Friday, January 27, 2006

For Three Sins... Even for Four...

Things are going to go to hell for Israel very quickly this year. Yesterday we learned that Hamas has won a full majority of seats in the Palestinian parliament. Abu Mazen of Fatah is still the president, but it is Hamas that is going to be calling the shots now. News of the Hamas victory has had mixed reactions. In the West, there has been a mixture of horror and anxiety. In Arab countries, however, there has been a generally positive reaction. Iran, Egypt, Syria, and the Hezbollah elements in Lebanon have all greeted the news with jubilation. No word yet on the reaction from Jordan about this. Hamas itself is still reeling a bit from their win. I think they were unprepared for their own success and tried to even get Fatah to form the new government. Fatah declined so now Hamas is scrambling to figure out what to do. In the end, they will form a new government but probably will not back down from their objective to destroy Israel.

Now, couple this with the scheduled Israeli elections to be held in March. Also throw in that there may be something of a deadline for which to make surgical strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in either March or April. Syria is also still very twitchy about possible American advances on their border and a population that is getting restless with the current regime. Throw all these things together and the fruit of war is starting to look more and more ripe. I’m sure most people believe that the Americans are too bogged down in Iraq to make any significant coordinated effort with Israel to repel a multiple pronged attack. Especially if Iran decides to activate its forces and engage us on the Iraq-Iran border and if Hamas can coordinate with the Al-Queda cells in Iraq to disrupt our supply lines. As a result Israel would be forced to deal with the guerrilla tactics of Hamas in the south, supplied with Egyptian weapons, and hold off the Syrian army from the north with aid from Hezbollah. The true wild card would be Jordan. If Jordan stays out of it, Israel can divide its army fairly effectively. If Jordan does enter the fight, Israel then has to fight it out on the mountains of Ephraim while fending off the Syrian armies and Hamas. Then you add the fact that Syria may have some WMDs (whether of their own development or having come from Iraq is unknown) and will probably not hesitate to use them.

So, are we looking at war in a couple of months? I doubt it. I think things will need to fester for a little while. Too much has happened too fast and I think the Arab states need a couple of months to catch their breath. I’m also not totally sure they will opt for the complete surprise attack that they did in 1973. They could and achieve great success through this, but I think they might want to try and make Israel look like the bad guy. This takes time. Still, I would be rather surprised if there is not some sort of armed conflict within 18 months of now. I think the Arabs would like to try and get some sort of ironic revenge by dealing Israel a deathblow around the 40th anniversary of the Six-Day War, which is easily Israel’s greatest military victory. Of course planning that blow and delivering it are two very different things. We shall see.

Wednesday, January 25, 2006

Coffee and Steel

When I was in college, the dorm cafeteria would set the Super Bowl Sunday meal based on which two teams were in the game. For example, my freshman year we had Green Bay vs. New England in Super Bowl XXXI. So for Green Bay, the cafeteria served brats that had been boiled in beer and sauerkraut. For New England, they served New England style clam chowder. People who know me would immediately tell you that I must have eaten the brats as soup and I don’t get along. Super Bowl XXXII had Green Bay and Denver, so while the brats came back, the adjoining meal was Denver omelets. I’d never heard of them either so I stuck with the brats. I don’t remember what was offered for Atlanta during Super Bowl XXXIII but I must have had it since the alternative was the Denver omelets again. My senior year it was St. Louis vs. Tennessee and I didn’t get to see the menu as I was attending a Super Bowl party and we just ordered pizza.

Reminiscing on all this made me think as to what you would offer to eat for the current Super Bowl contenders. For Seattle, I was thinking something along the lines of salmon, whether smoked or grilled. Of course you would have to supplement it with some flavored coffees, but that would be up to the individual. My problem is that I can’t quite think of anything good to represent Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh’s primary representation has always been steel and a very blue-collar city. A singular cuisine has not necessarily been their forte. So I forced to regress back to something like lunch-pail food such as subs. Nothing big like a pohboy, but more like a simple sub. If anyone can think of something more representative of Pittsburgh (Andy?) I’d be curious to hear.

As for the actual game, Mrs. X and I will be rooting for Seattle simply because it feels wrong to support a team from your own division that is a sworn enemy of the hometown boys. I also have ties to Seattle so it’ll be easier for me. However, I feel that our rooting will be in vain and that Pittsburgh will win the game. However, I’ve though lots of things about lots of teams this year and been very wrong many times. Mrs. X actually beat me in our pick ‘em by 12 games. When you throw in the fact that we only pick 5 games a week, it makes me look really bad. I actually finished the season below .500 (.482). So if I think Pittsburgh will win, maybe Seattle will prove me wrong. I certainly wouldn’t mind that.

Monday, January 16, 2006

Dating Easter

Yesterday, at church, the pastor gave a little sermon about reading and studying the Bible. He noted that in general, Southern Baptists rely more on direct Biblical teaching than church tradition than other denominations do (although we too suffer from the “upholding tradition” curse). This got me thinking about something that I read a couple of months ago and have given a lot of thought about: how errors creep into our celebration and understanding of things.

I’m not going to touch on Christmas, which has its own set of problems, but I specifically was thinking about Easter and the days in front of it. Tradition tells us that Jesus entered Jerusalem on Sunday, He was arrested Thursday night after celebrating the Passover with his disciples, He was tried and crucified on Friday and then he rose on Sunday. On the surface, it seems to be very straightforward, however, when you look at it deeper, a key flaw develops. Jesus promised His followers a key sign: the sign of Jonah.

Jonah was thrown off a ship for violating God’s will and spent three days and three nights in the belly of a fish before he repented and was returned to do the job God originally asked him to do. Jesus promised his followers that like Jonah, He would spend three days and three nights in the belly of the Earth before emerging alive again. Yet if we count out the way we celebrate things, the timeline doesn’t match up. Jesus is buried before sundown on Friday (1 day), Friday night (1 day, 1 night), Saturday passes (2 days, 2 nights), and then Jesus rises from the dead on Sunday. You might argue that if Jesus did not arise until after sunup, this would be three days, but it still fails the three days and three nights test.

So what is the answer? Jesus was crucified and was buried on Thursday. This allows Him to stay in the tomb for the full three days and three nights and then arise as the sun breaks on Sunday. Now, I can hear at least a couple of you crying out that the day after Jesus died was the Sabbath so he had to die on Friday. Not so. We must remember that Jesus was also crucified on Passover (Nisan 14). You must also remember that Jewish days begin at sundown so Nisan 14 actually began on Wednesday night and Nisan 15 began on Thursday night. The day after Passover is known as the Feast of Unleavened Bread and it was a holy day for the Jews. Thus it was to be treated in the same manner as a Sabbath no matter what day of the week it fell on. Much like how we celebrate Christmas on whatever day it falls on. It’s always December 25. Thus the Feast of Unleavened Bread is always on Nisan 15 and is to be treated special.

So what actually happened is this: Jesus enters Jerusalem to great acclaim on Nisan 10. He teaches for several days and then has a Passover meal with His disciples at the start of Nisan 14, which was Wednesday evening. That night He retreats to Gethsemane and is arrested. The Sanhedrin meets and convicts Him, handing Him over to Pilate early Thursday morning. Pilate gives in to the crowd and Jesus is crucified. He dies around 3 pm and is taken down shortly after. He is cleaned and buried in the tomb shortly before sundown. He stays there through both holy days and rises from the dead as the sun breaks early Sunday morning (Nisan 17). Thus, when we celebrate Maundy Thursday, we are celebrating His actual death rather than the Last Supper. Of course, I think we should tie the celebration in with Passover every year, but that’s my opinion.