The Board is Set

Now that Mr. Obama has officially claimed the Democratic nomination, we can officially gauge his chances against Mr. McCain. On the surface, this would seem to be a no-brainer. Democrats may come close to winning 60 or more seats in the Senate while the House will become a deeper shade of blue as well. There is no reason that the Democratic nominee should bully his way to the Presidency without too much trouble.

However, things are not quite as they seem. Mr. Obama is starting to see a bit of a bounce in the polls as Ms. Clinton’s supporters begin bowing to the inevitable. However, for as bad a climate as it is for the Republicans, Mr. Obama is not surging to levels that one should expect.

What’s more, Mr. Obama is not surging in states that he needs to carry if he wants to win. Yes, Mr. Obama is ahead in states that Mr. Bush carried in the past (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada), but not by overwhelming margins. What’s more, he’s not surging in Ohio, Michigan, or Wisconsin (though he is polling slightly ahead in Wisconsin as well as Pennsylvania). Michigan and Ohio represent 38 electoral votes while Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa only represent 26 electoral votes.

To give this scenario the proper lighting, if Mr. Obama flips these four western states while Mr. McCain flips Michigan and New Hampshire (a state that Mr. McCain has practically made his second home) while all other states remain as they were in 2004, Mr. McCain wins 273-265. Mrs. X, who has a better bead on the mood of Ohio politics than I do, remains quite certain that Ohio will go for Mr. McCain. Ohio staying in the Republican column will put additional pressure on the working class, conservative Democrats of Michigan and western Pennsylvania.

Mr. Obama must make peace and bring these voters back into the Democratic fold if he wants to win, or else pray that he can hold Pennsylvania through overwhelming African-American and youth turnout and that there will be enough conservative defection to Libertarian Bob Barr that he can steal Virginia or Georgia.