The Slow Road

Slowly, bit-by-bit, Mr. Obama has been adding Superdelegates to his list. He is now ahead of Ms. Clinton and is clearly moving to ensure that he has all that he needs when he declares victory (strongly suspected to be May 20th after he wins the Oregon primary). Ms. Clinton will probably not concede that victory until after the Puerto Rico primary and the meeting of the rules committee regarding Florida and Michigan’s delegates.

One interesting thing to watch will be how the media and the Obama Campaign spin his loss in West Virginia tomorrow. It’s no real secret that he is going to lose and lose by a significant margin. However, I don’t think many people are fully prepared for how large a loss it could be. Based on both the demographics of the state relative to those in surrounding states and current polling, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Mr. Obama could lose to Ms. Clinton by 40 points. A number this high is probably unlikely, but a loss of more than 30 points is certainly likely. This result would only serve to bring embarrassing focus on Mr. Obama’s inability to secure working-class white voters.

Now, Mr. Obama has many months to get his house in order. Mr. McCain is certainly trying to make inroads, but he is still not overwhelmingly popular among conservatives. It is possible that Mr. McCain will make a fatal mistake trying to reach out to both sides at once. Then, it is likely that Mr. Obama will start seeing those lunch-pail Democrats come back to him. But they are still mistrusting of a perceived white-collar, coastal elitist asking for their vote. Only time will tell if he will rally the party to a crushing Democratic victory or oversee a split that will sink Democratic hopes in November.