Two Elephants, Two Donkeys

Well, it is all but over for the Republican primaries. Mr. McCain won Florida by 5 points and that seems like a significant margin to me. What’s more, Mr. Giuliani pulled out and is going to endorse McCain. Not all of Mr. Giuliani’s supporters will flock to Mr. McCain, but enough of them will that the lead will be padded a bit, especially in the northeast states of Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which are all winner take all (total 183 delegates). Mr. McCain also has a sizable lead in California and will probably take a majority of those delegates (173) in addition to winner-take-all Arizona (53).

Mr. Romney will probably win Utah and Massachusetts, however Massachusetts is not a winner take all (Utah is) and he will have to split those 43 delegates with Mr. McCain. I’m not sure how the South will go. Mr. Huckabee is out of money and can’t move much beyond the Deep South, although he will probably try to make a push at Missouri (58 winner take all delegates) to keep himself viable. However, victory is not assured for him anywhere other than Arkansas (34 delegates).

Other Super Tuesday states and their standings are as follows:

Georgia – 72 delegates
Illinois – 70 delegates
Tennessee – 55 delegates
Alabama – 48 delegates
Colorado – 46 delegates
Minnesota – 41 delegates
Oklahoma – 41 delegates
West Virginia – 30 delegates
Alaska – 29 delegates
North Dakota – 26 delegates
Montana – 25 delegates (WTA)
Delaware – 18 delegates (WTA)

Maine has their primary on Friday (2/1) for 21 delegates. Taking an average 40% split of the loose delegates and most of the WTA delegates and Mr. McCain could walk away from Super Tuesday with anywhere from 500 to 600 delegates. Conversely, Mr. Romney is looking at a prize of only 300 to 350 delegates unless he can somehow dislodge Mr. McCain from the northeast. Thus, by next week, Mr. McCain will probably have a 2-1 advantage in the delegate count and have over half of the total needed to secure the nomination.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Edwards is dropping out. Its difficult to say whom this will help, but it does mean that the Democrats will probably select a nominee before the convention. So the media’s pipe dream will disappear, but it could still be a very vicious, nasty battle before things are all said and done.