Nevada Surrenders

After my hype and hysteria, Nevada has surrendered to the whims of the National Republican Committee. Not only did they abandon their originally planned caucus date of January 14, but they actually fully complied with the RNC's request and moved the date behind Florida to Saturday, Feb. 4.

With Nevada out of the way, New Hampshire will almost certainly take January 10 as their primary date, a week after Iowa's locked in date of January 3. As such, the dates should be as follows:

January 3 (Tuesday) - Iowa
January 10 (Tuesday) - New Hampshire
January 21 (Saturday) - South Carolina
January 31 (Tuesday) - Florida
February 4 (Saturday) - Nevada
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota, Non-binding Missouri Primary
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri Caucus
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 12 (Tuesday) - Ohio
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah

Ohio Election Games

The primaries are currently scheduled in Ohio for March 6 (Super Tuesday). However, the recent appeal from a petition group that wants to put the 2012 Congressional Districts on the Nov. 2012 ballot has thrown a wrench into things. Since there is a possibility that no one will know what the districts look like for the 2013 Congress, the Ohio legislature is looking to buy itself more time in trying to figure out what to do.

To accomplish this, the Ohio Senate passed a bill yesterday that keeps nearly all the primaries in March. But it moves the Congressional and Presidential primaries to June 12. Why the Presidential primaries? Because of the way Ohio allocates delegates to the Republican Party convention, which rely on Congressional District vote totals to apportion the delegates from each district.

This bill still has to pass the House and then be signed by the Governor. However, with the likelihood of the Congressional Districts being unresolved in the next few weeks, postponement is a very likely possibility. For the Democrats this is no big deal as there is only one person on their ballot. But for the Republicans, this is rather annoying as it is highly likely that the contest will be decided by June. In March there would have still been some uncertainty as the race will probably have started to reduce itself to a Romney vs. not-Romney contest (with Mr. Cain and Mr. Perry being the strongest vyers for this role at the moment). But, such is life.

Once the dust is settled here and between New Hampshire and Nevada (Iowa has now locked fully in to Jan. 3 as their caucus date), I'll repost the dates so we can get a bead on when we can start to figure who will be challenging Mr. Obama next year.

One final note, it is looking as though Nevada may back down and reschedule their caucus for Tuesday Jan. 17. That would give enough space between contests that New Hampshire would then insert itself into the Jan. 10 spot. This has not been officially confirmed yet though.

Palmer to Oakland

Carson Palmer has been traded to the Oakland Raiders. In return the Bengals will get the Raiders first round pick of the 2012 draft and the Raiders second round pick of 2013. If the Raiders make the playoffs and win a game before the 2013 draft, the second round pick will be upgraded to a first round pick.

This is probably the best deal for Palmer where he will be able to jump in immediately and the coach of the Oakland Raiders, Hue Jackson, was a coach of Palmer's at USC and the Wide Receivers coach for the Bengals. Even better, it makes Mike Brown eat his words. Now, we just have to see what the Bengals do with these two picks.

Volcano in the Canaries

The El Hierro volcano is currently erupting about a half mile below the ocean's surface. El Hierro is the smallest and Westernmost of the Canary Islands and has been experiencing massive earthquake swarms since July.

Yesterday there was a 4.3 earthquake that has opened a fissure in the rock and something is erupting out of it. At the moment, scientists haven't been able to determine if it's lava or gas.

The primary danger is to the residents themselves. However, there is a secondary danger. If the eruption continues and becomes large scale, it could cause a partial collapse of the island. If this were to happen, the resultant impact could generate a tsunami that would impact the East Coast of North America (potentially significantly in places like Virginia and Florida).

We'll see if anything happens.

Just About Set

Things are just about ready to go for the Republican Primaries. With the announcements of Mr. Christie and Mrs. Palin that they are not running, the field of candidates looks to be locked in to what we have. Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry will be considered the favorites and awarded frontrunner status by The Powers That Be. Mr. Cain will probably be set in tier 1A, close to the front but not quite of their caliber. Everyone else will be considered to be behind those three unless they make a big splash in the earlier primaries.

Speaking of the primaries, the calendar is almost set as well. Nevada announced yesterday that they have set their caucus for January 14. That puts a full week between them and South Carolina (January 21) with another 10 days before the Florida primary January 31).

The only remaining states are New Hampshire and Iowa. The main problem is that New Hampshire actually has a law on their books specifying that their primary must be held at least a week before the next primary or caucus (Nevada). This now means that to comply with New Hampshire law, the primary date must either be set on Saturday (January 7) or the next available Tuesday (January 3).

If New Hampshire opts for January 7, Iowa would probably take January 2 or 3, keeping everything in 2012 (barely). However, if New Hampshire opts for January 3, Iowa will vault itself into 2011 with the caucuses being held sometime in the week after Christmas. Christmas is on a Sunday this year so I wouldn't be surprised to see December 27 (Tuesday) being looked at as the target date.

For ease of reference, I've put together a map with the various states and what month their primaries and caucuses are. I didn't bother creating a new color for Iowa, assuming they fall in December. Most of the March contests (including Ohio) are being held on the 6th which is Super Tuesday.


The official dates for the 48 set sates (Republican contests only) are:
January 14 (Saturday) - Nevada
January 21 (Saturday) - South Carolina
January 31 (Tuesday) - Florida
February 4-11 - Maine Caucus
February 7 (Tuesday) - Colorado, Minnesota
February 28 (Tuesday) - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 (Saturday) - Washington
March 6 (Tuesday) - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
March 10 (Saturday) - Kansas
March 13 (Tuesday) - Alabama, Hawaii, Mississippi
March 17 (Saturday) - Missouri
March 20 (Tuesday) - Illinois
March 24 (Saturday) - Louisiana
April 3 (Tuesday) - Maryland, Washington DC, Wisconsin
April 24 (Tuesday) - Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
May 8 (Tuesday) - Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
May 15 (Tuesday) - Nebraska, Oregon
May 22 (Tuesday) - Arkansas, Kentucky
June 5 (Tuesday) - California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 26 (Tuesday) - Utah