Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Clouds in the Rust Belt

Forty-one points.

Ms. Clinton defeated Mr. Obama by this amount in the West Virginia primary last night. In the short term it gives Ms. Clinton a little boost and certainly more than enough reason to stay in the race until June 3. Ultimately though, it won’t prevent Mr. Obama from being named the Democratic nominee in August.

Long term, there are small rippling problems because of this result. Mr. Obama was not going to win West Virginia in the general election. West Virginia is solidly Democratic on a local level (much like North Carolina), but it has too much distrust of coastal elitists that it tends to vote Republican on a national level. However, West Virginia is reflecting trends that have been glimpsed in other states that might be worrying for Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama is still not performing well in the white, working-class vote. That might not worry him in states like West Virginia and North Carolina, but it should worry him in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even Virginia.

In Pennsylvania, it’s a given that Mr. Obama will destroy Mr. McCain in Philadelphia, while Mr. McCain takes it to Mr. Obama in the central portion of the state (referred to as the T). This means that the state will be won or lost in the working class districts around Pittsburgh. If Mr. Obama loses these areas by anywhere near the numbers he is losing similar counties, Mr. McCain will win Pennsylvania.

Likewise in Ohio. The African-American and more educated, liberal votes centered in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are simply not enough to win the state if Mr. Obama cannot run up margins in Toledo, Akron, and other blue-collar cities.

Mr. Obama has made a claim that he can put Virginia in play due to the growing liberal suburbs in Alexandria and by increased African-American turnout. Perhaps, but again, if Mr. Obama loses the western regions of the state by the some of the numbers that he is showing (Mr. McCain will probably win the counties overall), he will lose the state.

Loses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia could lead to loses in Michigan and Wisconsin as well, to say nothing of Missouri and North Carolina. These would heavily offset Mr. Obama’s potential wins in Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. There is a long way to go yet and either candidate may make a fatal mistake that renders all these arguments moot, but for as strong a year as this is to be for the Democratic Party, Mr. Obama is starting with far less of a lead than should be available to him.

Monday, May 12, 2008

The Slow Road

Slowly, bit-by-bit, Mr. Obama has been adding Superdelegates to his list. He is now ahead of Ms. Clinton and is clearly moving to ensure that he has all that he needs when he declares victory (strongly suspected to be May 20th after he wins the Oregon primary). Ms. Clinton will probably not concede that victory until after the Puerto Rico primary and the meeting of the rules committee regarding Florida and Michigan’s delegates.

One interesting thing to watch will be how the media and the Obama Campaign spin his loss in West Virginia tomorrow. It’s no real secret that he is going to lose and lose by a significant margin. However, I don’t think many people are fully prepared for how large a loss it could be. Based on both the demographics of the state relative to those in surrounding states and current polling, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Mr. Obama could lose to Ms. Clinton by 40 points. A number this high is probably unlikely, but a loss of more than 30 points is certainly likely. This result would only serve to bring embarrassing focus on Mr. Obama’s inability to secure working-class white voters.

Now, Mr. Obama has many months to get his house in order. Mr. McCain is certainly trying to make inroads, but he is still not overwhelmingly popular among conservatives. It is possible that Mr. McCain will make a fatal mistake trying to reach out to both sides at once. Then, it is likely that Mr. Obama will start seeing those lunch-pail Democrats come back to him. But they are still mistrusting of a perceived white-collar, coastal elitist asking for their vote. Only time will tell if he will rally the party to a crushing Democratic victory or oversee a split that will sink Democratic hopes in November.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

End of the World As We Know It? (I Feel Fine)

Swirling around the Internet over the past couple of weeks has been the observations of a pastor from a church in Washington. This pastor was perusing the NASA website on eclipse data when he noticed something significant. He noticed that in the years 2014 and 2015 there are going to be 6 eclipses (2 solar, 4 lunar) that all coincide with significant days on the Jewish calendar. In 2014, there will be lunar eclipses on Passover (Nisan 14) and the Sukkot (Tishri 15). In 2015, there will be lunar eclipses on Passover and Sukkot again as well as solar eclipses on the religious new year (Nisan 1) and Rosh Hashanah (Tishri 1).

Adding additional intrigue to this discovery is the fact that the Jewish year lasting from Rosh Hashanah 2014 to Rosh Hashanah 2015 is a Sabbatical Year (the final year of the seven-year cycle). There is a strong belief among many Christian scholars that the Tribulation will occur during an entire Sabbatical cycle. This leads to the supposition that the Rapture could occur in the Sabbatical Year just before the start of the new cycle (2008, 2015, 2022, etc.). While the pastor who made this discovery is not saying anything definitively, there is an air of excitement breeding around that these signs may be the signs preceding Jesus’ return at the end of the Tribulation. Obviously this means that the Rapture would have to occur prior to October 2008 for this to be true.

I am impressed by the pastor’s scholarship and I certainly agree with him that these signs are definitely pointing to something significant, but I am a bit skeptical that they point to the end of the Tribulation. There are a few questions that would seem to preclude the chance of the Tribulation kicking off six months from now.

First, Israel does not control Judea. Judea is mostly the land that is now controlled by the Palestinians and referred to as the West Bank. Prophecies in Isaiah and Ezekiel refer to Israel controlling these lands at the onset of the Great Tribulation. While it is possible that they might gain control of this region at the beginning of the Tribulation, it seems to me that there should be a firmer measure of Israeli control in preparation of full control of these territories prior to the signing of the treaty with Antichrist.

Second, the Gog Alliance. The alliance of nations set to attack Israel in the War of Gog and Magog is not yet set. While Russia and Iran are growing more and more aligned, they are still in the early stages of their pact with Libya and Sudan. There also has been very little movement towards bringing Turkey into the alliance, aside from a few negotiations about oil and gas pipelines passing through Turkish territory. Things are still not quite set for a war that many believe will occur either before the Tribulation or in the early stages of it.

Third, the initial position of the Antichrist. Most theories on Antichrist have been that he will rise to become Secretary-General of the United Nations and then take over everything from there. This is certainly possible. But I, and a few others like me, have begun to suspect something a little more subtitle. Europe recently signed a treaty that has created a new post overseeing foreign policy and security. In 2009, this post will be combined with the post for the Commissioner for External Relations. This new office is called the High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy and would effectively act as the Secretary of State for all of Europe. In this capacity, the occupier would sign and oversee all treaties signed by Europe as well as negotiate matters within the overall European government. It is probably the best place for a single person to confirm a treaty with Israel (given that the UN does not sign many treaties as all nations are supposed to be equal members) and then use the position to vault himself to greater prominence. However, given that the full powers of this position will not take effect until next year, it is unlikely that this person would be in a position to sign a great treaty by October/November 2008.

Fourth, the timing of the last two eclipses. If the eclipses are intended to bracket the return of Jesus, two of them are oddly out of place. Many scholars suspect that Jesus’ return will occur on Yom Kippur (Tishri 10), yet the solar eclipse occurs ten days prior to this, on Rosh Hashanah, when no great events are suspected during the Tribulation. Also, the final lunar eclipse will occur on Sukkot, the day that Jesus will officially take up rule of Earth for 1,000 years. For a period of great celebration, that seems a rather odd day to have an eclipse that will include a period of the moon becoming red like blood.

Weighing all things in the balance, though I will not preclude the possibility that the Tribulation might start in late 2008, I think it rather unlikely. Far more likely to me, is that these signs point to the beginning of something significant in 2015. Perhaps this is meant as a warning that the Tribulation will kick off in that year. But it might not. We are counseled to be watchful, but we are also warned that most people will be taken completely by surprise by the destruction that comes upon them. I would certainly love to be wrong, but I would strongly dissuade anyone with thoughts of selling their possessions and going to sit on top of a mountain to wait things out.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Obama Accending

Is it over? Well, if you wanted to get technical, it has probably been over for a while, but Ms. Clinton’s last best hope is fading quickly. The numbers I predicted and those that her camp had hoped for would have registered some sort of backlash against Mr. Obama from his supporters over the flap with Rev. Wright, Mr. Ayers, etc. Instead, Mr. Obama got a victory in North Carolina that went right down the demographic lines we have come to expect and a better than expected showing in Indiana.

Held in a vacuum, Ms. Clinton probably would have won Indiana by closer to 5 points as it’s demographics are similar to Ohio. However, Ms. Clinton lost voters who she would normally carry from South Bend and Gary. Mr. Obama’s popularity with younger voters and the strong influence of the Chicago media market seem to be the primary reasons for Mr. Obama’s strength in these areas.

With that twist put on things, it appears that the same divide that has appeared in the Democratic electorate a number of weeks ago are still there. However the numbers are now such that Ms. Clinton is very unlikely to convince the remaining 270+ Superdelegates that she should be the nominee. Mr. Obama has guaranteed that he will win the pledged delegate battle (his estimated lead is 165 delegates) and he is likely to win the popular vote as well. He is currently leading by over 700,000 votes and even if one factors Florida and Michigan in, Ms. Clinton only narrows the gap to about 100,000 votes.

Now, Ms. Clinton is going to rack up a very substantial victory in West Virginia next week and she’ll hold serve in Kentucky while losing moderately in Oregon. However, unless she couples a West Virginia annihilation with a similar bloodfest in Puerto Rico, it is unlikely that Ms. Clinton will make a credible argument even in the popular vote totals.

I’m guessing that Ms. Clinton will stick around until all the contests are over and maybe even until after the rules committee makes their formal decision on the Florida and Michigan question, but I think there is little doubt that Mr. Obama will be recognized at the Democratic nominee by July 4th at the latest.

Monday, May 05, 2008

This is the Song that Never Ends

Despite the incessant drumming, tomorrow’s results will no overt effect on either campaign. Mr. Obama is still in the lead and while two losses would be a nasty punch in the ribs, it won’t kill him. Likewise for Ms. Clinton. She’ll hear screaming for her to get out of the race if she loses both Indiana and North Carolina, but she will soldier on with good tidings just over the horizon.

My own feeling is of a split. Ms. Clinton will win Indiana. I think somewhere in the 5-7 point range is likely based on the polling I’ve seen and trends in the late-breaking deciders. Mr. Obama will win North Carolina as well. I see an 8-10 point win for him. Realistically, if he wins by any less than that, it will be seen as a sign that he is starting to bleed heavily. He should be winning this state by upwards of 12-15 points given the demographics, but there is no question that he is wounded at the moment.

Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton is looking at a couple of good contests in the next two weeks. She may win West Virginia by over 20 points if the demographics of the bordering states are any key to the nature of the state and she should cruise to a better than 10 point win in Kentucky. Mr. Obama will take Oregon, but if he wins by less than 5 it is likely to be more bad news for him.

I envision Mr. Dean and his associates to be close to pulling their hair completely out by the end of the month of May. We’ll have to see what tidings the month of June begins.

Friday, May 02, 2008

One of the more interesting things about following the horserace that is the Presidential Election is looking at polling trends within the individual states. Things are still in the embryonic stage since the Democrats don't have a nominee yet and its only May so many people are still not paying attention. But, certain trends are emerging which seem to suggest where the major battles will take place this year.

Unfortunately, only one polling firm has been conducting state vs. state polling: Rasmussen. Their polling is fine, but only having one source can give you skewed results. Since the Democratic nominee has not been decided upon, they divide things up into three categories: Obama vs. McCain, Clinton vs. McCain, and the Balance of Power Calculator. In the last one, they factor in the historic trend of the state, the current polling, and market predictors as to how to rate the state. They also have to average the results between both Obama and Clinton, which offers its own little skew on things. The results are shown graphically bellow:


Obama vs. McCain:

Clinton vs. McCain:

Balance of Power:

The Balance of power is probably the most reliable because of other little problems in polling this early. I don't believe that anyone believes that Mr. McCain is going to win New Jersey despite his polling ahead by a small margin against both Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton. I personally don't believe that Mr. McCain will win Iowa no matter who he faces unless there is a complete meltdown by the Democratic candidate. Likewise, Mr. Obama will probably not carry North Carolina despite his being tied in the polls with Mr. McCain.

At this stage in the game, its best to watch. However, I would point out that historically the anti-incumbent party is usally far ahead in polling at this stage. This has been staved off due to the continued fighting between Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton. We shall have to see by how much the winner breaks ahead of Mr. McCain initially. If it's by less than 10 points with not many swings in states like Michigan, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida, Mr. McCain could have a very serious chance at winning.