Thursday, January 28, 2010

Mr. Matthews... Please Shut Up.

It’s interesting. He is post-racial, by all appearances. You know, I forgot he was black tonight for an hour. You know, he’s gone a long way to become a leader of this country, and passed so much history in just a year or two. I mean, it’s something we don’t even think about.

Far be it from me to read too much into things, but if someone says something like this, doesn't it imply that one doesn't expect a black man to be able to say or do these type of things?

It's Called Class, Dude

I generally don't try to get too worked up over the behavior of our elected and non-elected officials. They're human and with that much power it would be unbelievable naive to not expect corruption and a certain level of entitlement.

However, there are certain levels of decorum that one should expect. A President taking time out of his State of the Union address to openly criticize a specific ruling of the Supreme Court shows a very specific lack of class. It doesn't matter if you think that that ruling is right or wrong. The powers of the government are separated and using a big speech moment to throw a temper tantrum about it reveals a great deal about a person's character. I do not blame Justice Alito for his reaction, nor do I get the impression that many other people will.

Also, is just me or does Justice Ginsburg look terrible? I know she has been sick and has been rumored to be considering retirement but I wasn't expecting her to look that bad.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Deleware in Play

I posted earlier that for the Republicans to take the Delaware Senate seat would be a bit of a uphill climb. That climb got a little easier over the weekend as Beau Biden, son of VP Joe Biden, declined to enter the race. Effectively, there now is no declared Democratic candidate for the Delaware senate seat. That will change quickly I'm sure, but it does give the primary Republican candidate, Mike Castle, a significant leg up.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Championship Weekend

I went 2 and 2 last week. Not bad, especially since I would have been wrong no matter what about the San Diego-NY Jets game. No way was I expecting that.

This weekend's games should be pretty good. On the AFC side, I like Indianapolis. There are two things working against the Jets in my opinion. First, the Jets play a style very similar to what Baltimore does and Indy had very little problem with Baltimore. Second, I think the Colts want to prove that the only reason they lost to the Jets in Week 16 is because the scrubs were put in in the second half. It will be a close game, but I think the Colts pull slowly ahead as the game progresses.

On the NFC side, things are a bit murkier. Most people seem to be going with the Saints in a close game just because of the home field advantage they will enjoy. That is certainly possible but I am always a little more comfortable with strong defenses. I also think that Brett Favre has been here a few times before will give the Vikings a better anchor than the Saints (who may get swept up in the moment). I'll take the Vikings in a very close game.

This would set up the NFL dream talking point for two weeks: Manning vs. Favre. I think the NFL wouldn't care too much about who makes it from any of these four, but the sports media will go nuts over the possibility of this match-up. I'm sure there is probably some stat guy who already has the outcomes of every time the two have met before. But, we shall see.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

MA Post Mortem

So why did Mr. Brown win as a Republican in probably the bluest of the blue states? Much ink will be wasted on both sides of the aisle talking about how one candidate was better than the other or how it was a national rebuke of Mr. Obama. In truth it was a combination of many things. The three most significant reasons, in my opinion, are:

1. Scott Brown was a very good candidate. Mr. Brown had the right message at the right time. He talked of lowering taxes and common sense solutions. He got down and met with the people all over the state. It didn’t hurt that he also is young and pleasant on the eyes.

2. Martha Coakley was a terrible candidate. Ms. Coakley did just about everything wrong that you could imagine. She stayed in the ivory tower and dismissed the common folk, refusing to go out and glad hand, refusing to push the GOTV efforts of her staff, and making gaff after gaff after gaff. Her record as Attorney General made many people cringe as well, being on the wrong side of several prominent cases.

3. Obamacare was very unpopular, even in Massachusetts. Mr. Brown made no secret during the campaign that he would be the 41st vote against the Obamacare bill. Exit polling done by Rasmussen, showed that the status of Obamacare was the most important issue with 56% of those voting and Obamacare is opposed in Massachusetts 49-40.

All told, it was a perfect storm and Mr. Brown still only won by 100,000 votes. When Mr. Brown is up for reelection in 2012, it may be an even tougher road to hoe.

Still, Mr. Brown and the Republicans should enjoy the moment. If the government continues to go down the path it has chosen and the economy doesn’t improve, life could get very uncomfortable for some Democrats, especially those in red and purple states.

MA Maps

As promised, here is the county map from last night for Mr. Brown's victory (52-47):

For comparison, here is the map of Mr. Obama's win over Mr. McCain in 2008 (62-36):
For additional comparison, a hair over 3 million votes were cast in the 2008 election with Mr. Obama getting 1.9 million of them. Mr. McCain got 1.1 million. Last night, 2.25 million votes were cast with Mr. Brown getting 1.17 million of them. This is a turnout drop-off of about 25%, which isn't bad for a special election in January. Still, it's something to consider when doing the post-mordem. I'll try to tackle that later today.

One more thing. How’s this for an Oh Shit! moment? In last night’s election, Mr. Brown won independents 73-25.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

MA Special Election

1:00 PM Early word is that turnout in the city is light (7%) but turnout in the suburbs of Boston and surrounding areas is very heavy. This bodes very well for Mr. Brown.

1:20 PM Coakley GOTV folks are getting rebuffed. Not good for her.

1:30 PM Wall Street Journal is reporting that due to the quickness of the Brown surge, the standard exit polling firms did not put their people in place in time. As such, there will be no exit polls for the race.

1:55 PM Got to love Ed Schultz /s

2:05 PM Rasmussen has announced that he will have exit polls. Expect his site to crash soon.

2:15 PM Interesting report. Apparently the NRSC and RNC actually knows how to learn.

2:30 PM Oops. You just can't trust media folks when you rig an election.

2:35 PM Intrade pushing Brown over 80 now.

3:15 PM One bookie is already paying off for Mr. Brown. Sucks to be him if he's wrong.

8:00 PM Polls closed. With no exit polls, it'll be a while before results come in.

9:22 PM Coakley concedes with 75% of the vote counted and it's 53-46 Brown.

9:30 PM Difficult to get more info right now. Just about all conservative sites are crashing due to traffic volume. CNN is stuck on Larry King (talking about Haiti), Fox is only talking to ex-Republicans, and I refuse to watch Rachel Maddow and the Democrat blame game. Should be better when CNN goes back to regular programing at 10. (52-47, 87% reporting)

9:45 PM The worst part of Larry King is that there is no chance to use the special CNN board.

9:56 PM Coakley giving her concession speech.

10:00 PM Boston.com has the map of the counties as they shook out. A couple of days ago, I screencaped the map of Mr. Obama's victory over Mr. McCain. Comparing the two is interesting.

10:15 PM Off to bed. We'll go over this corpse tomorrow (52-47 with 96% in).

Monday, January 18, 2010

MA Poll Comparison

This site grabbed the average poll numbers between Mr. Brown and Ms. Coakley since September 15 and now. I cleaned up his chart it was a little misleading and included it below. I'd wager the major turning point was around the debate. A few good points and a few good zingers made points that combined with shoe leather politicing to produce the following chart:


Here's a summary of the last polls before the vote:

PPP: Brown 51 Coakley 46
ARG: Brown 48 Coakley 45
InsideMedford.com: Brown 50.8 Coakley 41.2
Pajamas Media: Brown 51.9 Coakley 42.3

Even Chris Matthews seems to think that this is a done deal.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Football: Divisional Round

Unfortunately, I went 4 for 4 in my picks last week. I was really hoping that the Bengals would win but I picked the Jets like I had during the regular season, hoping that karma would work against me. Oh well.

This week, I'm picking Indy over Baltimore, SD over the NY Jets, Minnesota over Dallas, and Arizona over New Orleans.

The Ravens and Jets are hot, but I think the talent level of the Colts and Chargers will be too much for them. The Colts will try to choke but I think they win in the end.

Dallas/Minnesota will be the best game of the weekend and I think the Vikings win it on some key turnover, but it will be very tight.

New Orleans was a better team but I don't think they'll be able to turn it back on after three losing games and a week off. Arizona has a hot offense and I think they will jump out to a lead and by the time New Orleans does turn it back on, it will be too late.

At the very least, it should be four good games.

Strickland Still Down

Continuing with the theme of way too early political news, incumbent Governor Ted Strickland (D) is now down 7 to John Kasich (R) (47-40). Honestly, we should wait until we have had the primaries before we start paying any attention to these polls. The primaries are scheduled for May 4.

On a similar note, Rob Portman (R) is ahead of Jennifer Brunner (D) 43-40 and ahead of Lee Fisher 44-37. Mr. Fisher has been ahead of Ms. Brunner in the limited primary polling, but if Ms. Brunner continues to show a better race against Mr. Portman, she may swing ahead by the time of the May primaries.

Previously: Looking Ahead to 2010

Senate Races 2010

With all the attention paid to the Massachusetts special election, I thought it would be interesting to list the Senate seats that are being fought over in November. Most pundits I've read state that it would an extremely good day if the Republicans picked up 8+ seats (essentially implying that it is impossible for the Senate to switch sides this year).

As of right now, there are 10 seats that will have no incumbent. Those seats are:

CT (D)
DE (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2014)
FL (R)
KS (R)
KY (R)
IL (D)
MO (R)
NH (R)
ND (D)
OH (R)

The Connecticut seat was in danger until Chris Dodd retired. Now this seat considered relatively safe for Democrats. Should the anti-incumbency feeling hold, Republicans have a good shot winning 7 of these seats with relative ease and the Delaware and Illinois seats requiring more of a fight.

The 26 seats up this year that have the incumbent vying for that seat are:

AL (R)
AK (R)
AR (D)
AZ (R)
CA (D)
CO (D)
GA (R)
HI (D)
ID (R)
IN (D)
IA (R)
LA (R)
MD (D)
NV (D)
NY (D)
NY (D) - Special election (seat up again in 2012; currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand)
NC (R)
OK (R)
OR (D)
PA (D)
SC (R)
SD (R)
UT (R)
VT (D)
WA (D)
WI (D)

On the Republican side it's already known that there will be serious primary challenges in Arizona (John McCain) and Iowa (Chuck Grassley), but of the states listed, the Democrat's best shot at taking an Republican seat would probably be Iowa. All other states are pretty red.

On the Democrat side, Nevada has already been declared essentially lost and both Arkansas and Colorado are considered uphill battles. It is also no secret that the Republicans intend to strongly pursue IN (Evan Bayh) and PA (Arlen Spector). Of course, Mr. Spector may lose his primary fight and that will change the whole picture in PA.

Of course, much can change in 10.5 months and there may be unexpected loses on either side. But looking at the state of play in January, a 12 seat switch is theoretically possible. Unlikely, but possible. The fallout from the MA special election could put a whole new spin on things as well. We shall see.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

More Massacheusetts Pain

Ms. Coakley (D) has just suffered two major defeats in her bid to replace Ted Kennedy.

First, despite being the Mass. Attorney General, she has lost the endorsement of two major police unions.

Second, she has now lost the endorsements of both Curt Schilling and Doug Flutie. Actually, the Curt Schilling one could hurt alot because her tone in making it sound like those who go to Fenway are peasants and not worthy of her time.

How much pain can she take before the race breaks for Mr. Brown.

The Wounded

One of the best episodes of Star Trek: The Next Generation was an episode called "The Wounded." A reminder about how old wounds never really heal. The culmination of the episode is when Chief Miles O'Brien (Colm Meaney) and Captain Benjamin Maxwell (Bob Gunton) sing the first verse of The Minstrel Boy in memory of a fallen comrade. It is a wonderfully haunting song and done with poignance. The lyrics are below:

The Minstrel Boy to the war is gone
In the ranks of death you will find him;
His father's sword he hath girded on,
And his wild harp slung behind him;"
Land of Song!" said the warrior bard,
"Tho' all the world betrays thee,
One sword, at least, thy rights shall guard,
One faithful harp shall praise thee!"

The Minstrel fell! But the foeman's chain
Could not bring that proud soul under;
The harp he lov'd ne'er spoke again,
For he tore its chords asunder;
And said "No chains shall sully thee,
Thou soul of love and brav'ry!
Thy songs were made for the pure and free,
They shall never sound in slavery!"

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

The Candidate is NOT Taking Questions

Things are getting ugly in Massachusetts. After Senate candidate Martha Coakley (D) refused to answer a question during a press conference, the reporter who asked it followed her to try and get an answer. A little obnoxious but normal for the time right before an election. Apparently, one of her staffers did not like this:


Worse (from my perspective) is that Ms. Coakley appears to look on and do nothing. If things like this continue to happen and get out, I might start believing that Mr. Brown (R) could actually win this election next week.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Unions for Brown?

Yesterday was a big day for the Scott Brown (R) campaign. He had a good debate with Ms. Coakley (D) and apparently raised nearly 1.3 million dollars in a single day of on-line fundraising. Not bad for Senate campaign deep in the heart of one of the bluest states in the Union.

Probably the most interesting thing that I've seen regarding this election was posted at this blog. At the bottom of the post, a Scott Brown for Senate sign was built by the Steelworkers Union. If Mr. Brown is getting support from the larger unions (SEIU not included), then that is indeed a telling sign that this race may be the squeaker that polls are suggesting it could be.

I'm not betting against Coakley just yet, although it's very clear that Democrats seem to be worried. Mrs. X will be watching American Idol on election night. I'll see if I can't get to the upstairs TV on occasion to check returns.

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Not Just the US

It's somewhat nice to know that idiocy among lawmakers is not limited to the United States.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Curiousity in MA

On January 19, Massachusetts will hold a special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy. The two principle candidates are Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R). Normally you would expect Ms. Coakley to coast to an easy victory (and she still might), but things have been a bit unsettled in the Bay State.

Current polling of likely voters is showing Ms. Coakley up only by 9 points (50-41) . This gets even scarier for Ms. Coakley when you factor in that special elections always have much lower turnout and that only two months ago, she was up by 31. Governor Deval Patrick (D) is currently suffering from high unpopularity and there has been only tepid support for Mr. Obama's legislative agenda (still better than most of the country).

A combination of these factors may drive Democratic turnout even lower than normal in a special election (especially if the weather stays bad). All of this could give Mr. Brown a realistic chance of winning the seat.

Now, do I really think that Mr. Brown will win? No. But it could end up being a much closer race than the talking heads feel it should be. It might scare a few more Blue Dogs about their reelection chances. Or it could have no effect at all. For now, we shall just watch and wait.