So I was right in my week 2 prediction of the Super Bowl. I was also right in that my championship picks would be 1-1. Of course the refereeing contributed a bit, but San Francisco still ultimately lost this game rather than Seattle winning it, but that is neither here nor there.
So on to the upcoming game. Most people are focusing on the sexy match-up of Denver's #1 offense vs. Seattle's #1 defense and with good reason. But, I'm inclined to think that the game may very well be decided at the other end of the spectrum: Denver's mediocre defense versus Seattle's inept offense. I'm certain that Denver will do to Seattle almost exactly what they did to Tom Brady: stack the box to contain the running game and force Seattle to throw it. Russell Wilson is a decent quarterback, but he's no Tom Brady. His O-line didn't do a very good job of protecting him against San Francisco; fortunately, he can run, which is something that Tom Brady is not known for. Denver will probably flush Wilson out of the pocket a lot. They're going to have to try and contain him or just make sure his passes are wobbly enough that they miss their target, a job that shouldn't be too hard.
On the other side, the onus is going to be on the Denver O-line to keep Peyton Manning upright. New England never touched Manning and he destroyed them as a result. Seattle did get after Kaepernick but he has scrambling ability, a noted lack when it comes to Manning. I see Manning taking a lot of hits and the question is whether he'll be able to get rid of the ball early enough to where he can avoid turnovers. If he can do that, I think Denver has a chance to grind Seattle down and score a TD or two as the game winds down.
Two other factors must also be looked at. First the weather. Denver is a cold weather team who is somewhat used to playing in the elements, although Manning is notably less effective in those cases. Seattle, while not a dome team, does get a measure of protection in their stadium and rarely face temperatures around freezing. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-low 30's for the majority of the game, but precipitation (whether rain or snow) will likely hold off until late. Messy weather would be an advantage to Seattle as these things tend to favor defenses, but a cool to cold and dry night will likely give Denver a slight advantage.
The other factor is experience. Both teams are mostly young with a lot of new faces. But, Seattle is bringing no one with Super Bowl experience. Denver is bringing four players who have been to the dance before, Peyton Manning being the most notable, and their head coach John Fox has coached in a Super Bowl once before (his Carolina Panthers lost to New England back in Super Bowl XXXVIII). So the ability to eliminate the gee-whiz factor also favors Denver.
I think just about everyone is mixed and I think this is going to be a close game. But I see too many little things shifting Denver's way. It is also important to remember that while Seattle is a beast of a team, when away from home they have seemed far more mortal. There will be a lot of Seattle fans at the Super Bowl, but this will not be a home game with the 12th man advantage. Ultimately, I'm going to say that Denver wins the game. I think it will be close and could require 4th quarter heroics, but I still see Denver as taking the crown at the end of the day.
Friday, January 31, 2014
Friday, January 24, 2014
Monday, January 13, 2014
Championship Games
In contrast to Wild Card week, I went 4 for 4 so I'm at .500 when it comes to picking. From that we can deduce that I will get one game right and one game wrong.
1. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - I didn't watch most of the New England game so I only saw the break away when the wheels came completely off for Indianapolis. New England looked good, but anyone can look good when they break for 50+ yard runs and the other team has been forced to abandon the running game while only having one good wide receiver. In contrast to many of the sports writers out there, I didn't think that Denver looked that good. San Diego did a very good job of keeping the offense in check and it was the same passing failing that we saw in the first half of the Cincinnati game that kept San Diego off the scoreboard for three quarters. Even with a depleted offense, I don't see Tom Brady missing as many of those wide open receivers. But, New England's defense is not as big or strong as San Diego and Indianapolis was able to put 22 points on the board (keeping it to within one score) until things fell apart in the second half. The first meeting this season was close and New England rallied to win at home. I'm going to stick with Denver, only because I think Tom Brady is still missing a genuine go-to guy.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Seattle's offense is still mediocre at best. New Orleans had a real shot to win that game, especially if Marshawn Lynch is removed from the equation. It is true that San Francisco has not won in Seattle for several seasons now, but Seattle hasn't won in San Francisco either. San Francisco has more weapons than they had in their last meeting and they did a pretty good job against a good defensive team in the form of Carolina. Carolina arguably has the better offense as well and the Niners did a good job containing them. I picked a Denver-Seattle Superbowl and I'd still like to see that, but I'm not feeling Seattle at this time. They seem to be lacking something, despite that great defense. I'm going to pick San Francisco to get over the hump in Seattle and take the rubber match, although I think it will be a close match.
1. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos - I didn't watch most of the New England game so I only saw the break away when the wheels came completely off for Indianapolis. New England looked good, but anyone can look good when they break for 50+ yard runs and the other team has been forced to abandon the running game while only having one good wide receiver. In contrast to many of the sports writers out there, I didn't think that Denver looked that good. San Diego did a very good job of keeping the offense in check and it was the same passing failing that we saw in the first half of the Cincinnati game that kept San Diego off the scoreboard for three quarters. Even with a depleted offense, I don't see Tom Brady missing as many of those wide open receivers. But, New England's defense is not as big or strong as San Diego and Indianapolis was able to put 22 points on the board (keeping it to within one score) until things fell apart in the second half. The first meeting this season was close and New England rallied to win at home. I'm going to stick with Denver, only because I think Tom Brady is still missing a genuine go-to guy.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks - Seattle's offense is still mediocre at best. New Orleans had a real shot to win that game, especially if Marshawn Lynch is removed from the equation. It is true that San Francisco has not won in Seattle for several seasons now, but Seattle hasn't won in San Francisco either. San Francisco has more weapons than they had in their last meeting and they did a pretty good job against a good defensive team in the form of Carolina. Carolina arguably has the better offense as well and the Niners did a good job containing them. I picked a Denver-Seattle Superbowl and I'd still like to see that, but I'm not feeling Seattle at this time. They seem to be lacking something, despite that great defense. I'm going to pick San Francisco to get over the hump in Seattle and take the rubber match, although I think it will be a close match.
Friday, January 10, 2014
Divisional Round Match-Ups
After going 0-4 in my picks, I would advise on going opposite of whatever I pick.
1. New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Most folks, myself included, are going to pick Seattle in this game. Seattle is a very hard place to play and especially at home, the Seattle defense is very good. Still, as was shown in Philadelphia, the New Orleans defense isn't bad either and Drew Breese and the Saints offense will put some points on the board. If the Saints defense plays out of their mind, they have a chance. But I still think Seattle wins the game.
2. Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - It's not impossible to beat the Patriots at home, but it is hard. If Tom Brady had his full compliment of offensive weapons, I'd pick New England easily. But they don't. After the performance last week, you think it would be easy to pick Indy. But they were at home and one cannot overlook the fact that Indianapolis got into a 38-10 hole. If KC had killed clock or double covered TY Hilton, Kansas City would be headed to New England. In light of that, I'm leaning towards New England, mostly on the strength of being veterans. Lacking weapons, they may have to settle for FGs a few times, but I think they'll know how to crack Indy in a way that KC did not.
3. San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers - Carolina beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago. But, San Francisco is a veteran team that is unlikely to crack if things get a little out of hand. Likewise, Carolina has shown a distinct lack of ability when it comes to scoring points. This may be the lowest scoring game of the four and I actually think that will favor San Francisco. I'll take them on a narrow edge as the moment gets a little too big for Carolina.
4. San Diego at Denver - Here's where it matters. We all know Peyton Manning is great during the regular season. But he's not great in the playoffs. What's more, Denver's defense is not very good. San Diego showed a great deal of patience and dedication to the running game against a good Cincinnati defense. Imagine what they can do against Denver. What's more, as a divisional opponent San Diego is not afraid of Denver, having beaten them once already this season. Still, I'm going to stick with Denver. They are the favorite and I don't feel inclined to go against them until someone actually beats them. Or until the Superbowl when I'll be more objective.
1. New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Most folks, myself included, are going to pick Seattle in this game. Seattle is a very hard place to play and especially at home, the Seattle defense is very good. Still, as was shown in Philadelphia, the New Orleans defense isn't bad either and Drew Breese and the Saints offense will put some points on the board. If the Saints defense plays out of their mind, they have a chance. But I still think Seattle wins the game.
2. Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - It's not impossible to beat the Patriots at home, but it is hard. If Tom Brady had his full compliment of offensive weapons, I'd pick New England easily. But they don't. After the performance last week, you think it would be easy to pick Indy. But they were at home and one cannot overlook the fact that Indianapolis got into a 38-10 hole. If KC had killed clock or double covered TY Hilton, Kansas City would be headed to New England. In light of that, I'm leaning towards New England, mostly on the strength of being veterans. Lacking weapons, they may have to settle for FGs a few times, but I think they'll know how to crack Indy in a way that KC did not.
3. San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers - Carolina beat the Niners in San Francisco a few weeks ago. But, San Francisco is a veteran team that is unlikely to crack if things get a little out of hand. Likewise, Carolina has shown a distinct lack of ability when it comes to scoring points. This may be the lowest scoring game of the four and I actually think that will favor San Francisco. I'll take them on a narrow edge as the moment gets a little too big for Carolina.
4. San Diego at Denver - Here's where it matters. We all know Peyton Manning is great during the regular season. But he's not great in the playoffs. What's more, Denver's defense is not very good. San Diego showed a great deal of patience and dedication to the running game against a good Cincinnati defense. Imagine what they can do against Denver. What's more, as a divisional opponent San Diego is not afraid of Denver, having beaten them once already this season. Still, I'm going to stick with Denver. They are the favorite and I don't feel inclined to go against them until someone actually beats them. Or until the Superbowl when I'll be more objective.
Saturday, January 04, 2014
First Round Results
1. Kansas City at Indianapolis Colts - A very entertaining game and something the Chiefs are going to want to forget very quickly. In a way, it sort of represented their season in a nutshell. They jumped out to a 28-point lead, containing a potent offense (like starting 9-0 with a good defense) only to fall apart and let the other team outscore you 35-6 in the rest of the game (finishing the season 2-5). Hopefully the Colts will be just as entertaining in the second round. If I were New England, I'd be a little would be a little worried about facing a team this confident about scoring points, especially with their diminished offensive capability. (0-1)
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagle - So the Saints finally won outside of the bayou. The last eight minutes (which I missed) went pretty much what the Colts-Chiefs should have been where the Eagles got the go-ahead touchdown but the Saints had plenty of time to get into field goal range. The Saints looked sloppy the entire first half except for their running game and they should thank their lucky stars that the Eagles made just enough bad decisions that it was nearly a tied game at the half. The Saints now travel to Seattle and Drew Breese will need to be his Superdome self to overcome that defense. Seattle's offense is soft enough that the Saints defense that played against Philly could hold them down and give New Orleans a chance. (0-2)
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Good Dalton played in the first half. Bad Dalton played in the second half. It is interesting that the Chiefs and the Eagles both won the turnover battle and yet they lost. San Diego, on the other hand, won the turnover battle and won the game, as the percentages say you should. Some of this wasn't fully Dalton's fault as his O-line did not do a good job of protecting him in the second half or in creating lanes for the running game. But the key of the game really was the Bernard fumble near the end of the first half. If the Bengals had gotten a TD there, they would have gone into the locker room up 14-7 and the Bengals would never have been down by more than one score through all the bad moments in the second half. San Diego will now play Denver for a third time in a rubber match. (0-3)
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - This was about as close as I thought it would be. I missed most of the first half due to other commitments, but the second half was entertaining. As expected, things bounced back and forth and the Niners won when they were able to drive the field and kick a field goal as time expired. The key seems to be that the Packers could not contain Colin Kaepernick whenever he was flushed out of the pocket. He personally ran for over 100 yards and picked up several key first downs when needed. There was a moment late in the fourth quarter when the Packers had a chance to grab an interception but the defender couldn't hold on. So, now we look forward to a rematch between the Niners and the Carolina Panthers. Carolina won that game in San Francisco so this should be an interesting match up. (0-4)
2. New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagle - So the Saints finally won outside of the bayou. The last eight minutes (which I missed) went pretty much what the Colts-Chiefs should have been where the Eagles got the go-ahead touchdown but the Saints had plenty of time to get into field goal range. The Saints looked sloppy the entire first half except for their running game and they should thank their lucky stars that the Eagles made just enough bad decisions that it was nearly a tied game at the half. The Saints now travel to Seattle and Drew Breese will need to be his Superdome self to overcome that defense. Seattle's offense is soft enough that the Saints defense that played against Philly could hold them down and give New Orleans a chance. (0-2)
3. San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Good Dalton played in the first half. Bad Dalton played in the second half. It is interesting that the Chiefs and the Eagles both won the turnover battle and yet they lost. San Diego, on the other hand, won the turnover battle and won the game, as the percentages say you should. Some of this wasn't fully Dalton's fault as his O-line did not do a good job of protecting him in the second half or in creating lanes for the running game. But the key of the game really was the Bernard fumble near the end of the first half. If the Bengals had gotten a TD there, they would have gone into the locker room up 14-7 and the Bengals would never have been down by more than one score through all the bad moments in the second half. San Diego will now play Denver for a third time in a rubber match. (0-3)
4. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - This was about as close as I thought it would be. I missed most of the first half due to other commitments, but the second half was entertaining. As expected, things bounced back and forth and the Niners won when they were able to drive the field and kick a field goal as time expired. The key seems to be that the Packers could not contain Colin Kaepernick whenever he was flushed out of the pocket. He personally ran for over 100 yards and picked up several key first downs when needed. There was a moment late in the fourth quarter when the Packers had a chance to grab an interception but the defender couldn't hold on. So, now we look forward to a rematch between the Niners and the Carolina Panthers. Carolina won that game in San Francisco so this should be an interesting match up. (0-4)
Friday, January 03, 2014
Frozen Cheese
Remember the NFC Championship game from a few years ago (Jan. 2008) when the NY Giants upset the Green Bay Packers (Brett Favre's last game as a Packer) and how cold it was? It was -4F with a -24F wind chill and Coach Tom Coughlin had frostbite on his cheeks. That was the 5th coldest game in NFL history.
Sunday's game against San Francisco is lining up to beat that and could make a run at the Freezer Bowl (1982 AFC Championship in Cincinnati) for the #2 spot. The current forecast has a game-time temperature of -8F and an unknown wind chill. The Freezer Bowl is #2 on actual temperature (-9F) with the Ice Bowl (1967 NFL Championship in Green Bay) taking the #1 spot (-13F), although the Freezer Bowl is #1 when you factor in the wind (-59F vs. -48F for the Ice Bowl).
San Francisco isn't the warmest place to play, but it ain't Green Bay. Hopefully we'll actually be able to see the game as Green Bay hasn't sold out the game yet.
Sunday's game against San Francisco is lining up to beat that and could make a run at the Freezer Bowl (1982 AFC Championship in Cincinnati) for the #2 spot. The current forecast has a game-time temperature of -8F and an unknown wind chill. The Freezer Bowl is #2 on actual temperature (-9F) with the Ice Bowl (1967 NFL Championship in Green Bay) taking the #1 spot (-13F), although the Freezer Bowl is #1 when you factor in the wind (-59F vs. -48F for the Ice Bowl).
San Francisco isn't the warmest place to play, but it ain't Green Bay. Hopefully we'll actually be able to see the game as Green Bay hasn't sold out the game yet.
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