This is the Song that Never Ends

Despite the incessant drumming, tomorrow’s results will no overt effect on either campaign. Mr. Obama is still in the lead and while two losses would be a nasty punch in the ribs, it won’t kill him. Likewise for Ms. Clinton. She’ll hear screaming for her to get out of the race if she loses both Indiana and North Carolina, but she will soldier on with good tidings just over the horizon.

My own feeling is of a split. Ms. Clinton will win Indiana. I think somewhere in the 5-7 point range is likely based on the polling I’ve seen and trends in the late-breaking deciders. Mr. Obama will win North Carolina as well. I see an 8-10 point win for him. Realistically, if he wins by any less than that, it will be seen as a sign that he is starting to bleed heavily. He should be winning this state by upwards of 12-15 points given the demographics, but there is no question that he is wounded at the moment.

Meanwhile, Ms. Clinton is looking at a couple of good contests in the next two weeks. She may win West Virginia by over 20 points if the demographics of the bordering states are any key to the nature of the state and she should cruise to a better than 10 point win in Kentucky. Mr. Obama will take Oregon, but if he wins by less than 5 it is likely to be more bad news for him.

I envision Mr. Dean and his associates to be close to pulling their hair completely out by the end of the month of May. We’ll have to see what tidings the month of June begins.