Clouds in the Rust Belt

Forty-one points.

Ms. Clinton defeated Mr. Obama by this amount in the West Virginia primary last night. In the short term it gives Ms. Clinton a little boost and certainly more than enough reason to stay in the race until June 3. Ultimately though, it won’t prevent Mr. Obama from being named the Democratic nominee in August.

Long term, there are small rippling problems because of this result. Mr. Obama was not going to win West Virginia in the general election. West Virginia is solidly Democratic on a local level (much like North Carolina), but it has too much distrust of coastal elitists that it tends to vote Republican on a national level. However, West Virginia is reflecting trends that have been glimpsed in other states that might be worrying for Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama is still not performing well in the white, working-class vote. That might not worry him in states like West Virginia and North Carolina, but it should worry him in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and even Virginia.

In Pennsylvania, it’s a given that Mr. Obama will destroy Mr. McCain in Philadelphia, while Mr. McCain takes it to Mr. Obama in the central portion of the state (referred to as the T). This means that the state will be won or lost in the working class districts around Pittsburgh. If Mr. Obama loses these areas by anywhere near the numbers he is losing similar counties, Mr. McCain will win Pennsylvania.

Likewise in Ohio. The African-American and more educated, liberal votes centered in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are simply not enough to win the state if Mr. Obama cannot run up margins in Toledo, Akron, and other blue-collar cities.

Mr. Obama has made a claim that he can put Virginia in play due to the growing liberal suburbs in Alexandria and by increased African-American turnout. Perhaps, but again, if Mr. Obama loses the western regions of the state by the some of the numbers that he is showing (Mr. McCain will probably win the counties overall), he will lose the state.

Loses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia could lead to loses in Michigan and Wisconsin as well, to say nothing of Missouri and North Carolina. These would heavily offset Mr. Obama’s potential wins in Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. There is a long way to go yet and either candidate may make a fatal mistake that renders all these arguments moot, but for as strong a year as this is to be for the Democratic Party, Mr. Obama is starting with far less of a lead than should be available to him.