Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Who Makes, Who Fails?

A couple of years ago, I was listening to a sports radio show at the beginning of the NFL season and the host made a comment that over the past few seasons, there has been about 50% turnover in the teams that make the playoffs. That is, out of the twelve teams that made the playoffs last year, we should only expect six to repeat in making the playoffs. Given that we are in the middle of the current season, I thought it would be interesting to compare last year and see if that statistic looks like it will hold up.

2012-13 Playoffs:

AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. NE Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. SF 49ers
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Washington Redskins
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

First, the AFC. The current division leaders are New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City. Denver is close behind and then there are a few teams in the mix for the #6 seed. At the moment, it looks as though four teams would return to the playoffs (Denver, NE, Indy, and Cincy) with an outside shot at five if Baltimore can break out ahead of San Diego, Tennessee, or the Jets.

Now, the NFC. The division leaders are Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle. San Francisco and Detroit are rounding out the current wild card standings. This would make the NFC closer to the average as only San Francisco, Seattle, and Green Bay would be repeats. Atlanta and Minnesota are effectively done and have no shot at making the playoffs this year. Washington shouldn't but the NFC East is so bad this year that we cannot rule out the possibility that they may find a way to take the division.

So, at current standings, seven of the twelve teams in last year's playoffs would return for a .583 percentage. I'd say going over or under by one would be keeping within the statistic. Now, if Baltimore manages to get back in, that would move things more to an outlier status as 2/3s of the teams that made it last year would be back in.

Of course, anything could happen. Which is why they play the games.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Classic Who's Line

I dare you to watch this and try not to pee yourself laughing:





Monday, October 21, 2013

Almost Mid-Point NFL Playoff Standings

I know it's not quite the halfway point of the season, but this week gave us such and interesting shake-up to the playoff standings that I had to record it knowing that things are likely to shift from this later.

AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. New England Patriots
5. Denver Broncos
6. NY Jets

NFC
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Detroit Lions

There are a lot of ties in the AFC right now as the Bengals, Colts and Patriots all are 5-2. The Bengals get the nod as they are 3-1 against the AFC while the Colts are 3-2 and the Pats are 2-2. Cincinnati also has the head-to-head tiebraker with the Patriots but that's less of an issue in a three-way tie. The Jets are tied with San Diego as well, but they have a better divisional record (conference record is the same).

Things are more cut and dried in the NFC, although Seattle only gets the nod over New Orleans as Seattle hasn't had their bye yet. I see no reason as to why the NFC standings won't stay pretty close to what there is now, with only positioning being the question. I expect a lot more jostling in the AFC. I think Denver will end up on top and Kansas City will eventually settle for the #5 seed. I also expect the Bengals to fall out of the #2 slot, although I think they should end up winning the division. Likewise, the Patriots will probably win the East (although that is still questionable) and the Colts look to be running away with the South at this point. There are a lot of teams fighting over that #6 spot and I'm skeptical that the East will hold on to it.

I'm curious to see where things will be even two weeks from now when we officially pass the mid-point of the season.

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Quarter Point Standings

I like to keep track of the playoff standings at various points in the football season. It's fun to go back and laugh about how team X was actually in position to win the division and get the #3 seed at one point when they end up finishing at 6-10. Anyway, here are how things stand as of the end of the first quarter of football:

AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Miami Dolphins

NFC
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. Detroit Lions
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Chicago Bears
6. San Francisco 49ers

There are a few tiebreakers in there (such as who is actually winning the AFC North) but for the most part, things are pretty cut and dry at the moment. I'm sure this list will change a bit, especially at the bottom. However, things are already starting to look rather stark in the NFC. Honestly, I'm seeing seven teams fight for six spots (Green Bay being the odd man out currently) and a sharp divide between the rest.

The AFC has a few more teams in it as you have two other contenders for the AFC North (Cleveland and Cincinnati) as well as Houston and Tennessee. I wouldn't even rule out San Diego, the NY Jets or Buffalo at this point. Really, its only Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Oakland that look DOA at this point. I'm sure separation will occur, but it is definitely closer in the AFC (as long as you don't include the Broncos. They're blowing everyone away).