one team from the NFC North will make the playoffs and possibly two depending on how Atlanta plays out. The Giants and Cowboys could enter into the picture as well, but I think it is likely that they will beat each other up too much to sneak a wild card spot from a 10+ win Chicago, Detroit, or Atlanta.

Much will probably change in the next couple of weeks, but this is where we stand now.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Easter Island Excavations

I stumbled across this website earlier today. It documents the expeditions to explore and excavate the Moai statues on Easter Island.

One of the most fascinating things is that contrary to popular opinion, the heads on Easter Island are more than just heads. When excavated, the rest of the statue is revealed. Instead of just being an uncarved or wedge shaped piece of stone to anchor the heads, they are revealed to be fully carved statues with significant detail that has been hidden from the elements. The largest one so far discovered would have stood at over 38 ft in height. It's very cool stuff.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Weight Loss

I first entered our company weight loss competition on Sept. 24, 2010. That time it was unofficially as I didn't want to pay into the pool. Still, I decided to chart my progress and see if I could really lose anything. Today (Nov. 18, 2011) I just finished our third weight loss competition (I actually paid the $20 entry fee into the pool on both the second and third competitions).

On Sept. 24, 2010 I clocked in at 264.4 lbs
On Nov. 18, 2011 I clocked in at 215.0 lbs

Feels pretty good.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Solving Thursday Night Football Problems

I occasionally ready Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column. Last week, one of his readers e-mailed him a suggestion when King wrote about the problems with Thursday Night Football. The problem is that teams have to cram a week's worth of preparation into three days. This gets further exacerbated when you have late games and travel. For example, the New York Jets played the Sunday night game this past weekend. It was after midnight when the players got home. Then they had to cram a week's preparation into three days, then hop on a plane and fly out to Denver to play tonight. That doesn't seem like a fair situation.

The solution that this reader e-mailed Peter King was a setup where all 32 teams in the NFL played one Thursday game and that to prepare, they not play the Sunday before. This would have two additional advantages in that it would get rid of bye weeks as we have them now and it would guarantee every team at least one prime time game. I would think the NFL network would like it in that it would mean extending Thursday night games to nearly the entire season.

My own spin on it would work like this. There are 32 teams in the NFL. To give each one a unique match up on Thursday would mean 16 games. However, Detroit and Dallas already play on Thanksgiving, in addition to the normally scheduled Thursday night game (this year it's SF vs. Baltimore). This now gives you 13 games to fit into 16 weeks. My thought is to have all 32 teams play for the first three weeks, give four teams week 4 off and then open Thursday Night Football with a double header much like Monday Night Football does now. The remaining 15 weeks would then be filled in with a single game and the two teams taking part in that game taking the week before off.

An example using match ups from this season (and including all scheduled Thursday Night games) might look as follows:

Week 5 - Minnesota at Carolina, Arizona at St. Louis
Week 6 - New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Week 7 - Kansas City at Chicago
Week 8 - Washington at NY Giants
Week 9 - Cincinnati at Tennessee
Week 10 - Oakland at San Diego
Week 11 - NY Jets at Denver
Week 12 - Green Bay at Detroit, Miami at Dallas, San Francisco at Baltimore
Week 13 - Philadelphia at Seattle
Week 14 - Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Week 15 - Jacksonville at Atlanta
Week 16 - Houston at Indianapolis
Week 17 - Buffalo at New England

This will probably never happen, but it fun to think about.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Evil Community Lives

With the recent announcement that Community may be headed to the trash bin of television history, I would like to remind everyone that Evil Community will live on no matter what the Networks decide. Eventually, they will overcome the Prime Timeline.



Monday, November 14, 2011

Beatles Guessing Game

Teefury put out a shirt yesterday referencing a number of the Beatles songs. I can get most of them, but there are a few that I don't know. Perhaps someone else can do better than me:

Friday, November 11, 2011

Ron Swanson's Pyramid of Greatness

Capitalism: God's way of determining who is smart and who is poor.
Intensity: Give 100%. 110% is impossible. Only idiots recommend that.
Attire: Shorts over 6" are capri pants. Shorts under 6" are European.


Also, Ron Swanson for Governor of Indiana.

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Election Day - 2011

Today is the off-year election. Nothing too big going on (at least from a national point of view) but there are a number of things on the ballot today. On the local level, aside from city council and school board, there are three levies (the biggest of which is the school levy).

But more play will be given to State Issue 2. This is a referendum on the Ohio law to restrict collective bargaining for unions. It's similar to the one Wisconsin passed and had all their trouble over, but the Ohio version is more restrictive, going so far as to essentially eliminate all collective bargaining. Because the law is even more Draconian, independents as well as some Republicans are torn over the law while Democrats are strongly unified against it. As such, Issue 2 will almost certainly be defeated.

I've not read anywhere what the contingency plans are. The general thought was to break the law up and pass various pieces individually that people did like. That would likely remove some of the worst parts of the legislation and start restricting costs without destroying the unions completely (which would garner more independent and some Democratic support).

If anything interesting happens, I'll update later today or tomorrow.

*UPDATE*
Issue 2 did go down 60-40, but Issue 3 (healthcare opt-out) passed nearly 67-33.

All levies passed and all three incumbents were reelected to the school board.

Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Occupy the Caucus

It would seem that the various Occupy Wall Street groups are trying to coordinate for a major sit-in of both the various Republican candidates offices and Mr. Obama's reelection offices a week before the Caucus on January 3.

The first move will be to try to sit in the offices. Obviously this won't last long and they will probably be evicted quickly by the various local sheriffs. After that, they'll sit outside and try to block doors, harass workers, and create as much nuisance that will get them noticed (without being arrested).

Now my parents live about 15 miles from Iowa (on the Illinois side). I've been over to Iowa many times for various things, especially in December and January. I can tell you that it can get downright miserable outside at this time of year. Cold, biting winds. Sleet and snow. Misery. If they can hang tough and get something done, more power to them. But I wonder if all members who go are going to be prepared for just how miserable Old Man Winter might make this for them.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Nevada Surrenders

After my hype and hysteria, Nevada has surrendered to the whims of the National Republican Committee. Not only did they abandon their originally planned caucus date of January 14, but they actually fully complied with the RNC's request and moved the date behind Florida to Saturday, Feb. 4.

With Nevada out of the way, New Hampshire will almost certainly take January 10 as their primary date, a week after Iowa's locked in date of January 3. As such, the dates should be as follows:

January 3 (Tuesday) - Iowa
January 10 (Tuesday) - New Hampshire
January 21 (Saturday) - South Carolina
January 31 (Tuesday) - Florida
February 4 (Saturday) - Nevada
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota, Non-binding Missouri Primary
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri Caucus
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 12 (Tuesday) - Ohio
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah

Friday, October 21, 2011

Ohio Election Games

The primaries are currently scheduled in Ohio for March 6 (Super Tuesday). However, the recent appeal from a petition group that wants to put the 2012 Congressional Districts on the Nov. 2012 ballot has thrown a wrench into things. Since there is a possibility that no one will know what the districts look like for the 2013 Congress, the Ohio legislature is looking to buy itself more time in trying to figure out what to do.

To accomplish this, the Ohio Senate passed a bill yesterday that keeps nearly all the primaries in March. But it moves the Congressional and Presidential primaries to June 12. Why the Presidential primaries? Because of the way Ohio allocates delegates to the Republican Party convention, which rely on Congressional District vote totals to apportion the delegates from each district.

This bill still has to pass the House and then be signed by the Governor. However, with the likelihood of the Congressional Districts being unresolved in the next few weeks, postponement is a very likely possibility. For the Democrats this is no big deal as there is only one person on their ballot. But for the Republicans, this is rather annoying as it is highly likely that the contest will be decided by June. In March there would have still been some uncertainty as the race will probably have started to reduce itself to a Romney vs. not-Romney contest (with Mr. Cain and Mr. Perry being the strongest vyers for this role at the moment). But, such is life.

Once the dust is settled here and between New Hampshire and Nevada (Iowa has now locked fully in to Jan. 3 as their caucus date), I'll repost the dates so we can get a bead on when we can start to figure who will be challenging Mr. Obama next year.

One final note, it is looking as though Nevada may back down and reschedule their caucus for Tuesday Jan. 17. That would give enough space between contests that New Hampshire would then insert itself into the Jan. 10 spot. This has not been officially confirmed yet though.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Palmer to Oakland

Carson Palmer has been traded to the Oakland Raiders. In return the Bengals will get the Raiders first round pick of the 2012 draft and the Raiders second round pick of 2013. If the Raiders make the playoffs and win a game before the 2013 draft, the second round pick will be upgraded to a first round pick.

This is probably the best deal for Palmer where he will be able to jump in immediately and the coach of the Oakland Raiders, Hue Jackson, was a coach of Palmer's at USC and the Wide Receivers coach for the Bengals. Even better, it makes Mike Brown eat his words. Now, we just have to see what the Bengals do with these two picks.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Volcano in the Canaries

The El Hierro volcano is currently erupting about a half mile below the ocean's surface. El Hierro is the smallest and Westernmost of the Canary Islands and has been experiencing massive earthquake swarms since July.

Yesterday there was a 4.3 earthquake that has opened a fissure in the rock and something is erupting out of it. At the moment, scientists haven't been able to determine if it's lava or gas.

The primary danger is to the residents themselves. However, there is a secondary danger. If the eruption continues and becomes large scale, it could cause a partial collapse of the island. If this were to happen, the resultant impact could generate a tsunami that would impact the East Coast of North America (potentially significantly in places like Virginia and Florida).

We'll see if anything happens.

Thursday, October 06, 2011

Just About Set

Things are just about ready to go for the Republican Primaries. With the announcements of Mr. Christie and Mrs. Palin that they are not running, the field of candidates looks to be locked in to what we have. Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry will be considered the favorites and awarded frontrunner status by The Powers That Be. Mr. Cain will probably be set in tier 1A, close to the front but not quite of their caliber. Everyone else will be considered to be behind those three unless they make a big splash in the earlier primaries.

Speaking of the primaries, the calendar is almost set as well. Nevada announced yesterday that they have set their caucus for January 14. That puts a full week between them and South Carolina (January 21) with another 10 days before the Florida primary January 31).

The only remaining states are New Hampshire and Iowa. The main problem is that New Hampshire actually has a law on their books specifying that their primary must be held at least a week before the next primary or caucus (Nevada). This now means that to comply with New Hampshire law, the primary date must either be set on Saturday (January 7) or the next available Tuesday (January 3).

If New Hampshire opts for January 7, Iowa would probably take January 2 or 3, keeping everything in 2012 (barely). However, if New Hampshire opts for January 3, Iowa will vault itself into 2011 with the caucuses being held sometime in the week after Christmas. Christmas is on a Sunday this year so I wouldn't be surprised to see December 27 (Tuesday) being looked at as the target date.

For ease of reference, I've put together a map with the various states and what month their primaries and caucuses are. I didn't bother creating a new color for Iowa, assuming they fall in December. Most of the March contests (including Ohio) are being held on the 6th which is Super Tuesday.


The official dates for the 48 set sates (Republican contests only) are:
January 14 (Saturday) - Nevada
January 21 (Saturday) - South Carolina
January 31 (Tuesday) - Florida
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

A Slip of the Tongue

Mr. Obama might a slight verbal gaffe while talking to the Congressional Black Caucus over the weekend:

If asking a billionaire to pay the same tax rate as a Jew, uh, as a janitor makes me a warrior for the working class, I wear that with a badge of honor. I have no problem with that.

I'm not sure how one confuses the two words (other than they both start with "J"). I suspect Mr. Obama was more rattled by the NY-9 election that he is letting on. But regardless, the optics of it don't look particularly good (especially given the long Anti-Semitic tirades regarding Jews and money).

Monday, September 26, 2011

Car Talk Puzzler

A man drives to work one fall morning and sees a sign that displays the temperature in both Fahrenheit and Celsius. While he's at work, a strong cold front moves through the city and the temperature drops like a stone. On the way home, curious to see how badly the temperature dropped, the man looks at the sign again. The temperature in Fahrenheit has dropped 36 degrees. But he notices that the temperature in Celsius is exactly the same as that morning. The man shakes his head and assumes that there was just a problem with the sign. There was in fact a small glitch with the sign.

What was the glitch with the sign and what were the temperatures from that morning and that afternoon?

Answers (highlight):
The minus sign on the Celsius temperature was burned out.
Morning: 50F/10C
Afternoon: 14F/-10C

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Friday, September 16, 2011

More Earthquakes

Well, we didn't get the big earthquake in North America on Thursday, but things are going to hell around the rest of the world.

Within a span of 24 hours, the four points of the ring of fire were hit between Sept. 14 and 15:

Valparaiso, Chile - 7:00, 9/14 - 5.9
Aleutian Islands, Alaska - 18:00, 9/14 - 6.1
New Zealand - 8:00, 9/15 - 6.0
Honshu, Japan - 8:00, 9/15 - 6.2

Then, about an hour and a half after the 188.5 window, there was a 7.3 off Fiji.

What's more, there has been huge earthquake swarm near Sendai, Japan with four magnitude 5's and two magnitude 6's within a span of 3.5 hours today.

The 188.5 theory may not have fully panned out but something is definitely up. This level of energy being released in suggestive of something.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Ohio's New Districts

This is only preliminary but I don't think there will be too many changes. I don't like it.


The deal that was reached is obviously that one Republican and one Democrat will go away. In this case, Marcy Kaptur (D) loses her district to Dennis Kucinich (D). Ms. Kaptur would then have to go through Bob Latta (R) but with all the Democratic votes staying in 9, Ms. Kaptur is likely a dead woman walking.

On the Republican side, District 3 and District 7 are completely moved, pitting their two representatives, Mike Turner (R) and Steve Austria (R), against each other. As Austria is the newbie and Turner has the city of Dayton behind him, Turner will probably get the nod to take over.

Splitting the difference is the new District 16. Cutting up to the outskirts of Cleveland and Akron, it absorbs a lot of what was District 13. This will pit Democrat Betty Sutton against Republican Jim Renacci. District 16 was held by a Democrat following the 2008 election but taken back by the Republicans in 2010. I imagine this district is designed such that Wayne County will keep it Republican, but the proximity to two major metro areas will probably make this a swing district in some years.

The two most appalling things about the map are Districts 1 and 15. It is a simple given that Columbus would be given it's own unique district (that the Democrats will control easily) and the movement of District 3 to here is somewhat understandable. But the twisting and looping done to keep Steve Stivers (R) with a nice Republican district is painful to see.

District 1 is almost worse. District 1 has, and probably always will be, dominated by the city of Cincinnati. However, the district has become much more competitive over the past few years (being held by a Democrat from 2008-2010). The move to attach heavily Republican Warren County (where I live) to District 1 is a blatant move to swing the scales from even to strong Republican. Even worse, despite it's growing population, Warren County will be completely ignored as city issues dominate the plate of the representative (currently Steve Chabot).

The net takeaway is that out of sixteen districts, Democrats will dominate four of them (3, 9, 11, and 13). There will probably be close fights for Districts 6 and 16 and they will go as Ohio and the nation goes. But for the 2012 elections, I would expect that the Republicans will have 12 seats while the Democrats have 4.

Major Earthquake Today?

I first learned about this back in April, but since today is the target day, I thought I would mention it to see if anything actually happens. In the past year, there has been a significant earthquake at 3 of the 4 points of the "Ring of Fire" with each earthquake occurring 188.5 days after the last.

Things began with the 8.8 magnitude Chilean earthquake on Feb. 27, 2010, 06:34 UTC.

Then came the 7.1 magnitude Christchurch earthquake on Sept. 4, 2010. However, if you measure per UTC time, the earthquake occurred on Sept. 3, 2010, 16:35 UTC. This was the primary earthquake that caused a great deal of devastation, although all of the deaths there occurred in the large aftershock on Feb. 22, 2011.

After this came the 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011, 05:46 UTC.

If you measure these out at universal time, each occurs 188.5 days apart (plus or minus a couple hours) going around the Ring of Fire in a clockwise pattern. Going forward from this, the fourth and last point to be hit would be the west coast of North America on Sept. 15, 2011, ~17:00-18:00 UTC (That would be between 9 and 10 AM PDT).

Of course, earthquakes don't behave in regular patterns so the viability of this is highly questionable. But it is certainly worth watching for. Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. If a major quake does happen today, it is suggestive of a pattern of some kind. What that pattern means though is beyond me.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Jewish Anger Upsets Democrat

You may not have heard about it, but there were two special elections last night for vacant House seats. NV-2 was previously held by a Republican and it stayed Republican to no one's great surprise. The big news came out of the other race in NY-9.

NY-9 is out on Long Island and covers parts of Brooklyn and Queens. It was last held by Anthony Weiner who resigned due to some sexual indiscretions. Given that, it was naturally assumed that the Democrat (David Weprin) was expected to have a closer than usual race against Republican Bob Turner (Weiner defeated Turner by 9 points in 2010).

However, two things cropped up. President Obama's approval rating (down across the country) has heavily cratered in this district (31/56) and this is leading to Democratic anger and apathy, buoying the Republican hopes. The other is that like most New York City districts, NY-9 is heavily gerrymandered to favor a particular ethnic group. In this case, Orthodox Jews.

Jewish voters do tend to be stereotypically liberal, but the combination of Weiner's moral issues, the bad economic situation, and Mr. Obama's stance that favors the Arabs over Israel have pushed these voters into either apathy (leading to staying home) or a direct vote against the establishment.

Democrat National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz tried out some interesting contortions by trying to claim that NY-9 is a very difficult district for Democrats to win. Given that a Republican has not won the district since the administration of Warren G. Harding, and that it has produced such Democratic notables as Chuck Schumer and Geraldine Ferraro, this is a bit hard to swallow. Ms. Wasserman Schultz's claim that this due primarily to the large Orthodox Jewish voting bloc is also a bit unsettling (especially given her own Jewish faith).

Time will tell if this really means anything for 2012. If the economy improves, I foresee that the Democrats will take the district back without much trouble. But if it does not, more districts might fall and it could spell certain doom for Mr. Obama's reelection chances.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Goodbye Michele

Representative Michele Bachmann (R-MN) was always something of a long shot in the Presidential race. No President has been elected from the House save James Garfield in 1880.

However what little chance she had (and the better shot at the VP slot) got flushed down the drain in her post-debate comments regarding the link between vaccines and mental retardation. Mrs. X has kept me up to date on these things over the years and this stuff falls into the realm of chemtrails, HAARP, and the lizard-people government.

Mrs. Bachmann will probably try to walk this back and do damage control but when you speak words that people would normally associate with Ron Paul, I think your goose is officially cooked.

Thursday, September 08, 2011

Hurricane Songs

How do you solve a problem like Maria?

Could be fun for Florida by mid-next week.

Friday, September 02, 2011

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Nominee Nicknames

With the Republican primary starting to get settled, things are heating up between the various groups of followers. One of the most amusing things to come out of this is the nicknames that get applied to the various followers.

In many ways, this started with the Ron Paul followers. Their obsessive nature in promoting Mr. Paul gave an opening for giving them a cult-like following name. The settled name seems to be Ronulans (although I've also seen Paulbots). I rather liked that one.

The followers of Sarah Palin (sticking with her for a 2012 run since 2008) have been affectionately named "Palinistas".

Mitt Romney's followers haven't fully settled on a name yet. Mittbots seems to be the most common although I've also seen Romneyites and plays on gloves (playing off Romney's derisive nickname of "Mittens")

As Rick Perry has only recently gotten it, his followers aren't really settled in either. I did see one that I thought was quite funny: Perrykrishnas. I've also seen Perrykins.

I've not seen enough support for Bachmann in the blogs I visit to see any particular nicknames for her followers. I would suggest that portents a great deal for the length of her candidacy.

If I see any other good names, I'll add them to the list.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

An Extreme Gaming What If

People who enjoy historical "What If?" scenarios usually confine themselves to well known junctures that have obvious ramifications (Lee's lost 1862 orders being a well known example). However, everyone who plays historical war games indulges in much the same level of what if.

One of the ones that has intrigued me the most was a game I played a few years ago. The game was a recreation of the First Battle of Kernstown (the only battle Stonewall Jackson ever lost) and this one game was memorable to me based on how badly things went for me (I was playing the Confederates). In the very first turn, as I was pushing my forces across Hogg Run when a long single cannon shot killed Stonewall Jackson! This act destroyed my morale and the dice went against me the rest of the game. I ended up withdrawing most of my forces by the halfway point of the game with Brig. Gen. Garnett's First Brigade suffering over 50% casualties and Col. Fulkerson's Third Brigade nearly annihilated and Fulkerson wounded. Based on the 3,800 Confederate participants, I figure this would have resulted in over 1000 casualties, far more than the original 718; to say nothing of the loss of Jackson himself.

Playing this out is probably the most difficult aspect. The Battle of Kernstown was a tactical defeat for the Confederates but a strategic victory as the Union committed more troops to protecting Washington and driving Jackson out of the Shenandoah rather than reinforcing McClellan on the Peninsula. If my game had actually happened, Garnett would have probably taken command of Jackson's command (ironic given that Jackson blamed Garnett for the loss and had him removed from command). Lincoln would still have committed the troops he did to the Shenandoah Valley so the immediate result would not have changed.

It is likely that even with Jackson's death, Lee would have still advised Jefferson Davis to continue to harass the Union in the Shenandoah to protect Johnson's Army. Garnett would have likely been reinforced by Maj. Gen. Richard Ewell's division, however, in this scenario, Ewell would have taken command rather than been under Jackson. It is at this point that things get interesting. Ewell, while a good general, did not have the command mastery, nor the ability to drive his men at the 30+ miles a day that Jackson did. It is somewhat likely that Ewell would have made several offensive feints before settling in to a good defensive position and letting Gen. Fremont's and Gen. Banks' armies attack him on ground of his choosing.

No matter what the outcome of these battles, this series of movements would have been less immediately costly to the Union and would likely have permitted some, if not all, of Gen. McDowell's army (stationed at Fredricksburg) to move south and reinforce McClellan outside of Richmond. What's more, Ewell would have been unlikely to have been able to reinforce Lee for the planned attack on McClellan's right flank (Battle of Beaver Dam Creek) before McClellan pushed forward with his own attacks.

The ultimate result of this would likely have still been Confederate victory as McClellan technically won most of the battles of the Seven Days but withdrew as though he had been beaten. However, it likely would have been an even bloodier affair as Lee would have had to shift even more troops from the main body to attack the Union right (likely reinforced by McDowell) and the reduced strength in the middle would have given allowed the Union to maul the Confederates even more. Even with McClellan's withdrawal from the Peninsula, the Union would likely have still had two reasonably sized armies in the Shenandoah Valley. McDowell might have been pulled back to Fredricksburg or even Manassas but it still would have left a strong Union presence in Northern Virginia.

With Gen. Pope taking over for McClellan, there is a reasonable chance that he would have had a stronger army than he had historically and Lee's army would have likely been weaker than historically. What's more, historically Gen. Pope's army was heavily harassed by Jackson's army, to the point that Gen. Longstreet was able to outflank him and devastate the Union army at Second Manassas. Pope would have probably still found a way to have been defeated, but the bloody attrition that would have taken place would have likely played out much differently. What's more, there is a reasonable chance that Pope might have been able to win a small victory somewhere in Virginia that would have allowed Lincoln to issue the Emancipation Proclamation a month or so earlier than originally issued on September 22, 1862.

My ultimate theory is that had Jackson died at Kernstown in March 1862, the Confederates would have been able to hold on much as they did, but it would have been a harder grind. So much so, that I would speculate that there would have been a real chance that the Union Army under either Gen. Burnsides or Gen. Hooker would have successfully captured Richmond in 1863, although I imagine that Lee would have found a way to keep the Army of Northern Virginia intact and fighting for upwards of another year.

With the likely defeat of the Confederacy in 1864, Lincoln would have been easily reelected (especially if McClellan was nominated by the Democrats as he was historically). John Wilkes Booth was in high demand as an actor in New England throughout most of 1863, although the opening of Ford's Theater in November 1863 gave him several opportunities to perform in Washington. Booth would have likely tried to go ahead with his plans of either kidnapping or killing Lincoln in 1864, but the high visibility of the upcoming election might have made that difficult. If Booth had succeeded prior to the inauguration, Hannibal Hamlin would have become President.

If Booth had killed Lincoln after the election, the Electoral College would have likely been thrown into chaos with many different candidates jockeying for position. Hamlin had broad support among Northern Radicals and Andrew Johnson was only nominated to replace him as VP to keep the loyalty of Northern Democrats. If the war had been going as well as above, Hamlin might have been kept on the ticket. With Hamlin already installed as President, the Electoral College might have felt it best to keep Hamlin as mode of stability, even if he had been replaced on the ticket by Andrew Johnson. Hamlin and Lincoln were not friends per se but they did work well together, although Hamlin did not regularly attend cabinet meetings (as was the style of the time).

A Hamlin Presidency would likely have been harsher on the South as Hamlin was a staunch abolitionist prior to the war (leading to his defection from the Democratic Party in 1856). Hamlin might have gone ahead and indulged in the hanging of prominent Southern politicians for treason and sticking closer to the Republican line of giving closer to equal treatment of blacks (although probably not fully equal status).

From this we could spin out further about how white-black relations would have evolved in the South and whether Ulysses Grant would have achieved enough fame to propel himself to the Presidency in 1868 or if the Republicans would have stuck with Hamlin (with Grant as VP possibly).

All this (possibly) from a single lucky cannon shot south of Kernstown in March 1862.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Rocking and Blowing (Not in the Good Way)

A 5.9 earthquake struck just outside Louisa, VA a short while ago. Apparently it was very shallow (I've seen anywhere from 3.5 miles deep to 0.5 deep) which caused it to be felt all over the east coast and into Ohio (I did not feel it).

Naturally, as this area does not get a lot of earthquakes, news reports have everyone feeling a bit twitchy. Unfortunately, I don't think it has dawned on too many people yet that the earthquake may have damaged the foundations of some structures (even if only minorly) just before the same area is due to get hammered with 100+ mph winds as Irene is expected to move on shore (probably around North Carolina) on Thursday as either a high category 3 or a weak category 4.

I'd recommend a little praying for that area right now as it's going to get a bit bumpy.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Mt. Etna Beachgoing

I'm sure the people of Italy are used to this, but I would just find it very unnerving to play on a beach while volcanic ash vents behind me.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Wisconsin Recalls

Last night was the second of three recall elections taking place as fallout from the Democrat Senate flight from Wisconsin. A total of nine recall contests are being held. The Democrats held on to the first seat a few weeks ago (district 30) (mostly due to the ineptitude of the Republican candidate).

Last night was the contest against the six Republican incumbents (districts 2, 8, 10, 14, 18, and 32). Republicans held 4 and lost 2 (18 and 32). This means that no matter what happens next week, when the two Democratic incumbents are up, the Republicans will still control the Senate (17/16).


What's more, race handicappers suspect that there is a good chance that one of the two Democrats (Jim Holperin - district 12) will go down as his district is a more natural Republican district (much like 32 is a much more natural Democrat district). The other one (district 22) is a better shot for Democratic retention.

Taken as a whole, this is a somewhat disappointing result for the Democrats. The teacher's union and other outside union forces poured a lot of money into these races and had hoped to at least gain control of the Senate. This would have been viewed as acceptance of the Democrats tactic of leaving the state as a form of protest and given them momentum towards recalling Governor Walker; to say nothing of assuring that the state stays blue in 2012. Now, they are looking at about $30 million spent to narrow the Senate to 18-15 (when they probably would have taken districts 18 and 32 in the next election anyway) and have galvanized the grass roots Republicans.

Still, much could change over the next few months and I wouldn't go relying on Wisconsin in any red state calculations by a long shot if I were the Republican presidential candidate.

Tuesday, August 09, 2011

How to Stimulate an Economy

Ok people. A quick lesson.

Low taxes (producing low prices) = economic resurgence
High taxes (producing high prices) = stagnant economy

Example

BTW, for those crying about the lost tax revenue to the government, those taxes are easily made up in the large surge of profits the companies made that day (and there was no corporate tax holiday).

"We've made more today than we have made in this whole month"

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Captain Morgan Crunch

I find this... amusing

(via TeeFury)

Tuesday, August 02, 2011

September List

September is shaping up to be an interesting month. Here in the US, we'll likely have the remaining holdouts decide if they want to throw their hats in the Presidential ring (Perry, Palin, and possibly Giuliani). We'll move out of the last of the straw polls and gear up for the Iowa caucus in January.

Meanwhile, the UN is going to vote to recognize Palestine as a sovereign nation (around Sept. 21). The Palestinians are now organizing themselves for large scale marches coinciding with the votes. Although they claim that they will be peaceful, history tells us that some violent actions will probably emerge out of these.

On the astronomical front, Comet Elenin will be moving directly in line between the Earth and the Sun around Sept. 26. Elenin is too small to create anything like a true eclipse, but it is possible that the debris cloud could be large enough to have some dimming effects for a day or so, to say nothing of the potential meteor showers that we might be able to see by being in the comet's tail. That could be cool.

And on the personal front, I've got a major design review that we won't be ready for on the 15th. That will cause a bit of consternation and bellyaching but hopefully nothing worse than that. Still, I'll be quite glad when that thing is over. There's very little worse than being assigned to a project with too little resources in a tight span of time. It gives one a sense of doom and failure that I don't particularly like.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Three Comets

I posted earlier about Comet Elenin and it's approach in late September/early October. But there are two other comets that will be passing though around the same time.

Comet Honda is passing through now and will be closest to Earth (0.0603 AU, 5.6 million miles) on August 15.

Comet Levy is still out beyond Mars but will get as close as 0.0484 AU (4.5 million miles) on January 7, 2012.

I'm hopeful that all three of these comets will be bright enough to get a good look at as I can't recall an instance where there were three close passes within a six month time frame.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

How Political Commercials Are Done

A fellow who goes by Jazz Shaw, has postulated a commercial based on a possible outcome of the debt ceiling impasse.

When the debt limit is reached, the Federal Government will no longer be able to spend more than it takes in. Without an official budget, there is no direct allocation of funds from the House, so the decision as to who gets what percentage of their funds is left to Treasury. So it is entirely within belief that Treasury would make small cuts here and there and all of a sudden, people can't get what they've been used to getting. That leads to commercials such as this one:








Effective, no?

Of course, there's also the potential crash of the bond market and a potential credit crisis to deal with. So we shall just have to see if either side blinks or if we actually go to this option.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Virus Public Service Poster

I don't know why, but I've always enjoyed the artwork of the public service posters from the '20s through the '40s. Maybe it's the art deco styling.

Anyway, one of the contributors to TeeFury created a public service poster for defending against computer viruses. I like it.

Thursday, July 07, 2011

Huge Saturn Storm

Cassini has captured several images of a huge storm that has formed on Saturn. It apparently started as a spot storm around the end of March, but is spreading into a ring around the northern hemisphere of the planet. Quite interesting to look at.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Oh $hit!

A 61,000 acre wildfire is about 50 ft away from the first buildings of the Los Alamos Nuclear facility. The braintrust that runs this facility has about 20,000 barrels of nuclear waste on site that are contained in tent buildings rather than the proper concrete bunker buildings (like was built at Yucca Mountain). If you look at the aerial photos, the tents are nearly surrounded by woods. If this isn't an Oh $hit moment, I don't know what is.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Ocean Reclamation of Japan

Through the twentieth century, Japan created more and more land for itself by diking areas of the ocean and then draining the area. It would seem that the 9.0 earthquake back in March has allowed the ocean to start taking back what was once hers. These videos were all taken in April when the ground was still very unsettled.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Wet and Wild Weather

Weather has been nuts here in the US lately. I did a little digging and found some information that gives a real visual on how off things are this year.

Yesterday (June 23) the city of Cincinnati (recorded at CVG) officially topped the average annual rainfall total and we still have six more months to go. The official annual average is 39.57 inches. We are now at 40.32 inches. I can't even imagine what the numbers must be like out West in the Plains:


The next chart is a track of US tornadoes since 1950. There is a small fault to this chart as the ability to track and verify separate tornadoes wasn't that good until about 20-30 years ago. Still, the past few years are still good and you can see the same effect that we saw in the rainfall totals. We are already ahead of last year's total and about 500 tornadoes behind the record year of 2004. That might seem like a lot but it should be noted that hurricanes and their leftover low pressure systems will spawn a number of tornadoes even though "tornado season" is essentially over:


According to NOAA, we are currently tracking over 200 tornadoes ahead of the high end curve of the prediction charts. If that number holds, we'll end the year with nearly 2,100 tornadoes in the US.

Lastly, there are earthquakes. This data from USGS goes up to June 22 and only covers major quakes (5.0+) but it's still impressive:


Thankfully we are roughly in line with average on the 7.0-7.9 and 8.0+ as we have had 8 and 1 respectively so far this year. The 5.0-5.9 and 6.0-6.9 are well above average though. Some of this is directly due to the Japan quake and earthquake accumulation is distinctly not linear. Still it's rather disconcerting to see that our earthquake totals for the first six months are already above the total numbers for 2001-2003. It seems highly likely that we will top the 2007 total of 2,270. Were the Earth to get another large quake (and with the volcano activity, that seems possible), it would push things well past that number and possibly close to the 3,000 range.

Just one item would be enough for one to sit up and take notice, but all three grab one and shake them somewhat. There is probably some sort of cause but whether that is solar actively or magnetic and gravitational shifts in the solar system, I couldn't say. Either way, let's hope this ride slows down before it gets any bumpier.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Bad Weather News

It is snowing in Colorado. That is somewhat weird given that today is the first day of summer.

But the truly bad part is that it is a reminder that the Rocky Mountain snow pack is still very thick and will continue to melt and pour into the Missouri and Colorado Rivers.

In Nebraska, there are two nuclear power plants, Ft. Calhoun and Cooper, that are in significant danger of being overtaken by the flood waters. Ft. Calhoun was taken off-line for maintenance in April, but it still has spent fuel rods in a cooling pool located on site. It is currently below the flood line, but is being protected by a rubber wall and a wall of sandbags. This has the effect of making it look like an island fortress.

Cooper is still active but the waters are still rising around it as well. If either or both of these plants are inundated, it could dump a lot of nuclear waste material into the Missouri River, which will then flow into the Mississippi and then into the Gulf.

This is some bad juju that bears watching.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Total Lunar Eclipse Tomorrow

Tomorrow there is going to be a total lunar eclipse that will be visible on six of the seven continents. Only us in North America will miss out. The eclipse will start around 12:30 PM EDT and will last until 6 PM EDT. The eclipse will hit its apex right around 3:15 PM EDT.

The bullseye of the eclipse will be in the Indian Ocean but totality will be all over India, the Middle East and most of Africa. The view dies out about halfway across the Pacific on the east side and just before it hits the Caribbean on the west side.


Hopefully there will be some cool pictures of this available on Thursday.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Very Early Republican Polling

You might not know it unless you were paying very close attention, but there are now eight officially declared candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination. These official eight are former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former MN Governor Tim Pawlenty, former MA Governor Mitt Romney, former PA Senator Rick Santorum, TX Representative Ron Paul, former NM Governor Gary Johnson, and gay-rights activist Fred Karger.

Just after this lot you have the "preparing to declare themselves" crowd. These include MN Representative Michele Bachmann, former UT governor Jon Huntsman, and former LA Governor Buddy Roemer.

In the third pack you have people that have talked about running but have not taken any of the formal steps. These would include former AK Governor Sarah Palin, TX Governor Rick Perry, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani, and former UN Ambassador John Bolton.

Rounding out the discussion are those who other people wish would get into the Presidential race. These include former FL Governor Jeb Bush, NJ Governor Chris Christie, WI Representative Paul Ryan, and FL Senator Marco Rubio.

Any polls taken at this time would be essentially useless as we are 17 months from the election. That doesn't stop them though. Over the past month, Mr. Romney has polled somewhat well (cracking 20% in the recent ABC poll). This has made him the "front runner" for the time being. Most other candidates well down the list as they typically are all jockeying for the same voters. The lone immediate challenger to Mr. Romney in the recent spat of polls appears to be Ms. Palin. She appears to generally be around 2-4 points behind Mr. Romney but that's still a reasonable distance above the noise that makes up the other candidate's polling numbers.

Because of the swirl of gamesmanship going on between the states (especially Florida), it is still unclear when the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primaries will be (although early to mid-January seems likely). The firming of these dates will set the official deadline for any candidates who wish to declare themselves. I would personally expect to see the field fully set by late August or early September just because of the necessity of getting ground troops in to Iowa and New Hampshire. Once the field is fully set, we should see three or four candidates rise up to become the official gladiators while everyone else fades into the background.

Thursday, June 02, 2011

Movin' Trash

This is one of Boy X's favorite songs from the Elmo's Green Thumb CD. It's fun to listen to him sing along if you start him.

A: We're movin' trash...
X: move it, move it. Dig it


Wednesday, June 01, 2011

Media Insanity

The Bible says that in the last days there will be "raging insanity" (2 Timothy 3:1). I'm sure he didn't mean it quite like this, but Paul could very easily have been talking about our media for the past three days.

For those in the dark, Ms. Palin was invited to speak at the Raging Thunder rally in DC on the Sunday before Memorial Day. She accepted and had her RV painted up in a very flashy populist mode. When she announced that she had accepted the invitation, she noted that she and the family would be seeing some sites on their way up the eastern seaboard while meandering up to New Hampshire.

All of this apparently has set the media's hair on fire. Dozens of reporters have been shadowing this bus tour and acting quite pissy that she has not given them one-on-one access nor given them an itinerary of where she is going. All this despite the fact that (a) she is technically not a declared candidate for anything and (b) still employed by Fox News and might be viewed as in breach of contract if she consulted with other media outlets. Yet, all we are missing the helicopter shots and we would be having the white Bronco chase all over again.

While Ms. Palin has not declared yet, it would seem that she is going to throw her hat in the ring. She is driving to New Hampshire, she will be driving to Iowa later this month, and it was noted today that she will be going to South Carolina after that. All that's missing is a trip to Nevada and she will have hit the four early boys of the Presidential season, so it does not take a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen in the near future.

Still, her eventual getting into the race doesn't explain the media frenzy that going on. Whether you like her, love her, or hate her, it is rather disquieting to see the media act like a pack of feral dogs after a bone for an early campaign tour/publicity event. When CNN acts more like TMZ, something strange is definitely afoot.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Ohio Population Shift

The recent election in NY made me take a quick look to see when the new Congressional districts have to be in place in Ohio (Dec. 7). When I was looking, I found this little graphic that confirms my suspicions that the five remaining Democrats will be under fire:



From what I have heard, it is almost a given that OH-10 will be blown away, most of it combined with OH-11 I would imagine. After that, it looks as though OH-9 or OH-17 will be on the chopping block. OH-13 is the only other Democrat district and that one actually increased by 18,000 people.

If it were me, I'd get rid of OH-17. It lost 30,000 people and could easily be split four ways into OH-6, OH-13, OH-14, and OH-16.

The other little bugaboo is how to reapportion the rest of Ohio. The Columbus area showed dramatic growth and could (in theory) be split into four districts (combined OH-7, OH-12, and OH-15 grew by over 225,000 people). If they take that tack, one then looks at the possibility of OH-9 being absorbed between OH-5, OH-13 and OH-16 as well. Likely, the new Columbus district would create a Democrat safe harbor at the core and surround it with three Republican strongholds, unless they can find a way to gerrymander it to a part of a heavily Republican x-urb.

As such, I would say that the only safe Democrats are Marcia Fudge (OH-11) and Betty Sutton (OH-13)

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

2011 NY-26 Special

Flying way below the radar today is a special election in NY to fill a vacancy in NY-26. That's in Western NY out in the more rural areas before you come to Buffalo and Niagra. The main candidates are Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul. It's a nominally Republican district but there are a couple of wrinkles that are making this one interesting.

First, it's a special election so turnout will be low and that always throws things off.

Second, there is a third-party candidate (Jack Davis) who has registered as a "Tea Party", despite his previous runs for various offices under the Democrat label. Mr. Davis has been drawing extra votes, although it's not quite clear as to whether he has been drawing more from the right or the left. Either way, he's playing spoiler to someone and could give Independents enough of an outlet to let it be a dead draw between registered Republican and Democrats that show up.

Polls in NY generally close around 9 PM but it will probably be several hours before enough votes are tallied to get an idea of who won.

*UPDATE*

Ms. Hochul (D) defeats Ms. Corwin (R). Ms. Corwin conceded relatively early. Apparently, she made some very bad assumptions about this campaign.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Destruction then Beauty

Joplin, MO was nearly destroyed in a major tornado outbreak yesterday. But in the curious way that weather works, it was followed by great beauty:

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

80's Themes Again

Of course, now that I've thought about the 80's, I have to repost the three best themes of the 80's:

#3 - Transformers:


#2 - He-Man:


And yes, He-Man was gay.

#1 - GI-Joe (Movie):


Of course, it goes without saying that the opening theme and fight sequence was about the only good thing that came from the GI Joe Movie. If they had just done 90 minutes of this, it would have been a much better movie. That or just make the whole movie about Baroness and Destro. That would have worked too.

Commercials

Mrs. X and I were talking last night about old commercials and celebrities (before they were famous) who starred in them. That got me thinking about some old commercials that I remember. My view on commercials is a little stilted since the Armed Forces Network aired PSAs instead of product advertisements during the commercial breaks of shows. As such, the commercials I remember I saw over and over again on TV that had been recorded in the States and shipped to us in Japan.

Here's a few that were memorable and I've been able to find:

Peter Pan Peanut Butter

Donkey Kong Jr. Cereal:


Kentucky Fried Chicken (Hot Deal):


McDonald's (First Day):


There's a couple of others that stick in my mind but I can't find. One was a variation on the Hubba Bubba Gum Fighter (it probably didn't get broadcast much because of a somewhat caricature Native American portrayal). Another was a McDonald's commercial where a more sinister looking Hamburgler steals the hamburger pals and Ronald has to rescue them. Also a singing HI-C ad.

Ahhh... good times.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Police State Evolution

Did I miss the 4th amendment being repealed?

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Six-Planet Alignment

This is cool. I've not been able to see it properly because of how early the sun is coming up now, but this should give you an idea of what's happening. This is the alignment from this morning:



The red line that the planets seem to be following is the ecliptic (path of the sun) line while the blue line is the path of the moon. Right now Mars, Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter are all clustered in the heart of Pisces while Uranus is on the outer edge of it. Neptune is in between Aquarius and Capricorn while Pluto is just above Sagittarius and below Scutum.

Only Saturn is missing as it is hanging out in Virgo which would be somewhere in the Pacific at this time (being three constellations ahead of Sagittarius).

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Marvel Situation Room Errors

Someone doctored the situation room photo from the Osama bin Laden operation to make the various characters into Marvel comic book heroes.



There's just one small problem. Most of the characters are not Marvel. Flash, Superman, Batman, Green Lantern, Spectre, Catwoman, Wonder Woman, and the Martian Manhunter were all created by DC Comics. Spawn is a product of Image Comics. In fact, everyone seated at the table is a member of the Justice League, which is comprised entirely of DC Comics characters. Captain America and Spiderman are the only actual Marvel characters there.

Of course, we won't even get into the irony of Mr. Obama as Captain America, especially as one would have expected him to be Superman. Mr. Biden as Flash is just funny.

Others might prefer the Royal Wedding Edition.

Monday, May 09, 2011

Dire Flooding

Many people are critical of those who would build their houses in known flood plains. But this is just insane:



Cairo, IL has crested at 61.8 feet (record). Memphis will crest at 48.0' tomorrow (second highest). At one point, tributaries to the Mississippi were flowing backwards because of the water volume. Definately some bad times going on.