Post Wolverine

So now Mitt Romney has won Michigan, a state he grew up in and on a day where many Independents stayed home due to snowy conditions. Mr. McCain won a solid second place and spun things that it’s hard to overcome a favorite son candidate. This may be true, but its also true that many people in Michigan didn’t like hearing that the auto manufacturer jobs aren’t coming back and need to be replaced by other jobs. People want to hear that the jobs they like and are used to, are coming back, which is what Mr. Romney seemed to be selling the people.

Things now take an interesting turn as we move into South Carolina. Mr. Romney flew from Michigan to Nevada so he is essentially ceding probably a fourth place finish at best in South Carolina. That leaves a race between Mr. McCain, Mr. Huckabee, and Mr. Thompson. Mr. McCain has been polling in first place, with Mr. Huckabee second, and Mr. Thompson running third. However, there is a large undecided faction and Mr. Thompson has been working the state harder than the other two, who were distracted by Michigan. It is not out of the question that Mr. Thompson could surge ahead and win South Carolina. That would please Mr. Giuliani who needs McCain to take another defeat and clear things for him in Florida.

However, Mr. McCain does have a large network in South Carolina and Sen. Lindsey Graham working for him, so a McCain victory in South Carolina is possible. I’m betting that Mr. Huckabee’s distant third place showing in Michigan will hurt him in South Carolina, especially with Mr. Thompson’s highlights of his liberal record.

Given that, I lean towards two outcomes for the South Carolina race. A Thompson win throws the race into additional chaos, could give Mr. Giuliani the momentum going into Super Tuesday with a Florida win. If Mr. McCain wins, he could use that to eke out a win in Florida. That will practically destroy Mr. Giuliani and cripple Mr. Romney. Mr. McCain would then only have to deal with either Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Thompson, whichever one of them emerges from the south with the most wins.

On the Democratic side, Ms. Clinton won against undecided, but not quite by the margin that she should have (55-40). What’s more, exit polls suggest that she is losing the African-American vote by a startlingly large amount. This recent tiff with Mr. Obama on race has not been flattering to her. All the good she earned from the New Hampshire win will evaporate if she loses South Carolina and Nevada. Mr. Obama is averaging a 10-point lead in South Carolina at the moment and appears to be up by 2 in Nevada. Nevada will be the watched race on the donkey side come Saturday.