Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Two Elephants, Two Donkeys

Well, it is all but over for the Republican primaries. Mr. McCain won Florida by 5 points and that seems like a significant margin to me. What’s more, Mr. Giuliani pulled out and is going to endorse McCain. Not all of Mr. Giuliani’s supporters will flock to Mr. McCain, but enough of them will that the lead will be padded a bit, especially in the northeast states of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which are all winner take all (total 183 delegates). Mr. McCain also has a sizable lead in California and will probably take a majority of those delegates (173) in addition to winner-take-all Arizona (53).

Mr. Romney will probably win Utah and Massachusetts, however Massachusetts is not a winner take all (Utah is) and he will have to split those 43 delegates with Mr. McCain. I’m not sure how the South will go. Mr. Huckabee is out of money and can’t move much beyond the Deep South, although he will probably try to make a push at Missouri (58 winner take all delegates) to keep himself viable. However, victory is not assured for him anywhere other than Arkansas (34 delegates).

Other Super Tuesday states and their standings are as follows:

Georgia – 72 delegates
Illinois – 70 delegates
Tennessee – 55 delegates
Alabama – 48 delegates
Colorado – 46 delegates
Minnesota – 41 delegates
Oklahoma – 41 delegates
West Virginia – 30 delegates
Alaska – 29 delegates
North Dakota – 26 delegates
Montana – 25 delegates (WTA)
Delaware – 18 delegates (WTA)

Maine has their primary on Friday (2/1) for 21 delegates. Taking an average 40% split of the loose delegates and most of the WTA delegates and Mr. McCain could walk away from Super Tuesday with anywhere from 500 to 600 delegates. Conversely, Mr. Romney is looking at a prize of only 300 to 350 delegates unless he can somehow dislodge Mr. McCain from the northeast. Thus, by next week, Mr. McCain will probably have a 2-1 advantage in the delegate count and have over half of the total needed to secure the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Edwards is dropping out. Its difficult to say whom this will help, but it does mean that the Democrats will probably select a nominee before the convention. So the media’s pipe dream will disappear, but it could still be a very vicious, nasty battle before things are all said and done.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

One Side Crystalizing

Well things are going to get a little more interesting after today. Not on the Democratic side though. Ms. Clinton will probably win Florida by a reasonable margin due to her actually spending a little time in the state (despite it having no delegates). This will be her attempt to change the news story, trying to get the bad taste of her 28-point loss in South Carolina and loss of the Kennedy endorsement out of her mouth. I don’t think she will be that successful though.

On the Republican side, things could be very interesting. Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney are neck and neck and will probably finish within a few points of each other. This will be a devastating blow to Mr. Giuliani who may withdraw before Super Tuesday just to avoid the humiliation of possibly losing New York to Mr. McCain. If Mr. Romney is to win tonight, he will have to maintain a 3-5 point lead through the early returns and most of the night. The heavily Cuban-American counties around Miami are usually the last to report and Mr. McCain will probably win those decisively. So if Mr. McCain is leading or only down by 1-2 points, before those areas report, he will most likely win Florida.

If Mr. McCain wins Florida, he will probably all but lock the nomination. Even if he loses, he will probably get major delegate draws, if not outright state wins, from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, and California. These states alone could provide him with one-quarter of the delegates needed to win the nomination and a victory in Florida will probably make him even more viable in other states.

If Mr. Romney wins, he can compete harder in other states in addition to sitting on wins in Utah and Massachusetts. A Florida win will give the impression of momentum that Mr. Romney could use to rack up delegate totals similar to Mr. McCain and try to make it two-man fight heading into the later states of Texas and Ohio.

One significant problem for Mr. Romney though is the fact that when Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Huckabee drop out of the race, they will likely release their delegates in favor of Mr. McCain, with whom they have been cordial. Mr. Romney’s relationship with the rest of the field has been rather unpleasant, much of it originating with his early descent into mud slinging.

If Mr. McCain does win in Florida and then use that to essentially secure the nomination on Super Tuesday, speculation will immediately turn to whom he will pick as his running mate. My early money would be on Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida. Mr. McCain would draw the greatest strength in picking a Southern Governor. He is already known to be very friendly and respectful of Mr. Crist, even helping him at a rally to elect Mr. Crist as governor. Mr. Crist is also well liked in Florida and very popular with the African-American community. I personally can’t think of a better fit for Mr. McCain at the moment.

Returning to the Democratic side, it is quite clear that Super Tuesday will not decide anything for them. The nightmare scenario for them (and the dream for the media) is that Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama each draw roughly 40% of the delegates each and the remaining 20% are taken by Mr. Edwards. This trend would mean that with over half the states decided, Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama will have not come anywhere close to securing the nomination and Mr. Edwards gets to sit back and make himself kingmaker. This will also allow him to bargain for a major position within the new administration. There is even a remote possibility that once the first ballot fails at the convention that Mr. Edwards is able to convince the delegates that he is the best candidate to defeat the Republican contender. But this would mean 5-6 months of Democratic infighting while the Republican candidate sits back and just makes himself look presidential.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Post Wolverine

So now Mitt Romney has won Michigan, a state he grew up in and on a day where many Independents stayed home due to snowy conditions. Mr. McCain won a solid second place and spun things that it’s hard to overcome a favorite son candidate. This may be true, but its also true that many people in Michigan didn’t like hearing that the auto manufacturer jobs aren’t coming back and need to be replaced by other jobs. People want to hear that the jobs they like and are used to, are coming back, which is what Mr. Romney seemed to be selling the people.

Things now take an interesting turn as we move into South Carolina. Mr. Romney flew from Michigan to Nevada so he is essentially ceding probably a fourth place finish at best in South Carolina. That leaves a race between Mr. McCain, Mr. Huckabee, and Mr. Thompson. Mr. McCain has been polling in first place, with Mr. Huckabee second, and Mr. Thompson running third. However, there is a large undecided faction and Mr. Thompson has been working the state harder than the other two, who were distracted by Michigan. It is not out of the question that Mr. Thompson could surge ahead and win South Carolina. That would please Mr. Giuliani who needs McCain to take another defeat and clear things for him in Florida.

However, Mr. McCain does have a large network in South Carolina and Sen. Lindsey Graham working for him, so a McCain victory in South Carolina is possible. I’m betting that Mr. Huckabee’s distant third place showing in Michigan will hurt him in South Carolina, especially with Mr. Thompson’s highlights of his liberal record.

Given that, I lean towards two outcomes for the South Carolina race. A Thompson win throws the race into additional chaos, could give Mr. Giuliani the momentum going into Super Tuesday with a Florida win. If Mr. McCain wins, he could use that to eke out a win in Florida. That will practically destroy Mr. Giuliani and cripple Mr. Romney. Mr. McCain would then only have to deal with either Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Thompson, whichever one of them emerges from the south with the most wins.

On the Democratic side, Ms. Clinton won against undecided, but not quite by the margin that she should have (55-40). What’s more, exit polls suggest that she is losing the African-American vote by a startlingly large amount. This recent tiff with Mr. Obama on race has not been flattering to her. All the good she earned from the New Hampshire win will evaporate if she loses South Carolina and Nevada. Mr. Obama is averaging a 10-point lead in South Carolina at the moment and appears to be up by 2 in Nevada. Nevada will be the watched race on the donkey side come Saturday.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

Primary Betting

Well, Ms. Clinton got her comeback kid moment and unlike her husband’s self anointed version, this one seemed to be legitimate. What this will mean first and foremost is that Edwards is a dead candidate (unless he wins South Carolina – unlikely) and that the Democratic race is going to stay a two-person race for a while. Delegates in Democratic primaries are allotted based on congressional districts so if Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama continue to beat each other and go back and forth in wins, the two of them will have a nearly the same number of regular delegates come convention time. This means that the Superdelegates, who are congressmen and other Democratic bigwigs who are allowed to decide on their own, decide the race. Ms. Clinton has a large advantage among those at the moment. Ultimately, the Democratic race might not be decided until the primaries are effectively wrapped up.

On the Republican side, things aren’t quite so simple. Republican primaries tend to be more winner-take-all affairs and any one candidate who can squeak through will decimate his rivals quickly. At the moment, things favor Mr. McCain very well. Michigan is the next primary and because Michigan moved things up, the Democratic Party pulled the Michigan delegates and the candidates were removed from the ballot, except for Ms. Clinton for some reason. This means that all the independents that would normally have to decide between voting Democrat and Republican now have no real choices on the Democratic side. A large volume of independent voters favors Mr. McCain who does very well among that group.

If Mr. McCain pulls out a victory in Michigan, it will destroy Mr. Romney and could give him enough push to take South Carolina. South Carolina is not as evangelical heavy as Iowa was and Mr. McCain’s strong organization and popularity there could counter Mr. Huckabee’s seeming advantage as a southern governor. The only real question is who Mr. Thompson steals votes away from in this primary. He will do well, but still may only finish third, but he could have a strong impact on who actually wins the race.

If Mr. McCain wins South Carolina, it will probably only be a two-person race by that point. If Mr. McCain could use that momentum to take Florida or a majority of the Super Tuesday states, the race will be over. This is a long shot but its possible. If Mr. Huckabee wins South Carolina, he will stick around longer and Mr. McCain’s chances of ending it quickly will be gone. Instead, it will be a dogfight between those two and Mr. Giuliani. But, at the very least, I think the race will whittle down to no more than three credible candidates before the Super Tuesday primaries.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

One Possible Solution

I’m a little late in formulating my thoughts on this, but a discussion I heard on Mike & Mike this morning jarred my memory. Much discussion has been made regarding a playoff for Div. 1-A football and how that would work with the bowls and how to fit it all in and so forth. Well, I’ve come up with a reasonable idea, although I’m sure many others have come up with something similar.

My thought involves keeping the BCS rankings to determine seeding for 8 teams: the 6 major conference winners and two at-large berths. We could even keep the stipulation regarding Notre Dame and the minor conference bowls automatic berth if they finish in the top 12 of the BCS ranks. Based on this past year, the seeds would have most likely been: (1) Ohio St., (2) LSU, (3) Georgia, (4) Virginia Tech, (5) USC, (6) Oklahoma, (7) West Virginia, and (8) Hawaii. We might quibble over placement based off what we know now, but at the end of the regular season, this was pretty much how things were going to line up.

Now that we have seeds, they match up 1-8 in four bowl games that are placed around Christmas. Colleges will all be off by then and these four games will be given exclusive airing around the 23rd or the 24th depending on where this would fall relative to NFL football. For this past year, you could have loaded up Christmas Eve with the bowl games since it was a Monday and would not have been heavy with NFL games. What’s more, I think the four bowl games should be geographically oriented with the top four seeds allowed to select the bowl of their choice.

My initial thought has been that the first round bowl games would be something like the Holiday Bowl (San Diego), the Cotton Bowl (Dallas), the Liberty Bowl (Memphis), and the Motor City Bowl (Detroit). All of these either play in NFL stadiums or are large venues used to handling huge crowds. The top four seeds could then pick the venue they think would be the most favorable to them. So, in our mythical scenario, Ohio St. would have selected the Motor City Bowl and played Hawaii; LSU would have selected the Cotton Bowl and played West Virginia, Georgia would have selected the Liberty Bowl and played Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech would have been left with the Holiday Bowl and played USC (an ironic, nasty twist for them).

Once the first round was finished, the remaining for teams would have met in two New Year’s Bowls. I’m inclined towards the Sugar and the Fiesta, but I’m sure the Orange wouldn’t mind. The Rose would probably opt out of the whole thing so that it could at least have the Pac 10 #2 vs. the Big 10 #2. Let’s say that the winners of the previous four games were Ohio St., LSU, Georgia, and USC. Ohio St. could have matched up against USC in the Fiesta Bowl and LSU would have taken Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The two winners would have then faced off in the National Championship Bowl Game as they do now, about a week after New Year’s. I think it would have been USC vs. LSU and I personally think that USC would have won, but I think everyone would have been satisfied with the result. I think this is the best option. It allows the bowls to stay in place and also works in a bit of a playoff. Obviously some teams would be left out (like Missouri and Kansas) but those things happen in any playoff scenario.

Some might argue that the great games such as the 2002 Ohio St.-Miami or 2005 USC-Texas would have been lost, but under this scenario, there is no reason to believe that having a playoff would have reduced the chance that these teams would not have met in the finals. As the 1 and 2 seeds, they would have been at the opposite ends of the bracket anyway. It would also have settled things regarding the undefeated Auburn team that should have gotten a crack at things in 2004.

Some of the other bowl games would have to be restructured to account for the losses that the first round games would be in, but hopefully the same number of smaller conference teams would be allowed in and we wouldn’t have to worry about the #6 Big 10 team vs. the #5 Big East team (games that very few watch anyway).

The current system is in place until 2010, but I’m hoping that something like this will get developed starting in the 2011.