Primary Betting

Well, Ms. Clinton got her comeback kid moment and unlike her husband’s self anointed version, this one seemed to be legitimate. What this will mean first and foremost is that Edwards is a dead candidate (unless he wins South Carolina – unlikely) and that the Democratic race is going to stay a two-person race for a while. Delegates in Democratic primaries are allotted based on congressional districts so if Ms. Clinton and Mr. Obama continue to beat each other and go back and forth in wins, the two of them will have a nearly the same number of regular delegates come convention time. This means that the Superdelegates, who are congressmen and other Democratic bigwigs who are allowed to decide on their own, decide the race. Ms. Clinton has a large advantage among those at the moment. Ultimately, the Democratic race might not be decided until the primaries are effectively wrapped up.

On the Republican side, things aren’t quite so simple. Republican primaries tend to be more winner-take-all affairs and any one candidate who can squeak through will decimate his rivals quickly. At the moment, things favor Mr. McCain very well. Michigan is the next primary and because Michigan moved things up, the Democratic Party pulled the Michigan delegates and the candidates were removed from the ballot, except for Ms. Clinton for some reason. This means that all the independents that would normally have to decide between voting Democrat and Republican now have no real choices on the Democratic side. A large volume of independent voters favors Mr. McCain who does very well among that group.

If Mr. McCain pulls out a victory in Michigan, it will destroy Mr. Romney and could give him enough push to take South Carolina. South Carolina is not as evangelical heavy as Iowa was and Mr. McCain’s strong organization and popularity there could counter Mr. Huckabee’s seeming advantage as a southern governor. The only real question is who Mr. Thompson steals votes away from in this primary. He will do well, but still may only finish third, but he could have a strong impact on who actually wins the race.

If Mr. McCain wins South Carolina, it will probably only be a two-person race by that point. If Mr. McCain could use that momentum to take Florida or a majority of the Super Tuesday states, the race will be over. This is a long shot but its possible. If Mr. Huckabee wins South Carolina, he will stick around longer and Mr. McCain’s chances of ending it quickly will be gone. Instead, it will be a dogfight between those two and Mr. Giuliani. But, at the very least, I think the race will whittle down to no more than three credible candidates before the Super Tuesday primaries.