Electoral College Fun

Despite the various espousements from both campaigns, the electoral map is unlikely to change much from the two that we have seen in 2000 and 2004. In fact, I was checking a couple of things out and came up with a vary amusing scenario.

The various state polls are currently showing an electoral map very similar to that of the kind that Mr. Bush beat Mr. Gore with:

Mr. Bush beat Mr. Gore 271-267. If one applied the current electoral college breakdown to that map, Mr. Bush would have beaten Mr. Gore 278-260.

Now, there are three small differences in the current polling from the above map. Mr. McCain is currently leading (within the margin of error) in Michigan while Mr. Obama is leading just outside the margin of error in New Hampshire and Colorado. For amusement (and to reflect my own inklings on how the race will go), lets say that that Michigan swings to Mr. Obama and New Hampshire swings to Mr. McCain. This would make the electoral map exactly like the one in 2000, except that Mr. Obama wins Colorado:

Colorado has 9 electoral votes so the net result is a 269-269 tie. This would push the election into the hands of the House of Representatives where every state delegation gets one vote. In the House, I believe that Democrats control the majority of the state delegations: 26-22 with 2 states split evenly.

Now, adding another fun wrinkle is the fact that Nebraska and Maine do not award their electoral votes winner take all. Two votes go to the overall winner and then one vote is awarded based on who wins each congressional district (3 for Nebraska and 2 for Maine). While there is little chance that Nebraska and Maine will switch overall, it has been noted that Mr. McCain is polling ahead in Maine's second district and Mr. Obama is only a little behind in Nebraska's third district. So it is not out of the question that the race could seem to be tied, only to find out that one candidate has taken a stray vote available to them and has won the contest 270-268.

Such are the fun and games of electoral college math. Of course, much will probably change as we get closer to November, but its fun to see where we could go.