Bowl Game Headaches

So this is about the time of year that we start plotting who is going to what BCS bowl game. Except that it’s not going to be that easy this year. At the moment, the top 10 teams are:

1. LSU
2. Kansas (undefeated)
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. Ohio St. (finished regular season)
6. Arizona St.
7. Georgia
8. Virginia Tech
9. Oregon
10. Oklahoma

One still cannot predict anything from this list because at least two of these teams will still play each other. Next week Kansas will face Missouri for the Big 12 North crown. After that, the winner will probably play Oklahoma for the overall Big 12 title. LSU and Georgia will also probably square off for the SEC crown (there is a small possibility that Tennessee could get in ahead of Georgia but LSU has already won the SEC West).

The headaches get even bigger when you look at bowl order selection. The national title game is the Sugar Bowl this year. Once the Sugar has taken its two picks, it would normally go Orange, Rose, and then Fiesta. If the Sugar takes from another bowl’s rightful selection (like the Fiesta’s Big 12 champion), then that bowl gets a replacement pick before the other bowls make their picks.

For example, if the list stays the same and LSU wins the SEC and Kansas wins the Big 12, both would go to the Sugar Bowl to face each other. The Sugar Bowl is the nominal bowl for the SEC champ, but the Fiesta would then get a pick to replace Kansas before the selection moves to the Orange. It is possible, that the Fiesta could take Ohio St. (whom they have had 4 times in the last 7 years), rather than letting the Rose Bowl have its traditional Big 10-Pac 10 match up.

Then you have the chaos that comes from upsets coming around. If LSU loses next week to Arkansas, they could still win the SEC, but no longer be in the title game, or Georgia could win the SEC title and be too low in the standings to get to the title game. Kansas could defeat Missouri, but lose to Oklahoma (or Texas if Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma St.) in the Big 12 title game. West Virginia still has to face off against UConn and Pitt and could easily lose either of those games (more likely to UConn). These loses would vault Ohio St. back up to no. 1 or 2 and put them in the title game. Much the same could go for Arizona St. as well.

But, for the moment, we’ll take the easy path and try to plot based on everyone winning what they are supposed to:

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Kansas
Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech.
Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St. vs. Missouri
Rose Bowl: Arizona St. vs. Florida

Florida and Missouri are complete guesses on my part based on the current polls and who would lose in certain match ups. Texas could replace Missouri if Missouri gets beaten badly by Kansas and drops far in the polls. I’m also assuming that Virginia Tech beats Virginia next week and then beats BC in the ACC title game.

Next week will give us a firmer picture, but there is still a very reasonable possibility that Ohio St. could be the title game. In fact, there is even a chance that the Rose Bowl’s Big 10-Pac 10 match up could end up in the Sugar Bowl as the title game if the cards fell right. But that would require a lot of shifting around.