Who Makes, Who Fails?

A couple of years ago, I was listening to a sports radio show at the beginning of the NFL season and the host made a comment that over the past few seasons, there has been about 50% turnover in the teams that make the playoffs. That is, out of the twelve teams that made the playoffs last year, we should only expect six to repeat in making the playoffs. Given that we are in the middle of the current season, I thought it would be interesting to compare last year and see if that statistic looks like it will hold up.

2012-13 Playoffs:

AFC
1. Denver Broncos
2. NE Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Cincinnati Bengals

NFC
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. SF 49ers
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Washington Redskins
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

First, the AFC. The current division leaders are New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City. Denver is close behind and then there are a few teams in the mix for the #6 seed. At the moment, it looks as though four teams would return to the playoffs (Denver, NE, Indy, and Cincy) with an outside shot at five if Baltimore can break out ahead of San Diego, Tennessee, or the Jets.

Now, the NFC. The division leaders are Dallas, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle. San Francisco and Detroit are rounding out the current wild card standings. This would make the NFC closer to the average as only San Francisco, Seattle, and Green Bay would be repeats. Atlanta and Minnesota are effectively done and have no shot at making the playoffs this year. Washington shouldn't but the NFC East is so bad this year that we cannot rule out the possibility that they may find a way to take the division.

So, at current standings, seven of the twelve teams in last year's playoffs would return for a .583 percentage. I'd say going over or under by one would be keeping within the statistic. Now, if Baltimore manages to get back in, that would move things more to an outlier status as 2/3s of the teams that made it last year would be back in.

Of course, anything could happen. Which is why they play the games.