Assessing the States

In light of my last two posts, I thought it might be interesting to look at each state and try to handicap the 2008 race. Both Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain have talked about moving beyond the traditional red-blue states match-up that has defined the last two elections. So let’s take a look:

Maine (4) – Despite having two Republican senators, ME is a fairly liberal state. Mr. McCain might have a chance at taking 1 electoral vote due to the second district being a little more conservative (ME divides its electoral votes). However, the Democrats are going to try very hard to capture Susan Collins’ senate seat and that will drive Democratic turnout up.

New Hampshire (4) – NH is the oddball state in New England as it is more conservative and independent than the rest. In the past few years, a number of residents of Massachusetts have moved into the southern region, trending the state more into the blue column. However, there is still a large enough independent streak that the state will remain in play until the end.

Vermont (3) – VT is solidly liberal and Mr. Obama should have no problem taking this state.

Rhode Island (4) – Like Vermont, RI is solidly liberal and should not be under any threat from Mr. McCain, although his Navy background might increase his numbers enough to force Mr. Obama to advertise a little bit in the state.

Massachusetts (12) – This will be Kennedy vs. Romney in the battle of the surrogates. However with Mr. Kerry running for reelection to increase turnout, there is no reason that Mr. Obama will not easily take this state.

Connecticut (7) – CT is a tricky nut. On the surface, Mr. Obama shouldn’t have any problems carrying this state, especially as he actually won this state in the primary. However, Mr. McCain has Mr. Lieberman at his side. There is an outside chance that if Mr. Lieberman campaigns his heart out, CT could flip. It’s very unlikely, but there is that chance. Enough so that Mr. Obama will probably have to make a stop or two in the state to keep it nailed down.

New York (31) – NY is a solidly liberal state. Mr. Giuliani will stump hard for Mr. McCain, but it’s unlikely to dent Mr. Obama’s numbers enough to put the state in peril. Besides, Mr. Giuliani will probably be a little more in tune with setting up a run at the governorship in 2010.

New Jersey (15) – NJ is difficult to gauge. People in the state do not respond to polls so taking the temperature of the state is usually fraught with errors. The Democratic base is also much more Union and blue collar than in the rest of the blue mass that is the eastern seaboard. I would expect Mr. Obama to carry New Jersey, but there is going to be a real question mark about the state until we get closer to the general election.

Pennsylvania (21) – Mr. Obama will crush Mr. McCain in Philadelphia, while Mr. McCain will slap Mr. Obama pretty hard in the northern reaches and the central portions of the state. That means the fate of the state will lie in the working-class enclaves of Bethlehem, Scranton, and the Pittsburgh suburbs. This is the first state with a danger zone for Mr. Obama. He has not performed well with these traditionally Democratic groups and Mr. McCain will work very hard for their votes. The enthusiasm of Democratic governor Ed Rendell (who was a Clinton supporter) is one of the major keys for Mr. Obama to hold the state. If his machine is on full power, I think Mr. Obama keeps it in the blue column. If he is tepid in his support, Mr. McCain could take enough traditional Democrats to steal the state.

Maryland (10) – MD’s high African-American population and wealthy DC suburbs should keep Maryland in the Democratic column, as these are Mr. Obama’s largest group of supporters.

Delaware (3) – I’ve seen no polling or any other indications about DE’s temperament. However, most pundits think that it will stay in the Democratic column.

Washington DC (3) – DC has never voted for a Republican candidate since first granted the right to vote in 1962.

Virginia (13) – VA has been trending more and more blue over the past four years. Wealthy Washington elites have moved into the northern suburbs of Alexandria and Fairfax while the percentage of military votes based in the Norfolk and Newport News region has declined. A high African-American turnout could swing Virginia, especially if rural western VA turnout is down. McCain will dominate in this region and among the military. Whether it is enough to keep the state in the red column is unknown.

West Virginia (5) – WV is a holdover from the conservative Democratic years. Local politicians tend to be Democrats who are more conservative while the state elects national politicians of a Republican stripe (Robert Byrd being the exception). Given Mr. Obama’s 40+-point loss in this state, it’s hard to imagine it turning blue in November.

North Carolina (15) – NC is somewhat similar to VA, except that its percentage of wealthy elites is not very high. It does have a larger African-American population and a high concentration of young, college-age people who might actually turn out in large numbers. I think NC is less likely to flip than VA, but there is an outside chance.

South Carolina (8) – While having a large African-American population, it is unlikely that this will overturn the large Republican advantage in the state. Having Governor Mark Sanford on the VP short-list is probably also helping Mr. McCain’s image in the state.

Georgia (15) – Left to its own devices, GA would easily stay in the Republican column. However, Libertarian Bob Barr is from the state (he used to be a Republican congressman) and he might draw a significant percentage of votes from Mr. McCain. Coupled with a high African-American turnout, it could be just enough to swing the state blue. But unless Mr. Barr consistently polls above 8 points, GA should stay red.

Florida (27) – Despite being neck-and-neck eight years ago, FL has become more and more, a solidly red state. A high military presence and a large pro-Republican Cuban population have nudged the state more and more to the right over the past few years. In addition, if Mr. Obama’s troubles with the Jewish community continue, Mr. McCain could win FL by more than 10 points in Nov.

Alabama (9) – This may be on of Mr. McCain’s safest states. He has consistently polled between 20 and 30 points ahead of Mr. Obama.

Mississippi (6) – MS has the highest African-American population of any state. This has kept the numbers a bit tighter than a Republican would like from a southern state, but the rural nature of the state and it’s still overwhelming white population, should keep the state red come election time.

Louisiana (9) – LA has been more likely to turn Democrat in years past, but Hurricane Katrina accelerated a changing tide. Not only have a significant number of African-Americans remained in Houston rather than return to New Orleans, but also those that have stayed, vented their rage on the established Democratic government. With a diminished Democratic base, it’s hard to see how LA does not stay in the red column.

Arkansas (6) – Had Ms. Clinton won the nomination, this would have been heavy fighting country. But, even though AR is generally considered the most liberal of the southern states, it is unlikely that Mr. Obama will be able to make serious inroads into this state.

Tennessee (11) – TN’s Democratic party hasn’t quite caught up with the party of the rest of the country and Republicans dominate most of the statewide offices. Mr. McCain has consistently polled very far ahead of Mr. Obama in this state.

Kentucky (8) – Mr. Obama’s poor performance in Appalachia, coupled with a relatively low African-American population should keep this state solidly in the Republican column this election.

Ohio (20) – Despite OH’s vaunted claims of importance, I think the true battleground will move to a different state this election. OH will be close and there is certainly a chance that Mr. Obama could take the state if he plays his cards right. However, aside from one outlier poll, Mr. Obama has not performed well in the state. Unless there is a massive sit out by conservatives or Mr. Obama convinces the poor working classes along the river in the eastern portions of the state to vote for him, OH will stay in the red column.

Michigan (17) – MI is a state that should go for Mr. Obama, but so far is refusing to bend that way. Detroit is solidly African-American and the UAW and Teamsters unions control the suburbs. In past elections, these have been enough to overcome the more conservative regions to the north and west. However, voter anger over the fate of MI’s votes in the Democratic primary and working-class trepidation over Mr. Obama has kept this state in play. Although it’s likely that the state will fall back into the blue column as the primary fades from memory, a good push from the Republicans (especially if headed by Mr. Romney) could keep things up in the air enough to slide it into the red column.

Indiana (11) – Mr. Obama’s domination of the media market in the north of the state will keep things interesting, but IN is probably still too dominated by the Republicans for Mr. Obama to have any real shot at the state.

Illinois (21) – Mr. Obama’s home state and already pretty blue. Enough said.

Wisconsin (10) – WI is a true enigma in this race. In the past two elections, WI has been decided by a difference of 0.22% and 0.38%, the third closest and closest margins respectively. Both were decided for the Democrats and Mr. Obama’s domination in the primary as well as the power of the Chicago media market over Milwaukee would suggest that he has a leg up in the state. Still, a history of tight elections and very independent thinking suggest that either side could take WI this time.

Minnesota (10) – Mr. Obama’s brand of populism should play well in MN. Although Republicans are holding their convention in St. Paul and the state has swung back and forth in the Governor’s mansion and the Senate, there is little reason to believe that Mr. McCain has a real chance to take this state.

Iowa (7) – IA will probably stay in the blue column due to Mr. McCain’s consistent opposition to farm subsidies (a big item in IA politics) and Mr. Obama’s enthusiasm for door to door politicking. The numbers will probably swing back and forth, but I would expect IA to settle in the blue column.

Missouri (11) – MO has been trending Republican, but it sways back and forth depending on the race. Democrats dominate in the cities of St. Louis and Kansas City as well as the college town of Columbia. Republicans then dominate the rural portions of the rest of the state, leaving the outer suburbs of the large cities to decide the state. Mr. McCain starts with an advantage in this state, but it is certainly possible for Mr. Obama to rally the open-minded voters to swing his way.

Texas (34) – Although Mr. Obama believes that he will make significant inroads into the Hispanic community; it is unlikely that he will do enough to swing TX into the blue column. Mr. McCain has decent standing with Hispanics as well and given that the core of the Bush White House is from TX, it would be seen as a personal insult if TX went the other way.

Oklahoma (7) – OK is one of the more conservative states and Mr. McCain champions the no-pork cause of OK’s two very popular senators.

Kansas (6) – If Mr. Obama selects the Democratic Governor of KS, it might give him an outside shot at this fairly conservative state. But the last poll I saw had Mr. McCain leading by 20 points so I think it will stay red come November.

Nebraska (5) – NE is like KS in that there is little chance that it will go blue without a major Republican meltdown. However NE, like ME, splits its electoral votes by congressional district. There is an outside chance that Mr. Obama could take one electoral vote from this state even if he can’t win the whole thing.

South Dakota (3) – SD folks aren’t jazzed about either candidate due to the strong desire to process the oil sands of the state in opposition to their green standings. However, the conservative nature of this state is more in line with most of Mr. McCain’s other views.

North Dakota (3) – Most of the state officials are Democratic, but in the conservative Democratic vein as seen in WV. It is unlikely that this state will switch from red to blue.

Montana (3) – Of all the Great Plains states, this is the one that Mr. Obama has a real shot in. It’s conservative like its neighbors, but MT is also home to a large green movement that trends liberal. Mr. McCain’s own green stance will help him with this crowd and should deliver the state to him, but it does give Mr. Obama an opening that he is lacking in other states.

Wyoming (3) – The least populous state is dominated by the oil industry. Although I’m sure they aren’t thrilled about Mr. McCain, they are terrified of Mr. Obama. Plus with Mr. Cheney working behind the scenes, it is very unlikely that this state will be anything but deep red.

Colorado (9) – Now we come to one of the main battlegrounds of this election. CO has been trending more and more Democratic in recent elections. There is a large Hispanic population and CO’s population is also becoming more and more wealthy. The percentage of military stationed in CO is also declining. Capping it all off, the Democrats are having their convention in Denver, which will give them a lot more exposure and an open platform to present themselves to the state. Mr. Obama has been polling ahead just outside the margin of error in this state. Whoever wins, the margin is going to be razor thin.

New Mexico (5) – Like WI, NM has been decided by razor thin margins in the past two elections, the first for Mr. Gore and the second for Mr. Bush. With Gov. Richardson strongly backing Mr. Obama (and putting him in line for a possible position – maybe VP) NM seems to be swinging back into the blue column. However, Mr. McCain being from neighboring AZ and his general good standing with Hispanics will prevent Mr. Obama from pulling away and should keep NM in the thin margin for at least one more election.

Arizona (10) – This is Mr. McCain’s home state. The last poll taken had him ahead 57-37.

Nevada (5) – NV is likely to be close as well. Mr. Obama is making a push in the state, but he’s not quite gotten as much traction as he would like. The service unions in Las Vegas will help him, but the rest of the state has a very liaise-faire attitude that favors Republicans. Some work could swing the state, but its natural inclination at the moment is to the red side of the aisle.

Utah (5) – UT is very conservative is probably one of the most reliable Republican states. It’s only competitor for that title might be…

Idaho (4) – One could make a good wager as to whether it will ID or UT that will give Mr. McCain the larger margin in November. (In 2004 UT won 71.5 to 68.4)

Washington (11) – WA is a very green state and the large liberal population outweighs the more conservative population on the eastern side of the Cascades. Mr. Obama should have little trouble carrying this state in November.

Oregon (7) – OR is almost exactly like WA in its liberal coast and conservative east divide. However, OR is not quite as sharply divided as WA is. Until fairly recently, OR was a genuine battleground state. However, I would be surprised if Mr. McCain can do better than token resistance against Mr. Obama.

California (55) – Mr. McCain has talked about trying to take CA and he will certainly get a lot of help from the Governor. However, the race will probably come down to whether the large population of Hispanics in southern CA believes Mr. McCain record that favors amnesty or his rhetoric about enforcement first that he is laying on thick for the conservative base. Mr. Obama is currently running about 14 points ahead. I do not serious expect CA to flip as the loss of CA means instant defeat for the Democrats.

Alaska (3) – Alaska has been safely conservative for a number of elections. However, there is a general thought that Democrats could take both the at-large congressional seat as well as one of the Senate seats in this election. That could make Alaska a little more in play than previous elections. Alaska’s female governor is rumored to be on Mr. McCain’s VP short list.

Hawaii (4) – HI is a fairly liberal state and Mr. Obama’s birth state. He should carry it without any trouble.

In conclusion, I would suspect that most of the battlegrounds will be limited to states that we have seen before with two or three new ones thrown in for interest (CO and VA most notably). Still, it is a long way to go and much could change in the near future.