...Before the Dark Times

Last week, we all got a bit of a notice that Israel is fully prepared to do what it needs to do to ensure that Iran does not get nuclear weapons. Their little display out in Greece was both a warning and a legitimate dry run for an attack. There are several factors that influenced this:

First, most experts seem to agree that Iran might be able to start producing weapons-grade uranium in less than six months.

Second, the US presidential election might produce an administration that will not look very favorably on an Israeli bombing mission and turn the screws accordingly in a way that Mr. Bush has not.

Third, and most importantly, Russia has stepped in and sold Iran a set of field use anti-aircraft missiles that could destroy much of a planned Israeli attack force.

It is this third item that really stands out. If the Israelis have spies on the ground that are telling them that Iran can knock out an aerial assault force within two months, it stands to reason that they will attack before the defenses are in place.

A fellow with whom I sometimes discuss things like this noted that it would make sense for Israel to be planning their attack during a period of no moon. Since one can’t exactly depend on cloud cover over the course of a 900-mile flight, it would make sense that the attack would take place during the period of the new moon. The next two new moons will happen around July 4th and August 1st.

I also mention this because it is very obvious that Iran is not going to take the destruction of their nuclear reactor lying down. They might not do much more than seethe with their own army (they would have to either march through Turkey or fight through us and the Iraqis to get to Israel), but as they all but control Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, and heavily fund Hamas; it doesn’t take much imagination to see how Iran will execute its counterpunch.

I made the note about dates because of one other little fact. I personally think that an attack over the 4th of July weekend is probably too little time for Israel, making an attack at the beginning of August much more likely. August 10th is the fast of Tisha B’Av (the ninth of Av) marking a day of fasting and repentance as Jews note the day that both Temples were destroyed (by the Babylonians and Romans respectively). There are some other fasts that lead up to this date among the more orthodox as well as the whole three week period leading up to the fast is generally referred to as the “dark times” (17 Tammuz to 9 Av).

The last time Israel’s neighbors planned a major assault on her, it coincided with Yom Kippur in 1973. I would not be shocked if Iran was already telling its proxies to be ready to make a massive attack to coincide with the “dark days.” It might catch the Israelis off guard and the psychological impact of being attacked from all sides during a period of profound mourning could be devastating. One should also not discount the possibility that Syria might take the extreme measure and use non-conventional weapons in its attempts to regain the Golan and other surrounding areas. If that happens, Israel will not hesitate in turning Damascus into a glass parking lot.

I don’t know if this is exactly where we are going, but it is a scenario that is starting to become a lot more real as we roll forward.