Welcome to the Planet Hoo-ston

I'm in Houston, TX for business this week and the next. I was actually supposed to arrive here on Monday, but a major snowstorm hit Cincinnati that day and the plane I was on had a deicing malfunction. By the time they were in a mode to get it fixed, the flight had been cancelled. So I and my co-worker were switched to an American flight to Chicago where we were to pick up another flight to Houston.

After sitting around the airport for nearly 11 hours (including a boarding and a disembarking of the first plane) I was finally aboard the flight to Chicago. That was then in-turn delayed nearly an hour and a half because the deicing machine ran out of fluid and had to get refilled. So a flight that was supposed to leave Cincinnati at 5:30, didn't leave until a little after 7. We gained an hour into Chicago but still landed nearly a half an hour after our connecting flight had left.

American gave us a partial voucher for a nice hotel in Chicago. Unfortunately, the person working the ticket counter didn't tell us that our bags would be held at the gate and sent on ahead on the first flight to Houston. So we waited an additional hour and a half at the luggage carousel before we got the story straight from the lost bag folks. So after all that, we crashed at the hotel.

Things got a little better the next day. The wrong gate was printed on our tickets but we corrected ourselves long before our flight left. On boarding, something was wrong with my ticket and they issued me a new seat number, only to find out that someone was already sitting there. Fortunately, the seat next to him was empty and I was told to sit there. The flight was only slightly delayed and we finally landed in Houston around 1 pm Tuesday afternoon. We were supposed to arrive around 8 am Monday morning.

Houston itself isn't bad. It's funny to see the people bundling up in tight coats when it only gets to 50 degrees. After the snow storm, this feels balmy to me. I have gotten a comment or two when I went out to the shop to look at some equipment wearing no coat and just a short sleeve knit shirt. But, I would probably be dying in July and August while they didn't feel it.

Can't say I would want to live here, but it's not the worst place I've visited earlier. Here's the overhead shot of where I am:

RI-1

Camelot is now officially over. It's been over for a while but yesterday Patrick Kennedy, son of Ted and representative for Rhode Island's first district, announced that he would not seek reelection. As such, when the new Congress convenes in January 2011 it will be the first time that no one from the Kennedy clan has not been in either the Legislative or Executive Branch of government since Jan. 1947.

Kennedy had been trailing in the polls and his numerous scrapes with the law may have finally been catching up to him. State Representative Jon Brien (D) had been mulling a primary challenge against Kennedy and now it appears that he could easily step in as the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee will likely be State Representative John Loughlin.

The removal of Kennedy from the equation will probably ensure that this seat stays Democratic. Kennedy had a lot of personal baggage that could have been used against him. Without that baggage, the seat should easily revert to it's natural liberal tilt.

PA-12

Yesterday, the representative of PA-12, John Murtha (D), died due to complications from gall bladder surgery. These complications are believed to have been the result of a nicked instestine that allowed infection to set in. Needless to say, a lawsuit by the family is probably in the offering.

PA-12 was expected to be competitive (McCain won the district in 2008) but Mr. Murtha had managed to beat back some very robust challengers over the years. With his death, the race effectively moves into toss-up status. Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to set a date for a special election which must be held no sooner than 60 days after the declared vacancy (yesterday). The expectation is that the special election will be held on May 18, which is already slated as the date for various primaries (effectively saving Pennsylvania a little money).

Two Democrats had declared primary challenges to Mr. Murtha (although neither was expected to do much): Naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri and attorney Ron Mackell. On the Republican side, the two declared candidates were 2008 nominee Tim Burns and Army veteran Bill Russell. No mention has been made, but one would expect the special election to be an open field with all four (or more) candidates on the ballot. It is also possible that party leaders from both sides could simply decide on their candidates (sans primary) and just field two names. Things will become clearer in the coming days.

It has also been pointed out that the death of Mr. Murtha now puts the HealthCare Bill in serious trouble in the House. The first version passed with 220 votes (218 needed for passage). Since then, the lone Republican who voted for it, Joseph Cao, has stated that he will not vote for it again and Robert Wexler (FL-19) has resigned to take another job. With Mr. Murtha's death, there are now only 217 votes, meaning that Ms. Pelosi will have to flip a "no" to pass the bill. In reality, she would have to flip two votes as Neil Abercrombie (HI-1) will be resigning effective Feb. 28.

Good Game

Arguably, Super Bowl XLIV was the best Super Bowl I've seen since Super Bowl XXXIV. I don't think it was better than that one, but it was certainly a good game. I was somewhat dismissive of the Saints, especially after they went for it and lost on the 4th and goal at the 1. But something seemed to happen when the Saints in turn stopped the Colts from running out the clock in the 1st half and they managed to tack on the field goal at the end of the half. That gave the Saints life and then they grabbed the momentum whole hog on the very ballsy on-side kick call.

I actually was hoping that the Colts would have held on to win 24-13 or (once the Saints had pushed it to 24-17) that the Colts could take it to overtime to win it 30-24. Either of those scores would have given me the final score in my boxes and gotten me $40. But such is life. Congrats to New Orleans.

The commercials sucked hard this year. Many were overly sexist and exceptionally crude in their humor. The Doritos commercials were especially bad. There were only three commercials that I enjoyed:

1. Coke: Simpson's - It was simple but full of standard Simpson's visual humor.
2. Doritos: Boyfriend/kid - A kid telling off a potential boyfriend for his mom was actually funny and not offensive, like the rest of the Doritos ads.
3. Monster: Beaver violist - This one was a bit stupid but it had good music overlaying it and it didn't overplay the jokes.

I'd give a passing mention to the Budweiser: Comet and the Dockers: No Pants ads. The Comet only because it had Francois Chau from Lost and the Docker's because it had a catchy tune and that WTF is going on moment.

There is one other ad that seems to be talked about a lot. The Audi: Green Police ad. When I first saw the ad, I was a little turned off because the satire of it was lost on me. Perhaps it was the way Audi was presenting the car as a solution, but there was an element of believability to it and any aspect of a secret police (from whatever cut they may be) stands the hairs on the back of my neck. In hindsight, it's easier to see the satire of the ad and it's humorous intent, but it still gives me a vague, uneasy feeling.

Super Bowl XLIV Predictions

We got the pool assignments for the Super Bowl today. My best squares are Indy4-NO3 and Indy0-NO4. I also have Indy7-NO5 which isn't that bad. So I figure I've got a decent chance to win one of the quarters.

I don't know what my university would have served for Indianapolis at our annual Super Bowl parties. I have a friend who grew up in Indy but I haven't had a chance to ask him what he thinks they would have served. I'm sure Gumbo and Jambalaya would be served for the New Orleans side of the cafeteria.

As far as the actual game goes, I think Indy will win. I think the game will be a back and forth affair and it could come down to who has the ball last. But I expect Indy's experience will give them and edge. New Orleans will probably be a bit overwhelmed and suffering from the gee-whiz factor. Indy (and especially Peyton Manning) is likely to come out and treat this as just another football game.

It should be a good game and I'm hoping the commercials are a little better this year as well. I think the best thing for me is that I honestly don't care who wins. I like Indy and will probably root for them, but I like New Orleans too and would have no problem whatsoever if they win. Hopefully, it's an entertaining game.

Update: Mrs. X sent this link to me. I think GHW Bush tops SB 41 but the rest go to the SB for a final of SB 23, Presidents 21.

FL-19

FL-19 is the northern reaches of the greater-Miami region, straddling Palm Beach and Broward counties. The seat had been held by Robert Wexler, but he resigned recently to take over the presidency of the Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation.

A special election is scheduled for April 13 in which State Senator Ted Deutch (D) will face off against Ed Lynch (R). FL-19 has never elected a Republican in it's 18-year history. President Obama won the district 65-34 so one would expect Mr. Deutch to win relatively easily.

I'm also assuming that whomever wins will be sworn in and then immediately have to defend the seat in the Nov. 2 elections. Florida's general primary is August 31, so I would imagine that the loser of this special election would have to face the same competition he had for the original nomination (having been proven a loser).

Ideology

This is an interesting compilation of statistics.

The country as a whole polled 40-21, conservative to liberal. Ohio ranks dead center (25th) at 38.9-18.7 (pretty close to the national average).

OH-2

In theory, every election should put every House seat in play. However, due to gerrymandering, this simply isn't the case. As such, the best one can do is note how the seats are currently laid out and cover the races you know something about or think will be interesting. For reference, here are the current House districts and their current party affiliation:The best way to start off is always with your own district. In my case, OH-2:OH-2 has been represented by Jean Schmidt since Sept. 2005 when she won the special election to replace Rob Portman, who had been tapped by President Bush to become Trade Representative.

Ms. Schmidt has never been that popular (as she has the reputation of being beholden to the Republican leadership rather than conservative principles) and probably would have been defeated in 2006 if OH-2 were not structured to be a strong Republican district (50.58-49.32). To her credit, she has managed to successfully fend off challengers in the primaries and has now amassed enough time in the House to earn some ranking.

The current declared Democrats are Jim Parker, David Krikorian, and Surya Yalamanchili. As the Primary filing deadline is Feb. 18, it is unlikely that any more candidates will be declared. Of the three, Krikorian is probably the favorite to win the nomination.

On the Republican side, Ms. Schmidt is being challenged by Bryan Hawkins and Michael Kilburn. Mr. Kilburn is the most amusing as he made something of a name for himself in 2009 by refusing stimulus money on behalf of Warren County, referring to it as "Obama's filthy money." This earned him a spot as Keith Olberman's Worst Person, that day. Of course, even with this notoriety, it is very unlikely that either Mr. Hawkins or Mr. Kilburn will generate enough momentum by May 4 to unseat Ms. Schmidt for the nomination.

Whomever the candidates are (and I would strongly bet on Ms. Schmidt being one of them) the district is rated somewhere in the leans Republican to Likely Republican range, indicating that without a major change of fortunes or a serious self-inflicted wound, the district will stay red next year.

Of course, the lines will be redrawn for the 2012 race (Ohio is expected to be reduced from 18 districts to as low as 16) so who knows who the set up will be then. Mrs. X thinks it is likely that we get sucked into the Third district, but we shall just have to see. OH-3 is currently held by Mike Turner, who currently has no declared opposition from either party.

Separate Realities

The final season of Lost premiered last night and the main theme for this season seems to be the confluence of two different timelines: one where the show proceeded as normal and one where the plane never crashed.

Probably the biggest thing to remember about the second timeline is that the point of departure (POD) is not the plane not crashing in 2004 but the complete sealing of the EM rupture at the Swan station. As such, the Swan was never built or never built as we know it and the timeline evolved in a different way. Time has diverged drastically on the island (to the point that it is now underwater) and small butterflies have emerged in the timespace outside the island (Jack only got one extra bottle of alcohol from Cindy, Shannon stayed in Australia, Hurley not believing he is cursed, etc.).

The major fly in the ointment about the alternate timeline is Desmond. In normal timespace, Desmond would be living his life as he saw fit. We don't know the status of Charles Widmore (perhaps he went down with the island) and as such, Desmond probably never went on the sailing race. He might be living with Penny or he might have never met her. He was shown sitting next to Jack after Jack returned from the bathroom, but he subsequently disappeared during landing. It is possible that Desmond is still operating as a variable, jumping not only in time, but now in dimensions as well.

I suspect that the two timelines will fuse back into one by the end of the series; but what this will accomplish, I haven't the foggiest.

One other thing. I don't think Sayid has truly come back to life. Dead is dead. I suspect that Jacob may have used Sayid's dying body to provide a host for himself. If Smokey can use Locke to create an altered existence for himself, why can't Jacob use Sayid's body for a similar purpose.

Hawaii Special Election

Not much on tap election-wise at the moment. Illinois is having it's primaries tomorrow and here in Ohio, there is a special election in my county to float a school levy. It will probably fail and the explosion in that school district will probably be very nasty.

However, there is another election coming around the bend that might be interesting. Back in December, the representative for Hawaii's first district (Neil Abercrombie-D) announced that he will resign from his seat to run for governor of Hawaii. Hawaii law stipulates that the seat will remain vacant for 70 days and at some point after that, a special election will be held. This election is open entry and the candidate with plurality will be declared the winner.

This has triggered a little bit of interest as the Republicans already had coalesced around a candidate who they had planned to run against Mr. Abercrombie, Charles Djou. On the Democratic side, there are two principle candidates: Ed Case (a blue dog) and Colleen Hanabusa (a more traditional liberal). Under normal circumstances, one would expect the Democrat to win this race (HI-1 is mostly the city of Honolulu and the surrounding suburbs). However, the inclusion of two Democrats with dissimilar views against one Republican has created an inverse NY-23 race. That doesn't mean that the Republican will win, but it gives him an even better chance.

Despite his announcement in December, Mr. Abercrombie has not actually resigned yet so there is still the 70-day waiting period to go through. One would assume that he's working out something with the governor about when would be a good time for the election to be held. But, once he does, it'll give us another race to follow and read more things into it that are most certainly wrong.