NFL Divisional Round 2017

I went 2-2 in the first round, although had I known that Oakland was going to be playing a third string QB, I would have probably opted for Houston, even though their offense is not great. Green Bay, on the other hand, just plain whooped the Giants much to my surprise.

So we move on to the Divisional Round where the #1 and #2 seeds have had a week off to prepare.

Saturday, January 14, 4:30 - #3 Seattle at #2 Atlanta - Seattle did well in their first game, dispatching the Lions without much fuss. Seattle and Atlanta are somewhat similar teams in the fact that they are so unpredictable. Seattle usually has a good defense and it's just a question of whether their offense will be able to do anything. Atlanta meanwhile has a pretty good offense and a middling at best defense. So they need to keep pace with their opponents to stay in. On the few times that they do make some stands on defense, they win handily.

I think Seattle has a chance, but they are such a different team away from home. Playing in a dome will help and I think their defense will keep the Falcons on the wrong foot, perhaps even giving them a turnover or two. I even think the lack of good defense by Atlanta will allow Seattle to score aplenty. But you can't live on impossible catches and I think Atlanta has too many weapons in the long term. I'm guessing a closer game than expected, but I'd still favor the home team.

Pick: Atlanta

Saturday, January 14, 8:15 - #4 Houston at #1 New England - Houston actually played New England earlier in the season and got destroyed. I'd like to think that Houston has a bit more pride than that and will hang better this time around, but I don't see much hope for them. Houston's offense is middling and while New England does not have a great defense, it will stymie the Texans. Houston does have the #1 offense, but unlike previous years, New England's offense is not suffering from a bunch of injuries. Brady will have a bevy of weapons to use and while they may have to settle for field goals a few times, I don't see them making the critical mistakes that Houston desperately needs to stay in this. I also see Tom Brady on a mission to personally spit in Roger Goodell's face as he hands him the Lombardi Trophy and this is the first step in that quest.

Pick: New England

Sunday, January 15, 4:30 - #4 Green Bay at #1 Dallas - I would love to see Green Bay beat Dallas. They've been on the edge of elimination for nearly two months now and have more walking wounded than any team in the playoffs while Dallas is at nearly 100% and been more or less handed a spot in the Super Bowl since October. But there is a reason for that. Dallas is good. Their QB and RB get most of the ink, but the Dallas offensive line is second to none in the NFL and that is huge. Their defense isn't bad either, although it's not the killer that one would expect. I expect Green Bay to put up a fight, but I think fatigue and injuries are just going to doom the Packers in the end.

Pick: Dallas

Sunday, January 15, 8:00 - #3 Pittsburgh at #2 Kansas City - Again, I want the other team to win so bad that I would love to pick against Pittsburgh just out of spite. But the Steelers did to Miami exactly what I expected and Kansas City is built in many of the same ways. They have a better defense than Miami and they will have a nice home field advantage in Arrowhead, but the Chiefs are heavily dependent on a strong running game and the Steelers do a pretty good job of containing it. The Chiefs have the weapons to beat the Steelers through the air, but I'm skeptical of them being able to use them enough. I'd bet on a grind fest here and grinds work well for teams used to playing bloodied.

Pick: Pittsburgh