First BCS Projections

Our match-ups to determine the BCS representatives are all set.

Big 10: Ohio St. has won the conference and is slated to go to the Rose Bowl
Pac 10: Oregon and Oregon St. will decide the title on the field on Dec. 3
Big 12: Texas plays Nebraska for the title on Dec. 5
ACC: Georgia Tech will face off against Clemson in the ACC title game on Dec. 5
Big East: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 will decide the title
SEC: Florida and Alabama square off on Dec. 5

The shake down from this is that similar to what I posted before. The winner of Florida-Alabama will go to the National Title game while the loser goes to the Sugar Bowl. Squaring off for the title will most likely be Texas assuming Texas beats Texas A&M and Nebraska (neither opponent is as good as Texas).

TCU and Boise St. are still undefeated and will probably remain that way. TCU finishes it's season on Nov. 28 and Boise St. has Nevada on Nov. 27 and New Mexico St. on Dec. 5. At the moment I would expect TCU to go to the Fiesta Bowl and Boise St. go to the Sugar. If Texas loses though, TCU could vault ahead to go to the Title game.

ACC and Big East winners are still slated for the Orange Bowl. Should UC beat Pitt, they have an outside shot at the National Title game if both Texas and TCU lose, but that is rather unlikely. That just leaves the at-larges. With USC falling out, I think odds have gone up that the Fiesta Bowl, after taking TCU to replace Texas, will step on the Rose Bowl's toes and take Ohio St. Orange takes ACC vs. Big East, while the Sugar takes Boise St. In that scenario, I would expect the Rose Bowl to take Iowa, both to preserve Big 10 vs. Pac 10, but also in that Iowa would be the next highest BCS team available (the loser of UC-Pitt would probably fall below Iowa).

As such, my bowl projections at the moment are:
National Title: Florida vs. Texas
Fiesta: Ohio St. vs. TCU
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar: Alabama vs. Boise St.
Rose: Oregon vs. Iowa

In the AFC, Indianapolis further cemented their hold on the #1 seed as they now have a 3-game lead on Cincinnati. San Diego is breathing down the Bengals neck at the #3 spot as is New England (#4). All are 7-3 with the divisional records acting as tiebreaker at the moment (5-0, 4-1, and 3-1 respectively). Cincinnati and San Diego play each other in week 15 and should the two teams finish with the same record, that will be the tiebreaker.

The AFC wild cards contenders are Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Denver; all at 6-4. If Houston wins tonight, they will also be 6-4. Jacksonville earns the #5 seed by virtue of their conference record (5-2). Pittsburgh currently earns the #6 by virtue of their head-to-head win against Denver. Should Houston win tonight, Denver earns the #6 seed as Pittsburgh has a worse conference record among the three teams, knocking them out, and Denver has a better divisional record than Houston.

For the NFC, New Orleans and Minnesota are sitting happy in the #1 and #2 seeds. Dallas and Arizona hold the #3 and #4 seeds with Dallas having a better conference record giving them the tiebreak. Philadelphia, Green Bay and the NY Giants are all at 6-4. Conference record gives (as well as a head-to-head match-up) gives the Eagles the #5 and the Packers the #6 at the moment.

New Orleans, Minnesota, and Arizona are all but in now and the remaining games will decide seeding. The East is still open and both Green Bay and Atlanta still have decent shots at the wild card.