Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Vision Test

This is not the official Chicago 2016 poster. Can you spot what's wrong with it?

Obama Look-A-Likes

A while back, I posted that someone had shown that Mr. Obama had a bit of a resemblance to Pharaoh Ahkenaten. Aussie Dave just posted another "looks like" for Mr. Obama that's a pretty good match.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

A Point About Cash For Clunkers

Dealers are starting to wake to the hangover from the Cash for Clunkers program. Yes it stimulated purchasing for new cars, but it crammed about half a year of demand into a couple of months. As a result, dealers are looking at some very lean months ahead. A short term high resulting in a long term down (sounds like a drug trip).

One other little point that someone came up with as follows:

A vehicle at 15 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 800 gallons a year of gasoline.
A vehicle at 25 mpg and 12,000 miles per year uses 480 gallons a year.
So, the average Cash for Clunkers transaction will reduce US gasoline consumption by 320 gallons/car per year.
They claim 700,000 vehicles – so that’s 224 million gallons / year.
That equates to a bit over 5 million barrels of oil.
5 million barrels of oil is about ¼ of one day’s US consumption.
And, 5 million barrels of oil costs about $350 million dollars at $70/bbl.
So, we all contributed to spending $3 billion to save $350 million.

Short term lift. Long term headache.

Monday, September 21, 2009

The Future Governors Slate

Last time I noted the two governor's races that will be decided this November. Even though it's more than a year away, I thought I'd list the governorships that would be up in 2010, since the candicacy of Gov. Paterson (D-NY) has been in the news lately.

States where the governor is seeking relection:
New Hampshire - John Lynch (D)
Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (D)
Connecticut - Jodi Rell (R)
New York - David Paterson (D)
Maryland - Martin O'Malley (D)
Ohio - Ted Strickland (D)
Illinois - Pat Quinn (D)
Arkansas - Mike Beebe (D)
Iowa - Chet Culver (D)
Nebraska - Dave Heineman (R)
Texas - Rick Perry (R)
Colorado - Bill Ritter (D)
Idaho - Butch Otter (R)
Utah - Gary Herbert (R) (special election)
Nevada - Jim Gibbons (R)
Arizona - Jan Brewer (R)
Alaska - Sean Parnell (R)

States with an open race:
Maine - currently Democratic
Vermont - currently Republican
Rhode Island - currently Republican
Pennsylvania - currently Democratic
South Carolina - currently Republican
Georgia - currently Republican
Alabama - currently Republican
Florida - currently Republican
Tennessee - currently Democratic
Michigan - currently Democratic
Wisconsin - currently Democratic
Minnesota - currently Republican
South Dakota - currently Republican
Kansas - currently Democratic
Oklahoma - currently Democratic
New Mexico - currently Democratic
Wyoming - currently Democratic
Oregon - currently Democratic
California - currently Republican
Hawaii - currently Republican

Obviously it's way too early to speculate about anything now, but this is what will be on the docket. Plus, we'll have the senate races to look forward to as well. Should be fun.

Monday, September 14, 2009

A Return to Analysis

The legal issues that arose early this summer have now been almost completely dealt with. I hope to put the last of this to bed in October and then I can deal with the ramifications of all of it.

So in this spirit, I thought I would posit a little bit on the only two races of significance this year: the New Jersey and Virginia governorships. I know that the election of Mr. Kennedy's replacement to the Senate will also take place but there is still a lot of set up there so we won't know who the full field is until later this month.

Virginia turned blue in 2008 and has had a slate of Democratic governors in recent years. However, these have usually been in the traditional Southern Democrat model which is more conservative than their mid-Atlantic cousins. State Senator Creigh Deeds represents the Democrats while former Attorney General Bob McDonnell represents the Republicans. With the past two governorships being Democratic and a general anti-Democrat feeling running due to backlash on healthcare, Mr. McDonnell has been steadily pulling ahead since about early June. The current RCP average has him up 10 points on Mr. Deeds.

Also on the docket is the New Jersey governorship. New Jersey is a reliably Democratic state, although Republicans have been able to win state office though they tend to be a bit more liberal in their outlook. The race is a three-way between Democrat Jon Corzine (incumbent), Republican Chris Christie, and Independent Chris Daggett. More than anything else, the polls indicate a dislike for Mr. Corzine among Independents and this is probably the key on which this race will depend. At the moment it is unclear as to who Mr. Daggett is draining more votes from (Mr. Daggett is a former NJ EPA Commissioner and Deputy chief of staff to the Governor which probably indicates a larger draw of Democrats). As such Mr. Christie has consistently polled ahead, currently holding an RCP average lead of 7 points. However, it should also be noted that New Jersey is a difficult state to poll and many a race has occurred showing a Republican polling ahead, only to lose by a significant margin on Election Day. Mr. Christie will probably only be considered safe if he goes into the day with an 8-point or better lead.

If any other races start to spice up we'll have to see how those go.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Never Forget

To those who have said, ‘move on’, ‘no one cares anymore’, I say go to hell!

-Anonymous