Salmon and Omlettes

So I was right in my week 2 prediction of the Super Bowl. I was also right in that my championship picks would be 1-1. Of course the refereeing contributed a bit, but San Francisco still ultimately lost this game rather than Seattle winning it, but that is neither here nor there.

So on to the upcoming game. Most people are focusing on the sexy match-up of Denver's #1 offense vs. Seattle's #1 defense and with good reason. But, I'm inclined to think that the game may very well be decided at the other end of the spectrum: Denver's mediocre defense versus Seattle's inept offense. I'm certain that Denver will do to Seattle almost exactly what they did to Tom Brady: stack the box to contain the running game and force Seattle to throw it. Russell Wilson is a decent quarterback, but he's no Tom Brady. His O-line didn't do a very good job of protecting him against San Francisco; fortunately, he can run, which is something that Tom Brady is not known for. Denver will probably flush Wilson out of the pocket a lot. They're going to have to try and contain him or just make sure his passes are wobbly enough that they miss their target, a job that shouldn't be too hard.

On the other side, the onus is going to be on the Denver O-line to keep Peyton Manning upright. New England never touched Manning and he destroyed them as a result. Seattle did get after Kaepernick but he has scrambling ability, a noted lack when it comes to Manning. I see Manning taking a lot of hits and the question is whether he'll be able to get rid of the ball early enough to where he can avoid turnovers. If he can do that, I think Denver has a chance to grind Seattle down and score a TD or two as the game winds down.

Two other factors must also be looked at. First the weather. Denver is a cold weather team who is somewhat used to playing in the elements, although Manning is notably less effective in those cases. Seattle, while not a dome team, does get a measure of protection in their stadium and rarely face temperatures around freezing. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-low 30's for the majority of the game, but precipitation (whether rain or snow) will likely hold off until late. Messy weather would be an advantage to Seattle as these things tend to favor defenses, but a cool to cold and dry night will likely give Denver a slight advantage.

The other factor is experience. Both teams are mostly young with a lot of new faces. But, Seattle is bringing no one with Super Bowl experience. Denver is bringing four players who have been to the dance before, Peyton Manning being the most notable, and their head coach John Fox has coached in a Super Bowl once before (his Carolina Panthers lost to New England back in Super Bowl XXXVIII). So the ability to eliminate the gee-whiz factor also favors Denver.

I think just about everyone is mixed and I think this is going to be a close game. But I see too many little things shifting Denver's way. It is also important to remember that while Seattle is a beast of a team, when away from home they have seemed far more mortal. There will be a lot of Seattle fans at the Super Bowl, but this will not be a home game with the 12th man advantage. Ultimately, I'm going to say that Denver wins the game. I think it will be close and could require 4th quarter heroics, but I still see Denver as taking the crown at the end of the day.