Iran's Plans

Someone made an interesting comment on the blog lgf the other day that got me thinking. This person noted that the President of Iran, Ahmadinejad, sent President Bush a letter a little while back encouraging him to convert to Islam. There was something in the letter about having 90 days to think about it. The 90 days expire on August 8. Then, Iran has stated that they will respond to the West’s proposals on their nuclear program on August 22.

Now, someone looked through and noted that August 22 corresponds to the end of the Islamic month and that there is something regarding this month and the supposed return of the 12th Imam. Ahmadinejad is well known to be a great believer in this prophecy and believes that the event is imminent. I believe he even gave a speech (maybe his UN speech) where he announced that it would happen within 2 years. Then, there was another speech he gave yesterday where he announced that there would be great rejoicing among the Muslim community very soon.

This has led some to speculate that the Iranians are planning something big. The 12th Imam is supposed to return in the midst of worldwide chaos and war. He will rally the Muslims to him and then proceed to conquer the world. I don’t believe the Iranians thought that Israel would respond in such an aggressive manner to their proxy Hezbollah’s actions and they are now backpedaling. The Iranians are probably trying very hard to move up the timetable of whatever it is they were planning in the first place. I would suspect that it might heavily involve Syria and possibly Jordan though.

Iran has a sizable and reasonably well-trained army, but their air force leaves something to be desired. If they tried to push through any part of Iraq towards Israel, they would meet a nasty obstacle in the US Army, even if it were caught flat-footed by the sudden launching of an invasion force. Plus, the shortest route would be through northern Iraq and the Kurds would play havoc with the Iranian supply lines, to say nothing of what the American Air Force would do. So, we can put things to bed regarding the Iranian army moving against Israel. They might come out and try and hit the US Army, but I think the bulk of their might would be used in supplies that they have funneled into Syria. Syria could try for a lightning strike with WMDs and a ground force. If Jordan got in, and I’m still not sure how they would do it without a coup-de-tat, that would put two conventional armies striking towards the center of Israel while the majority of Israel’s army was spread to the two wings of the country. This could force Israel into using non-conventional weapons and it would certainly trigger the chaos that Ahmadinejad desires, although I have my doubts about the appearance of the 12th Imam.

Either way, I suspect that Iran will be throwing a gas balloon on this fire in the next two to four weeks. Something to watch for.