A Return to Analysis

The legal issues that arose early this summer have now been almost completely dealt with. I hope to put the last of this to bed in October and then I can deal with the ramifications of all of it.

So in this spirit, I thought I would posit a little bit on the only two races of significance this year: the New Jersey and Virginia governorships. I know that the election of Mr. Kennedy's replacement to the Senate will also take place but there is still a lot of set up there so we won't know who the full field is until later this month.

Virginia turned blue in 2008 and has had a slate of Democratic governors in recent years. However, these have usually been in the traditional Southern Democrat model which is more conservative than their mid-Atlantic cousins. State Senator Creigh Deeds represents the Democrats while former Attorney General Bob McDonnell represents the Republicans. With the past two governorships being Democratic and a general anti-Democrat feeling running due to backlash on healthcare, Mr. McDonnell has been steadily pulling ahead since about early June. The current RCP average has him up 10 points on Mr. Deeds.

Also on the docket is the New Jersey governorship. New Jersey is a reliably Democratic state, although Republicans have been able to win state office though they tend to be a bit more liberal in their outlook. The race is a three-way between Democrat Jon Corzine (incumbent), Republican Chris Christie, and Independent Chris Daggett. More than anything else, the polls indicate a dislike for Mr. Corzine among Independents and this is probably the key on which this race will depend. At the moment it is unclear as to who Mr. Daggett is draining more votes from (Mr. Daggett is a former NJ EPA Commissioner and Deputy chief of staff to the Governor which probably indicates a larger draw of Democrats). As such Mr. Christie has consistently polled ahead, currently holding an RCP average lead of 7 points. However, it should also be noted that New Jersey is a difficult state to poll and many a race has occurred showing a Republican polling ahead, only to lose by a significant margin on Election Day. Mr. Christie will probably only be considered safe if he goes into the day with an 8-point or better lead.

If any other races start to spice up we'll have to see how those go.