Looking Ahead to 2010

The Politico posted their opinion of the 10 most interesting races for 2010. All of these races are far too early to speculate about, although since some of them are more interesting from a primary standpoint (Rubio vs. Crist) they will get hot soon. However, as I am a political junkie, I figured I would look at the one race that will actually impact me next year: Ohio's Governor's race.

What was going to be a bit more complicated at first, has already shaken out to a more simple equation. Ted Strickland (D) is the incumbent governor and will not face any primary challengers. It had looked like there might be several Republican challengers but most have already dropped out leaving the way almost completely clear for Former Rep. John Kasich.

Polling at this point is essentially meaningless, although Rasmussen did run a poll back in September showing Mr. Kasich with a 1-point lead. All other polling done has shown Mr. Strickland with a lead over the Republican opponent.

Under normal circumstances, I would expect Mr. Strickland to cruise to victory. Ohio has had some tough times, but they are tied into the country as a whole and I haven't seen or heard of anything that has shown any significant anger at the governor. However, these are not normal times. Independents did swing against the incumbent Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey. What's more, the lack of a Presidential contest tends to leave the party in power less motivated to come out and vote. Throw that in with an expected attack by Mr. Kasich that Mr. Strickland has done nothing to keep jobs in Ohio and you are left with some nasty drains against Mr. Strickland's natural popularity.

Many will try to read what happens in this race as some sort of national referendum on the system (so goes Ohio, so goes the US). It might or it might not. We won't know for a while but it's one of many races that I'll let ping my radar.

Update: Quinnipiac has a new poll showing Strickland and Kasich tied at 40.