Obama Accending

Is it over? Well, if you wanted to get technical, it has probably been over for a while, but Ms. Clinton’s last best hope is fading quickly. The numbers I predicted and those that her camp had hoped for would have registered some sort of backlash against Mr. Obama from his supporters over the flap with Rev. Wright, Mr. Ayers, etc. Instead, Mr. Obama got a victory in North Carolina that went right down the demographic lines we have come to expect and a better than expected showing in Indiana.

Held in a vacuum, Ms. Clinton probably would have won Indiana by closer to 5 points as it’s demographics are similar to Ohio. However, Ms. Clinton lost voters who she would normally carry from South Bend and Gary. Mr. Obama’s popularity with younger voters and the strong influence of the Chicago media market seem to be the primary reasons for Mr. Obama’s strength in these areas.

With that twist put on things, it appears that the same divide that has appeared in the Democratic electorate a number of weeks ago are still there. However the numbers are now such that Ms. Clinton is very unlikely to convince the remaining 270+ Superdelegates that she should be the nominee. Mr. Obama has guaranteed that he will win the pledged delegate battle (his estimated lead is 165 delegates) and he is likely to win the popular vote as well. He is currently leading by over 700,000 votes and even if one factors Florida and Michigan in, Ms. Clinton only narrows the gap to about 100,000 votes.

Now, Ms. Clinton is going to rack up a very substantial victory in West Virginia next week and she’ll hold serve in Kentucky while losing moderately in Oregon. However, unless she couples a West Virginia annihilation with a similar bloodfest in Puerto Rico, it is unlikely that Ms. Clinton will make a credible argument even in the popular vote totals.

I’m guessing that Ms. Clinton will stick around until all the contests are over and maybe even until after the rules committee makes their formal decision on the Florida and Michigan question, but I think there is little doubt that Mr. Obama will be recognized at the Democratic nominee by July 4th at the latest.