Monday, December 17, 2007

Panic Time?

A few months ago, I wrote about which person Ms. Clinton should be picking as her running mate. Well, that seems to have been a bit premature. Mr. Obama seems to have passed his case of foot-in-mouth disease to Ms. Clinton, who has compounded it with a bad case of panic attack.

The wheels started to come off about 5 weeks ago when Ms. Clinton was caught in a flip-flop of position only 90 seconds after supporting the other position. She can thank the new governor of New York, Mr. Spitzer (D) for raising the issue (driver’s licenses for illegals) in the first place. Since then, Ms. Clinton’s team has gone nasty and attacked using the basest and meanest of tactics. As such, her lead in Iowa and New Hampshire is gone. Her lead is less than 8 points in South Carolina (some are as close as two) and Mr. Obama may soon pick up the endorsement of a major service union in Nevada. Ultimately, this could mean that Ms. Clinton loses three of the four (possibly even all four) of the first primary races. That could all but kill her chances even before the primary moves to the large states.

On the other side, Mr. Huckabee has surged. No one can quite tell how, but the current theory is that the Evangelical faction has latched on to him for his conservative social values (he’s a former pastor). This surge may sustain itself, or it may peter out. When examined closely, Mr. Huckabee is very vague on economic policy and his foreign policy seems to have been taken out of Mr. Jimmy Carter’s playbook, a position that won’t sit well at all with war crowd.

Mr. McCain has picked up some major endorsements and Mr. Giuliani still seems to be the consensus frontrunner, but things are very mixed up right now. Unlike the Democratic nomination, this will definitely not be over after the first four states. The real question is how long will all the candidates stick it out. It’s assumed that if he fails to win Iowa or New Hampshire, Mr. Romney will drop out. Mr. Giuliani seems to have put his bets on a later, big state strategy. If the Huckabee boom is a dud, will he last past Nevada? What of Mr. Thompson, who seems to be sitting anywhere from second to fourth in most of the early primaries? Only time will tell.

I can only say this, I have never voted for a third party candidate, but if it is an Obama vs. Huckabee race, I might think very seriously about it.

Go ahead! Throw your vote away! *Orwellian laughter*

Monday, November 26, 2007

Lifting Mists

In my haste to get back to projecting the major bowls, I completely forgot the rules that were introduced last year. The Sugar Bowl will host the National Championship game a week after the four BCS bowls play. In addition, no conference can have more than two teams in these five games and only the top 14 teams in the BCS poll are eligible. So the projections change a little bit. The BCS standings of eligible teams are as follows:

1. Missouri
2. West Virginia
3. Ohio St.
4. Georgia
5. Kansas
6. Virginia Tech
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Oklahoma
10. Florida
11. Boston College
12. Hawaii
13. Arizona St.
14. Tennessee

The conference champs and match-ups are as follows:

Big 10 – Ohio St.
Big East – West Virginia
ACC – Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Big 12 – Missouri vs. Oklahoma
SEC – LSU vs. Tennessee
Pac 10 – USC (if they beat UCLA, else Arizona St. (if they beat Arizona) or UCLA)

The big question is whether or not Missouri will beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. That is the one factor that will determine if the National Championship is West Virginia vs. Missouri or West Virginia vs. Ohio St. West Virginia still has to play Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is a very poor team this year and the game is at Morgantown so West Virginia has all the advantages.

If Missouri does win, the bowl projections will probably look something like this:

National Title – Missouri vs. West Virginia
Sugar – LSU vs. Hawaii
Orange – Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Rose – Ohio St. vs. USC
Fiesta – Kansas vs. Arizona St.

Georgia, Kansas are in as they are now finished and can only move up in the rankings (the top six poll spots are automatic berths). Hawaii is guaranteed in if they beat Washington, as any non-BCS school that finishes in the top 12 must be granted a berth. This only leaves one at-large spot available. The Big East is not officially tied to a Bowl game (although traditionally the Big East Champ has gone to the Orange Bowl) so only the Fiesta would get an early selection based on the loss of the Big 12 champ. If Arizona St. beats Arizona then the Sun Devils will be high enough in the BCS standings to warrant selection and the possibility of taking a local team will be quite agreeable to the Fiesta folks. The Orange automatically takes the ACC champ and will probably opt for Georgia as they are close and their fans travel well. The Rose gets its traditional Big 10-Pac 10 match up while the Fiesta opts for Kansas over Hawaii. The Sugar then gets the SEC champ and is stuck with Hawaii.

The other major twist is if Missouri loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Ohio St. then vaults up and the equation shifts, as it will be the Rose Bowl with the free pick. Illinois is sitting at #15 and will probably move up due to teams above losing their various title games. The Rose Bowl will then probably move to keep its Big 10-Pac 10 match up and select Illinois as the one remaining at-large. Thus the standings would be as follows:

National Title – Ohio St. vs. West Virginia
Sugar – LSU vs. Kansas
Orange – Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Rose – Illinois vs. USC
Fiesta – Oklahoma vs. Hawaii.

The Fiesta Bowl, faced with the possibility of an all Big 12 match up, might opt for Hawaii over Kansas. But Missouri would drop out as they would drop below Kansas in the polls and only two Big 12 teams are allowed. The thing that might upset the Rose Bowl’s plans to take Illinois would be if both the SEC and the ACC title game are upsets and LSU and Virginia Tech fall in the polls, but stay ahead of Illinois (keeping them at #15 in the standings). If this happened, the Rose would probably decide between Hawaii and Kansas, leaving the Fiesta free to take Arizona St.

If Hawaii loses to Washington, they drop out of the BCS picture and Arizona St. and Illinois’ chances look much brighter.

Monday, November 19, 2007

Bowl Game Headaches

So this is about the time of year that we start plotting who is going to what BCS bowl game. Except that it’s not going to be that easy this year. At the moment, the top 10 teams are:

1. LSU
2. Kansas (undefeated)
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Ohio St. (finished regular season)
6. Arizona St.
7. Georgia
8. Virginia Tech
9. Oregon
10. Oklahoma

One still cannot predict anything from this list because at least two of these teams will still play each other. Next week Kansas will face Missouri for the Big 12 North crown. After that, the winner will probably play Oklahoma for the overall Big 12 title. LSU and Georgia will also probably square off for the SEC crown (there is a small possibility that Tennessee could get in ahead of Georgia but LSU has already won the SEC West).

The headaches get even bigger when you look at bowl order selection. The national title game is the Sugar Bowl this year. Once the Sugar has taken its two picks, it would normally go Orange, Rose, and then Fiesta. If the Sugar takes from another bowl’s rightful selection (like the Fiesta’s Big 12 champion), then that bowl gets a replacement pick before the other bowls make their picks.

For example, if the list stays the same and LSU wins the SEC and Kansas wins the Big 12, both would go to the Sugar Bowl to face each other. The Sugar Bowl is the nominal bowl for the SEC champ, but the Fiesta would then get a pick to replace Kansas before the selection moves to the Orange. It is possible, that the Fiesta could take Ohio St. (whom they have had 4 times in the last 7 years), rather than letting the Rose Bowl have its traditional Big 10-Pac 10 match up.

Then you have the chaos that comes from upsets coming around. If LSU loses next week to Arkansas, they could still win the SEC, but no longer be in the title game, or Georgia could win the SEC title and be too low in the standings to get to the title game. Kansas could defeat Missouri, but lose to Oklahoma (or Texas if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St.) in the Big 12 title game. West Virginia still has to face off against UConn and Pitt and could easily lose either of those games (more likely to UConn). These loses would vault Ohio St. back up to no. 1 or 2 and put them in the title game. Much the same could go for Arizona St. as well.

But, for the moment, we’ll take the easy path and try to plot based on everyone winning what they are supposed to:

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Kansas
Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech.
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Missouri
Rose Bowl: Arizona St. vs. Florida

Florida and Missouri are complete guesses on my part based on the current polls and who would lose in certain match ups. Texas could replace Missouri if Missouri gets beaten badly by Kansas and drops far in the polls. I’m also assuming that Virginia Tech beats Virginia next week and then beats BC in the ACC title game.

Next week will give us a firmer picture, but there is still a very reasonable possibility that Ohio St. could be the title game. In fact, there is even a chance that the Rose Bowl’s Big 10-Pac 10 match up could end up in the Sugar Bowl as the title game if the cards fell right. But that would require a lot of shifting around.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Preparing the Hooks

Sorry about the long layoff. Things have been busy at work and it’s been hard to think of things to write about while giving them my own twist. Recapping the woes of the Bengals and offering predictions about the World Series don’t give a lot of source material. Although, a Cleveland-Denver World Series would provide a couple of interesting talking points.

But, what finally drew me out of my malaise is the mutual defense pact signed by Russia, Iran, and the various –stans around the Caspian Sea. Russia has even upped the ante by pledging significant assistance to aiding Iran complete their nuclear reactor. President Bush has apparently gone so far as to say that if Iran goes nuclear, global war would occur (presumably he is referring to Iran’s planned strike against Israel).

On top of this, Turkey is seething about both Congress’ proposed condemnation of the Armenian Massacre and Iraq’s failure to stop Kurdish terrorists from crossing the border. Given that Iran also hates the Kurds, Europe is telling them to get lost, and Russia is planning major energy developments (including a huge oil and gas pipeline) in the area, its really only a matter of time before Turkey joins in with this Russo-Persian alliance. Turkey having also just swept Islamist parties into office should make the alliance with Iran that much more palatable.

Meanwhile, Iran is supporting Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian factions within Israel. They have pacts of mutual understanding with the Islamic government of Sudan and there have been rumors of a reach out to Libya as well, with a promise to restore the nuclear program Libya gave up to a US bluff.

All of this equates to a very nasty situation brewing. At the moment, the alliances are still forming and I also believe that this grand alliance would prefer to attack economically first (Russia and Iran’s ties with China make that possibility much more formidable). However, while the US might sit with their head in the sand, the Israeli military does not appear to willing to take that chance. Despite Olmert’s boobery, the military as well as the conservative parties (even members of Labor as well) are forming plans for a significant strike against Iran. The destruction of the Syrian nuclear installation was most likely a dry run against Iran as well as an actual hit against Syria. In the end, Israel might do what the US is unwilling to and that is try to cripple the Iranian threat. But if it does, that would activate the Russo-Persian alliance and could bring the full wrath of Gog against them. I’m not sure the US has the political will to stand up for Israel in the face of such a retaliation, especially if we are still stretched thin across Iraq and Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, we are not dealing with fully rational people here so I do not see any way to avoid a major conflict within Israel sometime in the next couple of years. I’ve read on several boards that Putin doesn’t have the stomach to pull the trigger. I disagree. I think the threat is very real and very dangerous.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Democratic VP Sweepstakes

Ever since Barak Obama made a few foot in mouth moments a few weeks ago, the feeling around the country is that Hillary Clinton is steadily solidifying her base and will secure the Democratic nomination. Granted, major gaffes are still possible to open doors for other candidates, but most of the Democratic field has been hurting themselves in one way or another, leaving Ms. Clinton in the dominant power position.

As such, talk among political activists has started to turn from who will win the Democratic nomination to who will Ms. Clinton choose as her running mate. Many pundits have argued that Ms. Clinton should take Mr. Obama as her running mate. A little while ago that might have seemed like a good idea, but his recent mistakes have made him appear to be a political lightweight. His other attributes are of no need to Ms. Clinton. She already has good inroads with the African-American community through her husband and the Democratic candidate is probably going to win Illinois anyway so there is no need to bring in the senator from that state. Ms. Clinton having been raised in Illinois doesn’t hurt her chances in that state as well.

So, who does that leave? There are several choices being bantered about right now. The first is to take a strong southern Democrat. No Democratic ticket has won without a southerner since 1944 and one could make arguments that Truman would have qualified as a southerner being from Missouri (a border state). The problem with this is that there are no real strong southern Democrats. Most have been wiped out by the relentless Republican attacks to strengthen their base. Probably the only viable candidate is Mark Warner, former governor of Virginia and he is unlikely to buy Ms. Clinton much outside of Virginia. Indeed, even his selection might not be enough to carry Virginia into the Democratic column.

Option two would be to take another also ran: Bill Richardson of New Mexico. This would probably swing New Mexico back into the Democratic column and make some strong inroads into the Hispanic community. Conversely, Mr. Richardson has had some personal scandals that have hurt him lately. He also is not overly popular with the strongly liberal set as he is a bit more to the center than other candidates (with exceptions in immigration and health care). But probably the biggest problem is that Hispanics do not vote in large blocks the way African-American voters do. So picking a Hispanic candidate does not motivate large groups to your side the way other constituencies would. Plus, the option of a Hispanic over an African-American might alienate large percentages of the African-American block, leading them to abstain or vote third party (possibly even Republican in some critical areas).

Option three would be former governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa. Iowa narrowly went Republican last election and Mr. Vilsack is very popular there. In addition to Iowa, the selection of an upper Midwest governor might enable the Democrats to secure their sagging flanks in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Wisconsin almost went Republican in 2004 and there have been strong rumors that only voter fraud is what prevented it from swinging. There are additional rumors that if Mr. Kerry had challenged the Ohio vote, Mr. Bush would have challenged Wisconsin, undermining Mr. Kerry’s attack. Even Minnesota did not vote as heavily Democratic as it has in the past and the Republicans are hosting their convention in Minneapolis (under the auspices of a Republican governor who is considered to be a strong VP choice). The selection of Mr. Vilsack might help secure these three states and give the Democrats additional play in the plain states.

Option four would be to try for a magic bullet. If the Democrats can hold the states that Mr. Kerry won in 2004, Ms. Clinton would only need 18 electoral votes to win. This means that her primary focus of attack is going to be Ohio and Florida. Florida has a lot of former New York residents (to say nothing of elderly people) who might be strongly influenced by Ms. Clinton’s populist message. The selection of a Florida Democrat as VP might swing the state just enough to the Democratic side.

Ohio is an even better target though than Florida. The victory margin for Mr. Bush was quite narrow in 2004 and voters threw out the corrupt Republican regime wholesale in 2006. Ohio has a strong potential to trend Democrat, especially if Ms. Clinton can make any hay out of job losses that have hit the state. She also could try to select an Ohio politician to secure it. But, like Florida and most of the south, there aren’t many strong Democrats to choose from. If he hadn’t just been elected a year ago, Gov. Strickland might have been a good choice. But he and all the other Democrats in power are a bit wet behind the ears for a VP slot.

Out of all the options, I think Mr. Vilsack is probably the best choice. He will secure Iowa (bringing 7 electoral votes back into the Democratic column) and should help offset Democratic weakness in the Midwest. With that, Ms. Clinton can march around to secure the states that Mr. Kerry won and then pour every last dollar and ounce of strength she has to spare into taking either Florida or Ohio (I’m betting Ohio will take the principle focus). Only if she is facing Mr. Giuliani will she have to worry about any flack in New York or Michigan. Most other Republican candidates will not fare too well up in those areas.

So the board is set and the opening moves are just about over for the Democrats, barring a nasty surprise. Thus we move into the VP sweepstakes and then the full game.

Thursday, July 26, 2007

I'm an Uncle

My sister Mrs. S has finally given birth to my nephew after going into the hospital late Tuesday morning. Things were a bit complicated and he didn't want to seem to come out so they eventually extracted him by C-section this morning. He seems to be doing well although my sister is apparently very out of it. I'm hoping her husband gets a chance to post some pictures soon.

On another note, the casting rumors I posted yesterday have been debunked by Mugglenet so please disregard.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Deathly Hallows Thoughts - Spoiler Warning!

So the final Harry Potter novel was released this weekend. Mrs. X was very excited and as it was a very nice day outside, we happened to be outside playing with Toddler X when it arrived in the mail. She finished in about 24 hours, but this is also with sleeping and attending a little shindig with some former office co-workers. So I actually got to start reading the book before she had finished it.

Overall, I would say that it is a very good book. Very different from the six previous works, but I don’t think anyone would be overly surprised by that. Voldemort is not going to quietly die off while Harry preps for his NEWTs and captains Gryffindor to another Quidditch Championship. Instead, we get the classic hero quest.

I only have a few quibbles with the book. The middle is a little slow and I think if some of the things from the later portions of the book were placed in the middle, it might have alleviated some of the monotony. Granted, this gave her another opportunity to make Ron look like a moron, but I think we all have seen this in Ron before and it doesn’t gain us a whole lot.

Contrasting the middle, the end of the book races along and at times, it feels a tad bit rushed. Some of this is just the pacing of the action, but after 6 books of slow modified development, a racing ending feels a little out of place. Granted, it would have made the book longer, but I don’t think anyone but Rowling would have had a problem with that.

Continuing with length, I think a follow up chapter would have been good. I know the Epilogue was supposed to cover that, but I would have liked to seen a little attention paid to both the fruits of victory and the accompanying mourning of those who fell in the final battle. Of course, I would have also liked to seen Percy go apeshit on Rookwood after he killed Fred, but unfortunately, that didn’t happen. I can’t help but imagine a scene where after Percy realizes that Fred is dead, jumps up and attacks Rookwood in a blind rage, preferably killing him while screaming with bloodlust. Would have made a very interesting comeback for Percy.

Most people’s biggest flaw with the book is the Epilogue. I got a double hit on this, because I misinterpreted how it was to be done. I was expecting a listing of what happened to all major characters (similar to the Epilogue in Band of Brothers or similar tales) rather than a scene concerning a few of the main characters that didn’t really tell us anything (other than that Neville was the Herbology professor now). The other quibble with the Epilogue is that it really wasn’t that well written. Mrs. X pointed out that it felt like really poorly written fan fiction and that Rowling probably wrote it a very long time ago and never really bothered to rewrite it. As such, she hadn’t really applied what she had learned as an author to this section.

Despite these little quirks, I did thoroughly enjoy the book and I think the way the series ended was quite satisfying. I was quite amused reading through the book, how many times it felt like Rowling was deliberately answering a question someone had posed to her before the release of the book, or just shooting down elaborate theories spun by other people. Before the book was released, I read a great deal of elaborate back-stories that people invented on Red Hen. Many of them were quite good and a few of them were even validated. However, many more, especially the more outlandish ones, were blown to pieces. I have to say, this did not overly bother me. Sometimes the simplest way to tell a story is take the straightest path and I think that’s pretty much what Rowling did.

I haven’t caught the Today show interview yet, but I did read a release of it this morning. Apparently, Mr. Weasley was actually supposed to die from the bits Nagini gave him in OotP, but Rowling simply couldn’t kill him. This actually addresses a bit of a sticky point that Mrs. X pointed out as to how Mr. Weasley survived but Snape died, despite suffering almost the same injuries. We’ll just have to leave it as one of those plot points that authors are allowed to get away with once in a while.

The interview did not specifically state the follow up question as to who the two who died instead were, but some of the phrasing around the original question made me think that Lupin and Tonks deaths might have been the two she hadn’t originally been planning to kill. She did apparently say that she would go ahead and write the encyclopedia, although she plans to take a little break before taking that up. Given that she already has reams of material lying in various boxes, I don’t think it will much a writing effort, as it will be more of a compiling of what she already has. I know that she has repeatedly mentioned Dean Thomas’ back-story as one that she wants to tell. So we can now look forward to that and it will shoot down all the theories we will now formulate as to what happened to everyone after Deathly Hallows.

If you had to make me predict what everyone was doing, I would say that Harry takes to the academic circuit. He doesn’t teach at Hogwarts, but he guest lectures every once in a while. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Ministry encourages him to write the Defense Against the Dark Arts standard textbook. Compiled with his inherited wealth, one can imagine Harry living quite comfortably while staying at home quite a lot. This would leave Ginny free to pursue her own career. Perhaps as an auror, although we’ve never seen enough of Ginny’s other side to wonder what her interests are.

I like to imagine Ron getting in with Magical Games and Sports Division of the ministry, especially once he realizes that he doesn’t quite have the temperament to be an auror. Hermione will probably agitate for Elvish rights and equal treatment for all creatures in some fashion. I’m sure she will continue SPEW as an outside force but some point she might try to work within the ministry to enact change, especially in the House-Elf Liaison office.

In her interview, Rowling mentioned that McGonagall would probably be passed over as headmistress due to her age. One could make the argument that the ministry decides to go the healing route and appoint a Hufflepuff headmistress and Prof. Sprout gets vaulted into the top job. This would clear the way for Neville to get appointed to the Herbology post immediately. However, it’s more likely that the ministry appoints an outside headmaster as an interim leader until things get settled down. This would give Neville time to either work out in the real world for a bit, or to stay on as Prof. Sprout’s assistant, until he gets the job when she retires.

Luna will eventually take over as editor of the Quibbler once her father retires, that much is just about certain. The only real question is whether she marries. I know some have liked the idea of her marrying Neville and I wouldn’t put it past them, given the friendship that they formed as being the leaders of the DA. I could also see Dumbledore’s Army being incorporated as an official group for advanced defense magic education and to be called on to defend Hogwarts if the need arises. Sort of like a wizard national guard. It would just be one more thing that Neville oversees during his tenure as professor.

I have a harder time imagining things for other characters, but I’m certain I could come up with good theories for each of them. I will say that I think that Kingsley should remain Minister of Magic for as long as he wants as he seems like he would be the most fair and honest MoM that has been seen for a while.

On a side note, Naomi Watts has been cast to play Narcissa Malfoy and Stuart Townsend has been cast to play Bill Weasley. Joseph Fiennes (Ralph Fiennes younger brother) has also been cast although his role has not been released. My guess is that he will be playing Tom Riddle Sr. Morfin Gaunt has also been speculated, but this would require a departure from the books since Voldemort is supposed to strongly favor his father in appearance. Having a strong resemblance to your mother’s brother would be a bit odd in that light; but in movies you can pick and choose how you do things.

Monday, July 16, 2007

Harry Potter addendum

Well, I will concede that I was wrong about Neville being Harry’s third cousin, once removed. I took a look at a copy of the Black Family Tapestry that had dates on it and used a few logical clues that were in the book and figured out that Harfang Longbottom could not be Neville’s great-grandfather. Most likely, he is Neville’s great uncle, a brother to his grandfather.

Probably the most fun way of determining this was to treat it as a logic puzzle. Neville was born in July 1980 (one day before Harry) and his father and mother were both aurors. Auror training takes three years upon graduation from Hogwarts and information from Mad-Eye Moody in OotP strongly suggests that Frank and Alice were already well-established and popular as aurors by the time they were killed (most likely in 1982). This suggests they were at least 21 and probably older than that when Neville was born.

In HBP we are told that Neville’s grandmother failed her Charms OWL, as was observed by Prof. McGonagall. Prof. McGonagall started teaching in December 1956, per OotP, so if she were observing Augusta as a teacher, Augusta would have had her OWLs in 1957 at the earliest, placing her graduation in 1959. For Frank to be 21 in 1980, Augusta would have had to give birth to him the same year she graduated, possible, but unlikely.

Given the way Neville’s grandmother is described, she seems to be about the same age as Prof. McGonagall, which would place the two of them right around the same year at Hogwarts. Rowling has described Prof. McGonagall as being in her 70’s and she has also stated as having no memory regarding the Chamber of Secrets being opened (1942-43 school year). In fact, given that she had no memory of Tom Riddle at all, it is likely that she graduated around 1938-39 or so, before Riddle came or after his first year.

Knowing a person’s OWL results (especially fails) indicates closeness in age; such that we might guess that Augusta and Minerva were possibly even in the same class. Thus, we might surmise that Augusta also graduated in the late 1930’s, marrying Mr. Longbottom sometime in the 1940’s. Frank was probably born around 1950 or even a little later given his status as a prized only child that Neville must emulate. This would make Frank nearly 30 when Neville was born.

Augusta would then have been born sometime around 1920 and one might surmise that her husband was also born around this time. No dates are given for Harfang Longbottom, but Callidora Black was born in 1915. At only 5 years older than Augusta, it seems likely that Callidora married the older brother of Neville’s grandfather, unless Augusta has a taste for much younger men and I don’t particularly buy that argument.

Some might speculate that there were at least 3 brothers, given that Neville frequently mentions a great-uncle Algie (probably Algernon). However, Algie’s surname is never given. He is portrayed with the air of a slightly crazy old bachelor. No evidence is given, but my own gut feeling is that rather than being Harfang and Mr. Longbottom’s brother, I think Algie is Augusta’s brother who lives near or with his older sister now that her husband has passed away. One can easily imagine Augusta deciding that Neville needed a practical male role model in addition to the ideal of his father that she would give him and invited her brother to visit regularly.

Now, all of this won’t amount to a hill of beans in the last novel, but it does make for fun logic problems.

Speaking of the last book, Mrs. X and I are waiting patiently for our copy, which will be delivered on Saturday sometime. She gets to read it first as she is the faster reader and can take advantage of times when Toddler X is napping to forage ahead. I’ll get to read it after that, although I do at least get to read the table of contents to speculate on when it arrives. We are also filling out our speculation sheets as was forwarded by Mrs. X’s brother. Most are pretty straightforward, but it will be amusing to look at our “predictions” in comparison to what actually happens.

Friday, July 13, 2007

Idle Harry Potter Thoughts

With the soon advent of the final Harry Potter novel, I’ve been roaming around, looking up interesting information to refresh myself with about various things that aren’t extremely obvious in the books. One of the really interesting things is plotting out how everyone is linked to each other (this was greatly aided by Rowling’s release of a segment of the Black Family Tapestry last year).

Ron has a line (I think in Chamber of Secrets) where he mentions that it was important for wizards to marry Muggles or Muggle-born wizards or the line would have died out. When one examines the genealogy of the various pureblood (or near pureblood) families, one can easily see how correct Ron is. Nearly all the principle characters that hail from pureblood lineages (including Harry) are related in some fashion to each other. In fact, nearly all these characters share descent from Phineas Nigellus Black.

Looking at things from Harry’s point of view, we note that Sirius Black (his godfather) is also his second cousin, as is Bellatrix Lestrange and Narcissa Malfoy. This in turn makes both Tonks and Draco Malfoy his second cousins, once removed. Turning over to the Weasleys, Harry’s best friend (Ron) and his girlfriend (Ginny) are his third cousins. There is also speculation that Neville Longbottom is Harry’s third cousin, once removed; but it is not absolutely clear if the Harfang Longbottom mentioned in the tapestry is in fact Neville’s great-grandfather. It is also possible that Barty Crouch Jr. was Harry’s third cousin as well, but again, the tapestry stops when it comes to naming descendents not tied strongly to the male Black line.

Its also interesting to see the strong Slythern link that runs through the family lines. Draco’s grandmother was a Rosier, his great grandmother was a Crabbe, his great, great grandmother was a Bulstrode, and his great, great, great grandmother was a Flint. One could easily imagine these various families swirling in and out of each other with relative ease. The female Bulstrode and Flint are Harry’s ancestors as well, although one generation back.

Another thing to speculate about is who will take over for the various offices (assuming Hogwarts stays open). Given the problems the Ministry generated by stepping in with Umbridge, it’s likely that Professor McGonagall will be appointed Headmistress. This leaves vacancies in Transfiguration, Defense Against the Dark Arts, the Deputy Head position, and the head of Gryffindor House (assuming that Professor Slughorn stays on). It is possible that one of the minor class teachers (Prof. Sinistra, Madam Hooch, Prof. Vector, Prof. Babbling, the Muggle Studies teacher) could be of Gryffindor House and could take over, but its also possible that McGonagall could just appoint the new Transfiguration teacher as the head of the house.

Given the history of the DADA job, I would think it somewhat unlikely that whoever gets that job would be appointed to be a head of house, until there is some evidence that the curse against it has been broken. Some circles have suggested that Hagrid might be the most senior Gryffindor and could get the head of house nod, but his lack of being a qualified wizard would probably count against him. What’s more, Prof. McGonagall, while fond of Hagrid, has been shown to be highly dubious of Hagrid’s decision making capabilities and is unlikely to place him in a position of heavy responsibility and power. Likewise, Prof. Binns is probably out of the running due to his being a ghost.

My own personal guess is that Prof. Flitwick is probably on the inside track to being appointed Deputy Headmaster.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Sopranos Thoughts

So Mrs. X and I finished up with the final season of The Sopranos the other night. We don’t have HBO so Mrs. X’s brother Mr. A recorded the season on tape for us. We had tried to avoid spoilers but Mrs. X had learned about Chris’ death and I had learned about the attack on Bobby and Silvio. Even beyond that, it was very hard to avoid learning about the last 5 minutes of the last episode. Although I can say that we were both surprised at the manor of Phil’s death (yuck).

Obviously I’m late to the game when it comes to how the show ended. I actually didn’t mind it, but I had been prepared for it. If I had been watching, I think I would have been a little irritated. I like threads coming to conclusions, even if you disagree with how they choose to end it. The abruptness of the ending leads me to believe that something specific happened at that moment. I would probably have to go back to season 1 and see how the series began to garner a couple of extra clues regarding the ending. I believe it ended with Tony coming into Dr. Malfi’s office, but I’m not sure.

I haven’t had a chance to read EW’s article on the subject, but I’ve seen several theories already about what the ending meant. The first is obviously that the show just ended and life goes on, though we are no longer privy to it. Mrs. X leans more in this camp.

Second theory is that the fellow in the Members Only jacket comes out of the bathroom and kills Tony. There are shades of the Godfather in the set up of the scene and it would give an added point to the flashback scene in the previous episode where Bobby noted that you probably don’t even hear your death coming.

Third theory was that the whole thing was a dream sequence and Tony is still out on the run from Phil. This comment was based on the person noting that Tony went to bed in an unmade bed and without any other comforts. However, I think it’s obvious that some time has passed and once the first night was over, Tony would have made the bed and put in a few things. The fact that he took up his AR-15 in a later scene showed that he was still carrying it around with him whenever he went upstairs into the bedroom. So I don’t agree with this theory.

A fourth theory, which I believe has some merit is that, it wasn’t Tony that died, but his dream of a normal family life. The whole series has been about justifying his mob life and trying to get a normal family. The fantasy segment began when he entered the restaurant and saw himself sitting at a booth like a normal man. His family comes in and they try to act normal, but Carmella brings up the Carlo business and AJ also reminds him that he now works for him in a way (since Little Carmine shares his interests with Jersey and New York). The music reminds Tony to not stop believing in the dream, but he does and everything ends. My only quibble with this theory is that I don’t like the timing on the ending if he is letting the dream die. The shot ends with him looking up as someone comes in the front door. If he was letting the dream die, I would have expected a sigh or other sign of dejection come over him before looking up. So I’m still on the fence about this one.

Still, its been an entertaining series and one can only hope that a new series comes along with this much entertainment value.

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

The Erised Trap

Mrs. X and I have been spending the last few months rereading the various Harry Potter books in preparation for the 7th book being released in July. I’ve also been reading a series of essays over on Red Hen. Most are interesting, although the author does have some serious issues about what to what to expect out of Rowling’s work. Of course, anyone who is going to write in that volume about a series is probably a bit over the top. But there have been some interesting points made in various essays.

One of the most interesting is the argument made over the labyrinth in Sorcerer’s Stone. Mrs. X has been quite vocal about her annoyance that the series of obstacles guarding the sorcerer’s stone were too easy and that the teachers could have done a much better job than put up some tasks that three first year’s could have gotten through. However, it has been argued that the point of the various obstacles was actually not to stop Voldemort but to merely delay him.

Dumbledore’s method of hiding the stone in the mirror was all the protection the stone really needed. Quirrell/Voldemort had no way of getting to the stone in the mirror so all the other tasks were quite meaningless. What’s more, Dumbledore could have simply put the stone in the mirror and set it up in his office if he was really interested in keeping the stone out of Voldemort’s hands. Voldemort would never have been able to get the stone and getting into Dumbledore’s office would have been even harder than getting through the third floor corridor. So why the elaborate defenses?

The answer is rather simple. The labyrinth was a trap. The majority of the tasks were not difficult, but they were time consuming. Catching a flying key would have taken time (presumably the keys would have been immune to Accio), the chess match would have taken a lot of time, and even the logic puzzle would have required some time to sort out. Fluffy and the Devil’s Snare wouldn’t have taken a lot of time, but they were also the first tasks and Voldemort would have been suspicious if the entrance tasks weren’t dangerous. Quirrell’s troll obviously is something he knew he could get past quickly and doesn’t factor into the equation.

Dumbledore would have known that when he was taken away from Hogwarts and Voldemort went down into the labyrinth, he could return and find Voldemort and Quirrell still trying to get the stone out of the mirror. There Dumbledore could have neutralized Quirrell and tried to find some way of trapping Voldemort in an object or some other sort of prison. Once done, Dumbledore could have destroyed Voldemort’s horcruxes at his leisure and then dealt with Voldemort as he saw fit.

The trap probably had evolved over the course of the summer. Quirrell had probably been hired as the DADA teacher during the ’89-‘90 term and then left to get some practical experience (and keeping with the curse on the job). When he came back at the end of the ’90-’91 term he was already putting on his twitch performance to disguise any idiosyncrasies in his behavior. Voldemort had not taken physical possession of Quirrell yet (he wasn’t wearing his turban until the start of the ’91-’92 term) but his mind had already been bent to Voldemort’s will. Dumbledore knew that Quirrell had been wandering in Voldemort’s rumored territory and was probably able to scan Quirrell’s mind and get a bead on things.

Dumbledore quickly hatched a daring plan. He contacted his friend Flamel and convinced him to give up the stone as bait. Dumbledore then made an announcement to his staff about hearing rumors of a danger to the stone and had offered to keep it at Hogwarts for safekeeping. Dumbledore probably went to individual teachers and asked for a specific guardian in their specialty. Once Hagrid arrived with the stone, the trap was set. Voldemort jumped at the opportunity, but decided to make a grab for the stone before it was in place.

Something that gets overlooked is the fact the Quirrell was already at Diagon Alley before Hagrid arrived. He also met Hagrid in the pub and could probably guess that he was there to collect the stone. Quirrell might have been fighting back against Voldemort’s power by delaying just long enough to know that his attempt on the vault would be too late. It would seem that after this, Voldemort took no more chances and directly possessed Quirrell. This also was a dangerous gambit since Voldemort’s possession would have drained Quirrell’s life and forced Voldemort to supplement with unicorn blood within 6 months of taking control of Quirrell.

The only other question is given that Quirrell was dying on him, why did Voldemort wait until June to make a grab for the stone? Voldemort was always very cautious and never makes a move if he can make others do it for him. He floated a test balloon of the castle’s defenses over Halloween by letting a troll into the building, but then ran into Snape and Fluffy. Voldemort then waited for the dust to settle and see if Snape blew the whistle on him. When he didn’t, Voldemort set about tricking Hagrid to get past Fluffy. Voldemort probably could have gotten past the dog without Hagrid’s information, but he was determined to be as unobtrusive as possible. At the same time he was trying to get the information from Hagrid, Voldemort was probably also trying to get information on the other obstacles from the other teachers.

Voldemort had the information from Hagrid and probably the other teachers by spring, but he waited even longer. Voldemort was cautious, but he also had been unable to gather what obstacle that Dumbledore himself had put in the labyrinth. Finally, he decided that he couldn’t wait any longer as term was about it end and decided to go for it. Dumbledore was lured out of the castle and Quirrell went down into the labyrinth.

But Dumbledore made one small mistake. He underestimated Harry and co.’s determination to muddle in. Some have suggested that Voldemort waited to go down until Harry decided to go down the trapdoor to stop Snape so that he could use him to get the stone. However, if this were the case, I think we would have seen Quirrell offer Harry more hints about what he knew and tried to nudge him down the trapdoor sooner (much as Barty Crouch Jr. did in GoF). Instead, Harry goes down of his own accord and nearly screws everything by pulling the stone out of the mirror.

I suspect that Dumbledore had two other little tricks that would have aided him in trapping Voldemort that are implied in the text. First, he had some sort of warning system in place if the stone actually came out of the mirror. Dumbledore mentioned that he suddenly felt that he was needed back at Hogwarts. This probably coincided with Harry getting the stone out of the mirror.

Second, Dumbledore might have set up an apparition tunnel into the mirror chamber. Dumbledore arrived in the chamber in time to pull Quirrell off of Harry and Harry heard Dumbledore’s voice before he passed out. If Dumbledore’s intention was to trap Voldemort and deal with him in the mirror room, it makes sense that he would have set up a method to bypass the other tasks. House elves seem to be able to ignore the anti-apparition spells that are placed on Hogwarts and Dumbledore consistently lifts the restriction in the great hall during apparition lessons. Given this kind of flexibility, it makes sense that Dumbledore might have created a spot where you could apparate into the mirror room, but only from one other point in the castle (like his office).

Thus, when Dumbledore got his warning about the stone at the ministry, he immediately apparated to gates of Hogwarts and then ran inside. He then ran to his office and apparated from the point he had designated, to the window point in the mirror room, arriving in time to pull Quirrell off Harry.

The only other fly in the ointment regarding this is why Dumbledore showed Harry how the mirror works if it wasn’t to remove the stone. Dumbledore probably had two objectives. He did want Harry to know how the mirror works so that he could have recovered the stone for Dumbledore if necessary. Dumbledore might have been unable to retrieve the stone due to his desire to destroy the stone and he would have needed a third party to get it out of the mirror.

But I think the main reason that Harry was shown the mirror was to test him. Dumbledore hoped that Harry was not coming to Hogwarts with the attitudes of Tom Riddle, but he couldn’t be sure. Only by observing his reaction to the mirror and what he saw could Dumbledore judge Harry’s character. Rather than showing him power and then keeping it a secret as Tom Riddle would have seen and done, Harry saw his family and immediately ran off to show Ron.

Harry passed the test with flying colors, but also was now equipped with the information that almost allowed Voldemort to acquire the stone. Thanks to Harry’s involvement, Voldemort escaped and Dumbledore stepped hard into the trap he had hoped to avoid as mentioned in Order of the Phoenix: helping and hoping that Harry could have a normal life.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Into the Valley of Elah

The Israeli government just released a preliminary report that is highly critical of Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz in the recent war with Lebanon. The final report is due in July, but the even the preliminary report is so scathing that the two men will probably be forced to resign their posts sometime in the next two months.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas are starting to get a little more desperate. Things haven’t gone that smoothly for them and their own local populaces are starting to get testy. Syria recently was forced to put down a minor uprising among its Kurdish population and even Iran is clamping down on protesters. All these things indicate that the leaders of these various movements are going to need a good distraction.

The always-obvious choice is to attack Israel and unite in a broad war. This prospect gets even juicier when you realize that at the point of resignation, the Israeli leadership will be in a state of chaos. The Arabs will not want to wait too long to attack following the resignations because there is a legitimate chance that Israel could call new elections and Benjamin Netinyahu will come into power. He will organize the military to fight back in ways that are more detrimental to the Arabs and a key opportunity will have been lost.

Couple this with the fact that Israel will celebrate Jerusalem Day in a couple of weeks (May 16), marking the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem. This type of celebration will stick heavily in the craw of the Arabs. I would look for some kind of incident anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks from now, touching off another conflict, perhaps trying another sneak attack on a Jewish holiday such as Pentacost. The wheels are in motion.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Leaving Turtle Bay?

Every once in a while when you peruse the news, certain articles just jump out at you for totally different reasons.

Most people know that many in the US want nothing more than to kick the UN out of Turtle Bay and back across the pond. Many outside the US would like that as well. But its quite another thing to see a couple of academics propose to move the UN out and into a place specifically mentioned in Biblical fiction.

For those of you who haven't read them, in the Left Behind series, the antichrist (Nicolae Carpathia) moves the UN out of Turtle Bay after becoming UN Secretary-General and moves it to a refurbished Babylon (called New Babylon). There has been speculation among Biblical prophecy scholars that Babylon might be rebuilt and become the world capital (I've wrote about it before) but there has been equal speculation about the spiritually corrupt Babylon refering to Rome, New York, and a host of other cities.

Despite the author's good points, I doubt the UN will leave Turtle Bay soon. New York is cushy and UN diplomats are not bold people. If they ever did move to Babylon, the city would become the most heavily defended fortress the world has ever seen, although they would balance this out with some of the nicest places to eat in the world. I can only imagine what that would cost.

Still, I would keep an eye on this story. I firmly believe that the UN will pull out of Turtle Bay some day and relocation to a place in the Middle East does make a good deal of sense given where the functioning mission of the UN is likely to be focused.

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Islam and the Tribulation

Here’s a random bit of thinking that got me going. Throughout the ages Christians have tried to discern the specifics of Revelation and how end times events are going to happen. As of late, with the current war of fundamentalist Islam, many Christians have speculated on the possibility that the Antichrist will be a Muslim and he will lead a great global jihad against the rest of the world leading to his eventual worship as a god.

My problem with this theory is that it’s a bit too flavor of the month. Obviously every end times projection is colored with the politics of the era in which it is written, but there are some nuances about Islam that don’t quite fit Revelation. First, Muslims worship Allah as a lone deity and their concepts of a messiah do not involve the worship of him personally. In fact, Christians are derided as polytheists because of our belief in the Triune God (the Al-Aqsa mosque has an inscription that states “There is only one god and he has no son”). Any attempt by a Muslim to focus worship on anyone other than Allah (including the messiah) would be seen as blasphemy.

Second, the Antichrist is supposed to rise from an assembly of European leaders and proclaimed leader over all (eventually moving to become ruler of the world). While Europe is gaining in Muslim population, there have been increased incidents of resistance to both Jihadist propaganda and Muslim special treatment. Europeans could proclaim someone who espouses to be a Muslim as a compromise to their Muslim populations, but Islamisation of Europe is still in its early stages and will take many years yet for Muslim led governments to form.

Third, the long stated goal of Jihadists is a religious Caliphate, much as existed back in the 9th century. While Islam was the uniting force, the Caliph was only a religious leader/king and was never the focus of worship.

Nevertheless, the proliferation of Islam into all cultures of the world requires some sort of answer. Siding right along with the Antichrist for the first three and half years of the Tribulation is the One-World Church (believed to be the culmination of the ecumenicalism movement). Most faiths have decided they can work together in some sort of live and let live fashion with the exception of Islam. Islam demands subservience. It seems rather unlikely that Muslims around the world would be prepared to all sit in a circle and say that Islam is just as good as Buddhism or Hinduism (to say nothing of Judaism). Nor would the militant Jihadists be content to bow down before a man who has declared himself god.

One of the things that is also mentioned in Revelation that gets a bit glossed over is the great war that will erupt over the world not long after the Antichrist takes power. About one-quarter of the world population will die in the war due to battle, famine and disease (1.5 billion people according to today’s numbers). What if this war is the great and final push of Muslims against the world government? Utilizing the nuclear arsenals of the world and the threat of global jihad, the Antichrist could cement his power in pushing back the fundamentalist threat. What’s more, once the Muslim menace has been dealt with, it might give the Antichrist enough leverage to declare that all fundamentalist sects are a menace (Christians, Jews, etc.) and to prevent further religious wars, all are banned except the worship of him. Anyone not bowing down to him and swearing loyalty to the state must be planning violence and be executed immediately.

It might be a stretch, but I think it makes for a very plausible scenario in today’s political climate. Of course, we’ve been waiting for the Rapture and the start of the Tribulation for nearly 2,000 years now. This scenario could be completely bollixed even five years from now. We shall just have to wait and see.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Rolla Update

So if I were in Vegas, I would have won some money. The student in question is Indian and had apparently just enrolled in the MS Civil program in the fall. The white powder he was holding turned out to be powdered sugar. Authorities in this case are strongly leaning toward this as a “suicide by cop” incident. Unfortunately, very little about this story comes as a surprise to me given the culture of the university.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Miner Scare

So apparently there was a terrorist incident at my university today. CNN is reporting that a grad student was making threats and claimed to have both a bomb and anthrax. 23 people are in quarantine due to exposure to a white powder and the police are currently holding the student in question.

Despite Rolla’s fairly well established bio-chem program, I doubt the material was truly anthrax. More likely it is some other powder (although not necessarily inert). Now, having bomb-making materials is very possible at Rolla. Wires, timers and potent chemicals are all over the campus and could be gathered with relative ease, especially by a grad student with full access to certain buildings.

Police have not released any information about the student except to say that he is a foreign grad student. Given my knowledge of ratios, I would say there is a high probability that he is of Indian decent, although I’m not going to jump up and say that this might be an Islamic terrorist incident. At the moment it seems more likely to be a case of deep depression over grades (something that happens a lot at Rolla). If this had been a case of true terrorism, I believe the student would have been apprehended trying to plant a bomb in the nuclear reactor on campus rather than with anthrax in the Civil building. I imagine security has been beefed up there, but the idea of spreading radioactive material over several blocks would be a very tempting target for a terrorist.

Still, it does give one pause and keep an open eye towards events happening in places that I am very familiar with.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Death by Oscar

Apparently Mrs. X and I didn’t even make it to the halfway point of last night’s Oscars. We threw in the towel and turned off the lights a little after 10:15 when they started that montage on foreign films. The only Oscar that Mrs. X was interested in was Best Supporting Actress and I was only interested in the “In Memorandum” segment. Neither of us got to see what we were interested in. Instead, we had to parade through a boring siege of behind the scenes Oscars, all for movies that we had not seen. Our sprits were lifted a little when we saw Alan Arkin win Best Supporting Actor. We had actually seen “Little Miss Sunshine” (and found it very amusing) and we hoped we were getting into the meat of the show. But it drug out even more.

One columnist stated that they thought the ratings might be bad enough to get the show bumped over to cable (like on E!) but I think it’ll take a few more years of no one caring for that to happen. After all, what’s the point of cutting off boring speeches for the sake of time, if you’re going to fill that time with inane, unfunny crap? Going over a couple of the liveblogs of the event, it seems like I’m not the only one who thinks so.

Meanwhile, I’ve seen very little enthusiasm for the results. In fact, most things that I’ve seen on-line reflect an extreme ambivalence towards “The Departed” winning best picture. I think that’s because everyone knows that this was a “reward Marty” moment, despite the fact that it was not a great movie and certainly not up to the standards of Raging Bull or Goodfellas. I might also note that I have no intention of seeing this movie as I’ve seen Scoresese’s last two attempts to win an Oscar and both stunk in my opinion (Aviator and Gangs of New York).

So, unless there is a movie that I take a particular rooting interest in (and I don’t see one on the horizon) maybe I’ll just go to bed early during next year’s Oscars.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Schrute-isms

Since I haven't been able to come up with an interesting post in a while, I thought I would post a list of Schrute-isms that I found. Dwight is probably the most amusing charater on The Office and I get a little chuckle when I read these:

1) Remember on Lost when they met The Others?

2) Jim: Hey, Dwight. As sempai, do you ever think there's going to be a day when humans and robots can peacefully coexist?
Dwight: Impossible, in the way they're programmed... You're mocking me.

3) You can't fire me. I don't work for you in the VAN.

4) I was out last night getting drunk with my Laser Tag team…

5) Dwight: I can raise and lower my cholesterol at will.
Pam: Why would you want to raise your cholesterol?
Dwight: So I could lower it.

6) It is blood that moves the wheels of history (much fist pumping and podium pounding included)

7) That is the law, according to the rules.

8) It has to be official, and it has to be urine.

9) Pam: Nice tux Dwight.
Dwight: Thanks. It was my grandfather's. He was buried in it.

10) This is not Kelly Kapoor story-hour! Your ass is on the line, mister! My ass is on the line!

11) Dwight: Can I have a gun?
Security Guard: No, I don't have a gun.
Dwight: Okay, I'll have to bring in my bo-staff.

12) Would I ever leave this company? Look, I'm all about loyalty. In fact, I feel like part of what I'm being paid for here is my loyalty. But if there were somewhere else that valued loyalty more highly, I'm going wherever they value loyalty the most.

13) A thirty-year mortgage at Michael's age essentially means that he's buying a coffin. If I were buying my coffin, I would get one with thicker walls... so you couldn't hear the other dead people.

14) Dwight: Someone forged medical information, and that's a felony.
Jim: OK, Whoa, alright 'cause that's a pretty intense accusation. How do you know that they're fake?
Dwight: Uh, Leprosy? Flesh Eating Bacteria. Hot Dog Fingers. Government Created Killer Nano Robot Infection?

15) In the wild, there is no healthcare. In the wild healthcare is 'Ow, I hurt my leg. I can't run. A lion eats me, and I'm dead.' Well, I'm not dead. I'm the lion. You're dead.

16) Dwight: Uh, knock please. Please knock. This is an office.
Jim: It says 'workspace'.
Dwight: Same thing.
Jim: If it's the same thing then why'd you write 'workspace'?
Dwight: Just knock, please. Okay? A sign of respect for a superior.
Jim: You are not my superior.
Dwight: Oh gee, then why do I have an office?
Jim: I thought it was a workspace.

17) ID badges are long overdue. Security in this office park is a joke. Last year I came to work with my spud gun in a duffel bag. I sat at my desk all day with a rifle that shoots potatoes at 60 pounds per square inch. Can you imagine if I were deranged?

18) Do I feel bad about betraying Jim? Not at all. That's the game: convince him we're in an alliance, get some information, throw him to the wolves. That's politics baby. Get what you can out of someone, then crush them. I think Jim might've learned a very valuable lesson.

19) I hope the war goes on forever and Ryan gets drafted.

20) Question, where can I put my terrarium?

21) I don't believe you. Continue.

22) The Schrutes produce very thirsty babies.

23) My father's name was Dwight Shrute. My grandfather's name was Dwight Shrute. His father name... Dwide Shrude. Amish.

24) So you got the fax? So why didn't you add it to the res…? What do you mean? Of course martial arts training is relevant. Oh, excuse me! I know about a billion Asians that would beg to differ. Uh, yeah, I get a little frustrated when I'm dealing with incompetence. Well, you know what? You can go to hell too. And I will see you there...burning. Fine! Okay, wait. So you'll let me know when you've made a decision?

25) I'm a deer hunter. I go all the time with my dad. One thing about deer, they have very good vision. One thing about me, I am better at hiding than they are...at vision.

26) There wasn't the Long Ranger, and Tonto and Bonto.

27) Do you think this is a good idea Jim; a hide a key rock?

28) Shirts on or off?

29) When someone smiles at me, all I see is a chimpanzee begging for its life.

30) Me and Michael are like Mozart...and Mozart's friend. No, I'm like Butch Cassidy… You mess with Mozart, you're gonna get a bullet in your head. Courtesy of Butch Cassidy.

31) My middle name is NOT fart...

32) Do you wanna die? DO YOU WANNA DIE?

33) Four years of malfeasance unreported, THIS CANNOT STAND!

34) I am faster than 80% of all snakes.

35) I didn't become a Lackawanna county volunteer sheriff's deputy to make friends. And by the way, I haven't.

36) Why should I tip someone for a job I am capable of doing myself? I can deliver food. I can drive a Taxi. I can and do cut my own hair. However I did tip my urologist because I can't pulverize my own kidney stones.

37) One word, two syllables: DEMARCATION.

38) Otherwise, it's just malfeasance, for malfeasances' sake.

39) Oscar visited Mexico when he was 5 to attend his great-grandmother's funeral. What does that mean to a United States Law Enforcement Officer? He's a potential drug mule.

40) tit-for-tit

41) It is amazing how many yeast infections there are in this county. Probably because we live down the river... from that old bread factory.

42) Have you ever -- pooped -- a balloon?

43) And in conclusion, I think Lex Luthor said it best when he said, “Dad, you have no idea what I’m capable of.”

44) I can and will go to New Zealand and walk the trail to Mt. Doom.

45) Question. Do I still have my shoes?

46) Hey everyone, guess what they don't teach in business school: how to work a toaster oven.

47) Do you THINK, or do you KNOW?

48) What is the clitoris?

49) Codename Remax is here. No sign of Lan Jevinson.

50) Dwight: The problem, Jim, is that people who are really suffering from a medical condition won't receive the care they need because someone in this office is coming up with ridiculous stuff. Count Choculitis.
Jim: Sounds Tough.
Dwight: Why did you write that down, Jim? Is it because you know I love Count Chocula?

51) We must deceive them, so as not to hurt them. In that way we honor them.

52) Dwight: Let me give you a piece of advice, I am not afraid to make an example of you.
Jim: That's not advice, what advice sounds like is this, don't bring your purple belt to work, because someone might steal it.
Dwight: Jim, give that back it is not a toy. It is a message, to show everyone in the office that I am capable of physically dominating them.

53) That is defacement of company property, so you better tell me. Kelly, if you tell me, you'll be punished less.

54) Keep your acceptance speeches short. I have wrap-it-up music and I'm not afraid to use it.

55) As a volunteer sheriff's deputy, I've been doing surveillance for years. One time, I suspected an ex-girlfriend of mine of cheating on me, so I tailed her for six nights straight. Turns out, she was. With a couple of guys, actually. So... Mystery solved.

56) Here, let me take you from behind...

57) Where were you? And don't say the bathroom, cause I kicked in all of the stalls.

58) Dwight: This is the most important day of the year. I can't risk anything.
Angela: Fine.
Dwight: What about that meeting, later, to discuss finances?
Angela: Yes. But don't expect any cookie.
Dwight: But what if I'm hungry?
Angela: No cookie.

59) Michael: Dwight, what are you doing here?
Dwight: You said that for when Darryl comes you want me here for protection.

60) The perfect girl for me would be Konikotaka. She was orphaned at age 10 when her parents were assassinated, and she was taken in by a wealthy, but very cruel, businessman. So she secretly practiced aikido for YEARS until she could avenge the death of her parents. She's also a survivor of monster rape.

61) Dwight: Excuse me. I’m sorry, but that’s not all it takes to be a hero.
Mr. Brown: Great. What is a hero to you?
Dwight: A hero kills people. People that wish him harm. A hero is part human and part supernatural. A hero is born out of a childhood trauma, or out of a disaster. And must be avenged.
Mr. Brown: Okay, you’re thinking of a superhero.
Dwight: We all have a hero in our heart.

62) You're going to give me this raise. I deserve this raise. The least you could do is keep my salary consistent with inflation...wakaw...yes! Why are you going to give me this raise? Why? Because I'm awesome, I'm awesome.

63) You may refer to me as Mr. Shrute.

64) The Schrutes consider children very valuable. In the olden days, the women would bear many children. So we would have enough laborers to work the fields. And if it was an especially cold winter, and there weren't enough grains for vegetables, they would get the weakest of the brood. (laughs) No, they didn't eat the children... It never came to that.

65) Don't worry Michael; I'm taking us to shore

66) Women are like wolves. If you want a wolf, you have to trap it. You have to snare it, and then you have to tame it, keep it happy, care for it, feed it. Lovingly, the way an animal deserves to be loved. And my animal deserves a lot of loving.

67) Dwight: It's a terrible idea.
Jim: What is?
Dwight: Them when they're all together. If they stay in there too long they're gonna get on the same cycle. Wreak havoc on our plumbing.

68) You have walked the long lonely walk of loneliness.

69) I know this Russian website you can download songs for a penny but their all in Russian.

70) Aw man! Am I a woman?

71) Yankee Swap is like Machiavelli meets... Christmas.

72) And like you have planted this beet seed in the ground I am going to plant my seed in you.

73) When I die I want to be frozen and if they have to freeze me in pieces, so be it. I will wake up stronger than ever because I will have used that time to figure out exactly why I died and what moves I could have used to defend myself better now that know what hold he had me in.

74) Get a knife and cut in all the way around the throat and make sure you have a bucket for the blood, innards, and feathers!

75) I can travel anywhere, except Cuba

76) Can I trust Jim? I don't know. Do I have a choice? - no, frankly I don't. Will I trust Jim? Yes. Should I trust Jim? ...you tell me.

77) You must be PMSing really bad, huh?

78) How would I describe myself? Three words — hardworking, alpha male, jackhammer. Merciless. Insatiable.

79) 2 hours of personal paintball lessons with me is worth easily like 2 grand.

80) There needs to be another plague.

81) You never know when you're going to be attacked by a grizzly bear.

82) I look forward to downsizing; in fact I requested it in my interview.

83) I am 99% sure that is not the real Ben Franklin. I don’t care what Jim says.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Super Bowl Thoughts

And so the 2006 football season comes to an end. Hats off to the Indianapolis Colts. They finally got over the hump and it couldn’t happen to a nicer group of guys. Plus, I have no animosity towards them they way I did Pittsburgh last year.

Overall it was a good game. I remember after Devin Hester ran the opening kickoff back, I remarked to Mrs. X that Ohio St. ran the opening kick back against Florida and that didn’t help them too much. Chicago stayed in it longer than they should have, mostly due to sloppy play by the Colts offense and the emotional buoy that Chicago had in the opening quarter. Towards the end of the second quarter and into the third quarter, you started to get the sense that Indy was inevitably grinding the Bears down and that victory was assured.

I think the key moment of the game came about halfway through the third quarter. Chicago finally got the ball back after Indy had gone up 19-14. Grossman lays a nice pass into Muhammad, setting up a second and 1 close to midfield. I was expecting a run and was waiting to see Chicago drive hard into the Colts defense, which was starting to soften against the run. Instead, Grossman drops back (I’m guessing for an attempt at the long bomb) and gets sacked for an 11-yard loss. At that moment, the little bit of momentum that Chicago had been building, died. Third down would have to be a long pass (easy for Indy to defend) and Chicago’s exhausted defense would be out on the field again, vainly trying to stop the Colts from bleeding the rest of the third quarter away.

In that one sack, the Bears lost any real opportunity to rely heavily on the run game and Grossman felt the pressure that the Bears had tried so hard to keep off of him. Result, he panics when the Bears fall behind by 8 and squanders good field position, leaving the Bears with a field goal. Panic rising in the 4th quarter (although they were only down by 5), Grossman throws deep jump balls in a desperate attempt to get the Bears back in the game. Both throws were picked off.

In the end, I enjoyed the game, although I think the MVP award should have been split between Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. They were the true back breakers and I think that if it were a single running back, he would have won the MVP. But since they split very evenly, the voters just gave it to Peyton, which is fine, since no one really cares who the MVP of the game is.

Now to the commercials. Every Super Bowl, the costs go up and the quality of writing goes down. I was deeply disappointed by Fed Ex, who usually has very good commercials. Budweiser did have a decent one at the beginning with the Rock, Paper, Scissors, but the rest of them were not that memorable (although the crab one was a worth a chuckle). The Careerbuilders trilogy was funnier once you saw the concept (I liked the gladiator one best) although the first one was a bit of a headscratcher. The Emerald Nuts one was weird, but funny as well. The Blockbuster Mouse commercial was amusing as well, although it did require the recycling of the rabbit and guinea pig from previous commercials.

Rating my top three, I would go as follows:
1) Careerbuilder.com Gladiator Promotion Pit (second spot)
2) Budweiser Rock/Paper/Scissors
3) Emerald Nuts Robert Goulet attacks

Movie Quiz

I stole this from Mrs. X. Its a recent movie quiz and if you've seen 85 or more of the 200+ movies listed, you have no life. I think we already knew that:

( ) Rocky Horror Picture Show
(x) Grease
(x) Pirates of the Caribbean
( ) Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest
( ) Boondock Saints
(x) Fight Club
( ) Starsky and Hutch
(x) Neverending Story
(x) Blazing Saddles
(x) Airplane
Total: 6

(x) The Princess Bride
(x) AnchorMan
( ) Napoleon Dynamite
(x) Labyrinth
( ) Saw
( ) Saw II
( ) Saw III
( ) White Oleander
( ) Anger Management
(x) 50 First Dates
( ) The Princess Diaries
( ) The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement
Total so far: 10

(x) Scream
(x) Scream 2
(x) Scream 3
(x) Scary Movie
( ) Scary Movie 2
( ) Scary Movie 3
( ) Scary Movie 4
(x) American Pie
( ) American Pie 2
( ) American Wedding
( ) American Pie Band Camp
Total so far: 15

(x) Harry Potter 1
(x) Harry Potter 2
(x) Harry Potter 3
(x) Harry Potter 4
( ) Resident Evil 1
( ) Resident Evil 2
(x) The Wedding Singer
( ) Little Black Book
(x) The Village
( ) Lilo & Stitch
Total so far: 21

(x) Finding Nemo
( ) Finding Neverland
(x) Signs
( ) The Grinch
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre
( ) Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning
( ) White Chicks
( ) Butterfly Effect
(x) 13 Going on 30
( ) I, Robot
( ) Robots
Total so far: 24

( ) Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
( ) Universal Soldier
( ) Lemony Snicket: A Series Of Unfortunate Events
( ) Along Came Polly
(x) Deep Impact
( ) KingPin
( ) Never Been Kissed
( ) Meet The Parents
( ) Meet the Fockers
( ) Eight Crazy Nights
( ) Joe Dirt
( ) KING KONG (remake)
Total so far: 25

( ) A Cinderella Story
( ) The Terminal
( ) The Lizzie McGuire Movie
( ) Passport to Paris
(x) Dumb & Dumber
( ) Dumber & Dumberer
( ) Final Destination
( ) Final Destination 2
( ) Final Destination 3
(x) Halloween
( ) The Ring
( ) The Ring 2
( ) Surviving X-MAS
( ) Flubber
Total so far: 27

( ) Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle
( ) Practical Magic
(x) Chicago
( ) Ghost Ship
( ) From Hell
( ) Hellboy
( ) Secret Window
( ) I Am Sam
( ) The Whole Nine Yards
( ) The Whole Ten Yards
Total so far: 28

( ) The Day After Tomorrow
( ) Child's Play
( ) Seed of Chucky
( ) Bride of Chucky
( ) Ten Things I Hate About You
( ) Just Married
( ) Gothika
(x) Nightmare on Elm Street
(x) Sixteen Candles
( ) Remember the Titans
( ) Coach Carter
( ) The Grudge
( ) The Grudge 2
( ) The Mask
( ) Son Of The Mask
Total so far: 30

( ) Bad Boys
( ) Bad Boys 2
( ) Joy Ride
( ) Lucky Number Sleven
(x) Ocean's Eleven
(x) Ocean's Twelve
( ) Bourne Identity
( ) Bourne Supremecy
( ) Lone Star
( ) Bedazzled
(x) Predator I
( ) Predator II
( ) The Fog
(x) Ice Age
( ) Ice Age 2: The Meltdown
( ) Curious George
Total so far: 34

(x) Independence Day
(x) Cujo
( ) A Bronx Tale
( ) Darkness Falls
( ) Christine
(x) ET
( ) Children of the Corn
( ) My Bosses Daughter
( ) Maid in Manhattan
(x) War of the Worlds
(x) Rush Hour
( ) Rush Hour 2
Total so far: 39

( ) Best Bet
( ) How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days
(x) She's All That
( ) Calendar Girls
( ) Sideways
(x) Mars Attacks
( ) Event Horizon
( ) Ever After
(x) Wizard of Oz
(x) Forrest Gump
( ) Big Trouble in Little China
(x) The Terminator
(x) The Terminator 2
(x) The Terminator 3
Total so far: 46

(x) X-Men
(x) X2
( ) X-3
(x) Spider-Man
(x) Spider-Man 2
( ) Sky High
( ) Jeepers Creepers
( ) Jeepers Creepers 2
(x) Catch Me If You Can
(x) The Little Mermaid
( ) Freaky Friday (remake)
( ) Reign of Fire
( ) The Skulls
(x) Cruel Intentions
( ) Cruel Intentions 2
( ) The Hot Chick
(x) Shrek
(x) Shrek 2
Total so far: 55

( ) Swimfan
( ) Miracle on 34th street (remake)
( ) Old School
( ) The Notebook
( ) K-Pax
( ) Krippendorf's Tribe
( ) A Walk to Remember
( ) The Glass House
( ) Boogeyman
(x) The 40-year-old-virgin
Total so far: 56

(x) Lord of the Rings Fellowship of the Ring
(x) Lord of the Rings The Two Towers
(x) Lord of the Rings Return Of the King
(x)Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark
(x)Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom
(x)Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Total so far: 62

( ) Baseketball
( ) Hostel
( ) Waiting for Guffman
( ) House of 1000 Corpses
( ) Devils Rejects
( ) Elf
(x) Highlander
( ) Mothman Prophecies
( ) American History X
( ) Three
Total so Far: 63

(x) Mean Girls
( ) Kung Fu Hustle
( ) Shaolin Soccer
( ) Night Watch
(x) Monsters Inc.
(x) Titanic
(x) Monty Python and the Holy Grail
( ) Shaun Of the Dead
( ) Willard
Total so far: 67

(x) Sleepy Hollow
( ) Club Dread
( ) Hulk
( ) Dawn Of the Dead
(x) Hook
(x) Chronicle Of Narnia The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe
( ) 28 days later
( ) Orgazmo
( ) Drumline
( ) Hocus Pocus
Total so far: 70

(x) Kill Bill vol 1
(x) Kill Bill vol 2
( ) Mortal Kombat
( ) Wolf Creek
( ) Kingdom of Heaven
( ) the Hills Have Eyes
( ) Uptown Girls
( ) The Last House on the Left
( ) Re-Animator
(x) Army of Darkness
Total so far: 73

(x) Star Wars Ep. I The Phantom Menace
(x) Star Wars Ep. II Attack of the Clones
(x) Star Wars Ep. III Revenge of the Sith
(x) Star Wars Ep. IV A New Hope
(x) Star Wars Ep. V The Empire Strikes Back
(x) Star Wars Ep. VI Return of the Jedi
(x) Ewoks Caravan Of Courage
(x) Ewoks The Battle For Endor
Total so far: 81

(x) The Matrix
(x) The Matrix Reloaded
(x) The Matrix Revolutions
( ) Snakes on A Plane
( ) Evil Dead
(x) Evil Dead 2
( ) Team America: World Police
(x) Red Dragon
(x) Silence of the Lambs
(x) Hannibal
Final Total: 88 – I have no life.

I would try to defend myself by arguing that many of these were seen when I was dating "She who must not be named" or even earlier, but the fact that I can say that I've seen part of many of other movies on this list leaves little room for argument.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Its the End of the World as We Know It and I Feel Fine

Eschatology is the study of end-times prophecy and will relate to any religion that believes that the world will end some day (although I only study Christian eschatology). Over the next two or three years, there is going to be a lot of buzzing among the various End Times proponents (Hal Lindsay, Tim LeHay, J.R. Church, etc.).

Most of this stems out of the Six Day War in 1967. After Israel captured the Temple Mount in 1967, many prominent theologians declared that the “time of the Gentiles” was over. Some had already been talking ever since Israel was refounded as a nation in 1948, it was the capture of Jerusalem that got the majority of people’s attention. Hal Lindsay published Late Great Planet Earth and boldly predicted that the church would be raptured by 1988 (40 years since the founding of Israel). Of course, 1988 came and went and no one disappeared. Several other dates were offered based on other calculations: 1994, 1997, and 2000. Meanwhile, people are still waiting and still convincing themselves that they can date set the start of the End Times.

2007 is notable, as it will mark the 40th anniversary since the capture of the Temple Mount. Back in 1967, Israel completely controlled the Temple Mount for all of one day before Moshe Dayan gave governing control of the Mount back to Jordan. Many theologians (and Orthodox Jews) believe this represents a rejection of God’s protection in Israel, much as when the Israelite spies convinced the Israelites not to journey into Canaan after the Exodus. Israel’s punishment then was to wander in the desert for 40 years. Israel’s modern punishment has been to live in the midst of her enemies and steadily give back the land that is rightfully hers. However, May 16th is the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem (by the Jewish calendar) and there is a feeling that just as Joshua was allowed to begin conquest once the time of punishment was over, so will Israel begin to throw off the chains that the Arabs and the rest of the world have placed on her.

All of this might be simply an academic question if 2007 didn’t also include one other notable event. Throughout her history, Israel has been required to observe a Sabbatical Year (or a year of rest) every seven years. In these years, there is supposed to be no tilling of the soil, debts are to be forgiven and other things that call the people back to God. Thus, a group of seven years that ends with a Sabbatical Year is viewed as a cycle that Israel must complete.

A reference to this cycle is found in the prophecies of Daniel 9:20-27. In this prophecy, Daniel is told that 69 of these 7-year cycles are to be completed before the Messiah will be cut off from his people. After this, one additional cycle is given in which a terrible man will come and defile the Temple before Israel can be saved by the Messiah. Christians believe that Jesus is the Messiah and that after his death and resurrection in AD 30, there has existed a gap in the Jewish cycle in which the Church Age exists. The belief among many theologians is that once the Church is raptured, the final cycle will begin with the Antichrist signing some sort of pact with Israel. But, since the prophecy seems to discuss events in light of the 7-year cycle of years that Israel observes, some theologians think that the treaty that the Antichrist signs with Israel will occur around Rosh Hashanah of the first year of a 7-year cycle of years. This would in turn imply that the rapture would occur in a Sabbatical year.

Now we come back to the importance of 2007. The actual count of Sabbatical years has been lost to history, although two different men looked at historical documents and reconstructed when they though the various Sabbatical years fell. One calculation (and the one used by the Israeli government) has Rosh Hashanah of 2007 (Sept. 13) start the Sabbatical Year of the current cycle. The other method of calculation (which I think meshes better historically) would have the Sabbatical Year start on Rosh Hashanah 2008.

Whichever cycle is correct, Eschatologists and theologians are practically giddy with excitement over the possible turn of events starting around May of this year and ending in September of 2009.

So what do I think? I concede that this does look like an interesting set up and that there are a lot of signs pointing towards the End of Days. However, I also note that my own studies have suggested that the start of the 7th millennium is still a few years away (unlike many people who rely on Bishop Usher’s calculations) and I’m also cautious of any attempt to calculate the start of the End of Days. We are told that the Day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night and that of the day, no one knows its beginning save the Father Himself. So, while I will keep a curious eye out at the newspapers, I would not advise anyone to sell their house and go sit on a hill anytime soon.

Monday, January 22, 2007

One Game Left

Well, I was wrong in both my predictions for this week. I was firmly convinced that New Orleans would take advantage of a lax Bears defense and I thought that the beast that was the New England Patriots would be too much for the Colts. Obviously, I don’t know what I’m talking about, but that’s okay.

I didn’t pay as close attention to the NFC Championship game. I find sloppy games rather boring and the New Orleans ineptness was particularly difficult to watch. Then, the Bears failing to take advantage of it were also a little disappointing. Realistically, the game should have been 24-7 at the half, with the Bears just grinding down the Saints for the rest of the game. If the Bears punter had not done such a good job of pinning the Saints to such poor field position, New Orleans could very easily have come back and won the game. But the Bears finally wore out the Saints defense and poured it on at the end. Congrats to the Bears for making the Super Bowl. Hopefully their defense plays as well there as it did yesterday.

The late game was very nerve racking for me. In the NFC game I really didn’t care who won. On the AFC side, I was really hoping the Colts would win just so we wouldn’t have to hear any more slurping of the Brady-Belichick duo and so we wouldn’t hear any more of the “Peyton can’t win the big one” talk. At first, I was despairing that my prediction would be right, especially after Manning tossed that interception for a score and the Pats were up 21-3. Mrs. X and I switched it over to watch the Simpsons rerun after that. But the Colts drove the field for a field goal right at halftime and having noticed that and knowing that the Colts would get the ball to start the second half, I decided to give the game another chance. I was glad I did and I started getting my hopes up once the Colts managed to tie it up. I was sure the Pats were going to find a way to pull off another last minute miracle, just as they had done so many times before. In fact, after the Colts tied the game at 31, I commented to Mrs. X that the Colts had left too much time on the clock and that the Patriot would go ahead with little left on the clock. I was partially right. The Pats committed a procedure penalty that forced them to kick the go-ahead field goal with more time left on the clock than they wanted (just over 2 minutes). I actually started to believe the Colts were going to win after they added the extra point to force the Pats to get a touchdown. That meant Brady had to be more aggressive and could play into the Colts strength of a secondary. I actually thought the Pats would drive near the 20 or 30 and have Brady throw into the endzone as the game clock expired to see who would win. But, instead a pick was thrown and the game ended.

Early on, I’m leaning towards the Colts in the Super Bowl. I’ve maintained that the AFC was better than the NFC and I think that Rex Grossman will make a couple of bad throws against the Indy defense that will allow the Colts to dictate tempo. Of course, I could be completely off and the Bears will dominate the game. We shall see in 13 days.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Some New, Some Old

Before I get started with this weekend's games, I just want to say that I did watch some of the Florida beat down of Ohio St. and had intended to say something, but I got swept up in things and didn't get a chance last week. All I can say now is that it seems that the Ohio St. fans were not the only ones who were looking for a coronation rather than a contest. Kudos to Florida, although they should send a very, very large fruit basket to UCLA for allowing them to even be in the game.

Now to the NFL. I watched a little bit of all four games, although I didn't get to watch any game in its intirety due to various household tasks that need to be done (stupid toilet). I had a feeling that New England could win their game with San Diego, but I was surprised as to how shaky NE actually looked during the game. They didn't really win it as much as San Diego handed it to them. Several very sloppy and unpoised moments gift wrapped that game to a much more mentally strong New England team.

I was actually more surprised that Indianapolis secured a win against Baltimore. Baltimore's offense has not been very good this past year, but I would have expected more than 6 points out of it, especially against the Indy defense that still has quite a few holes in it. Still, I'm not going to complain, especially as Baltimore did nothing but talk about how they were going to all but kill members of the Colts. The Ravens (and their fans) are a rather thuggish group and I like to see bullies get slapped around a bit.

On the NFC side, the Bears looked quite mortal in their win against Seattle. Seattle made a lot of mistakes and the Bears never capitalized. The Saints will be a lot more hungry and I think that even though New Orleans gives up the big play a lot, they will still be quite a match for the Bears. If the weather turns cold and windy, that might favor the Bears, but Shaun Alexander put up a good game and I see no reason why the Saints dual threat running game won't hammer the Bears just as hard. I can't make too many comments on the Saints as I only saw the last 5 minutes of the game. Mrs. X and I were busy laughing at the hilarity that is The Office: Season 2.

I think its fairly obvious that I think the Saints will win the NFC championship unless the Bears defense rights itself in a hurry. Things are not so clear on the AFC side. In the playoffs, New England has owned Indianapolis and I don't think that having the game played in Indy will change that. On the other hand, both teams have looked very mortal and with both teams knowing each other as well as they do, one gets the feeling that its Indianapolis' turn. I would like to see this as I am already quite sick of the "will Peyton Manning ever win a Super Bowl?" talk. This season has been set up to allow Peyton Manning and the Colts exercise their demons and get over the hump. So, my head tells me to pick New England and my heart tells me to pick Indianpolis. I'll have to get back to you on who I'm going to take in the game.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Year in Review

Here’s a fun little game. Take the first line of the first post for every month last year and see if you can spot a trend in what you talk about on your blog. Mrs. X did this and I thought we’d see what I talk about:

January:
“Yesterday, at church, the pastor gave a little sermon about reading and studying the Bible.”
(A post about some of my theological research).

February:
“To quote Bart Simpson, ‘I didn’t think it was possible, but this both sucks and blows.’”
(Steelers win Superbowl)

March:
“So the Oscars were on last night.”
(I do a little entertainment now and then).

April:
“The West Wing has been referred to as ‘if Hollywood had run the Clinton White House.’”
(Entertainment review mixed with some politics).

May:
“Well, its election time here in Ohio.”
(More politics).

June:
“I recently read a post on Real Clear Politics that accused RFK Jr. of reviving the Democratic shriek of how Ohio was stolen in 2004 to discredit Ken Blackwell, who is now running for Governor.”
(Even more politics).

July:
“Two down, two to go.”
(Israeli-Lebanon/Gaza War post)

August:
“Several months ago, if you had said that Joe Lieberman was going to lose the Democratic nomination for Senate, most people would have laughed at you.”
(I’m noticing a trend here).

September:
“I apologize for being away for over a month.”
(The meat of this post was about Pope Benedict’s comments about Muslims)

October:
“Well, things went to hell for the Bengals this weekend.”
(Finally getting into football posts again).

November:
“Well, it becomes official sometime today that the Democrats have officially won both the House and Senate.”
(Politics in November. Shocking!)

December:
“So a few things happened on the way to the Ohio St.-USC game.”
(More football).

So I think we can all see that I’m something of a political junkie (at least during election years), but I enjoy mixing a little sports and eschatology in as well. If you like those, please stick around. If not, I’m sure there are more nice blogs out there for you.

NFL Playoffs: Round Two

Happy New Year ( a week late).

So the first week of the playoffs is over. I had been intending to post my picks before the game, but I never got around to it. As it stands, all the higher seeds won. I had thought about picking the Cowboys over the Seahawks as the most likely upset, but even there I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. The game ended up being closer than I thought it would, but it’s the final that matters.

So now we go onto the next round, starting with the NFC. Seattle at Chicago should be the most lopsided of the four games. Seattle came in and got thumped back in October. Granted, they will have Shawn Alexander back and the Chicago defense is more beaten up, but the Seattle defense is in tatters. The Bears should have little problem pounding the ball, mixing in a few short passes (and maybe one bomb here and there) and completely control the game. If Rex Grossman commits 5 turnovers, I could see Seattle winning this game, but there is no need for high-risk offense and the Bears should be able to just grind Seattle down.

Philadelphia at New Orleans is a much harder game to pick. Philly’s offense didn’t look that great against the Giants, but they are riding a hot streak right now. New Orleans has a very good offense, but their defense gives up the big play a lot. I think if Drew Breese is careful with the ball and doesn’t throw picks in the end zone, New Orleans will win in an squeeker. But any major mistakes by the Saints will result in an Eagles win.

On the AFC side, Indianapolis will face the Ravens in a match-up of the two Baltimore teams. The game matches up Indy’s high-powered offense vs. Baltimore’s stingy defense. Defense usually wins, but I’m not sold that the Ravens are as good as everyone thinks they are. But, in Baltimore, the Colt’s defense will not be able to run like at home and against Jamal Lewis, the Colt’s will get very tired, very quickly. I lean towards Baltimore in this game, because of ball-control offense (as the Chiefs were supposed to do) rather than any great performance of the Baltimore defense.

Finally we have New England at San Diego. New England was not overly impressive yesterday. If the Jets had managed to punch it into the end zone rather than settle for field goals, New England would have had a much harder time of it and might have lost the game. Still, they are resourceful, and it’s hard to go with Marty Schottenheimer (who has lost a lot of playoff games) vs. Bill Belichek. New England’s defense will pressure Philip Rivers, but I think LaDamien Tomlinson will play enough of an equalizer to get San Diego to the next round.