Into the Valley of Elah

The Israeli government just released a preliminary report that is highly critical of Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz in the recent war with Lebanon. The final report is due in July, but the even the preliminary report is so scathing that the two men will probably be forced to resign their posts sometime in the next two months.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah and Hamas are starting to get a little more desperate. Things haven’t gone that smoothly for them and their own local populaces are starting to get testy. Syria recently was forced to put down a minor uprising among its Kurdish population and even Iran is clamping down on protesters. All these things indicate that the leaders of these various movements are going to need a good distraction.

The always-obvious choice is to attack Israel and unite in a broad war. This prospect gets even juicier when you realize that at the point of resignation, the Israeli leadership will be in a state of chaos. The Arabs will not want to wait too long to attack following the resignations because there is a legitimate chance that Israel could call new elections and Benjamin Netinyahu will come into power. He will organize the military to fight back in ways that are more detrimental to the Arabs and a key opportunity will have been lost.

Couple this with the fact that Israel will celebrate Jerusalem Day in a couple of weeks (May 16), marking the 40th anniversary of the capture of Jerusalem. This type of celebration will stick heavily in the craw of the Arabs. I would look for some kind of incident anywhere from 2 to 8 weeks from now, touching off another conflict, perhaps trying another sneak attack on a Jewish holiday such as Pentacost. The wheels are in motion.