Thursday, September 08, 2016

60 Day Assessment

With the conclusion of Labor Day and last night's Commander-in-Chief discussion, we are officially in the stretch of the political season where the common man is going to start paying attention. So what are we to start looking for?

Mrs. Clinton obviously starts off with a significant advantage in that she can lose a number of states that Mr. Obama won and still win the Presidency. What's more, she gets major leg ups from having several large electoral vote states securely in her back pocket (California, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts). But that doesn't mean that it is impossible for Mr. Trump to win. He just has to win back purple states. Making inroads into lighter blue states wouldn't hurt either.

Let's establish a baseline. In the 2012 contest, Mr. Romney won 206 Electoral Votes. Of the states won by Mr. Romney, only North Carolina is probably at any real risk. Yes, there has been talk about Georgia and Texas coming in to play but I think we are several years away before that becoming a reality. I also believe that the combination of softer support for Mrs. Clinton among African-Americans and Mr. Sanders die-hards (prominent among the young and intellectual elite) will put North Carolina firmly out of her reach. So I think that 206 EVs is a pretty good floor for Mr. Trump.

Now, we have three options for this contest: Clinton landslide, Trump landslide and close race. A Clinton landslide is pretty basic. If things turn out much as they did for Mr. Obama in the polling and reporting of returns on election night, game's over and we have the first female President. But that's no fun to write about so let's play with the other two.

For a close race to happen, there needs to be two additional factors at play: a reduction of the strength of the Obama coalition that elected him and higher turnout from conservatives. It is difficult to say if the second element will happen. Mr. Trump is not a conservative in just about any sense. He is a populist who does not have a problem wielding the power of government to achieve America-centric aims. But in the wake of eight years of Mr. Obama, conservatives might turn out if only because Mr. Trump is using fighting rhetoric. So let's say they do turn out a bit better than in 2012.

There is evidence that the first factor is already happening. As noted above, Mrs. Clinton does not seem to be galvanizing the African-American vote the way Mr. Obama did. A number of them might stay home or vote for someone else (perhaps Trump or third party). There are also the Sanders supporters who refuse to get over it. Again, there may be a depressed turnout in the youth vote or a higher percentage for Ms. Stein of the Green Party or even Mr. Johnson of the Libertarians. I doubt it will be of a critical scale, but it might be enough to make things interesting.

First to go is Florida. This was a close state for Mr. Obama and in my previous post I noted that a depressed turnout among African-Americans will kick this over to Mr. Trump. I also have a feeling that a small state is in play, perhaps Iowa or New Hampshire. Mr. Obama won both of these states 52-46 but I think at least one of them is going to sway away from that. That gets Mr. Trump up to between 239 and 241 EVs depending on which state turns.

That then would put the contest entirely on the results of Ohio and Virginia. I should point out that if Mr. Trump fails to carry one of those two little states (Iowa or New Hampshire), this part is moot as Mrs. Clinton will have 272 EVs and the contest is over. But now everything hinges on these two states. If Mrs. Clinton were to carry either, she wins. If Mr. Trump carries both, he wins.

That would seem to make things a done deal given that her running mate is a Senator from Virginia. True but again, with a depressed African-American turnout, Virginia gets thrown back into the mix. Mr. Trump is also currently shown to have a high level of support from the military and Virginia has a strong military presence. So this state could be more in play that originally thought. It will essentially come down to the military/rest of the state vs. NoVA and Richmond. Mrs. Clinton will likely crush Mr. Trump in NoVA but if the numbers in Richmond aren't high enough, Mr. Trump could overtake her. This will be the watchword for Virginia come election night.

As for Ohio, Democrats win when they run it up in the three main cities, tack on a little extra in the working class areas of Toledo and Youngstown and then pull in a majority in Appalachia. This is another state where depressed turnout from African-Americans in Cleveland and Cincinnati combined with intellectual third-party voting in Columbus could throw things to Mr. Trump. I think the tell for Ohio will be the eastern edges. If these come in red, Mr. Trump has a chance. If they come in blue, Mrs. Clinton will win.

So that is option two. What would it take for a Trump landslide? Basically, there would need to have the depressed Democrat turnout and elevated conservative turnout as noted above. There would also need to be a significant defection in the blue-collar, union Democratic vote. If this were to happen, Mr. Trump could stand to take states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Even if he doesn't actually take them, If there is any significant hesitation in calling these three states for Mrs. Clinton, it will mean that Mr. Trump will have made in-roads and that it will be a close election.

Should he actually win one of them, the contest is over. If Michigan or Pennsylvania goes to Mr. Trump, he will almost certainly win Ohio and then Virginia won't matter, though he might win there too with those kind of numbers. I think that would take a significant effort and a very angry or depressed electorate, but it is possible.

From my perspective, a minimal Trump win is going to be the Romney states plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Iowa or Nevada could be in play as well but that gets him to the 270 needed. Virginia will probably be the most closely watched state, although Ohio is likely not far behind. The real kicker will be if any of the upper mid-West waivers in their blueness. If they are solid, I'd go with Mrs. Clinton to win. If they waiver, Mr. Trump is viable. If any fall, Mr. Trump wins.

Time will tell how close things will actually get.