PA-12

Yesterday, the representative of PA-12, John Murtha (D), died due to complications from gall bladder surgery. These complications are believed to have been the result of a nicked instestine that allowed infection to set in. Needless to say, a lawsuit by the family is probably in the offering.

PA-12 was expected to be competitive (McCain won the district in 2008) but Mr. Murtha had managed to beat back some very robust challengers over the years. With his death, the race effectively moves into toss-up status. Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to set a date for a special election which must be held no sooner than 60 days after the declared vacancy (yesterday). The expectation is that the special election will be held on May 18, which is already slated as the date for various primaries (effectively saving Pennsylvania a little money).

Two Democrats had declared primary challenges to Mr. Murtha (although neither was expected to do much): Naval officer Ryan Bucchianeri and attorney Ron Mackell. On the Republican side, the two declared candidates were 2008 nominee Tim Burns and Army veteran Bill Russell. No mention has been made, but one would expect the special election to be an open field with all four (or more) candidates on the ballot. It is also possible that party leaders from both sides could simply decide on their candidates (sans primary) and just field two names. Things will become clearer in the coming days.

It has also been pointed out that the death of Mr. Murtha now puts the HealthCare Bill in serious trouble in the House. The first version passed with 220 votes (218 needed for passage). Since then, the lone Republican who voted for it, Joseph Cao, has stated that he will not vote for it again and Robert Wexler (FL-19) has resigned to take another job. With Mr. Murtha's death, there are now only 217 votes, meaning that Ms. Pelosi will have to flip a "no" to pass the bill. In reality, she would have to flip two votes as Neil Abercrombie (HI-1) will be resigning effective Feb. 28.