One Side Crystalizing

Well things are going to get a little more interesting after today. Not on the Democratic side though. Ms. Clinton will probably win Florida by a reasonable margin due to her actually spending a little time in the state (despite it having no delegates). This will be her attempt to change the news story, trying to get the bad taste of her 28-point loss in South Carolina and loss of the Kennedy endorsement out of her mouth. I don’t think she will be that successful though.

On the Republican side, things could be very interesting. Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney are neck and neck and will probably finish within a few points of each other. This will be a devastating blow to Mr. Giuliani who may withdraw before Super Tuesday just to avoid the humiliation of possibly losing New York to Mr. McCain. If Mr. Romney is to win tonight, he will have to maintain a 3-5 point lead through the early returns and most of the night. The heavily Cuban-American counties around Miami are usually the last to report and Mr. McCain will probably win those decisively. So if Mr. McCain is leading or only down by 1-2 points, before those areas report, he will most likely win Florida.

If Mr. McCain wins Florida, he will probably all but lock the nomination. Even if he loses, he will probably get major delegate draws, if not outright state wins, from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, and California. These states alone could provide him with one-quarter of the delegates needed to win the nomination and a victory in Florida will probably make him even more viable in other states.

If Mr. Romney wins, he can compete harder in other states in addition to sitting on wins in Utah and Massachusetts. A Florida win will give the impression of momentum that Mr. Romney could use to rack up delegate totals similar to Mr. McCain and try to make it two-man fight heading into the later states of Texas and Ohio.

One significant problem for Mr. Romney though is the fact that when Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Huckabee drop out of the race, they will likely release their delegates in favor of Mr. McCain, with whom they have been cordial. Mr. Romney’s relationship with the rest of the field has been rather unpleasant, much of it originating with his early descent into mud slinging.

If Mr. McCain does win in Florida and then use that to essentially secure the nomination on Super Tuesday, speculation will immediately turn to whom he will pick as his running mate. My early money would be on Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida. Mr. McCain would draw the greatest strength in picking a Southern Governor. He is already known to be very friendly and respectful of Mr. Crist, even helping him at a rally to elect Mr. Crist as governor. Mr. Crist is also well liked in Florida and very popular with the African-American community. I personally can’t think of a better fit for Mr. McCain at the moment.

Returning to the Democratic side, it is quite clear that Super Tuesday will not decide anything for them. The nightmare scenario for them (and the dream for the media) is that Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama each draw roughly 40% of the delegates each and the remaining 20% are taken by Mr. Edwards. This trend would mean that with over half the states decided, Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama will have not come anywhere close to securing the nomination and Mr. Edwards gets to sit back and make himself kingmaker. This will also allow him to bargain for a major position within the new administration. There is even a remote possibility that once the first ballot fails at the convention that Mr. Edwards is able to convince the delegates that he is the best candidate to defeat the Republican contender. But this would mean 5-6 months of Democratic infighting while the Republican candidate sits back and just makes himself look presidential.