Things are becoming a bit strange in the United States of Canada. With the 2006 elections coming up and the Democratic Party desperate for any kind of pick up, you would think they would be fully formed on the attack against Jesusland: gas prices are up, people are getting frustrated with the War in Iraq, and Republicans are getting lapse and corrupt (or more corrupt than your average politician). Instead, we are seeing the beginnings of a major civil war.
On Monday, Markos Zuniga, operator of the left wing site Daily Kos, announced a new initiative where he would take on and destroy the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). For those of you not familiar with them, the DLC a center-left group that tries to push the party more towards the mainstream middle of the road voters. They are most famous for launching Bill Clinton up to national prominence, from which he was able to win the presidency. Most of the prominent members are mid-western and southern politicians such as Evan Bayh and Mark Warner. Hillary Clinton has recently been cozying up to them as well as an attempt to move her image more to the political center. Kos’ complaint is that the DLC is moving more to the right and might as well be Republican for all he’s concerned. So, in his mind at least, this is a purification of the party during the lean times so that the Democrats will be unified for the 2006 elections.
On the surface, this might seem like the amusing rantings of one person, but the danger for Democrats is quite real. Kos has announced that the formal unveiling of the war will begin on Labor Day and he has apparently kept quite mum about the tactics and methods. The danger is who is backing him. Kos almost certainly wouldn’t have been so outspoken about this unless he had the backing of organizations like MoveOn.org and the like. That means he has money behind him and money will summon named people. It could even attract DNC chairman Howard Dean, whom, I imagine, doesn’t like seeing a second group that might challenge his position of power.
Whatever the plan, I don’t expect Kos to win the war. He has come up short on most of his escapades before and the DLC is well financed. But the attack will probably result in the loss of money combating each side while the Republicans just sit back and wait to see who emerges from the fray.
The only good things that may come out of this is that one side may become so disgusted with each other that they leave the Democratic Party and form a new party. That might allow the centrist factions to take over and form a legitimate middle of the road party that would appeal to people like me.
The other good thing is that the site Little Green Footballs has been posting photoshoped images of Kos’ head on Dr. Evil’s body with various amusing quotes. Quite funny actually.
Friday, August 26, 2005
Thursday, August 04, 2005
2006 Senate Considerations
I know its way too early for this, but the recent election around here got me thinking about the Republican’s desire to win the supermajority in the Senate. So I looked at who was up for reelection and who would be vulnerable. The answers are very interesting.
Democrats are defending 18 seats to the 15 being defended by Republicans (this count assumes Jim Jeffords to be with the Democratic Party). As in all Senate elections, a number of seats are safe and some are in trouble. I’ll stick with the possible ones to avoid useless clutter:
1) Jim Jeffords (I-VT) is retiring. His seat will probably go to the Democrats so there is no real race here unless the GOP decides to waste a lot of money for principle’s sake.
2) Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI). Mr. Chaffee is a Democrat in Republican clothing. This is the only reason why he’ll probably win reelection. The Democrats are throwing people at him, but his family is still very popular in Rhode Island. I think they would have a better chance to let him win easily and then convince him to switch parties.
3) George Allen (R-VA). If the Democratic governor (Mark Warner) were running, Mr. Allen would be a lot of hot water, but Mr. Warner is gearing up for the 2008 Presidential race and isn’t wasting money. Mr. Allen should be able to survive other opponents.
4) Rick Santorum (R-PA). This is the first real trouble spot. Pennsylvania is moderate to liberal and Santorum is very conservative. He’s also going to be going up against a very popular Democrat. The only thing that could save him is if he gets Arlen Specter to seriously campaign for him and Mr. Specter is still recovering from cancer treatment. I seriously expect a party switch here.
5) Bill Nelson (D-FL). If Mr. Nelson were going up against Jeb Bush, the contest would be over. But the leading candidate for the GOP is Katherine Harris (yes, that Katherine Harris) so the race falls back into 50-50 range. This will be a very bloody fight and will probably require personal visits by President Bush to take this seat.
6) Mike De(s)wine (R-OH). Dewine could have won reelection easily, but he torqued off conservatives in Ohio with his membership in the gang of 14. He will be forced to spend money fending off more conservative primary candidates. If he survives that, he will do better because it appears that the Democrats are just going to throw Fingerhut forward again. But if the Democrats can find a stronger candidate and Dewine suffers badly in the primaries, the seat could be free to steal.
7) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The GOP has vowed to go after this relatively weak freshman senator, but they’ve been unable to grab a strong candidate. Stabenow will probably retain the seat unless labor openly revolts, which is unlikely.
8) Herb Kohl (D-WI). Normally this wouldn’t even be a contest, but former governor and HHS secretary, Tommy Thomson may try for this seat. If he does, the race moves to a toss up due to Thomson’s still high popularity in Wisconsin.
9) Robert Byrd (D-WV). Byrd has not committed as to whether he will run again and he is getting up there in years. If he chooses to run, he’ll probably win reelection, but if the seat is free this is a seat that could easily become Republican.
10) Ben Nelson (D-NE). Nelson treads a very careful line not to tick off his conservative constituents. But the Nebraska Republicans have not been able to coalesce around a strong candidate. If Nelson makes a wrong move or the GOP pulls a strong candidate out of it’s hat, this seat could switch.
11) Kent Conrad (D-ND). Conrad is quite popular but his state is very red. If things get too sour in Washington with the Democratic Party and the Republicans find a strong candidate, they might be able to take this seat.
12) Mark Dayton (D-MN). Dayton is not running and the Minnesota Democratic party has been bleeding badly every since the death of Paul Wellstone. The Republicans will make a strong push for this seat in a blue state and could win it if the Democrats don’t get their act together. Nominating Al Franken probably would not be best move in that direction (yes, he has mentioned running for the seat).
13) Conrad Burns (R-MT). Burns was almost taken down in 2000 and the Democrats have made serious inroads in Montana. However, his 2000 challenger has decided not to run against him and he is a little more prepared this time. Burns will probably survive with room to spare.
There has been idle talk about serious challenges to Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Daniel Akaka (D-HI), but neither candidate is seen as being in any kind of trouble. If the Republicans want to make more inroads towards the 60 seats, they can’t lose anyone besides Santorum, whom I think is a dead man walking. If they only lose this seat, I believe they can pick up several more seats. Minnesota, Florida, and Nebraska are strong possibilities, while Wisconsin and West Virginia are longer shots. But, I would be very surprised if the Republicans picked up all of these. If, somehow, the GOP did secure all these for 59 seats, I would expect some serious plums to be dangled for a Democrat to turn. Most of the focus would probably be directed at a southern Democrat, such as Mary Landrieu (D-LA) or Mark Pryor (D-AR). But if Joe Lieberman (D-CT) receives too much flak from within his own party for the nomination this year, some cautious overtures may be made in his direction as well.
Democrats are defending 18 seats to the 15 being defended by Republicans (this count assumes Jim Jeffords to be with the Democratic Party). As in all Senate elections, a number of seats are safe and some are in trouble. I’ll stick with the possible ones to avoid useless clutter:
1) Jim Jeffords (I-VT) is retiring. His seat will probably go to the Democrats so there is no real race here unless the GOP decides to waste a lot of money for principle’s sake.
2) Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI). Mr. Chaffee is a Democrat in Republican clothing. This is the only reason why he’ll probably win reelection. The Democrats are throwing people at him, but his family is still very popular in Rhode Island. I think they would have a better chance to let him win easily and then convince him to switch parties.
3) George Allen (R-VA). If the Democratic governor (Mark Warner) were running, Mr. Allen would be a lot of hot water, but Mr. Warner is gearing up for the 2008 Presidential race and isn’t wasting money. Mr. Allen should be able to survive other opponents.
4) Rick Santorum (R-PA). This is the first real trouble spot. Pennsylvania is moderate to liberal and Santorum is very conservative. He’s also going to be going up against a very popular Democrat. The only thing that could save him is if he gets Arlen Specter to seriously campaign for him and Mr. Specter is still recovering from cancer treatment. I seriously expect a party switch here.
5) Bill Nelson (D-FL). If Mr. Nelson were going up against Jeb Bush, the contest would be over. But the leading candidate for the GOP is Katherine Harris (yes, that Katherine Harris) so the race falls back into 50-50 range. This will be a very bloody fight and will probably require personal visits by President Bush to take this seat.
6) Mike De(s)wine (R-OH). Dewine could have won reelection easily, but he torqued off conservatives in Ohio with his membership in the gang of 14. He will be forced to spend money fending off more conservative primary candidates. If he survives that, he will do better because it appears that the Democrats are just going to throw Fingerhut forward again. But if the Democrats can find a stronger candidate and Dewine suffers badly in the primaries, the seat could be free to steal.
7) Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The GOP has vowed to go after this relatively weak freshman senator, but they’ve been unable to grab a strong candidate. Stabenow will probably retain the seat unless labor openly revolts, which is unlikely.
8) Herb Kohl (D-WI). Normally this wouldn’t even be a contest, but former governor and HHS secretary, Tommy Thomson may try for this seat. If he does, the race moves to a toss up due to Thomson’s still high popularity in Wisconsin.
9) Robert Byrd (D-WV). Byrd has not committed as to whether he will run again and he is getting up there in years. If he chooses to run, he’ll probably win reelection, but if the seat is free this is a seat that could easily become Republican.
10) Ben Nelson (D-NE). Nelson treads a very careful line not to tick off his conservative constituents. But the Nebraska Republicans have not been able to coalesce around a strong candidate. If Nelson makes a wrong move or the GOP pulls a strong candidate out of it’s hat, this seat could switch.
11) Kent Conrad (D-ND). Conrad is quite popular but his state is very red. If things get too sour in Washington with the Democratic Party and the Republicans find a strong candidate, they might be able to take this seat.
12) Mark Dayton (D-MN). Dayton is not running and the Minnesota Democratic party has been bleeding badly every since the death of Paul Wellstone. The Republicans will make a strong push for this seat in a blue state and could win it if the Democrats don’t get their act together. Nominating Al Franken probably would not be best move in that direction (yes, he has mentioned running for the seat).
13) Conrad Burns (R-MT). Burns was almost taken down in 2000 and the Democrats have made serious inroads in Montana. However, his 2000 challenger has decided not to run against him and he is a little more prepared this time. Burns will probably survive with room to spare.
There has been idle talk about serious challenges to Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Daniel Akaka (D-HI), but neither candidate is seen as being in any kind of trouble. If the Republicans want to make more inroads towards the 60 seats, they can’t lose anyone besides Santorum, whom I think is a dead man walking. If they only lose this seat, I believe they can pick up several more seats. Minnesota, Florida, and Nebraska are strong possibilities, while Wisconsin and West Virginia are longer shots. But, I would be very surprised if the Republicans picked up all of these. If, somehow, the GOP did secure all these for 59 seats, I would expect some serious plums to be dangled for a Democrat to turn. Most of the focus would probably be directed at a southern Democrat, such as Mary Landrieu (D-LA) or Mark Pryor (D-AR). But if Joe Lieberman (D-CT) receives too much flak from within his own party for the nomination this year, some cautious overtures may be made in his direction as well.
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Good or Bad Thing?
So last night I got a new congressperson. Ms. Schmidt (R) narrowly defeated Mr. Hackett (D) in a race that is sure to ping on a couple of radar screens. The vote was close with Ms. Schmidt beating Mr. Hackett by about 3,500 votes out of about 112,000 cast (51.6 - 48.4). In the past 30 years, only one Democrat has ever won an election for the second district of Ohio and Mr. Portman (the previous representative) consistently throttled his token opponents with upwards of 70% of the vote.
So, should Ohio Democrats be encouraged by their good standing? Well, yes and no. Yes it was a good run and I think the Democrats have a very good chance to recapture the governorship in 2006, especially if they nominate Coleman, but with as many circumstances working in the Democrats' favor, they could have won this race.
First, turnout was only about 20%. Low turnout will almost always work in the minority's favor, since it only brings out the die hards and political junkies. To remain with the minority party in a heavy majority district usually means you've got a bit of a fire in the belly for your party.
Second, there were almost no other issues on the ballots. There were three school levies on various ballots in our region, but I'm not sure if all three were in District 2. I know that my ballot only covered the congressional race. So that reduces the normal turnout and you revert back to point one.
Third, the attitude of the candidates. After winning the nomination, Mr. Hackett immediately started going door to door and getting his name out. Ms. Schmidt, on the other hand, flew to Washington to meet with Speaker Hassert and have a few gladhanding sessions. She did come back and campaign, but in a very reserved and impersonal way. I know that turned me off immediately.
Fourth, the DNC did a fairly good job of tying Ms. Schmidt to the Taft administration. Governor Taft is currently under investigation concerning a scam involving speculative coin buying with government employee pension money and its also just been disclosed that he spent upwards of $50,000 for golf trips and a few other frivolities. Put simply, Bob Taft's name is close to mud right now (approval ratings are somewhere between 12-20%).
Fifth, there are still a lot of people around here who would have either refused to vote for Ms. Schmidt simply because she's a woman or only voted for Mr. Hackett because he's an Iraqi War veteran. On the surface it does seem a bit transposed from the usual stereotypes.
Given all these considerations, I think Mr. Hackett could have won. Perhaps he would have if he'd had a little more time to get his message out. Either way, in 2006 I expect Mr. Hackett to get renominated for the office, assuming he doesn't turn his eye towards something more local and powerful. I also expect the Democrats to pour a little more money into this district next time around.
So, should Ohio Democrats be encouraged by their good standing? Well, yes and no. Yes it was a good run and I think the Democrats have a very good chance to recapture the governorship in 2006, especially if they nominate Coleman, but with as many circumstances working in the Democrats' favor, they could have won this race.
First, turnout was only about 20%. Low turnout will almost always work in the minority's favor, since it only brings out the die hards and political junkies. To remain with the minority party in a heavy majority district usually means you've got a bit of a fire in the belly for your party.
Second, there were almost no other issues on the ballots. There were three school levies on various ballots in our region, but I'm not sure if all three were in District 2. I know that my ballot only covered the congressional race. So that reduces the normal turnout and you revert back to point one.
Third, the attitude of the candidates. After winning the nomination, Mr. Hackett immediately started going door to door and getting his name out. Ms. Schmidt, on the other hand, flew to Washington to meet with Speaker Hassert and have a few gladhanding sessions. She did come back and campaign, but in a very reserved and impersonal way. I know that turned me off immediately.
Fourth, the DNC did a fairly good job of tying Ms. Schmidt to the Taft administration. Governor Taft is currently under investigation concerning a scam involving speculative coin buying with government employee pension money and its also just been disclosed that he spent upwards of $50,000 for golf trips and a few other frivolities. Put simply, Bob Taft's name is close to mud right now (approval ratings are somewhere between 12-20%).
Fifth, there are still a lot of people around here who would have either refused to vote for Ms. Schmidt simply because she's a woman or only voted for Mr. Hackett because he's an Iraqi War veteran. On the surface it does seem a bit transposed from the usual stereotypes.
Given all these considerations, I think Mr. Hackett could have won. Perhaps he would have if he'd had a little more time to get his message out. Either way, in 2006 I expect Mr. Hackett to get renominated for the office, assuming he doesn't turn his eye towards something more local and powerful. I also expect the Democrats to pour a little more money into this district next time around.
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