There were a couple of close calls and a few odd turnouts but the field is set for the playoffs so it's time for me to make all my very wrong guesses.
Byes:
AFC: #1 Denver Broncos, #2 New England Patriots
NFC: #1 Carolina Panthers, #2 Arizona Cardinals
Game 1: #5 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Houston Texans
The Chiefs have to be annoyed right now. Both the Bengals and the Chargers came rather close to knocking off the Broncos in the last two weeks of the regular season, which would have given the Chiefs the division title and a home game. A bye was out of reach, but it would have been nice to play at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, they are riding a hot streak right now. Houston hit their apex right after the bye when they beat the Bengals on Monday night and then went on a bit of a hot streak. Still, they are not the pushover team many expected the AFC South champion to be. But it would be foolish to go against the Chiefs right now. This is also the Chiefs' first opportunity to finally get rid of the bad taste of the loss to Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs two years ago, when they allowed Indy to come back from a 28-point deficit.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Game 2: #6 Pittsburgh Steelers at #3 Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers did what they had to do in beating Cleveland and the NY Jets obliged by laying down against Buffalo. The Bengals meanwhile looked okay in beating the Ravens but still needed Denver to go down. Andy Dalton got his cast off this week but no announcement has been made about whether he will be available to play. Likewise, Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams is listed as day to day. Neither team is likely to be playing at full strength and given both coach's tendency to make odd calls in the situation, this game will likely come down to who makes the least number of mistakes. In this case, since it is likely that McCarron will be starting, I'm inclined to give the veteran Ben Rothlesburger the edge. Yes, he makes poor decisions and is also banged up, but the Steelers have proven themselves in pressure situations in the recent past with a lineup similar to this one. The Bengals have the weight of four previous one and dones on them and I will only believe it when I see it.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Game #3: #6 Seattle Seahawks at #3 Minnesota Vikings
There are two questions in this game: Will Adrian Peterson be able to run on Seattle and will the Minnesota defense be able to contain the Seattle offense? When they last met, Seattle blew the doors off Minnesota in Minnesota and the answer to both questions was no. If Seattle can repeat that strategy, they should win easily. Minnesota will adjust but if AP in contained, I don't see Teddy Bridgewater as being good enough to keep the offense on the field and prevent the defense from getting worn out. I think this game will be closer, but Seattle has been on a hot streak aside from the speed bump against the Rams. I won't pick against them just yet.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Game #4: #5 Green Bay Packers at #4 Washington Redskins
Like the AFC South, Washington has emerged as a bit better than the pushover we expected the NFC East winner to be. Likewise, Green Bay can't seem to get their act together for any stretch of games. They can beat bad teams, but they haven't had a good win since they beat the Vikings in Minnesota before Thanksgiving. However, Washington kept pulling out squeekers against sub-500 teams. They won by ten against the Bills but otherwise haven't faced a good team since they got destroyed by Carolina also right before Thanksgiving. The home field will help but the bright lights are going to expose nerves. Rodgers and company has been in this situation before and that might be enough to overcome the deficiencies that have come up with all the injuries. Washington can win this game and many people will probably pick them to do so, but like with Pittsburgh, I'm going with experience in the first round.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
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