Bowl Considerations

The Big-10 only has two games left in the season and the rest of the league has three (not including championships for the Big 12, SEC, and ACC). So I figured to look at the BCS bowls and see how things were shaking out.

Big-10: Ohio St. and Iowa are currently tied with one loss in conference. Ohio St. has a non-conference loss so technically Iowa has the tiebreaker. But they play each other this weekend. The winner will win the Big 10 outright as even with a loss the following week, the winner would have the tiebreaker over both the other and Penn St. Iowa's quarterback was injured in their loss to Northwestern and they are travelling to Columbus so I'm thinking Ohio St. has the advantage.

Pac-10: In the Pac-10, Oregon and Arizona are tied, although Oregon is ranked higher. They play each other in two weeks, although if Arizona wins, they still have to play USC. If USC beat Arizona, and Oregon won out, Oregon would win by virtue of their head-to-head win against USC. Either way, Oregon is the favorite at the moment to go to the Rose Bowl.

ACC: Georgia Tech is running away with the ACC South. Clemson is leading the ACC North but BC is still in the hunt. Clemson has the head-to-head tiebreaker so Clemson actually has a two game lead. Anything can happen in a title game, but I would favor Georgia Tech in a match-up with Clemson.

Big East: Cincinnati is currently tied for the Big East lead with Pittsburgh, although Pittsburgh has a non-conference loss which gives UC the tiebreaker at the moment. But, both teams will play each other in the last game of the season (Dec 5) so the winner will be clearly defined.

Big-12: Texas has effectively locked up the Big-12 South crown as they would have to lose two of their last three (Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M) to give Oklahoma St. even a shot. I don't see that happening. Kansas St. is leading the Big-12 North, although Nebraska is only a half game behind them. They play each other on Nov. 21, which will be K-state's last game of the season. Either way, whether Nebraska or Kansas St., I would look for Texas to win the Big-12 Championship game.

SEC: Alabama and Florida have already won their respective divisions and will meet for the title game on Dec 5.

As far as the actual BCS bowl games, that gets tricky. The Rose Bowl will host the National Championship game this year and assuming that things go as they are expected, it will be the SEC title winner vs. Texas. That will give the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl a free pick. I'm sure the Sugar Bowl will take the SEC title game loser, but the Fiesta Bowl may be interested in snagging Ohio St. away from the Rose Bowl, given Ohio St.'s popularity with that Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl would then get the follow up pick and may be very interested in taking TCU (assuming they stay unbeaten).

The Orange Bowl would then get the next two picks. They automatically get the ACC winner and will probably go for the traditional Big East winner (especially if UC is undefeated, although I don't think they would have a problem with a 1-loss Pittsburgh).

The Sugar Bowl is next. Having already taken the SEC title loser, the Sugar Bowl might opt for Boise St. Per the BCS rules, no conference can have more than 2 teams in the five BCS games and the top six teams in the BCS rankings get automatic berths unless this rule is violated or spots run out. TCU is currently no. 4 and Boise St. is no. 6. Assuming these two teams stay undefeated, they will have to go to a BCS bowl. With TCU going to the Fiesta Bowl, Boise St. would be an interesting option. However, it is also possible that the Sugar Bowl will turn it's nose up on Boise St. and give it's open spot to USC (especially if USC wins out but doesn't win the Pac-10).

If that happens, Boise St. would have to go to the Rose Bowl and play the Pac-10 winner. If the Sugar Bowl opted to take Boise St., the Rose Bowl would get the Pac-10 winner and a free at large pick. LSU is out because the SEC would already have two entries. If they win their last two games, the Rose Bowl might take Penn St., keeping the Pac-10 vs. Big-10 rivalry alive. This is especially true if the Rose Bowl is comparing a potential 10-2 Penn St. and a 10-2 Miami (Fl). Under no circumstances would the Rose Bowl consider USC as an all Pac-10 match-up would be horrible for them.

We also cannot rule out the possibility that the Fiesta Bowl would grab USC instead of Ohio St. to play TCU. If that happened, the Sugar Bowl would probably step on the Rose Bowl's toes and take Ohio St., leaving the Rose Bowl with the Pac-10 winner and Boise St.