Lifting Mists

In my haste to get back to projecting the major bowls, I completely forgot the rules that were introduced last year. The Sugar Bowl will host the National Championship game a week after the four BCS bowls play. In addition, no conference can have more than two teams in these five games and only the top 14 teams in the BCS poll are eligible. So the projections change a little bit. The BCS standings of eligible teams are as follows:

1. Missouri
2. West Virginia
3. Ohio St.
4. Georgia
5. Kansas
6. Virginia Tech
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Oklahoma
10. Florida
11. Boston College
12. Hawaii
13. Arizona St.
14. Tennessee

The conference champs and match-ups are as follows:

Big 10 – Ohio St.
Big East – West Virginia
ACC – Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Big 12 – Missouri vs. Oklahoma
SEC – LSU vs. Tennessee
Pac 10 – USC (if they beat UCLA, else Arizona St. (if they beat Arizona) or UCLA)

The big question is whether or not Missouri will beat Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. That is the one factor that will determine if the National Championship is West Virginia vs. Missouri or West Virginia vs. Ohio St. West Virginia still has to play Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh is a very poor team this year and the game is at Morgantown so West Virginia has all the advantages.

If Missouri does win, the bowl projections will probably look something like this:

National Title – Missouri vs. West Virginia
Sugar – LSU vs. Hawaii
Orange – Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Rose – Ohio St. vs. USC
Fiesta – Kansas vs. Arizona St.

Georgia, Kansas are in as they are now finished and can only move up in the rankings (the top six poll spots are automatic berths). Hawaii is guaranteed in if they beat Washington, as any non-BCS school that finishes in the top 12 must be granted a berth. This only leaves one at-large spot available. The Big East is not officially tied to a Bowl game (although traditionally the Big East Champ has gone to the Orange Bowl) so only the Fiesta would get an early selection based on the loss of the Big 12 champ. If Arizona St. beats Arizona then the Sun Devils will be high enough in the BCS standings to warrant selection and the possibility of taking a local team will be quite agreeable to the Fiesta folks. The Orange automatically takes the ACC champ and will probably opt for Georgia as they are close and their fans travel well. The Rose gets its traditional Big 10-Pac 10 match up while the Fiesta opts for Kansas over Hawaii. The Sugar then gets the SEC champ and is stuck with Hawaii.

The other major twist is if Missouri loses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. Ohio St. then vaults up and the equation shifts, as it will be the Rose Bowl with the free pick. Illinois is sitting at #15 and will probably move up due to teams above losing their various title games. The Rose Bowl will then probably move to keep its Big 10-Pac 10 match up and select Illinois as the one remaining at-large. Thus the standings would be as follows:

National Title – Ohio St. vs. West Virginia
Sugar – LSU vs. Kansas
Orange – Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Rose – Illinois vs. USC
Fiesta – Oklahoma vs. Hawaii.

The Fiesta Bowl, faced with the possibility of an all Big 12 match up, might opt for Hawaii over Kansas. But Missouri would drop out as they would drop below Kansas in the polls and only two Big 12 teams are allowed. The thing that might upset the Rose Bowl’s plans to take Illinois would be if both the SEC and the ACC title game are upsets and LSU and Virginia Tech fall in the polls, but stay ahead of Illinois (keeping them at #15 in the standings). If this happened, the Rose would probably decide between Hawaii and Kansas, leaving the Fiesta free to take Arizona St.

If Hawaii loses to Washington, they drop out of the BCS picture and Arizona St. and Illinois’ chances look much brighter.